1. French property
market report N° 13 - OCTOBER 2011
months in 3 departments: Meurthe-et-
Moselle, Pyrénées- Orientales and Deux-
Old apartments Old houses
INSEE NOTA- Sèvres.
RIES INDEX Apartment prices, in contrast, show a rise
(INSEE- Index value Variation* Index value Variation* of over 10% in 8 departments: Alpes-de-
labeled) Haute-Provence, Corse-du-Sud, Haute-
2011 2011 3 2011 2011 3 Corse, Indre- et-Loire, Mayenne, Nord,
1 year 1 year
T1 T2 months T1 T2 months Orne and Haute- Vienne. Similarly, house
Metropolitan prices have risen by 10% in 15 departments
231.0 236,4 2,3 % 10,3 % 194,4 195,8 0,7 % 5,3 % (Ardèche/Ardennes/Aube/Corse-du-Sud/
France
Haute-Corse/Dordogne/Jura/Haute-
Île-de-France 246.2 254.8 3.5 % 17.3 % 188.2 190.3 1.1 % 6.5 % Loire/Lot-et-Garonne/Morbihan/Moselle/
Nièvre/Haute-Saône/Haute-Vienne/Terri-
Provinces 217.1 219.5 1.1 % 3.8 % 196.6 197.7 0.6 % 4.9 %
toire de Belfort). The price falls are occur-
* 3-month variation: development between 2011T1 and 2011T2 * year-on-year change: development ring especially in average-sized cities, such
capital has thus reached 22.5% in Paris pro- as -2% in Le Havre for apartments, and
per and 15.1% in its closest suburbs. In the -9% in Bayonne for houses. There are few
provinces, however, the annual rise in prices large falls or falls affecting large cities.
Analysis is both more moderate and less contrasting
between apartments and houses. Indeed,
This confirms the great variation between
markets, which is not simply a matter of a
house prices actually rose by more than contrast between Paris and the provinces.
apartment prices (4.9% compared to 3.8%). It should be noted that the information
■ The resale market This trend is confirmed by the figures re-
corded in the Rhône-Alpes and PACA re-
from preliminary contracts displays a com-
parable level of variation.
gions, where the price gap between houses
Volumes
and apartments reached or exceeded two
At the end of June 2011, the volume of
percentage points.
sales of existing properties in France num- ■ The new-build market
bered 812,000 in one year. This level of
growth is admittedly slower (+16% in June In the second quarter, price stability pre- According to the Markemetron bulle-
2011 compared with +32% in December vailed in the provinces, for both houses tin (sales outlook indicator for individual
2010), but it is nevertheless contributing and apartments. non-estate houses), the annual number
to a return to the transaction levels seen The provincial market appears to be driven of transactions relating to such properties
during the “best years” (2003-2007). by a certain number of large conurbations was 5.5% down at the end of August 2011.
In Ile-de-France, the trend is one of stabili- such as Lille and Nantes, where prices are This trend has accelerated, since the fall
sation (+1% in May-July on the same period rising by around 10% each year, with little was just 2% three months earlier. It is also
of 2010). The provinces, meanwhile, show difference between houses and apart- more accentuated in the South and West.
a significant rise (+8%) in the number of ments. In Toulouse, contrastingly, the rate As for real estate development, sales of
properties changing hands in the second of increase is much greater for houses. dwellings to private individuals have re-
quarter of 2011 compared with the second Apartment prices are falling in 17 departments tracted by 22.6% between the second quar-
quarter of 2010. (Allier/Hautes-Alpes/Calvados/Cantal/Cha- ters of 2010 and 2011, including 21.8% in
rente-Maritime/Gard/Loir-et-Cher/Loire/ apartment blocks. New instructions have
Price Lot-et-Garonne/Manche/Oise/Pas-de-Ca- dropped by 8.6%. Twelve regions are expe-
The increase in year-on-year prices re- lais/Somme/Tarn-et-Garonne/Var/Vosges/ riencing a simultaneous fall in sales and
mains generally strong in the second quar- Territoire de Belfort) and those of houses new instructions. This has led to a mode-
ter of 2011 (7.8%), in spite of a slowdown. in 16 departments (Aisne/Alpes-de-Haute- rate rise (1.5%) in the number of dwellings
This is due to the price of apartments ha- Provence/Cantal/Charente/Creuse/Drôme/ placed on sale (68,100) and the average
ving risen by 10.3% in one year and that of Indre/Haute-Marne/Meurthe-et-Moselle/ sale period has risen from 7 to 8 and a half
houses by 5.3%. This trend is confirmed in Orne/Hautes-Pyrénées/Pyrénées-Orien- months. This increase in stock applies in
recent months since, between the first and tales/Haut-Rhin/Deux-Sèvres/Somme/ particular to Île-de-France and the Rhône-
the second quarter, a rise of 2.1% can be Vaucluse). Apartment prices have dropped Alpes region. The average price per m2 of
observed in the price of apartments and of for two consecutive quarters in 6 depart- apartments sold in the second quarter of
0.1% in the price of houses. ments: Allier, Calvados, Charente- Mari- 2011 is also up 7.7%, with rises seen in Au-
Paris is displaying a price development time, Somme, Var and Vosges. vergne, Brittany and Île-de-France, while
quite distinct from the rest of the country. House prices have been displaying a the average price for individual houses has
The annual rise in apartment prices in the downward trend for two consecutive risen by just 1.8%.
