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Human development policy and local opportunities evidence from brazilian municipalities ursula mattioli mello

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Human development policy and local opportunities: evidence from Brazilian municipalities by IPC-IG research assistant Ursula Mattioli Mello

Human development policy and local opportunities: evidence from Brazilian municipalities by IPC-IG research assistant Ursula Mattioli Mello

Published in: Technology, Economy & Finance

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  • 1. Human development policy and local opportunities: evidence from Brazilian municipalities Ursula Mattioli Mello This paper is part of my bachelor thesis developed under the supervision of Professor Ana Maria Hermeto (CEDEPLAR/UFMG) Brasília July 2013
  • 2. • Motivation • Literature review – Anti-poverty policy – Brazilian scenario – Local social policy • Descriptive analysis – Opportunity index – Municipal expenditure • Regression model • Concluding remarks AGENDA AGENDA
  • 3. • Motivation • Literature review – Anti-poverty policy – Brazilian scenario – Local social policy • Descriptive analysis – Opportunity index – Municipal expenditure • Regression model • Concluding remarks AGENDA AGENDA
  • 4. • Deep social transformation in Brazil • “Poverty reduction without economic growth”(Ferreira, Leite & Ravallion, 2007) • The role of social policy • New clusters for policy • Human development policy MOTIVATION MOTIVATION
  • 5. • Motivation • Literature review – Anti-poverty policy – Brazilian scenario – Local social policy • Descriptive analysis – Opportunity index – Municipal expenditure • Regression model • Concluding remarks AGENDA AGENDA
  • 6. POVERTY, GROWTH AND INEQUALITY LITERATURE REVIEW MACROECONOMIC MESOECONOMIC MICROECONOMIC PROMOTING GROWTH MAKING IT INCLUSIVE Poverty Reduction Inequality reduction Schooling Different economic sectors Multiple variables Different elasticity of poverty to growth Type of occupation Gender Household Source: Ferreira (2010) Economic Growth
  • 7. POLICY AND POVERTY LITERATURE REVIEW POLICY CLUSTERS Source: World Bank (WDR-1980) Source: UNDP (HDR-2003) HUMAN DEVELOPMENT RURAL PRODUCTIVITY INFRASTRUCTURE NON-TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIAL SECTORS HUMAN RIGHTS, EQUITY, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
  • 8. POVERTY AND POLICY IN BRAZIL Plano Brasil sem Miséria Programa Bolsa Família Plano Real - Hyperinflation - Fiscal debts - Economic stagnation - AAGR 85-92: -0.54% 1994 2003 2011 - Control of inflation - Economic stabilization - Commercial opening - Cash transfers - Raise of minimum wage - Raise of per capita expenditure in social areas (health, education) - 16.2 million of extremely poor - Three pillars for policy: public services, guarantee of income, inclusive production Slow and not inclusive growth Inequality reduction Moderate growth Slow reduction of poverty Poverty reduction Source: Ferreira, Leite e Ravallion (2007) ; IPEA(2011); Governo Federal (2011) LITERATURE REVIEW
  • 9. LOCAL POLICY LITERATURE REVIEW NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE LOCAL PERSPECTIVE Anti-poverty policy focused on income Programa Bolsa Família Minimum wage Human Development Policy Expenditures in health and education Capture regional inequalities Very different levels of expenditures and of social indicators
  • 10. • Motivation • Literature review – Anti-poverty policy – Brazilian scenario – Local social policy • Descriptive analysis – Opportunity index – Municipal expenditure • Regression model • Concluding remarks AGENDA AGENDA
  • 11. OVERVIEW DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS • Analysis of human development policy in the local dimension • Municipal expenditure in social areas is considered a proxy for local policy in the municipalities • To investigate the relationship between the level of municipal expenditure and the “opportunity index” • Limitations: – Other expenditure and investments – Inefficiency – Corruption • Model:
