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Investor presentation september 2013
 

Investor presentation september 2013

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    Investor presentation september 2013 Investor presentation september 2013 Presentation Transcript

    • FOCUSED ON PROFITABLE, CONSISTENT GROWTH Investor Presentation September 2013
    • FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS Certain information contained in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements, such as information relating to expected performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results and experiences to differ materially from the anticipated results and expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made. Among the factors that may cause actual results and experiences to differ from anticipated results and expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are the following: (i) the effect of, or changes in, general economic conditions; (ii) fluctuations in the cost and availability of inputs and raw materials, such as live cattle, live swine, feed grains (including corn and soybean meal) and energy; (iii) market conditions for finished products, including competition from other global and domestic food processors, supply and pricing of competing products and alternative proteins and demand for alternative proteins; (iv) successful rationalization of existing facilities and operating efficiencies of the facilities; (v) risks associated with our commodity purchasing activities; (vi) access to foreign markets together with foreign economic conditions, including currency fluctuations, import/export restrictions and foreign politics; (vii) outbreak of a livestock disease (such as avian influenza or bovine spongiform encephalopathy), which could have an adverse effect on livestock we own, the availability of livestock we purchase, consumer perception of certain protein products or our ability to access certain domestic and foreign markets; (viii) changes in availability and relative costs of labor and contract growers and our ability to maintain good relationships with employees, labor unions, contract growers and independent producers providing us livestock; (ix) issues related to food safety, including costs resulting from product recalls, regulatory compliance and any related claims or litigation; (x) changes in consumer preference and diets and our ability to identify and react to consumer trends; (xi) significant marketing plan changes by large customers or loss of one or more large customers; (xii) adverse results from litigation; (xiii) risks associated with leverage, including cost increases due to rising interest rates or changes in debt ratings or outlook; (xiv) compliance with and changes to regulations and laws (both domestic and foreign), including changes in accounting standards, tax laws, environmental laws, agricultural laws and occupational, health and safety laws; (xv) our ability to make effective acquisitions or joint ventures and successfully integrate newly acquired businesses into existing operations; (xvi) effectiveness of advertising and marketing programs; and (xvii) those factors listed under Item 1A. “Risk Factors” included in our September 29, 2012, Annual Report filed on Form 10-K. 2
    • EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Tyson Foods has made a turnaround since 2009 • Producing more consistent, stable earnings • Growth strategy implemented in 2012 – Aggressively growing international in-country production – Growing domestic prepared foods and value-added products • Measurable growth – Annual 3 - 4% revenue growth – At least 10% EPS growth over time 3
    • TODAY’S DISCUSSION • Tyson Today • The Global Marketplace • Strategic Growth • Financial Results and Outlook • Appendix 4
    • TYSON TODAY
    • OUR PRINCIPLES 6
    • THERE IS VALUE IN DIVERSITY • Multi-Protein Chicken, Beef, Pork • Multi-Channel Retail, Food Service, Exports • Multi-National Brazil, China, India, Mexico, United States • Broad Product Portfolio • • • • • • • Value-added Chicken Value-added Beef & Pork Pepperoni Beef & Pork Pizza Toppings Pizza Crusts Tortillas Bacon • • • • • • • Deli Meats Hams Franks Ethnic Foods Soups Snacks Sauces • • • • • • • Appetizers Side Items Prepared Meals Meal Kits Fully-cooked Dinner Meats Commodity Chicken Commodity Beef & Pork Tyson’s diversity provides a natural hedge against economic cycles and a foundation for growth. 7
