Os desafios negociadores dos BRICS: coalizão e coesão?


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Pedro Lara de Arruda. Researcher at the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) Poverty Practice, Bureau for Development Policy, UNDP.
Apresentação feita na Palestra "Os desafios negociadores dos BRICS: Coalizão e coesão" na UCB

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Os desafios negociadores dos BRICS: coalizão e coesão?

  1. 1. Pedro Lara de Arruda. Researcher at the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) Poverty Practice, Bureau for Development Policy, UNDP.
  2. 2.  “Large, fast-growing developing economies and significant influence on regional and global affairs; all five are G-20 members. As of 2013, the five BRICS countries represent almost 3 billion people, with a combined nominal GDP of US$14.8 trillion, and an estimated US$4 trillion in combined foreign reserves. Presently, South Africa holds the chair of the BRICS group. The BRICS have received both praise and criticism from numerous quarters” (BRICS Summit, 2013)
  3. 3.      2006 – New York informal meeting 2009 – Yekaterinburg Focus on “means of improving the global economic situation and reforming financial institutions, and discussed how the four countries could better co-operate in the future.” (2009) 2010 – Brasília With the presence of President Obama in the aftermath of his Nuclear Summit, the Focus was on Iran and further cooperation on technical areas (close to the IBSA initiative). Unofficially, there was much US-led pressure for the valorization of the Chinese Yen.
  4. 4.       2011 – Sanya Focus on demanding China to import noncommodities also; on the conclusion of the UN anti-terrorist framework; against NATO on the Lybian crisis; and in favour of national currencies as trade mediums 2012 – New Delhi Focus on the proposal for creating a BRICS Bank 2013 – Durban Focus on the launching of the BRICS Bank and means for promoting development and investment in Africa. It also settled official Think Tanks for the BRICS.
  5. 5.  “A number of cooperation mechanisms have been developed for deepening intra-BRICS cooperation. Meetings of BRICS trade and economic ministers, agriculture ministers, health ministers, senior officials on science and technology, a contact group on economic and trade issues, and other such meetings have been useful in this regard. Regular meetings of foreign ministers and finance ministers are a feature on the BRICS calendar” (Sudhir Vyas, MEA, India).
  6. 6.  “Consumer expenditure in BRICS countries as a percentage of gross domestic product ranges from 35 per cent to 61 per cent, and there is a strong and growing middle class, with rising levels of income.” (Sudhir Vyas, MEA, India).
  7. 7.  In terms of political influence, Russia and China are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and all BRICS members play a prominent role in leading international organisations: the UN, the G20, the G8, the Non-Aligned Movement, the G77.
  8. 8.       In regional terms, Russia is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Community. Russia and China are members of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. Brazil is a member of the Union of South American Nations and Mercosur. South Africa is a member of the African Union and the South African Development Community. India is a member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
  9. 9.  Only thirty cities account for half the world’s total real estate investment volumes. The top five cities alone – London, Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong and Paris – account for nearly onequarter of volumes. Shanghai, Beijing, Moscow, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have all become top-30 investment destinations since 2008, while the BRICS’ overall contribution to global real estate investment volumes has increased from less than one percent in 2004 to nearly 10 percent in 2011.
  10. 10.   Commodity Exporters vs. Commodity Importers?? Permanent seat on the UNSC?? (Nitin Desay, former Under-secretary-general, UN)
  11. 11.  Table 1: 2011 BRICS Sanya Summit Selected Priority Commitments for Compliance Assessment Priority Area Commitments Selected and Assessed for Compliance (n = 5) International Financial System Reform [13] Recognizing that the international financial crisis has exposed the inadequacies and deficiencies of the existing international monetary and financial system, we support the reform and improvement of the international monetary system, with a broad-based international reserve currency system providing stability and certainty. Finance: Commodity Markets [14] We support the international community in strengthening cooperation to ensure stability and strong development of physical market by reducing distortion and further regulate financial market. Climate Change: Cancun Agreements [17] We support the Cancun Agreements. Development: NEPAD [28] We support infrastructure development in Africa and its industrialization within framework of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). Trade: Trade Cooperation [30] [We have agreed to continue further expanding and deepening] trade [cooperation among our countries]. Source: (2012 BRICS New Delhi Summit Comlience Report)
  12. 12.  Table 2: 2011 BRICS Sanya Summit Compliance Scores Commitment Brazil Russia India China South Africa Average Score Average Percentage 1 International Financial System Reform [13] 0 0 +1 +1 -1 +0.2 60% 2 Finance: Commodity Markets [14] +1 0 +1 0 0 +0.4 70% 3 Climate Change: Cancun Agreements [17] +1 +1 +1 0 +1 +0.8 90% 4 Development: NEPAD [28] +1 0 +1 +1 0 +0.6 80% 5 Trade: Trade Cooperation [30] 0 0 +1 +1 0 +0.4 70% Average score +0.6 +0.2 +1 +0.6 0 0.48
  13. 13.  Voto comum do BRICS no UNSC 2011. Ex: Líbia. (Sudhir Vyas, MEA, India)
  14. 14.      Dilma Roussef (Brazil): “we are willing and able to help, while there is still time, those countries where the crisis is already acu-te.” (…) “It is clear that, right now, the priority of the world economy must be resolving the problem of those countries facing sovereign debt crises and turning back the current recessive tide. The developed countries must put in place coordinated policies to stimulate the economies that are extremely weakened by the crisis.” Dmitry Medvedev (Russia): “(…)politicians whose views were formed after the Cold war (…) I believe that one such idea could be implemented very shortly: to include the currencies of BRICS countries in the IMF SDR basket.” Mammohan Singh (India): “As large and diverse societies, we are vulnerable to new and emerging threats to our security. It is our duty to our citizens that we cooperate in the fight against terrorism, extremism and intolerance and other non-traditional threats like piracy”. Hu Jintao (China): “(…)we should continue to deepen practical cooperation, vigorously tap our cooperation potential in economy, trade, health and sister-city relationships, and strive for fruitful results of our cooperation in various fields so as to further strengthen the economic and social foundation for BRICS cooperation.” Jacob Zuma (South Africa): “The BRICS countries in general have a large savings pool, whereas the African continent is ready for large-scale investments. Over the next 10 years, Africa will need $480 billion for infrastructure development, which should interest the BRICS business communities. Africa is projected as the third fastest-growing economy in the world, while the BRICS countries now constitute the largest trading partners of Africa and largest new investors.”