Technology Economics: Propylene via Propane Dehydrogenation

Propylene via PropaneDehydrogenation

#TEC003B Technology Economics Propylene via Propane Dehydrogenation 2013 AbstractPropylene has been established as a major component of the global olefins business, second only to ethylene. Globally, thegreatest volume of propylene is generated as a by-product in steam crackers and through the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC)process.With ethane prices falling in the USA due to the exploration of shale gas reserves, the low price of ethylene produced from this rawmaterial has given ethane-fed steam crackers in North America a feedstock advantage. This has put naphtha-fed steam crackers ata disadvantage, with many of them shutting down or revamping to use ethane as feedstock. Nevertheless, the propylene outputrates from ethane-fed crackers are negligible. This, combined with the rise in propylene demand, has resulted in a tight propylenemarket.For this reason, new and novel lower-cost chemical processes for on-purpose propylene production technologies are of greatinterest to the petrochemical marketplace. Such processes include: Metathesis, Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH), Methanol-to-Olefins/Methanol-to-Propylene (MTO/MTP), High Severity FCC, and Olefins Cracking. Among those, MTO/MTP and PDH stand outdue to their use of low-cost raw materials. In the US, some major companies, including Dow Chemical, are building PDH plants totake advantage of shale gas, the fastest growing source of gas in the country. In Middle East, the propane output is expected to becapable of supplying not only domestic needs, but also the demand from China, where many PDH projects are scheduled to goon stream within the next few years.In this report, the production of propylene through the dehydrogenation of propane is reviewed. Included in the analysis is anoverview of the technology and economics of a method similar to the UOP OleflexTM process, a technology selected by DowChemical to produce propylene at its production site in Texas. Both the capital investment and the operating costs are presentedfor plants constructed on the US Gulf Coast and China.The economic analysis presented in this report is based upon a plant fully integrated with a petrochemical complex and capableof producing 550 kta of polymer-grade propylene. The estimated CAPEX for such a plant on the US Gulf Coast is about USD 490million. While China presented the lowest CAPEX, the USA presented the most advantageous operational margins, due to the riseof shale gas, which lowered propane prices, justifying Dow`s choice for a new PDH plant in Texas. Although China still depends onimported propane from Middle East, being subjected to shortages of supply, the historical operational margins are high enough toexplain the number of PDH planned projects in the country. The attractiveness of each area is proven by the calculated internalrate of return of more than 25% per year in both regions.Copyrights © 2013 by Intratec Solutions LLC. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Contents About this Study...................................................................................................................................................................8 Object of Study.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Analyses Performed ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Construction Scenarios ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Location Basis ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Design Conditions ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Study Background ............................................................................................................................................................ 10 About Propylene...............................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Applications.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Manufacturing Alternatives .......................................................................................................................................................................................11 Licensor(s) & Historical Aspects ...............................................................................................................................................................................13 Technical Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................. 14 Chemistry ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................14 Raw Material ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Technology Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................16 Detailed Process Description & Conceptual Flow Diagram...................................................................................................................17 Area 100: Purification and Reaction.................................................................................................................................................................................17 Area 200: Product Recovery .................................................................................................................................................................................................17 Key Consumptions ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Technical Assumptions ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Labor Requirements.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 ISBL Major Equipment List ..........................................................................................................................................................................................22 OSBL Major Equipment List .......................................................................................................................................................................................24 Other Process Remarks .................................................................................................................................................................................................25 PDH-Integration Alternatives...............................................................................................................................................................................................25 Technology Advances.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Catalyst Regeneration System ............................................................................................................................................................................................26 Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 28 Project Implementation Schedule.........................................................................................................................................................................292

Capital Expenditures.......................................................................................................................................................................................................29 Fixed Investment......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Alternative OSBL Configurations.......................................................................................................................................................................................30 Fixed Investment Discussion ...............................................................................................................................................................................................32 Working Capital............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 32 Other Capital Expenses ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Total Capital Expenses ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Operational Expenditures ...........................................................................................................................................................................................33 Manufacturing Costs................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 33 Historical Analysis........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34 Economic Datasheet ......................................................................................................................................................................................................34Regional Comparison & Economic Discussion....................................................................................................... 37 Regional Comparison ....................................................................................................................................................................................................37 Capital Expenses.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Operational Expenditures......................................................................................................................................................................................................37 Economic Datasheet................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 Economic Discussion .....................................................................................................................................................................................................38References............................................................................................................................................................................ 40Acronyms, Legends & Observations .......................................................................................................................... 41Technology Economics Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 42 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................42 Workflow................................................................................................................................................................................................................................42 Capital & Operating Cost Estimates......................................................................................................................................................................44 ISBL Investment............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 44 OSBL Investment......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 Working Capital............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45 Start-up Expenses ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Other Capital Expenses ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Manufacturing Costs................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 46 Contingencies ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................46 Accuracy of Economic Estimates............................................................................................................................................................................47 Location Factor..................................................................................................................................................................................................................47Appendix A. Mass Balance & Streams Properties.................................................................................................. 49Appendix B. Utilities Consumption Breakdown .................................................................................................... 52 3

Appendix C. Process Carbon Footprint..................................................................................................................... 53 Appendix D. Equipment Detailed List & Sizing...................................................................................................... 54 Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses .................................................................................................................... 62 Direct Costs Breakdown ...............................................................................................................................................................................................62 Indirect Costs Breakdown ...........................................................................................................................................................................................63 Appendix F. Economic Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 64 Capital Expenditures.......................................................................................................................................................................................................64 Construction Location Factors............................................................................................................................................................................................64 Working Capital............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 64 Other Capital Expenses ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 64 Operational Expenditures ...........................................................................................................................................................................................65 Fixed Costs ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 Depreciation................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65 EBITDA Margins Comparison...............................................................................................................................................................................................65 Appendix G. Released Publications............................................................................................................................ 66 Appendix H. Technology Economics Form Submitted by Client.................................................................... 674

List of TablesTable 1 – Construction Scenarios Assumptions (Based on Degree of Integration) ...................................................................................9Table 2 – Location & Pricing Basis..............................................................................................................................................................................................9Table 3 – General Design Assumptions.................................................................................................................................................................................9Table 4 – Major Propylene Consumers................................................................................................................................................................................10Table 5 – Raw Materials & Utilities Consumption (per ton of Product)...........................................................................................................18Table 6 – Design & Simulation Assumptions...................................................................................................................................................................19Table 7 – Labor Requirements for a Typical Plant ........................................................................................................................................................19Table 8 – Main Streams Operating Conditions and Composition .....................................................................................................................22Table 9 – Inside Battery Limits Major Equipment List ................................................................................................................................................22Table 10 – Outside Battery Limits Major Equipment List .........................................................................................................................................24Table 11 – Catalyst Advances....................................................................................................................................................................................................26Table 12 – Base Case General Assumptions.....................................................................................................................................................................28Table 13 – Bare Equipment Cost per Area (USD Thousands)................................................................................................................................29Table 14 – Total Fixed Investment Breakdown (USD Thousands)......................................................................................................................29Table 15 – Working Capital (USD Million)..........................................................................................................................................................................32Table 16 – Other Capital Expenses (USD Million)..........................................................................................................................................................33Table 17 – CAPEX (USD Million)...............................................................................................................................................................................................33Table 18 – Manufacturing Fixed Cost (USD/ton) ..........................................................................................................................................................33Table 19 – Manufacturing Variable Cost (USD/ton) ....................................................................................................................................................34Table 20 – OPEX (USD/ton).........................................................................................................................................................................................................34Table 21 – Technology Economics Datasheet: Propylene via Propane Dehydrogenation at US Gulf........................................36Table 22 – Technology Economics Datasheet: Propylene via Propane Dehydrogenation in China............................................39Table 23 – Project Contingency...............................................................................................................................................................................................46Table 24 – Criteria Description..................................................................................................................................................................................................46Table 25 – Accuracy of Economic Estimates ...................................................................................................................................................................47Table 26 – Detailed Material Balance and Stream Properties................................................................................................................................49Table 27 – Utilities Consumption Breakdown.................................................................................................................................................................52Table 28 – Assumptions for CO2 e Emissions Calculation .......................................................................................................................................53Table 29 – CO2 e Emissions (ton/ton prod.)......................................................................................................................................................................53Table 30– Compressors Specifications................................................................................................................................................................................54Table 31 – Drivers..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................54Table 32 – Heat Exchangers .......................................................................................................................................................................................................55 5