French property
market report
NOTAIREs dE FRANCE - N° 13 - October 2011

2. Outlook
■ The resale market make their credit restrictions more stringent, 10.3% for all pre-owned dwellings in Ile-de-
in spite of interest rates remaining low. France and 16.2% for apartments in Paris,
The recent change in the volume of Secondly, there’s the reform of the taxation a historically high rate, compared with an
transactions reflects a slight slowdown of capital gains on property, due to come average of 8.6% in previous years.
which we announced at the start of the year into force on 1 February next year, which
for the second year half. However, the latest by doubling (to 30 years instead of 15) the As for the price of resale properties, the
fiscal measures concerning the imposition period of ownership required in order to be developments should remain positive on
of capital gains on property should correct exempt, will dissuade some owners of rental the currently dynamic markets which we
this trend. In addition, the volume of sales accommodation, second homes or property have already mentioned, due to a shortage
for 2011 should be equivalent or even slightly assets which are inherited (in two stages), of available stock.
above that of 2010, which was 783,000. On the from putting them up for sale. The same will
other hand, we are expecting a significant fall apply to a proportion of potential investors
in sale numbers in 2012, which could reach in these same assets. And finally, there is ■ The new-build market
several tens of thousands of transactions, the customary wait-and-see approach seen
all on a market showing increasing levels during pre-election periods. The end of the year should, as is usually
of inter-regional contrast. Another trend detected since the start of 2011 the case, be more dynamic, due to a
is likely to continue and affect the property temporary acceleration in new-build
Three reasons are combining to create this market in the coming months, namely: sales ahead of December 31 linked to the
situation. First of all, there is the economic - a significant fall in the number of first- imminent end of the full-rate Scellier tax
and financial context. Growth forecasts time buyers (by which we mean buyers deduction scheme, and possible future tax
have been revised downwards, causing the aged under 30). adjustments. However, the volume of sales
banks, which are already facing numerous - a rise in buyers aged over 60: 16% for the from 2010, namely 115,000, will certainly
problems (most notably the Greek crisis), provinces, compared with an average of 12% not be equalled, with a figure not exceeding
to implement strict rules (Basle III) and to in previous years. 100,000 transactions most likely.
Average price per sq.m. of old apartments
Development over 1 year: 1 April 2010 to 30 June 2010 / 1 April 2011 to 30 June 2011
Dunkerque
1 933 € Metz
9,4 % 1 929 €
Lille Reims
2 856 € 8,2 %
2 025 €
7,1 % 3,4 %
Caen Paris Nancy
2 263 € 8 150 € 1 850 €
Rennes 7,7 % 22,5 % 6,9 %
2 239 €
6,8 % Strasbourg
Orléans 2 444 €
Tours 2 046 € Mulhouse 12,8 %
2 262 € 5,4 % 1 207 €
8,9 % 2,6 %
Besançon
Nantes 1 763 €
2 550 € 5,0 %
7,7 %
Saint-Étienne Dijon
1 263 € 2 133 €
Poitiers 2,4 %
1 515 € 1,0 %
Guadeloupe -0,1 %
2 120 € Lyon
Ns Limoges 3 107 €
1 352 € Clermont- Nîmes 10,6 %
La Réunion 10,6 % Ferrand 1 775 €
2 292 € 1 587 € 2,0 % Grenoble Nice
3,8 % 7,6 % 2 422 € 3 679 €
Bordeaux
2 738 € 4,5 % 8,4 %
9,5 %
Toulon
2 324 €
Annual change in price 4,7 %
per sq.m. Bayonne
2 667 € Toulouse
Less than 0 % 12,8 % 2 464 € Haute-Corse
4,9 % Montpellier Marseille 2 352 €
From 0 % to 5 % 2 527 € 2 538 € 12,6 %
5 % plus 5,1 % 5,7 %
ns = not significant (the volume of sales does not permit the calculation of suitable statistics)
Source: Notaires de France property database (the prices in Île-de-France are an evaluation of Corse-du-Sud
the INSEE notaries index for the 2nd quarter of 2011). Outside Île-de-France, the prices have been 2 924 €
calculated based on an average volume of 150 transactions per city and per quarter
French property
market report
NOTAIREs dE FRANCE - N° 13 - October 2011