    • OUR APPROACH TO BUSINESS • The Chicken segment is vertically integrated; we manage the production process from beginning to end. • The Beef and Pork segments are not vertically integrated; we do not carry feed cost risk. Livestock are purchased from various producers. • The Prepared Foods segment comprises a variety of models; raw materials for these foods come from internal and external sources. Value-added beef and pork items such as pepperoni and bacon are in the Prepared Foods segment. Value-added chicken items such as nuggets are in the Chicken segment. 8
    • MARKET LEADERSHIP Source: Watt Poultry USA, March 2013 Based on ready-to-cook pounds Source: Cattle Buyers Weekly % of Daily Steer/Heifer Slaughter Capacity (head), 2012 Source: National Pork Board Spring 2009 (most recent available) Tyson produces approximately 1 out of every 5 pounds of chicken, beef and pork in the United States. 9
    • VALUABLE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO Tyson offers product innovation, consumer insights and a broad portfolio of foods and brands that provide solutions for our customers while giving us pricing power beyond commodity protein. 10
    • THREE-YEAR PERFORMANCE: AT A GLANCE Tyson Foods has achieved an improved level of performance while navigating global economic challenges, unfavorable market dynamics and often staggering input cost increases. From FY2010 to FY2012 Tyson: • Delivered record sales each year • Generated $3.7 billion in operating cash flows • Invested nearly $2 billion in CapEx to fuel continued improvement and growth • Paid down $1.1 billion in debt and reduced interest expense • Improved net debt to cap to 18.4% (Gross debt to cap = 28.7%) • Improved liquidity to more than $2 billion at the end of fiscal 2012 • Achieved $715 million in operating efficiencies in the chicken segment (more than $1 billion in total since 2008) • Averaged nearly $2 adjusted earnings per share* * See Appendix for non-GAAP reconciliations • Established investment grade rating profile with Moody’s, S&P and Fitch “The turnaround is over. It’s time to turn it on.” – Donnie Smith, Tyson Foods President & CEO 11
    • POSITIONED FOR SUCCESS • 115,000 Team Members worldwide • Second largest food production company in the Fortune 500 Where we are in the U.S. • Worldwide locations: – 56 Chicken plants – 12 Beef plants* – 9 Pork plants* – 25 Prepared Foods plants • Beef and pork plants are near cattle and hog supplies, which lowers transportation costs and improves availability of livestock for processing • Chicken plants are located in regions with a climate suitable for poultry production and access to feed grains * Includes three case-ready beef and pork plants • Chicken • Beef • Pork • Prepared Foods • Case-Ready Beef & Pork • Animal Nutrition 12
    • FarmCheck™ Responsible Sourcing Our Commitment •Do the right thing when it comes to animal well-being •Be good stewards of the animals •Be our customers’ go-to supplier for quality meats •Anticipate and embrace change based on sound science and best practices •Be for something rather than against something 13
    • MAKING GREAT FOOD. MAKING A DIFFERENCE™ • Active in the fight against hunger since 2000. • Donated more than 90 million pounds – 360 million meals – of much needed protein to food banks. • Partners with Share Our Strength, Lift Up America, Feeding America, National Urban League and the League of United Latin American Citizens to raise awareness and help feed the hungry across the nation. • Meals That Matter disaster relief program begun in 2012 to support our long-standing tradition of feeding people during times of disaster. 14
    • THE GLOBAL MARKETPLACE
    • OUR CHALLENGE: FEEDING THE WORLD WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 9B 7B 2013 2050 POPULATION GROWING 75M YEAR ADDING A CITY THE SIZE OF PHILADELPHIA WEEKLY (UNITED NATIONS) IT’S ESTIMATED THAT IN 40 YEARS THE WORLD WILL NEED 100% MORE FOOD THAN WE PRODUCE TODAY (CENTER FOR FOOD INTEGRITY) 16
    • MARKET OPPORTUNITIES • The world’s population is growing; protein consumption is growing with it. • To feed the global demand for protein, the U.S. is exporting more of its protein production. • Globally, as people enter the middle class, they add protein to their diets. • U.S. protein production is flat to declining; less protein available to U.S. consumers resulting in higher domestic pricing. Global protein consumption is projected to grow more than 500% from 1960 to 2019. 350,000 Global Protein Consumption 300,000 Source: USDA FAS and OECD. Includes Beef/Veal, Pork, Broilers, and Turkey Metric Tons in Millions 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 17