Table 33 – Pumps .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................58 Table 34 – Columns.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................59 Table 35 – Utilities Supply ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................60 Table 36 – Vessels & Tanks Specifications..........................................................................................................................................................................60 Table 37 – Indirect Costs Breakdown for the Base Case (USD Thousands)...................................................................................................63 Table 38 – Detailed Construction Location Factor ......................................................................................................................................................64 Table 39– Working Capital Assumptions for Base Case............................................................................................................................................64 Table 40 – Fixed Cost Assumptions.......................................................................................................................................................................................65 Table 41 – Depreciation Value & Assumptions ..............................................................................................................................................................656

List of FiguresFigure 1 – OSBL Construction Scenarios...............................................................................................................................................................................8Figure 2 – Propylene from Multiple Sources ...................................................................................................................................................................12Figure 3 – Propane Dehydrogenation Reaction Network.......................................................................................................................................14Figure 4 – US Natural Gas Production History and Forecast (Trillion Cubic Feet) ....................................................................................15Figure 5 – Process Simplified Flow Diagram....................................................................................................................................................................16Figure 6 – Inside Battery Limits Conceptual Process Flow Diagram.................................................................................................................20Figure 7 – Continuous Catalyst Regenerator Simplified Scheme.......................................................................................................................27Figure 8 – Project Implementation Schedule .................................................................................................................................................................28Figure 9 – Total Direct Cost of Different Integration Scenarios (USD Thousands)...................................................................................31Figure 10 – Total Fixed Investment of Different Integration Scenarios (USD Thousands)..................................................................31Figure 11 – Total Fixed Investment Validation (USD Million) ................................................................................................................................32Figure 12 – OPEX and Product Sales History (USD/ton) ...........................................................................................................................................35Figure 13 – EBITDA Margin & IP Indicators History Comparison .........................................................................................................................35Figure 14 – CAPEX per Location (USD Million)...............................................................................................................................................................37Figure 15 – Operating Costs Breakdown per Location (USD/ton).....................................................................................................................38Figure 16 – Methodology Flowchart....................................................................................................................................................................................43Figure 17 – Location Factor Composition.........................................................................................................................................................................47Figure 18 – ISBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type for Base Case.............................................................................................62Figure 19 – OSBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type for Base Case ..........................................................................................62Figure 20 – Historical EBITDA Margins Regional Comparison ..............................................................................................................................65 7

About this Study This study follows the same pattern as all Technology Economics studies developed by Intratec and is based on Analyses Performed the same rigorous methodology and well-defined structure (chapters, type of tables and charts, flow sheets, etc.). Construction Scenarios This chapter summarizes the set of information that served The economic analysis is based on the construction of a as input to develop the current technology evaluation. All plant inside a petrochemical complex, in which propane required data were provided through the filling of the feedstock is locally provided and propylene product is Technology Economics Form available at Intratec’s website. consumed by a nearby polypropylene unit. Therefore, no storage for product or raw material is required. Additionally, You may check the original form in the “Appendix H. the petrochemical complex supplies most utilities. Technology Economics Form Submitted by Client”. However, since the Outside Battery Limits (OSBL) requirements– storage and utilities supply facilities – Object of Study significantly impact the capital cost estimates for a new venture, they may play a decisive role in the decision as to This assignment assesses the economic feasibility of an whether or not to invest. Thus, this study also performs an industrial unit for propylene production via propane analysis of the OSBL facilities impact on the capital costs. dehydrogenation implementing technology similar to the Three distinct OSBL configurations are compared. Those UOP OleflexTM process®. scenarios are summarized in Figure 1 and Table 1. The current assessment is based on economic data gathered on Q3 2011 and a chemical plant’s nominal capacity of 550 kta (thousand metric tons per year). Figure 1 – OSBL Construction Scenarios Non-Integrated Partially Integrated Fully Integrated Petrochemical Complex Petrochemical Complex Products Storage Products Consumer Products Consumer ISBL Unit ISBL Unit ISBL Unit Raw Materials Raw Materials Raw Materials Storage Storage Provider Grassroots unit Unit is part of a petrochemical complex Most infrastructure is already installedIntratec | About this Study Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 8

Table 1 – Construction Scenarios Assumptions (Based on Degree of Integration) NON-INTEGRATED PARTIALLY INTEGRATED FULLY INTEGRATEDStorage Capacity (Base Case for Evaluation) Feedstock & Chemicals 20 days of operation 20 days of operation Not included End-products & By-products 20 days of operation Not included Not includedUtility Facilities Included All required All required Only refrigeration units Control room, labs, gate house, Control room, labs,Support & Auxiliary Facilities maintenance shops, maintenance shops, Control room and labs(Area 900) warehouses, offices, change warehouses house, cafeteria, parking lotSource: Intratec – www.intratec.usLocation Basis Regional specific conditions influence both construction and operating costs. This study compares the economic performance of two identical plants operating in differentTable 2 – Location & Pricing Basis locations: the US Gulf Coast and China. The assumptions that distinguish the two regions analyzed in this study are provided in Table 2. Design Conditions The process analysis is based on rigorous simulation models developed on Aspentech Aspen Plus and Hysys, which support the design of the chemical process, equipment and OSBL facilities. The design assumptions employed are depicted in Table 3. Table 3 – General Design AssumptionsSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us Cooling water temperature 24 °C Cooling water range 11 °C Steam (Low Pressure) 7 Bar abs Refrigerant (Propylene) -45 °C Wet Bulb Air Temperature 25 °C Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 9

Study Background While CG propylene is used extensively for most chemical About Propylene derivatives (e.g., oxo-alcohols, acrylonitrile, etc.), PG propylene is used in polypropylene and propylene oxide Introduction manufacture. Propylene is an unsaturated organic compound having the PG propylene contains minimal levels of impurities, such as chemical formula C3H6. It has one double bond, is the carbonyl sulfide, that can poison catalysts. second simplest member of the alkene class of hydrocarbons, and is also second in natural abundance. Thermal & Motor Gasoline Uses Propylene has a calorific value of 45.813 kJ/kg, and RG propylene can be used as fuel if more valuable uses are unavailable locally (i.e., propane – propene splitting to Propylene 2D structure chemical-grade purity). RG propylene can also be blended into LPG for commercial sale. Propylene is produced primarily as a by-product of petroleum refining and of ethylene production by steam Also, propylene is used as a motor gasoline component for cracking of hydrocarbon feedstocks. Also, it can be octane enhancement via dimerization – formation of produced in an on-purpose reaction (for example, in polygasoline or alkylation. propane dehydrogenation, metathesis or syngas-to-olefins plants). It is a major industrial chemical intermediate that Chemical Uses serves as one of the building blocks for an array of chemical The principal chemical uses of propylene are in the and plastic products, and was also the first petrochemical manufacture of polypropylene, acrylonitrile, oxo-alcohols, employed on an industrial scale. propylene oxide, butanal, cumene, and propene oligomers. Commercial propylene is a colorless, low-boiling, Other uses include acrylic acid derivatives and ethylene – flammable, and highly volatile gas. Propylene is traded propene rubbers. commercially in three grades: Global propylene demand is dominated by polypropylene Polymer Grade (PG): min. 99.5% of purity. production, which accounts for about two-thirds of total propylene demand. Chemical Grade (CG): 90-96% of purity. Refinery Grade (RG): 50-70% of purity. Table 4 – Major Propylene Consumers Applications Polypropylene Mechanical parts, containers, fibers, films Acrylonitrile Acrylic fibers, ABS polymers The three commercial grades of propylene are used for different applications. RG propylene is obtained from Propylene glycol, antifreeze, Propylene oxide refinery processes. The main uses of refinery propylene are polyurethaneIntratec | Study Background in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for thermal use or as an Oxo-alcohols Coatings, plasticizers octane-enhancing component in motor gasoline. It can Cumene Polycarbonates, phenolic resins also be used in some chemical syntheses (e.g., cumene or isopropanol). The most significant market for RG propylene Coatings, adhesives, super absorbent Acrylic acid is the conversion to PG or CG propylene for use in the polymers production of polypropylene, acrylonitrile, oxo-alcohols and Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us propylene oxide. 10

