U.S. Chamber Post 2012 Election Update
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U.S. Chamber Post 2012 Election Update

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U.S. Chamber Post 2012 Election Update U.S. Chamber Post 2012 Election Update Presentation Transcript

  • ICCE Fall Conference November 15, 2012U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections Political Landscape Before Vote Direction of Country: 40% right track 55% wrong track President’s Job : 49% approval 47% disapproval Congressional Job Approval: 17% approval 75% disapproval Generic Congressional Vote: 45% Dem 45% GOPU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 ElectionsU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise View slide
  • The 2012 ElectionsU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise View slide
  • The 2012 ElectionsU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections Battleground Exit Polls • Support from key constituencies • President more likable than Romney • Voters were more optimistic about economy • Super-storm SandyU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections President Obama’s Win Demographics + Ground Game Women 55 % of the vote Hispanics 71 % of the vote African-Americans 93 % of the vote Asian 73 % of the vote Youth (18-29) 60 % of the voteU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections Battleground Exit Polls “Role of Government” • 43% of voters want an “activist government” • Compared to 52% in 2008U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections U.S. Senate Currently: 51 D / 47 R / 2 Ind. (GOP needed 4 for control) 2012 Senate Elections: 23 D / 10 R – 7 Dem Open / 2 GOP Open – 9 of the 23 seats held by Democrats voted for Bush or McCain in the past two Presidential elections – 5 Dem held seats are “toss up” = MT, ND, VA, WI & CT – 1 Dem held seats “lean or likely” GOP = NE – 5 GOP held seats are “toss up” = AZ, NV, MA, ME & INU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections U.S. Senate Results 113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind. Democrats Picked Up: Indiana – Rep. Donnelly defeated Mourdock Maine – King defeated Summers and Dill Massachusetts – Warren defeated Sen. Brown Republicans Picked Up: Nebraska – State Sen. Fischer defeated former Senator KerreyU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2012 Elections U.S. House Results Currently 242 R / 193 D (Ds + 25 for control) 113th Congress 234 R / 193 D (8 not decided) 24 members are ran against each other, thanks to redistrictingU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The Fiscal CliffU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt Federal Deficit • 2011 deficit was $1.3 trillion. • 2012 deficit projected at $1.1 trillion • The fourth consecutive annual deficit exceeding $1 trillion.U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Federal Spending, Deficits and Debt Federal Debt • Gross debt at $16 trillion dollars ($11 trillion was held by the public and $5 trillion was intergovernmental holdings). • Could lead to higher interest rates, a weak dollar, more inflation, less private investment, lower economic and job growth and decline in our global competitiveness. U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Federal DebtU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Federal DebtU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Spending Composition More Than Half Of Spending On “Auto-Pilot” Biggest Driver Is Aging Baby-Boomer GenerationU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Spending ProjectionsU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The Fiscal CliffBudget Control Act of 2011 – Set the stage • Debt limit increase - $900 billion increase in debt limit and $917 billion in discretionary budget cuts. • Super Committee - 12 member Committee failed to adopt $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction (through budget cuts and/or taxes). • The Act mandates $1.2 trillion in Spending Cuts over ten years beginning in 2013.U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The Fiscal CliffTHE KEY ELEMENTS WHAT’S INVOLVED This includes the Bush tax cuts, traditional tax extenders (i.e. dividends, marginal rates, R&D, expensing) and other stimulus measures (i.e. payroll tax cut and Unemployment Insurance benefits). Sequestration would cut funding by approximately $55 billion for defense and $55 billion for non-defense spending – a total of $1.2 trillion over 10 years. Another increase in the debt ceiling will be required early in 2013, perhaps sooner depending on the cash-burn rate. U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Economic Impact Going over the “cliff” – Moody’s has issued a warning that it would downgrade Americas credit rating if Congress fails to reach a deal. – CBO: going over the cliff would spark a recession by slowing the economy by 0.5% and remain below potential until 2018. – CBO: unemployment would rise from 7.9 to 9.1 percent by the end of 2013U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The Budget • U.S. Chamber believes that enhancing economic and job growth is a prerequisite to achieve a balanced budget, but growth alone will not be enough. • Congress must reform entitlement programs and restructure the tax code to bring revenue and spending back into alignment. – Reform entitlements – Comprises over 55% of federal spending. – Reform the U.S. tax code – To improve efficiency and drive economic growth and bring revenue and spending back into alignment.U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Tax Reform – Why do we need it? • The United States has the world’s highest corporate tax rate. • The United States is the only country that has a worldwide system of tax. • Taxpayers spend 6.1 billion hours a year complying. • AMT was enacted in response to reports that 155 taxpayers legally avoided paying tax. In 2012, 31 million will be subject to AMT. U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Comprehensive Tax Reform • Lower the corporate tax rate • Adopt a Territorial Tax System • Simply Tax Code • Make reforms permanentU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Lame Duck Set for November 13 • Fiscal Cliff • Taxes (Extension) • Spending Cuts (Sequestration) • Russian PNTR • Filibuster RulesU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Lame Duck Major Tax Provisions • Expiration of the Bush tax cuts (December 31, 2012) • Expiration of the payroll tax cut (December 31, 2012) • Expiration of unemployment benefits (December 31, 2012) • Sequestration (January 2, 2013) • AMT patch (December 31, 2012) • Expiration of the tax extenders (R&D tax credit)U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Lame Duck Three Options: • NO DEAL • Kick The Can • Bridge Solution / Grand BargainU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Debt Ceiling Heres a number to watch: $224 billion That is the difference between the U.S. federal debt outstanding, as of Nov. 5, and the debt ceiling of $16.394 trillion. The gap will shrink in coming weeks.U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Elections Clearly…U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Elections Clearly… Elections MatterU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • The 2014 Elections U.S. Senate 113th Congress: 52 D / 45 R / 3 Ind. 2014 Elections: 20 D / 13 R – 12 D come from either Red States or Swing States: LA, AR, AK, SD, ND, MT – 1 R comes from a NON Red State = ME (Collins)U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • Q3 Small Business Outlook Survey Perhaps THE Most Important Finding! 97 % of Small Businesses surveyed cite a candidate’s support for the free enterprise system as important to how they will vote this year. U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • America’s Small Business Summit! Save the Date: April 29 – May 1, 2013 | Washington, D.C. For more information, visit www.uschambersummit.com.U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • USCC Midwest Regional Office on Facebook!Why should you become a fan?• Latest news on USCC Programs• Know what’s happening in D.C.• Tell us what’s going on at your chamber!• See what other Chambers in the Region are doing ‘Like Us’ at www.facebook.com/uschambermidwest U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise
  • U.S. Chamber of Commerce Midwest Regional Office Questions? Doug Loon Vice President, Regional Affairs 952.832.9151 dloon@uschamber.comU.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE 100 Years Standing Up for American Enterprise