Uncw 2012 economic conference final draft

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  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/son2012.pdf
  • Uncw 2012 economic conference final draft

    1. 1. 2012 UNCW Economic Outlook Conference Residential Real Estate Market Brief
    2. 2. HOUSING MARKET SHOWING STRENGTH % Change NATIONAL SALES vs Last Year UP 9% LOCAL SALES UP 18% NATIONAL MEDIAN PRICES UP 9% LOCAL MEDIAN PRICES DOWN 1% 30 YR INTEREST RATE DOWN .65 POINTS NATIONAL INVENTORY DOWN 18%NATIONAL % OF DISTRESSED SALES LOCAL INVENTORY DOWN 11% DOWN 3% LOCAL % OF DISTRESSED SALES DOWN 3%
    3. 3. U.S. HOUSING SUMMARY 2012 (In Millions) 133 13 Housing Vacant Units 26 2.5 30-60 days delinquent 79 No Mortgage Owned 4.1 12 90+ days or in 120 Negative Equity foreclosure Households Occupied 53 with Mortgage 41 5.4 current with Equity 41 RentedSource: John Burns Real Estate Consulting
    4. 4. Supply & Demand
    5. 5. Case Shiller Pricing Index225.00200.00175.00150.00 According to the S&P Case Shiller price index, residential real125.00 estate values have returned to 2003 first quarter prices. That, in itself, says something. However, when you factor in mortgage rates, the case for buying a home today becomes even more compelling.100.00 2000 2003 2006 2012
    6. 6. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply Pricing SELLERS 1-2 Double Digit Appreciation MARKET 3-4 Single Digit Appreciation 5-6 Balanced MARKET BUYERS 7-8 Single Digit Depreciation 9+ Double Digit Depreciation1816141210 8 6 4 2 National Wilmington Area 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May un Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep NAR
    7. 7. Projected Annual % Change in Home Prices Source 2012 2013 2014 Home Price Expectation Survey -.4 1.4 2.6 Urban Land Institute Flat 2.0 3.5 Demand Institute Study 1.0 1.8 2.5
    8. 8. Case Shiller Pricing Index225.00200.00175.00150.00 At 3% gain per year, it would take 12 years for current125.00 prices to return to 2006 levels100.00 2000 2006 2012 2024
    9. 9. Continued Pressure on PricesAs long as distressed homes remain a significant portion ofhomes for sale, prices for non-distressed homes will beunder pressure to converge with distressed prices. Radar Logic 5/31/2012
    10. 10. Existing Home Sales 12,247 Homes Sell Every Day and 8,940 Buyers Receive a Mortgage NAR 5/2012
    11. 11. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed5.25 54.75 4.54.25 43.75 1/01/2011 Today Federal Reserve
    12. 12. Cost of Owning a Home (Last 20yrs) Mortgage Payment-to- Payment-to-Year Payment Income Ratio Rent Ratio (2011 Dollars)1990 $1,183 .28 1.452000 $1,125 .24 1.372006 $1,240 .28 1.442011 $669 .15 .77 Joint Center For Housing Studies Of Harvard University 6/2012
    13. 13. Where Do You Want to Invest Your $Over the Next 12 Years?50 ROI January 2000 – September 2012 42%30 20%10 1%-10-30 -22%-50 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

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