Manufacturing Alternatives phases. This process converts heavy gas oil preferentially into gasoline and light gas oil.Propylene is commercially generated as a co-product, either The propylene yielded from olefins plants and FCC units isin an olefins plant or a crude oil refinery’s fluid catalytic typically considered a co-product in these processes, whichcracking (FCC) unit, or produced in an on-purpose reaction are primarily driven by ethylene and motor gasoline(for example, in propane dehydrogenation, metathesis or production, respectively. Currently, the markets havesyngas-to-olefins plants). evolved to the point where modes of by-product production can no longer satisfy the demand for propylene.Globally, the largest volume of propylene is produced inNGL (Natural Gas Liquids) or naphtha steam crackers, which A trend toward less severe cracking conditions, and thus togenerates ethylene as well. In fact, the production of increase propylene production, has been observed in steampropylene from such a plant is so important that the name cracker plants using liquid feedstock. As a result, new and“olefins plant” is often applied to this kind of manufacturing novel lower-cost chemical processes for on-purposefacility (as opposed to “ethylene plant”). In an olefins plant, propylene production technologies are of high interest topropylene is generated by the pyrolysis of the incoming the petrochemical marketplace. Such processes include:feed, followed by purification. Except where ethane is usedas the feedstock, propylene is typically produced at levels Olefin Metathesis. Also known as disproportionation,ranging from 40 to 60 wt% of the ethylene produced. The metathesis is a reversible reaction between ethyleneexact yield of propylene produced in a pyrolysis furnace is a and butenes in which double bonds are broken andfunction of the feedstock and the operating severity of the then reformed to form propylene. Propylene yields ofpyrolysis. about 90 wt% are achieved. This option may also be used when there is no butene feedstock. In this case,The pyrolysis furnace operation usually is dictated by part of the ethylene feeds an ethylene-dimerizationcomputer optimization, where an economic optimum for unit that converts ethylene into butene.the plant is based on feedstock price, yield structures,energy considerations, and market conditions for the Propane Dehydrogenation. A catalytic process thatmultitude of products obtained from the furnace. Thus, converts propane into propylene and hydrogen (by-propylene produced by steam cracking varies according to product). The yield of propylene from propane iseconomic conditions. about 85 wt%. The reaction by-products (mainly hydrogen) are usually used as fuel for the propaneIn an olefins plant purification area, also called separation dehydrogenation reaction. As a result, propylenetrain, propylene is obtained by distillation of a mixed C3 tends to be the only product, unless local demandstream, i.e., propane, propylene, and minor components, in exists for the hydrogen by-product.a C3-splitter tower. It is produced as the overheaddistillation product, and the bottoms are a propane- Methanol-to-Olefins/Methanol-to-Propylene. Aenriched stream. The size of the C3-splitter depends on the group of technologies that first converts synthesis gaspurity of the propylene product. (syngas) to methanol, and then converts the methanol to ethylene and/or propylene. The process alsoThe propylene produced in refineries also originates from produces water as by-product. Synthesis gas isother cracking processes. However, these processes can be produced from the reformation of natural gas or by thecompared to only a limited extent with the steam cracker steam-induced reformation of petroleum productsfor ethylene production because they use completely such as naphtha, or by gasification of coal. A largedifferent feedstocks and have different production amount of methanol is required to make a world-scaleobjectives. ethylene and/or propylene plant.Refinery cracking processes operate either purely thermally High Severity FCC. Refers to a group of technologiesor thermally – catalytically. By far the most important that use traditional FCC technology under severeprocess for propene production is the fluid- catalytic conditions (higher catalyst-to-oil ratios, higher steamcracking (FCC) process, in which the powdery catalyst flows injection rates, higher temperatures, etc.) in order toas a fluidized bed through the reaction and regeneration maximize the amount of propylene and other light products. A high severity FCC unit is usually fed with 11

gas oils (paraffins) and residues, and produces about These on-purpose methods are becoming increasingly 20-25 wt% propylene on feedstock together with significant, as the shift to lighter steam cracker feedstocks greater volumes of motor gasoline and distillate by- with relatively lower propylene yields and reduced motor products. gasoline demand in certain areas has created an imbalance of supply and demand for propylene. Olefins Cracking. Includes a broad range of technologies that catalytically convert large olefins molecules (C4-C8) into mostly propylene and small amounts of ethylene. This technology will best be employed as an auxiliary unit to an FCC unit or steam cracker to enhance propylene yields. Figure 2 – Propylene from Multiple Sources Naphtha Steam Cracker NGL Gas Oil Refinery FCC Unit RG Propylene CG/PG Propylene Propane PDH Ethylene/ Metathesis Butenes Methanol MTO/MTP Gas Oil High Severity FCC C4 to C8 Olefins Cracking OlefinsIntratec | Study Background Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 12

Specifically in the USA, four PDH projects have already beenLicensor(s) & Historical Aspects announced. The largest of such projects, carried out by Dow Chemicals, a 750 kta OleflexTM plant, is scheduled to goThe continuous rise in petroleum prices, in addition to the on stream in 2015.increase in world demand for propylene, led the chemicalindustry to innovate in the development of production China built its first unit PDH in mid-2010, but has six plantsroutes utilizing sources other than oil. In this context, the currently under construction and three more in therecent success of shale gas exploitation in the US is playing engineering design stage, all scheduled to start operating ina key role in the shift to natural gas as a source of feed to 2013 or 2014, increasing its production capacity in 5,070 kta.olefins production. This happens because natural gascomprises, besides methane, C2-C4 paraffins, such aspropane, which is increasingly being used in production ofpropylene by dehydrogenation process.Paraffin dehydrogenation for the production of olefins hasbeen used since the 1930s. During World War II, catalyticdehydrogenation of butanes by a chromia-alumina catalystwas used to produce butenes, which were then dimerizedto octenes and hydrogenated to octanes to yield high-octane aviation fuel. In the late 1980s, Houdry extended theapplication of chromia-alumina catalysts to thedehydrogenation of propane to propylene.Commercial interest in propane dehydrogenation (PDH) hasbeen increasing. Numerous plants dedicated to the processare currently under construction outside the United Statesand some are planned to be constructed in the US. Thereare already five licensed technologies: CATOFIN® from Lummus Technology; Oleflex™ from UOP; Fluidized Bed Dehydrogenation (FBD) from Snamprogetti/Yarsintez; STAR process® from Krupp Uhde; and PDH from Linde/BASF.The main differences between those technologies centeron the type of catalyst and regeneration methods used; thedesign of the reactor; and the methods used to achievebetter conversion rates (e.g., operating pressure, use ofdiluents, and reaction temperatures).By the end of March 2012, there were at least 16 propanedehydrogenation units in operation, with an aggregatecapacity of 5,260 thousand metric tons per annum (kta).Plans for increasing propylene capacity to 12,590 ktathrough 13 propane dehydrogenation units have also beenannounced, scheduled to start-up between now and 2015. 13

Technical Analysis Although higher process temperatures increase the Chemistry propylene yield, they also provoke thermal cracking reactions. Those reactions generate undesirable by- Propane dehydrogenation is an endothermic equilibrium products and consequently increase purification costs reaction generally carried out in the presence of a noble- or downstream. heavy-metal catalyst such as platinum or chromium. The following equation shows the propane dehydrogenation Therefore, PDH reaction temperatures usually range reaction: between 500 and 700°C, while reaction pressures are near atmospheric pressure. Typical thermal cracking side reactions are shown in Figure 3. Propane Propylene Hydrogen Overall yields of about 90 wt% of propylene are claimed by licensors of the commercially available PDH technologies. The propylene conversion is favored by higher temperatures and lower pressures. Figure 3 – Propane Dehydrogenation Reaction Network – CH4 cracking CH3 – CH2 – CH3 CH2 = CH2 C2H2n+2 Dehydrogenation CH3 – CH = CH2 Oligomerization CH2 = CH – CH2 – CH3 Aromatization CH3 – CH – CH2 – CH = CH2 Dehydrogenation – CH3 CH2 = CH – CH2 = CH3 Alkylation Polymerization R CnH2n CnH(n+y) Side Chain Coking Aromatization Side reactions increase with temperature and conversionIntratec | Technical Analysis Coke Source: Encyclopedia of Hydrocarbons, Volume II 14