    • PROTEIN SUPPLY AND PRICE Pounds Combined Per Capita Domestic Meat Availability (Beef, Pork, Chicken, Turkey; Carcass Weight Equivalent) 280 Cents per Pound 180 275 170 270 160 265 150 260 255 140 250 130 245 120 240 110 235 230 100 Per Capita Domestic Protein Availability(1) Annual Composite Average Price(2) Reduced domestic production and increased exports have resulted in less protein on the market for U.S. consumers. Lower supplies have led to higher prices. Source: USDA actual historical data; 2013 and 2014 forecast by Robert A. Brown, Inc.; (1) represents beef, pork, chicken and turkey carcass weight equivalent; (2) annual composite average price is a simple average of monthly USDA wholesale price for beef, pork and poultry; 2013 data as of 7/16/2013. 18
    • PROTEIN PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS Beef Chicken 40,000 100.00% 35,000 90.00% 80.00% 30,000 70.00% 25,000 100.00% 90.00% 25,000 80.00% 70.00% 20,000 60.00% 60.00% 20,000 50.00% 15,000 40.00% 30.00% 10,000 20.00% 5,000 15,000 50.00% 40.00% 10,000 30.00% 20.00% 5,000 10.00% 10.00% - U.S. Production in Million Pounds (Left Scale) 30,000 0.00% U.S. Exports as a % of Production (Right Scale) - 0.00% Pork 25,000 100.00% 90.00% While production of the three major proteins has been relatively flat in the past four years, exports have grown, leading to reduced domestic protein supplies. 20,000 70.00% 15,000 60.00% 50.00% 10,000 40.00% 30.00% 5,000 20.00% 10.00% - Source: USDA and Robert A. Brown, Inc., May 2013 2013 is RAB forecast 80.00% 0.00% 19
    • CORN FUTURES AND CHICKEN LIVE COSTS While grain prices have increased in recent years, Tyson’s product innovation, quality and service to customers has helped overcome higher feed costs. Sources: corn futures, DTN Prophet X; live cost, Tyson Foods. Updated Sept. 9, 2013 20
    • BEEF: HISTORICALLY THE SPREAD MATTERS $1,800 $1,750 USDA TOTAL REVENUE Dollars per Head $1,700 $1,650 $1,600 $1,550 USDA CATTLE COST $1,500 $1,450 $1,400 There is a strong correlation between revenue and the cost of cattle. Tyson historically has outperformed industry indexes in the spread between revenue per head and cattle costs. 21
    • PORK: HISTORICALLY THE SPREAD MATTERS $240 $220 USDA TOTAL REVENUE Dollars per Head $200 USDA HOG COST $180 $160 $140 There is a strong correlation between revenue and the cost of hogs. Tyson historically has outperformed industry indexes in the spread between revenue per head and hog costs. 22
    • STRATEGIC GROWTH
    • GROWTH STRATEGY Accelerate • Grow domestic value-added chicken sales • Grow prepared foods sales • Grow international chicken production Innovate • Products and services • Consumer insights Cultivate • Talent development to support Tyson’s growth and long-term future Growth will be fueled by adding value, increasing international production, innovation and Team Members. 24
    • IT’S ALL ABOUT TAKING ACTION Achieve • Grow sales, earnings and shareholder value: – Grow international in-country production – Develop innovative, value-added products – Make strategic acquisitions • Prepared foods, ethnic foods, value-added chicken • Small regional players • International – Get paid for the value we provide – Repurchase shares – Keep operations efficient and costs under control Focus matters. 25
    • INNOVATION DRIVES NEW PRODUCTS AND GROWTH Product innovation is at the core of our ability to retain and grow our customer base. 26
    • DOING WHAT’S RIGHT, RIGHT FROM THE START™ • No antibiotics ever • 100% vegetarian fed (no animal protein or bakery by-products) • Independent 3rd party animal welfare certification • 100% all natural* • No added hormones or steroids** • USDA Process Verified Program (Fresh Products) • Raised Cage Free * No artificial ingredients, minimally processed ** Federal regulations prohibit the use of hormones or steroids in chicken 27
    • INSIGHTS FUEL THE INNOVATION PROCESS • • • • • • • • • • • Economic trends Demographic trends Flavor trends Category attitude and usage studies Consumer insights Product testing Macro trends Consumer panel data Consumer segment insights In-store/shopping studies Concept testing NEW! • Products • Flavors • Targets • Packages • Usage Occasions Our proven approach to innovation helps us deliver food solutions to customers and consumers. 28