  • 12. OPPORTUNITY INDEX DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS EDUCA- TION WORK & INCOME HEALTH YOUTH EDUCATION (IFDM) (i) Pre-school attendance (ii) Age-grade distortion (iii) % of teachers with superior education (iv) Average daily hourly classes (v) School drop out rates (vi) IDEB ADULT EDUCATION % individuals of 25 years and older that completed 8 years of schooling BASIC HEALTH (IFDM) (i) Number of pre-natal consultations (ii) Mortality for non- defined reasons (iii) Infant mortality for avoidable causes Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE WORK (i) Unemployment rate (ii) Formal employment (iii) Generation of formal employment (IFDM) INCOME (i) Average/growth of wage of formal labor market (IFDM) (ii) Average per capita income (iii) Gini Index
  • 13. EDUCATION DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE Table 1 – Rate of adults (25+) that completed basic education by quintile of per capita income (percent) Quintile 2000 2010 1 10.6 26.9 2 16.1 35.4 3 24.1 45.8 4 40.3 50.7 5 69.8 78.3 Total 36.1 50.8 Source: CENSO/IBGE Table 2 – Index of education for Brazilian municipalities 2000 2010 Mean 0.5186 0.7066 Median 0.3852 0.5769 Max 0.8557 0.9567 Min 0.1008 0.2714 Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE
  • 14. HEALTH DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE Table 3- Index of health for Brazilian municipalities 2000 2010 Mean 0.7120 0.8091 Median 0.6573 0.8104 Max 0.9887 1.0000 Min 0.0331 0.4421 Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE Table 4 – Percentage of municipalities per category of Index of Health 2000 Norte Nordeste Sudeste Sul Centro-Oeste Brazil Low 4.9 5.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.6 Regular 57.5 70.5 17.1 5.5 6.7 34.5 Moderate 37.0 23.8 55.6 58.9 68.5 45.5 High 0.7 0.4 25.5 35.6 24.7 17.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2010 Norte Nordeste Sudeste Sul Centro-Oeste Brazil Low 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Regular 17.1 4.9 0.9 0.1 1.1 3.3 Moderate 74.6 73.4 29.0 11.0 29.7 43.2 High 8.2 21.7 70.1 88.9 69.2 53.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: FIRJAN
  • 15. WORK & INCOME DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE Table 5 – Unemployment & Informality Rate by quintile of per capita income (percent) Quintile Unemployment Informality 2000 2010 2000 2010 1 31.1 22.2 53.7 53.4 2 20.6 12.3 54.7 46.0 3 15.4 7.1 46.4 36.8 4 11.3 3.9 36.8 28.6 5 6.8 2.6 24.8 21.2 Total Brasil 15.3 7.7 40.1 33.3 Source: Censo/IBGE Table 6 – Per capita income and Gini Index by region Region Per capita income* Gini Index 2000 2010 2000 2010 Norte 478.2 618.0 0.6542 0.6335 Nordeste 389.0 550.2 0.6665 0.6315 Sudeste 928.8 1086.8 0.6090 0.5873 Sul 823.9 1060.5 0.5892 0.5345 Centro-Oeste 844.8 1103.1 0.6414 0.6034 Brasil 727.4 901.0 0.6452 0.6106 *in R$ of 2010 (transformed using INPC) Source: Censo/IBGE Table 7 – Work&Income Index 2000 2010 Mean 0.5987 0.7363 Median 0.4985 0.5466 Max 0.7857 0.8688 Min 0.2194 0.3398 Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE
  • 16. OPPORTUNITY INDEX DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS Source: FIRJAN; Censo/IBGE
  • 17. MUNICIPAL EXPENDITURE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
  • 18. MUNICIPAL EXPENDITURE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
  • 19. MUNICIPAL EXPENDITURE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
  • 20. • Motivation • Literature review – Anti-poverty policy – Brazilian scenario – Local social policy • Descriptive analysis – Opportunity index – Municipal expenditure • Regression model • Concluding remarks AGENDA AGENDA
  • 21. • Motivation • Literature review – Human development – Poverty – Policy – Brazilian scenario • Descriptive analysis – Opportunity index – Municipal expenditure • Regression model • Concluding remarks AGENDA AGENDA
  • 22. CONCLUDING REMARKS CONCLUDING REMARKS Higher level of expenditure in health and education is associated with a higher level of opportunities. Expenditure in health is more productive in 2010 than 2000. No difference for education. Higher urbanization level and municipality size are associated with higher level of opportunities Higher dependency rate is associated with a lower level of opportunities The municipalities that invest more on human development policies in health and education are the ones with a better index Demand for policy to raise productivity of rural activities and to make services accessible in rural areas Specific policy should consider demographic characteristics Elderly  Health Children  Education
  • 23. Thank you!