The large amounts of shale gas reserves in the US areRaw Material considered to be capable of supplying ethane to crackers for many years. According to the forecast from the USThe feedstock to a PDH process unit is propane. Propane is Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2035, about halfrecovered from propane-rich liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) of the natural gas production in the US will be from shalestreams from natural gas processing plants. Propane may gas. This, along with the increasing trends in bothalso be obtained in smaller amounts as a by-product of propylene demand and propane supply, makes the PDHpetroleum refinery operations, such as hydrocracking and process an attractive chemical route to evaluate, not only influidized catalytic cracking (FCC). the US, but also in China, where feedstock propane imported from Middle East is available at low prices,As natural gas offerings in the USA are significantly allowing attractive margins for PDH processes.increasing due to the rising exploitation of shale gas,propane and ethane prices are decreasing. This changesboth ethylene and propylene industrial production byprompting new steam crackers to use ethane as feedstockand causing existing naphtha crackers to shut down (or tobe reconfigured to crack ethane). Such a shift to lighterfeedstock in crackers reduces both ethylene productioncosts and propylene output as a by-product, since crackingethane does not yield propylene as occurs with crackingnaphtha.However, in certain regions, propylene production mustcompete with the use of propane. Propane prices may beelevated in cold countries where it is used as fuel fortransportation and for domestic heating. Therefore, PDHunits may have elevated raw material costs in WesternEurope countries during the winter due to the demand forpropane as fuel.Figure 4 – US Natural Gas Production History andForecast (Trillion Cubic Feet) Non-associated onshore Associated with oil Coalbed methane Alaska Non-associated offshore Tight gas Shale gas 30 History Forecast 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) AOE2012 15

In the product recovery area, the reactor effluent is sent to a Technology Overview cryogenic system, where a hydrogen-rich stream is separated from the hydrocarbon stream. This hydrogen The process is separated into two different areas: the vapor stream is recovered at 85 to 93 mol-% hydrogen purification and reactor area; and the product recovery area. purity. The hydrocarbon liquid stream is then sent to a The purification and reaction area consists of four radial- selective hydrogenation unit (SHP) to eliminate diolefins flow reactors, charge and interstage heaters, and a reactor and acetylenes. feed-effluent heat exchanger. It also comprises cooling, compression and drying of reaction effluent as well as the The product mixture then goes to a deethanizer, where Continuous Catalyst Regenerator (CCR) unit. light hydrocarbons and hydrogen traces – resulting from selective hydrogenation – are removed, so it is possible to The CCR is an apparatus that continuously regenerates the recycle the unreacted propane to reactors without catalyst used in the dehydrogenation of propane. In PDH impurities. process, the catalyst is placed in moving beds in such a way that it continuously passes through the four radial reactors The last separation step occurs in the propane-propylene before being sent to the regeneration unit, which (P-P) splitter, where PG propylene product is acquired as regenerates the catalyst and returns it to the top of the first vapor and propane liquid returns to the reaction area. reactor. This entire scheme works independently of reaction, i.e., if regeneration stops, reaction will continue to occur normally, but without catalyst regeneration. Figure 5 – Process Simplified Flow Diagram Hydrogen-rich stream Area 100: Light Ends Fuel Area 200: Product Propane Purification & Recovery Reaction PG Propylene Recovered Propane Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usIntratec | Technical Analysis 16

Key Consumptions Table 5 – Raw Materials & Utilities Consumption (per ton of Product) RAW MATERIALS & UTILITIES UTILITIES GENERATIONIntratec | Technical Analysis 18

Labor Requirements Table 7 – Labor Requirements for a Typical Plant Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 19

Figure 6 – Inside Battery Limits Conceptual Process Flow DiagramIntratec | Technical Analysis Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 20

Figure 6 – Inside Battery Limits Conceptual Process Flow Diagram (Cont.)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 21

Table 8 presents the main streams composition and operating conditions. For a more complete material ISBL Major Equipment List balance, see the “Appendix A. Mass Balance & Streams Table 9 shows the equipment list by area. It also presents a Properties” brief description and the construction materials used. Detailed information regarding utilities flow rates is Find main specifications for each piece of equipment in provided in “Appendix B. Utilities Consumption Breakdown”. “Appendix D. Equipment Detailed List & Sizing”. For further details on greenhouse gas emissions caused by this process, see “Appendix C. Process Carbon Footprint”.Intratec | Technical Analysis 22

Table 10 shows the list of tanks located in the storage area OSBL Major Equipment List and the energy facilities required in the construction of a non-integrated unit. The OSBL is divided into three main areas: storage (Area 700), energy and water facilities (Area 800), and support & auxiliary facilities (Area 900).Intratec | Technical Analysis 24

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usIntratec | Technical Analysis 26

Figure 7 – Continuous Catalyst Regenerator Simplified SchemeSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 27

Economic Analysis The general assumptions for the base case of this study are In Table 12, the IC Index stands for Intratec chemical plant outlined below. Construction Index, an indicator, published monthly by Intratec, to scale capital costs from one time period to another. Table 12 – Base Case General Assumptions This index reconciles price trends of the fundamental components of a chemical plant construction such as labor, material and energy, providing meaningful historical and forecast data for our readers and clients. The assumed operating hours per year indicated does not represent any technology limitation; rather, it is an assumption based on usual industrial operating rates. Additionally, Table 12 discloses assumptions regarding the project complexity, technology maturity and data reliability, which are of major importance for attributing reasonable contingencies for the investment and for evaluating the overall accuracy of estimates. Definitions and figures for both contingencies and accuracy of economic estimates Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us can be found in this publication in the chapter “Technology Economics Methodology.” Figure 8 – Project Implementation Schedule Basic Engineering Detailed Engineering Procurement Construction Total EPC Phase Start-upIntratec | Economic Analysis Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 28

“Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses” provides a detailedProject Implementation breakdown for the direct expenses, outlining the share ofSchedule each type of equipment in total.The main objective of knowing upfront the project After defining the total direct cost, the TFI is established byimplementation schedule is to enhance the estimates for adding field indirect costs, engineering costs, overhead,both capital initial expenses and return on investment. contract fees and contingencies.The implementation phase embraces the period from thedecision to invest to the start of commercial production. Table 14 – Total Fixed Investment Breakdown (USDThis phase can be divided into five major stages: (1) Basic Thousands)Engineering, (2) Detailed Engineering, (3) Procurement, (4)Construction, and (5) Plant Start-up.The duration of each phase is detailed in Figure 8.Capital ExpendituresFixed InvestmentTable 13 shows the bare equipment cost associated witheach area of the project.Table 13 – Bare Equipment Cost per Area (USDThousands)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usTable 14 presents the breakdown of the total fixedinvestment (TFI) per item (direct & indirect costs and Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usprocess contingencies). For further information about thecomponents of the TFI, please see the chapter “TechnologyEconomics Methodology.” Indirect costs are defined by the American Association of Cost Engineers (AACE) Standard Terminology as thoseFundamentally, the direct costs are the total direct material "costs which do not become a final part of the installationand labor costs associated with the equipment (including but which are required for the orderly completion of theinstallation bulks). In other words, the total direct expenses installation."represent the total equipment installed cost. 29

The indirect project expenses are further detailed in “Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses”. Alternative OSBL Configurations The total fixed investment for the construction of a new chemical plant is greatly impacted by how well it will be able to take advantage of the infrastructure already installed in that location. For example, if there are nearby facilities consuming a unit’s final product or supplying a unit’s feedstock, the need for storage facilities significantly decreases, along with the total fixed investment required. This is also true for support facilities that can serve more than one plant in the same complex, such as a parking lot, gate house, etc. This study analyzes the total fixed investment for three distinct scenarios regarding OSBL facilities: Non-Integrated Plant Plant Partially Integrated Plant Fully Integrated The detailed definition, as well as the assumptions used for each scenario is presented in the chapter “About this Study.” The influence of the OSBL facilities on the capital investment is depicted in Figure 9 and in Figure 10.Intratec | Economic Analysis 30

Figure 9 – Total Direct Cost of Different Integration Scenarios (USD Thousands)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usFigure 10 – Total Fixed Investment of Different Integration Scenarios (USD Thousands)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 31

Working Capital Working capital, described in Table 15, is another significant investment requirement. It is needed to meet the costs of labor; maintenance; purchase, storage, and inventory of field materials; and storage and sales of product(s). Assumptions for working capital calculations are found in “Appendix F. Economic Assumptions”. Table 15 – Working Capital (USD Million) Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Figure 11 – Total Fixed Investment Validation (USD Million)Intratec | Economic Analysis Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 32