    • FINANCIAL RESULTS AND OUTLOOK
    • INVESTMENT THESIS • Strong balance sheet provides attractive options for growth: – Reinvestment in Tyson through CapEx – Strategic acquisitions in prepared foods and value-added chicken – Return capital to shareholders through repurchase program and dividends • Aggressively increase international in-country production where demand for protein is growing • Measurable growth: – Annual 3 - 4% revenue growth – At least 10% EPS growth over time • Become the leading “solution-providing” food company – not only a commodity protein company: – Lean-thinking culture focused on operational excellence and continuous improvement – Superior quality, service and innovation to be the customer’s go-to supplier – Alternative channels such as convenience stores, dollar stores and drug store chains Tyson strives to be the investment of choice. 30
    • BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH • Reduced net debt by $2.6 billion from FY02 through FY12 • Decreased net debt to cap from 51.8% to 18.4% FY02 through FY12 • Invested $690 million in FY12 CapEx • Achieved $1.2 billion in operating cash flow in FY12, third consecutive year above $1 billion • Liquidity at the end of FY12 was $2 billion, well above our targeted range of $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion • Invested $230 million in FY12 to repurchase 12.5 million shares • Paid a $0.10 special dividend in December 2012 • Increased the regular quarterly dividend by 25% A strong capital structure creates opportunities. 31
    • FY12 SALES – $33.3 BILLION Tyson’s multi-protein approach is supported by multi-channel distribution. 32
    • ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE* $2.50 $2.19 $1.89 $2.00 $1.91 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 2004 -$0.50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E Fiscal Year From 2010 through Q3 of 2013, Tyson has produced more consistent, stable earnings while absorbing approximately $1.5 billion in additional feed costs in our Chicken segment. * See Appendix for non-GAAP reconciliations. Does not include impact from a discontinued operation reported in Q3’13. 33
    • ADJUSTED OPERATING INCOME* $1,800 $1,600 $1,547 $1,285 $1,263 $1,400 in millions $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Fiscal Year Tyson averaged nearly $1.4 billion annually in adjusted operating income in 2010, 2011 and 2012. * See Appendix for non-GAAP reconciliations. Does not include impact from a discontinued operation reported in Q3’13. 34
    • GROWTH EXPECTATIONS Sales Adjusted EPS* FY 2010 $28.4 Billion $2.19 FY 2011 $32.3 Billion $1.89 FY 2012 $33.3 Billion $1.91 FY 2013 Expectation ~ $34.5 Billion > 2012 FY 2014 Expectation ~ $36 Billion > 10% FY 2015 Expectation ~ +3-4% > 10% • Expect top-line sales to grow about 3-4% annually • Sales from value-added products should grow 6-8% annually • Sales from international production should grow 12-16% annually • Anticipate an incremental $500 million in feed ingredient costs in FY13, with adjusted earnings expected to be better than FY12 adjusted EPS • EPS should grow at least 10% annually over time “What got us here won’t get us there.” – Donnie Smith, Tyson Foods President & CEO * See Appendix for non-GAAP reconciliations 35
    • INTERNATIONAL GROWTH BY 2014 ↑50% to 3MM bpw ↑61% to 450K bpw Maintain 2.7MM bpw ↑54% to 2MM bpw bpw = birds per week Tyson’s plans for international growth are focused on poultry production and further processing in Brazil, China and India, in addition to our long-standing poultry business in Mexico. 36
    • PRIORITIES FOR USES OF CASH • Capital expenditures to grow existing businesses: – Capital maintenance level approximates $250 million a year – FY13 CapEx on pace for $550-$600 million – Preliminary plan for FY14 CapEx is $650-700 million • Acquisitions advance growth strategies around value-added products and international production: – Profit improvement CapEx target greater than 20% Modified Internal Rate of Return – Acquisitions and joint ventures target greater than 20% Return on Invested Capital • Return cash to shareholders: – Share repurchases • Purchased more than 34 million shares for $650 million (as of June 29, 2013) – Dividends 37
    • OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS • Be the best-in-class operator in beef, pork and chicken • Consistently outperform beef and pork industry indexes • Achieved more than $1 billion in operational efficiencies in our chicken segment since 2008; anticipating another $100 million chicken and prepared foods efficiencies in FY13 38
    • WHY TYSON? • Tyson Foods is growing into a solution-providing food company: – Being a commodity protein company is not our goal or our destiny – Pursuing value-added product development – Delivering quality, service and innovation enables us to be the customers’ go-to supplier – Growth into alternate channels such as convenience stores, dollar stores and drug store chains offer opportunities • Strong balance sheet gives Tyson options to grow • Aggressively growing international in-country production • Pursuing prepared foods and value-added chicken acquisitions • Establishing a culture of lean thinking, operational excellence and continuous improvement • Expectations of annual 3-4% revenue growth and 10% EPS growth over time • Share repurchases and increased dividends 39
    • Blank
    • APPENDIX Tyson Foods, Inc. 41
    • NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS Adjusted operating income and adjusted net income per share attributable to Tyson (adjusted EPS) are presented as supplementary financial measurements in the evaluation of our business. We believe the presentations of adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS help investors assess our financial performance from period to period and enhance understanding of our financial performance. However, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS may not be comparable to those of other companies in our industry, which limits the usefulness as comparative measures. Adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS are not measures required by or calculated in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as substitutes for any measures of financial performance reported in accordance with GAAP. Investors should rely primarily on our GAAP results, and use non-GAAP financial measures only supplementally, in making investment decisions. (in millions, expect per share data) 12 Months Ended October 1, 2011 October 2, 2010 Operating Operating Income EPS Income EPS September 29, 2012 Operating Income EPS Reported Less: Gain from insurance proceeds Gain on sale of interests in an equity method investment Reversal of reserves for foreign uncertain tax positions Add: Charges related to plant closing Impairment of goodwill Impairment of equity method investment Impairment of non-core assets in China Loss related to early extinguishment of debt Losses related to note repurchases Adjusted $ 1,248 $ 1.58 $ 1,285 — — — $ — — — — — — — — — 15 — — 1,263 — — — 0.04 0.29 — 1.91 — — — — — — 1,285 $ $ $ 1.97 $ — (0.03) (0.05) $ — — — — — — 1.89 1,556 $ (38) — — $ — 29 — — — — 1,547 2.06 October 3, 2009 Operating Income EPS $ (215) $ (1.47) (0.06) — — $ — — — — — — — 0.07 0.03 — — 0.09 2.19 15 560 — — — — 360 0.02 1.50 — — — — 0.05 $ $ 42
    • NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS (in millions, expect per share data) 12 Months Ended September 27, 2008 Operating Income Reported CONTINUED $ 331 September 29, 2007 Operating Income EPS $ 0.24 $ 613 September 30, 2006 Operating Income EPS $ 0.75 $ EPS (50) $ October 1, 2005 Operating Income October 2, 2004 Operating Income EPS $ 1.04 $ 733 EPS (0.58) $ 655 $ 1.13 — — — — — — — — — — — — Less: Gain on sale of an investment — Gain on sales of assets — — (19) — — — — — — — (0.01) — — — — — — — — (12) (0.02) — — — — — — — — — (0.04) — — — — — — — — — 61 0.11 Charges related to flood damage 7 0.01 — — — — — — — — Charges related to plant closings 13 0.02 — — 63 0.11 14 0.02 40 0.07 Cumulative effect of change in accounting principles — — — — — 0.02 — — — — Impairment of assets 23 0.04 5 0.01 — — — — 21 0.04 Impairment of intangible assets 10 0.02 7 0.01 3 0.01 — — 25 0.04 Live swine legal settlement — — — — — — 33 0.06 — — Gain on sale of remaining interest in Specialty Brands, Inc. Income related to vitamin antitrust litigation Tax adjustments (0.03) — — (0.03) Add: Charges related to BSE — Loss related to Hurricane Katrina — — — — — — 8 0.01 — — Severance and restructuring charges 23 0.04 — — 9 0.02 — — — — Tax adjustments — — — — — 0.04 — — — — Write off of obsolete inventory — — — — 7 0.01 — — — — Adjusted $ 407 $ 0.34 $ 606 $ 0.74 $ 32 $ (0.37) $ 698 $ 1.06 $ 880 $ 1.39 43