3. Average sale price of older houses
Development over 1 year: 1 April 2010 to 30 June 2010 / 1 April 2011 to 30 June 2011
Amiens Lille
Rouen 156 000 € 179 000 €
180 000 € 6,1 % 8,5 %
Reims
Le Havre 10,4 % 200 000 €
182 200 € -5,2 %
4,5 %
Metz
Île-de-France 180 500 €
Caen 304 700 € 2,6 %
Brest 232 700 €
188 000 € 6,5 %
Chartres Nancy
19,0% 189 500 € 170 800 €
-3,8 % 0,5 %
Tours Troyes
190 000 € 156 900 €
0,0 % 14,2 %
Orléans
Nantes 202 200 €
240 000 € 0,6 %
9,1 %
Dijon
Saint-Étienne 227 000 €
Poitiers Chateauroux 182 000 €
113 000 € 2,9 %
158 000 € 1,1 %
-1,3 % 9,2 %
Lyon
Ns 296 000 €
Limoges 7,6 %
La Réunion 145 000 €
240 000 € 2,1 %
0,2% Grenoble
305 000 €
Nîmes -0,5 %
Bordeaux Montauban 194 000 €
246 900 € 159 000 € -3,0 %
Annual change 10,2 % -0,6 % Toulon
in sale prices 340 000 €
6,3 %
Less than 0 %
From 0 % to 10 % Toulouse
265 000 € Montpellier Marseille / Haute-Corse
10 % plus 8,4 % 303 500 € Aix-en-Provence 220 000 €
6,1 % 318 500 € 18,9 %
ns = not significant (the volume of sales does not permit the calculation of suitable statistics) 9,8 %
Source: Notaires de France property database (the prices in Île-de-France are an evaluation of
the INSEE notaries index for the 2nd quarter of 2011). Outside Île-de-France, the prices have been Corse-du-Sud
calculated based on an average volume of 150 transactions per city and per quarter 300 000 €
20,0 %
Price per sq.m. of new property in 2nd quarter of 2011 (apartments)
Nord-Pas-
Picardie de-Calais
3 307 € 3 094 € Champagne-
Haute-Normandie 7,8 % -2,8 % Ardennes
3 023 € 3 088 €
3,5 % 5,3 %
Lorraine
Basse-Normandie 2 809 €
3 472 € 9,0 %
Bretagne 3,2 %
3 178 €
11,0 % Alsace
Île-de-France 3 019 €
5 031 € 7,8 %
8,8 %
Pays-de- Franche-Comté
la-Loire 2 730 €
3 456 € 0,5 %
7,6 % Centre
3 043 € Bourgogne
0,5 % 2 653 €
Poitou-Charentes -8,2 %
3 574 €
7,4 %
Rhône-Alpes
Ns 3 728 €
Limousin 8,3 %
2 666 € Auvergne
4,5 % 3 071 €
17,4 %
Aquitaine
3 441 € PACA
7,1 % 4 176 €
4,6 %
Price development per sq.m.
Less than 0 % Midi-Pyrénées
Corse
3 269 €
From 0 % to 5 % 3 389 € Languedoc- 2,0 %
8,0 % Roussillon
5 % plus 3 280 €
ns = not significant (sales volumes -0,4 %
do not permit the calculation
of suitable statistics)
Source: FPI / ECLN / CGDD / SOeS
French property
market report
NOTAIREs dE FRANCE - N° 13 - October 2011

4. Housing indices
France: the property price index for
France as a whole is calculated by the
International comparison:
Notaires de France in partnership with property price index compared
the INSEE. This index is published every to the income available per household
three months and uses the hedonic pri- Base 2000=1
cing method. The data result from sale
France
documents transmitted by the notaries. United States
United Kingdom
United states: the FHFA index produced
by the Federal Housing Finance Agency,
a US government body, measures the
development of the price of individual
houses based on a sample of mortgage
loans, using the repeated sales method.
United Kingdom: the DCLG index is
the official house price index published
by the British government, based on a
sample of mortgage loans. It uses the
hedonic pricing method.
Source: CGEDD according to INSEE, notarial databases, deseasonalized INSEE Notaries Indices, Freddie Mac, FHFA, R.Shiller, US Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, UK DCLG, UK National Statistics
Graphic downloadable at: http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/rubrique.php3?id_rubrique=138.
The residential property market in Ile-de-France and Paris in
the 2nd quarter of 2011
All the analyses and press conference pack can be found on the Notaires de France property portal
accessible at http://www.notaires.fr
Contact: Olivier Pavy, Director of Economic Affairs – High Council for the Notarial Profession. Editorial Committee: Pierre Bazaille, Thierry Delesalle,
Michel Pagès and Olivier Pavy. Published by: Conseil supérieur du notariat - 60 bd de La Tour-Maubourg - 75007 Paris - Tél. +33 (0)1 44 90 30 00
www.notaires.fr. design and creation: Bureau de Création - ISSN : 2100-241X
French property
market report
NOTAIREs dE FRANCE - N° 13 - October 2011