Other Capital Expenses Table 17 – CAPEX (USD Million)Start-up costs should also be considered when determiningthe total capital expenses. During this period, expenses areincurred for employee training, initial commercializationcosts, manufacturing inefficiencies and unscheduled plantmodifications (adjustment of equipment, piping,instruments, etc.).Initial costs are not addressed in most studies on estimating Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usbut can become a significant expenditure. For instance, theinitial catalyst load in reactors may be a significant cost and,in that case, should also be included in the capitalestimates. Operational ExpendituresThe purchase of technology through paid-up royalties or Manufacturing Costslicenses is considered to be part of the capital investment. The manufacturing costs, also called OperationalOther capital expenses frequently neglected are land Expenditures (OPEX), are composed of two elements: a fixedacquisition and site development. Although these are small cost and a variable cost. All figures regarding operationalparts of the total capital expenses, they should be included. costs are presented in USD per ton of product. Table 18 shows the manufacturing fixed cost.Table 16 – Other Capital Expenses (USD Million) To learn more about the assumptions for manufacturing fixed costs, see the “Appendix F. Economic Assumptions” Table 18 – Manufacturing Fixed Cost (USD/ton)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usAssumptions used to calculate other capital expenses areprovided in “Appendix F. Economic Assumptions.” Table 19 discloses the manufacturing variable costTotal Capital Expenses breakdown.Table 17 presents a summary of the total CapitalExpenditures (CAPEX) detailed in this chapter. 33

Economic Datasheet Table 19 – Manufacturing Variable Cost (USD/ton) The Technology Economic Datasheet, presented in Table 21, is an overall evaluation of the technologys production costs in a US Gulf Coast based plant. The expected revenues in products sales and initial economic indicators are presented for a short-term assessment of its economic competitiveness. Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Table 20 – OPEX (USD/ton) Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Historical Analysis Figure 12 depictures Sales and OPEX historic data. Figure 13 compares the project EBITDA trends with Intratec Profitability Indicators (IP Indicators). The Basic Chemicals IP Indicator represents basic chemicals sector profitability,Intratec | Economic Analysis based on the weighted average EBITDA margins of major global basic chemicals producers. Alternately, the Chemical Sector IP Indicator reveals the overall chemical sector profitability, through a weighted average of the IP Indicators calculated for three major chemical industry niches: basic, specialties and diversified chemicals. 34

Figure 12 – OPEX and Product Sales History (USD/ton)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usFigure 13 – EBITDA Margin & IP Indicators History ComparisonSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 35

Intratec | Economic Analysis36

Regional Comparison & Economic DiscussionRegional Comparison Figure 14 summarizes the total Capital ExpendituresCapital Expenses (CAPEX) for two locations.Variations in productivity, labor costs, local steel prices, Operational Expendituresequipment imports needs, freight, taxes and duties onimports, regional business environments and local Specific regional conditions influence prices for rawavailability of sparing equipment were considered when materials, utilities and products. Such differences are thuscomparing capital expenses for the different regions under reflected in the operating costs. An OPEX breakdownconsideration in this report. structure for the different locations approached in this study is presented in Figure 15.Capital costs are adjusted from the base case (a plantconstructed on the US Gulf Coast) to locations of interest byusing location factors calculated according to the items Economic Datasheetaforementioned. For further information about location The Technology Economic Datasheet, presented in Tablefactor calculation, please examine the chapter “Technology 22, is an overall evaluation of the technologys capitalEconomics Methodology.” In addition, the location factors investment and production costs in the alternative locationfor the regions analyzed are further detailed in “Appendix F. analyzed in this study.Economic Assumptions.”Figure 14 – CAPEX per Location (USD Million)Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 37

Figure 15 – Operating Costs Breakdown per Location (USD/ton) Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usIntratec | Regional Comparison & Economic Discussion 38

Intratec | References40 References

Acronyms, Legends & ObservationsAACE: American Association of Cost Engineers NGL: Natural gas liquidsC: Distillation, stripper, scrubber columns (e.g., C-101 would OCT: Olefin Conversion Technologydenote a column tag) OPEX: Operational ExpendituresC2, C3, ... Cn: Hydrocarbons with "n" number of carbon OSBL: Outside battery limitsatoms P: Pumps (e.g., P-101 would denote a pump tag)C2=, C3=, ... Cn=: Alkenes with "n" number of carbon atoms PDH: Propane dehydrogenationCAPEX: Capital expenditures PG: Polymer gradeCC: Distillation column condenser PP: PolypropyleneCCR: Continuous catalyst regenerator P-P: Propane-PropyleneCG: Chemical grade PSA: Pressure swing adsorptionCK: Distillation column compressor R: Reactors, treaters (e.g., R-101 would denote a reactor tag)CP: Distillation column reflux pump RF: RefrigerantCR: Distillation column reboiler RG: Refinery gradeCT: Cooling tower SB: Steam boilerCV: Distillation column accumulator drum SHP: Selective hydrogenation processE: Heat exchangers, heaters, coolers, condensers, reboilers(e.g., E-101 would denote a heat exchanger tag) Syngas: Synthesis gasEBIT: Earnings before Interest and Taxes T: Tanks (e.g., T-101 would denote a tank tag)EBITDA: Earnings before Interests, Taxes, Depreciation and TFI: Total Fixed InvestmentAmortization TPC: Total process costEIA: Energy Information Administration V: Horizontal or vertical drums, vessels (e.g., V-101 wouldF: Furnaces, fired heaters (e.g., F-101 would denote a denote a vessel tag)furnace tag) WD: Demineralized waterFCC: Fluid catalytic cracking X: Special equipment (e.g., X-101 would denote a specialIC Index: Intratec Chemical Plant Construction Index equipment tag)IP Indicator: Intratec Chemical Sector Profitability Indicator Obs.: 1 ton = 1 metric ton = 1,000 kgISBL: Inside battery limitsK: Compressors, blowers, fans (e.g., K-101 would denote acompressor tag)KPI: Key Performance Indicatorkta: thousands metric tons per yearLPG: Liquefied petroleum gasMTO: Methanol-to-OlefinsMTP: Methanol-to-Propylene 41

Technology Economics Methodology Intratec Technology Economics methodology From this simulation, material balance calculations are performed around the process, key process indicators are ensures a holistic, coherent and consistent identified and main equipment listed. techno-economic evaluation, ensuring a clear understanding of a specific mature chemical Equipment sizing specifications are defined based on process technology. Intratecs equipment design capabilities and an extensive use of AspenONE Engineering Software Suite that enables the integration between the process simulation developed Introduction and equipment design tools. Both equipment sizing and process design are prepared in conformance with generally The same general approach is used in the development of accepted engineering standards. all Technology Economics assignments. To know more about Intratec’s methodology, see Figure 16. Then, a cost analysis is performed targeting ISBL & OSBL fixed capital costs, manufacturing costs, and overall working While based on the same methodology, all Technology capital associated with the examined process technology. Economics studies present uniform analyses with identical Equipment costs are primarily estimated using Aspen structures, containing the same chapters and similar tables Process Economic Analyzer (formerly Aspen Icarus) and charts. This provides confidence to everyone interested customized models and Intratecs in-house database. in Intratec’s services since they will know upfront what they will get. Cost correlations and, occasionally, vendor quotes of unique and specialized equipment may also be employed. One of Workflow the overall objectives is to establish Class 3 cost estimates 1 with a minimum design engineering effort. Once the scope of the study is fully defined and understood, Intratec conducts a comprehensive Next, capital and operating costs are assembled in Microsoft bibliographical research in order to understand technical Excel spreadsheets, and an economic analysis of such aspects involved with the process analyzed. technology is performed. Subsequently, the Intratec team simultaneously develops Finally, two analyses are completed, examining: the process description and the conceptual process flow diagram based on: a. The total fixed investment in different construction scenarios, based on the level of integration of the plant a. Patent and technical literature research with nearby facilities b. Non-confidential information provided by technology b. The capital and operating costs for a second different licensors plant locationIntratec | Technology Economics Methodology c. Intratecs in-house database d. Process design skills Next, all the data collected are used to build a rigorous steady state process simulation model in Aspen Hysys and/or Aspen Plus, leading commercial process flowsheeting software tools. 1 These are estimates that form the basis for budget authorization, appropriation, and/or funding. Accuracy ranges for this class of estimates are + 10% to + 30% on the high side, and - 10 % to - 20 % on the low side. 42

Figure 16 – Methodology Flowchart Study Understanding - Validation of Project Inputs Patent and Technical Literature Databases Intratec Internal Database Bibliographical Research Non-Confidential Information from Aspen Plus, Aspen Hysys Technology Licensors or Technical Validation – Aspen Exchanger Design & Suppliers Process Description & Rating, KG Tower, Sulcol Flow Diagram and Aspen Energy Analyzer Material & Energy Balances, Key Vendor Quotes Process Indicators, List of Equipment & Equipment Sizing Aspen Process Economic Pricing Data Gathering: Raw Capital Cost (CAPEX) Analyzer, Aspen Capital Materials, Chemicals, & Operational Cost (OPEX) Cost Estimator, Aspen In- Utilities and Products Estimation Plant Cost Estimator & Intratec In-House Database Construction Location Factor Economic Analysis (http://base.intratec.us) Analyses of Different Construction Scenarios and Plant Location Project Development Phases Final Review & Information Gathering / Tools AdjustmentsSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 43

Process equipment (e.g., reactors and vessels, heat Capital & Operating Cost exchangers, pumps, compressors, etc.) Estimates Process equipment spares The cost estimate presented in the current study considers a process technology based on a standardized design Housing for process units practice, typical of a major chemical company. The specific design standards employed can have a significant impact Pipes and supports within the main process units on capital costs. Instruments, control systems, electrical wires and other The basis for the capital cost estimate is that the plant is hardware considered to be built in a clear field with a typical large single-line capacity. In comparing the cost estimate hereby Foundations, structures and platforms presented with an actual project cost or contractors Insulation, paint and corrosion protection estimate, the following must be considered: In addition to the direct material and labor costs, the ISBL Minor differences or details (many times, unnoticed) addresses indirect costs, such as construction overheads, between similar processes can affect cost noticeably. including: payroll burdens, field supervision, equipment The omission of process areas in the design considered rentals, tools, field office expenses, temporary facilities, etc. may invalidate comparisons with the estimated cost presented. OSBL Investment Industrial plants may be overdesigned for particular The OSBL investment accounts for auxiliary items necessary objectives and situations. to the functioning of the production unit (ISBL), but which perform a supporting and non-plant-specific role. OSBL Rapid fluctuation of equipment or construction costs items considered may vary from process to process. The may invalidate cost estimate. OSBL investment could include the installed cost of the following items: Equipment vendors or engineering companies may provide goods or services below profit margins during Storage and packaging (storage, bagging and a economic downturns. warehouse) for products, feedstocks and by-products Specific locations may impose higher taxes and fees, Steam units, cooling water and refrigeration systems which can impact costs considerably. Process water treating systems and supply pumps In addition, no matter how much time and effort are devoted to accurately estimating costs, errors may occur Boiler feed water and supply pumps due to the aforementioned factors, as well as cost and labor changes, construction problems, weather-related issues, Electrical supply, transformers, and switchgear strikes, or other unforeseen situations. This is partiallyIntratec | Technology Economics Methodology considered in the project contingency. Finally, it must Auxiliary buildings, including all services and always be remembered that an estimated project cost is not equipment of: maintenance, stores warehouse, an exact number, but rather is a projection of the probable laboratory, garages, fire station, change house, cost. cafeteria, medical/safety, administration, etc. General utilities including plant air, instrument air, inert ISBL Investment gas, stand-by electrical generator, fire water pumps, etc. The ISBL investment includes the fixed capital cost of the main processing units of the plant necessary to the Pollution control, organic waste disposal, aqueous manufacturing of products. The ISBL investment includes waste treating, incinerator and flare systems the installed cost of the following items: 44

Working Capital Cash on hand. An adequate amount of cash on hand to give plant management the necessary flexibility toFor the purposes of this study, 2 working capital is defined as cover unexpected expenses (estimated as a certainthe funds, in addition to the fixed investment, that a period – in days – of manufacturing expenses).company must contribute to a project. Those funds mustbe adequate to get the plant in operation and to meet Start-up Expensessubsequent obligations. When a process is brought on stream, there are certain one-The initial amount of working capital is regarded as an time expenses related to this activity. From a timeinvestment item. This study uses the following standpoint, a variable undefined period exists between theitems/assumptions for working capital estimation: nominal end of construction and the production of quality product in the quantity required. This period is commonly Accounts receivable. Products and by-products referred to as start-up. shipped but not paid by the customer; it represents the extended credit given to customers (estimated as a During the start-up period expenses are incurred for certain period – in days – of manufacturing expenses operator and maintenance employee training, temporary plus depreciation). construction, auxiliary services, testing and adjustment of equipment, piping, and instruments, etc. Our method of Accounts payable. A credit for accounts payable such estimating start-up expenses consists of four components: as feedstock, catalysts, chemicals, and packaging materials received but not paid to suppliers (estimated Labor component. Represents costs of plant crew as a certain period – in days – of manufacturing training for plant start-up, estimated as a certain expenses). number of days of total plant labor costs (operators, supervisors, maintenance personnel and laboratory Product inventory. Products and by-products (if labor). applicable) in storage tanks. The total amount depends on sales flow for each plant, which is directly related to Commercialization cost. Depends on raw materials plant conditions of integration to the manufacturing of and products negotiation, on how integrated the plant product‘s derivatives (estimated as a certain period – in is with feedstock suppliers and consumer facilities, and days – of manufacturing expenses plus depreciation, on the maturity of the technology. It ranges from 0.5% defined by plant integration circumstances). to 5% of annual manufacturing expenses. Raw material inventory. Raw materials in storage Start-up inefficiency. Takes into account those tanks. The total amount depends on raw material operating runs when production cannot be availability, which is directly related to plant conditions maintained or there are false starts. The start-up of integration to raw material manufacturing inefficiency varies according to the process maturity: (estimated as a certain period – in days – of raw 5% for new and unproven processes, 2% for new and material delivered costs, defined by plant integration proven processes, and 1% for existing licensed circumstances). processes, based on annual manufacturing expenses. In-process inventory. Material contained in pipelines Unscheduled plant modifications. A key fault that and vessels, except for the material inside the storage can happen during the start-up of the plant is the risk tanks (assumed to be 1 day of manufacturing that the product(s) may not meet specifications expenses). required by the market. As a result, equipment modifications or additions may be required. Supplies and stores. Parts inventory and minor spare equipment (estimated as a percentage of total maintenance materials costs for both ISBL and OSBL).2 The accounting definition of working capital (total current assetsminus total current liabilities) is applied when considering theentire company. 45

Other Capital Expenses Uncertainty in process parameters, such as severity of operating conditions and quantity of recycles Prepaid Royalties. Royalty charges on portions of the plant are usually levied for proprietary processes. A Addition and integration of new process steps value ranging from 0.5 to 1% of the total fixed investment (TFI) is generally used. Estimation of costs through scaling factors Site Development. Land acquisition and site Off-the-shelf equipment preparation, including roads and walkways, parking, railroad sidings, lighting, fencing, sanitary and storm Hence, process contingency is also a function of the sewers, and communications. maturity of the technology, and is usually a value between 5% and 25% of the direct costs. Manufacturing Costs The project contingency is largely dependent on the plant complexity and reflects how far the conducted estimation is Manufacturing costs do not include post-plant costs, which from the definitive project, which includes, from the are very company specific. These consist of sales, general engineering point of view, site data, drawings and sketches, and administrative expenses, packaging, research and suppliers’ quotations and other specifications. In addition, development costs, and shipping, etc. during construction some constraints are verified, such as: Operating labor and maintenance requirements have been Project errors or incomplete specifications estimated subjectively on the basis of the number of major equipment items and similar processes, as noted in the Strike, labor costs changes and problems caused by literature. weather Plant overhead includes all other non-maintenance (labor and materials) and non-operating site labor costs for services associated with the manufacture of the product. Table 23 – Project Contingency Such overheads do not include costs to develop or market the product. Plant Complexity Complex Typical Simple Project Contingency 25% 20% 15% G & A expenses represent general and administrative costs incurred during production such as: administrative Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us salaries/expenses, research & development, product distribution and sales costs. Intratec’s definitions in relation to complexity and maturity are the following: Contingencies Contingency constitutes an addition to capital cost Table 24 – Criteria Description estimations, implemented based on previously available data or experience to encompass uncertainties that may Somewhat simple, widelyIntratec | Technology Economics Methodology Simple incur, to some degree, cost increases. According to known processes recommended practice, two kinds of contingencies are Typical Regular process assumed and applied to TPC: process contingency and Complexity Several unit operations, extreme project contingency. Complex temperature or pressure, more Process contingency is utilized in an effort to lessen the instrumentation impact of absent technical information or the uncertainty of New & From 1 to 2 commercial plants that which is obtained. In that manner, the reliability of the Maturity Proven information gathered, its amount and the inherent Licensed 3 or more commercial plants complexity of the process are decisive for its evaluation. Errors that occur may be related to: Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 46

A properly estimated location factor is a powerful tool, bothAccuracy of Economic Estimates for comparing available investment data and evaluating which region may provide greater economic attractivenessThe accuracy of estimates gives the realized range of plant for a new industrial venture. Considering this, Intratec hascost. The reliability of the technical information available is developed a well-structured methodology for calculatingof major importance. Location Factors, and the results are presented for specific regions’ capital costs comparison.Table 25 – Accuracy of Economic Estimates Intratec’s Location Factor takes into consideration the differences in productivity, labor costs, local steel prices, Very equipment imports needs, freight, taxes and duties onReliability Low Moderate High High imported and domestic materials, regional business environments and local availability of sparing equipment. + 30% + 22% + 18% + 10%Accuracy For such analyses, all data were taken from international - 20% - 18% - 14% - 10% statistical organizations and from Intratec’s database.Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Calculations are performed in a comparative manner, taking a US Gulf Coast-based plant as the reference location. The final Location Factor is determined by four major indexes:The non-uniform spread of accuracy ranges (+50 to – 30 %, Business Environment, Infrastructure, Labor, and Material.rather than ±40%, e.g.) is justified by the fact that theunavailability of complete technical information usually The Business Environment Factor and the Infrastructureresults in under estimating rather than over estimating Factor measure the ease of new plant installation inproject costs. different countries, taking into consideration the readiness of bureaucratic procedures and the availability and qualityLocation Factor of ports or roads.A location factor is an instantaneous, total cost factor usedfor converting a base project cost from one geographiclocation to another.Figure 17 – Location Factor Composition Location Factor Business Environment Material Index Labor Index Infrastructure Factor Factor Domestic Material Index Local Labor Index Ports, Roads, Airports Readiness of Relative Steel Prices Relative Salary and Rails (Availability Bureaucratic Labor Index Productivity and Quality) Procedures Taxes and Freight Expats Labor Communication Legal Protection of Rates Technologies Investors Spares Warehouse Taxes Imported Material Infrastructure Taxes and Freight Border Clearance Rates Local Incentives SparesSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 47

Labor and material, in turn, are the fundamental components for the construction of a plant and, for this reason, are intrinsically related to the plant costs. This concept is the basis for the methodology, which aims to represent the local discrepancies in labor and material. Productivity of workers and their hourly compensation are important for the project but, also, the qualification of workers is significant to estimating the need for foreign labor. On the other hand, local steel prices are similarly important, since they are largely representative of the costs of structures, piping, equipment, etc. Considering the contribution of labor in these components, workers’ qualifications are also indicative of the amount that needs to be imported. For both domestic and imported materials, a Spare Factor is considered, aiming to represent the need for spare rotors, seals and parts of rotating equipment. The sum of the corrected TFI distribution reflects the relative cost of the plant, this sum is multiplied by the Infrastructure and the Business Environment Factors, yielding the Location Factor. For the purpose of illustrating the conducted methodology, a block flow diagram is presented in Figure 17 in which the four major indexes are presented, along with some of their components. .Intratec | Technology Economics Methodology 48

Intratec | Appendix A. Mass Balance & Streams Properties50

Intratec | Appendix B. Utilities Consumption Breakdown52

Appendix C. Process Carbon FootprintThe process’ carbon footprint can be defined as the total The assumptions for the process carbon footprintamount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by the calculation are presented in Table 28 and the results areprocess operation. provided in Table 29.Although it is difficult to precisely account for the totalemissions generated by a process, it is possible to estimate Table 29 – CO2 e Emissions (ton/ton prod.)the major emissions, which can be divided into: Direct emissions. Emissions caused by process waste streams combusted in flares. Indirect emissions. The ones caused by utilities generation or consumption, such as the emissions due to using fuel in furnaces for heating process streams. Fuel used in steam boilers, electricity generation, and any other emissions in activities to support process operation are also considered indirect emissions. Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usIn order to estimate the direct emissions, it is necessary toknow the composition of the streams, as well as theoxidation factor. Equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2e) is a measure that describes the amount of CO2 that would have the sameEstimation of indirect emissions requires specific data, global warming potential of a given greenhouse gas, whenwhich depends on the plant location, such as the local measured over a specified timescale.electric power generation profile, and on the plantresources, such as the type of fuel used. All values and assumptions used in calculations are based on data provided by the Environment Protection Agency (EPA) Climate Leaders Program.Table 28 – Assumptions for CO2 e Emissions CalculationSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 53

Intratec | Appendix D. Equipment Detailed List & Sizing54 (m3/h) Actual gas flow rate Inlet

Table 32 – Heat ExchangersTAG NODesign gauge pressure(barg)Shell design temperature(deg C)Shell material CSTube design gauge pressure(barg)Tube design temperature(deg C) 55

Table 32 – Heat Exchangers (Cont.) TAG NO Shell design temperature (deg C) Shell material CS Tube design gauge pressure (barg) Tube design temperature (deg C)Intratec | Appendix D. Equipment Detailed List & Sizing 56

Table 32 – Heat Exchangers (Cont.)TAG NOShell design temperature(deg C)Shell material CSTube design gauge pressure(barg)Tube design temperature(deg C) 57

Casing material CS Design gauge pressure (barg) Design temperatureIntratec | Appendix D. Equipment Detailed List & Sizing (deg C) 58

Design gauge pressure (barg) Design temperature (deg C)Intratec | Appendix D. Equipment Detailed List & Sizing Design gauge pressure (barg) Design temperature (deg C) 60

Table 36 – Vessels & Tanks Specifications (Cont.)TAG NODesign gauge pressure(barg)Design temperature(deg C)Design gaugepressure (barg)Design temperature(deg C) 61

Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses Direct Costs Breakdown Figure 18 – ISBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type for Base Case Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Figure 19 – OSBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type for Base CaseIntratec | Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 62

Appendix F. Economic Assumptions Capital Expenditures Working Capital For a better description of working capital and other capital expenses components, as well as the location factors methodology, see the chapter “Technology Economics Table 39– Working Capital Assumptions for Base Case Methodology.” Construction Location Factors Table 38 – Detailed Construction Location Factor US GULF CHINA Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Table 40 – Other Capital Expenses Assumptions for Base CaseIntratec | Appendix F. Economic Assumptions Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us 64

The goal of depreciation is to allow a credit againstOperational Expenditures manufacturing costs, and hence taxes, for the non- recoverable capital expenses of an investment. TheFixed Costs depreciable portion of capital expense is the total fixed investment.Fixed costs are estimated based on the specificcharacteristics of the process. The fixed costs, like operating Table 41 shows the project depreciation value and thecharges and plant overhead, are typically calculated as a assumptions used in its calculation.percentage of the industrial labor costs, and G & A expensesare added as a percentage of the operating costs. Table 41 – Depreciation Value & AssumptionsTable 40 – Fixed Cost Assumptions Source: Intratec – www.intratec.usSource: Intratec – www.intratec.usFigure 20 – Historical EBITDA Margins Regional ComparisonSource: Intratec – www.intratec.us 65

Appendix G. Released Publications The list below is intended to be an easy and quick way to CONCEPTUAL DESIGN identify Intratec reports of interest. For a more complete and up-to-date list, please visit the Publications section on Membranes on Polypropylene Plants Vent Recovery: our website, www.intratec.us. The Report evaluates membrane units for the separation of monomer and nitrogen in PP plants, TECHNOLOGY ECONOMICS similar to the VaporSep® system commercialized by MTR. Propylene Production via Metathesis: Propylene production via metathesis from ethylene and butenes, Use of Propylene Splitter to Improve Polypropylene in a process similar to Lummus OCT. Business: The report assesses the opportunity of purchasing the less valued RG propylene to produce Propylene Production via Propane the PG propylene raw material used in a PP plant. Dehydrogenation: Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) process conducted in moving bed reactors, in a process similar to UOP OLEFLEX™. Propylene Production from Methanol: Propylene production from methanol, in a process is similar to Lurgi MTP®. Polypropylene Production via Gas Phase Process: A gas phase type process similar to the Dow UNIPOL™ PP process to produce both polypropylene homopolymer and random copolymer. Polypropylene Production via Gas Phase Process, Part 2: A gas phase type process similar to Lummus NOVOLEN® for production of both homopolymer and random copolymer. Sodium Hypochlorite Chemical Production: Sodium hypochlorite (bleach) production, in a widely used industrial process, similar to that employed by Solvay Chemicals, for example. Propylene Production via Propane Dehydrogenation, Part 2: Propane dehydrogenationIntratec | Appendix G. Released Publications (PDH) in fixed bed reactors, in a process is similar to Lummus CATOFIN®. Propylene Production via Propane Dehydrogenation, Part 3: Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) by applying oxydehydrogenation, in a process similar to the STAR PROCESS® licensed by Uhde. 66

Appendix H.Technology Economics Form Submitted by Client

Chemical Produced by the Technology to be StudiedDefine the main chemical product of your interest. Possible choices are presented below.Choose a Chemical Acetic Acid Acetone Acrylic Acid Acrylonitrile Adipic Acid Aniline Benzene Butadiene n-Butanol Isobutylene Caprolactam Chlorine Cumene Dimethyl Ether (DME) Ethanol Ethylene Bio-Ethylene Ethylene Glycol Ethylene Oxide Formaldehyde HDPE Isoprene LDPE LLDPE MDI Methanol Methyl Methacrylate Phenol Polypropylene (PP) Polybutylene Terephthalate Polystyrene (PS) Polyurethanes (PU) Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Propylene Propylene Glycol Propylene Oxide (PO) Terephthalic Acid Vinyl Chloride (VCM)If the main chemical product of your target technology is not found above, please check the "Technology Economic Form - Specialties".Chemical Process Technology to be StudiedIdentify the mature chemical process technology you would like us to assess. Intratec considers mature technologies the ones already used ona commercial scale plant. Technology Description Propane dehydrogenation technology similar to UOP Oleflex E. g. technology for propylene production from methanol - similar to Lurgi MTPCommercial Scale Unit. Inform the exact location of one commercial scale plant under operation. Plant Location: I dont know I know the location of a commercial plant: Yanbu, Saudi ArabiaIf there is no commercial scale plant based on the technology of your interest, you are referred to Intratecs Research Potential advisory serviceat www.intratec.us/advisory/research-potential/overviewIndustrial Unit DescriptionPlant Nominal Capacity Operating HoursInform the plant capacity to be considered in the study. Provide Inform the assumption for the number of hours the plantthe main product capacity in kta (thousands of metric tons per operates in a year.year of main chemical product). Plant Capacity 150 kta Operating Hours 8,000 h/year 300 kta Other (h/year) Other (kta) 550

Analysis DateDefine the date (quarter and year) that will be considered in the analysis. Our databases can provide consolidated values from the year 2000up to the last closed quarter, quarter-to-date values are estimated. Quarter Q3 Year 2011Storage FacilitiesDefine the assumptions employed for the storage facilities design. Products 20 days By-Products 20 days Raw Materials 20 days Other 0 Other 0 Other 0Utilities Supply FacilitiesThe construction of supply facilities for the utilities required (e.g. cooling tower, boiler unit, refrigeration unit) impacts the capital investmentfor the construction of the unit. Consider construction of supply facilities ? Yes NoGeneral Design ConditionsGeneral utilities and environmental conditions that may be relevant to the process simulation are presented below. Provide other assumptions ifyou deem necessary. Specification Unit Default Value User-specified value Cooling water temperature ºC 24 DSPEC1 Cooling water range ºC 11 DSPEC2 Steam (Low Pressure) bar abs 7 DSPEC3 Steam (Medium Pressure) bar abs 11 DSPEC4 Steam (High Pressure) bar abs 28 DSPEC5 Refrigerant (Ethylene) ºC -100 DSPEC6 Refrigerant (Propane) ºC -40 DSPEC7 Refrigerant (Propylene) ºC -45 DSPEC8 Dry Bulb Air Temperature ºC 38 DSPEC9 Wet Bulb Air Temperature ºC 25 DS10Industrial Unit LocationThe location of an industrial unit influences in prices for both construction and operation of the unit. In this study, the economicperformances of TWO similar units erected in different locations are compared.The first plant is located in the United States (US Gulf Coast) and the second location is defined by YOU.Plant Location I would like to keep the plant location confidential. Country (or region) to be considered. China E.g. Louisiana (USA), China or Saudi Arabia. Please define only one location.Plant Location Data I will use Intratecs Internal Database containing standard chemical prices and location factorsProvider (only for Germany, Japan, China or Brazil). I will provide location specific data. Please fill the Custom Location topic below.

Custom Location Description. Describe both capital investment and prices at your custom location.A) Capital Investment. Provide the relative capital cost at your custom location in comparison to the United States (U.S. Gulf Coast) Custom Location Relative Cost (%) 130% means that the capital costs in the custom location are 30% higher than the costs in the United States.B) Raw Materials Prices. Describe the raw material prices to be considered in the custom location. Item Description Price Unit Price Raw1 RU1 RP1 Raw2 RU2 RP2 Raw3 RU3 RP3 E.g. Propane USD/metric ton 420C) Product Prices. Describe the products prices to be considered in the custom location. Item Description Price Unit Price Prod1 PU1 PP1 Prod2 PU2 PP2 Prod3 PU3 PP3 E.g. Polypropylene USD/metric ton 1700D) Utilities Prices. Describe the utilities prices to be considered in the custom location. Item Description Price Unit Price Electricity UP1 Steam (Low Pressure) UP2 Steam (High Pressure) UP3 Fuel UP4 Clarified Water UP5 Util6 UU6 YP6 Util7 UU7 UP7 Util8 UU8 UP8E) Labor Prices. Describe the labor prices to be considered in the custom location. Item Description Price Unit Price Operating Labor USD/operator/hour LP1 Supervision Labor USD/supervisor/hour LP1F) Others. Describe any other price you deem necessary to be considered in the custom location. Item Description Price Unit Price Other1 OU1 OP1 Other2 OU2 OP2 Other3 OU3 OP3 E.g. Catalyst USD/metric ton 5000

Other RemarksIf you have any other comments, feel free to write them below: Co m m en ts:Complementary FilesAlong with this form, you may also upload any other chemical document deemed relevant for the description of the project, such asarticles, brochures, book sections, patents, etc. Multiple files may be uploaded.If you are filling this form offline please upload this form and any complementary files at www.intratec.us/advisory/technology-economics/order-commoditiesNon-Disclosure Period & PricingYou can keep your study confidential or get discounts, by allowing Intratec to disclose it to the market as a publication, after anagreed non-disclosure period, starting at the date you place your order.Choose an Option 6 months 24 months 36 months Never Disclosed Non-Disclosure Period Price 6 months $8,000 (9 x $899) Save 84% - Payment of our advisory service is conducted 24 months $28,000 (9 x $3,111) Save 44% automatically, in equal and pre-defined installments 36 months $40,000 (11 x $3,636) Save 20% - Every 15 days, an installment will be charged to your Never Disclosed $50,000 (13 x $3,846) credit card or PayPal account.Pay Less! Benefit From a 5% DiscountInform us the email address of the Intratec Agent that introduced you to our advisory services you will benefit from a 5% discount on the totalprice of your service. To know more about Intratec New Business Development Agents, please visit www.intratec.us/be-our-agent. Intratec Agent EmailEvaluate our Intratec Agent. Your opinion will be kept confidential. Unsatisfied Neutral Satisfied Knowledge about Intratec offerings and presentation skills Kindness and Helpfulness DOWNLOAD EXAMPLES OF FILLED FORMS HERE. DOWNLOAD A PDF VERSION OF THIS FORM HERE. NEED ASSISTANCE ? SEND AN EMAIL TO sales@intratec.us.v.1-mar-13

Technology EconomicsStandardized advisory services developedunder Intratec’s Consulting asPublications innovative approach.Technology Economics studies answermain questions surrounding processtechnologies:- What is the process? What equipment is necessary?- What are the raw materials and utilities consumption rates?- What are the capital and operating expenses breakdown?- What are the economic indicators?- In which regions is this technology more profitable?

Technology Economics: Propylene via Propane Dehydrogenation

by Intratec Solutions on Jun 28, 2012

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Technology Economics: Propylene via Propane Dehydrogenation Document Transcript