Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
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Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)

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Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)

Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs)
Tali Trigg, Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
14 March 2012

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  • Here you see the very strong rates of change in the sales of advanced vehicles in BLUE Map. From today, we rapidly ramp up EV and PHEV sales. From about 2020 we start sales of fuel cell vehicles. By 2050 there are very few conventional ICE vehicles being sold anywhere in the world.
  • Top-10 countries account for 90% NGV Only 1 OECD country
  • This figure, which is based on existing announcements from press reports and other sources for EV and PHEV sales and stock targets, shows that sales could reach 7 million (Korea just announced a target of 1 million vehicles by 2020). The Electric Vehicles Initiative could establish an ongoing tracking system of this and other important indicators, working with countries and other stakeholders, and IEA is ready to take lead on this task.The announcements are very encouraging and if we can reach this 2020 sales shown here, we would be well positioned to reach the ETP BLUE Map CO2 reduction targets for LDVs, which reflects a similar rate of ramp-up. In BLUE Map, sales of Evs, PHEVs, and FCVs reaches over 100 million per year by 2050, with close to 1 billion on the road in that year.
  • This figure, which is based on existing announcements from press reports and other sources for EV and PHEV sales and stock targets, shows that sales could reach 7 million (Korea just announced a target of 1 million vehicles by 2020). The Electric Vehicles Initiative could establish an ongoing tracking system of this and other important indicators, working with countries and other stakeholders, and IEA is ready to take lead on this task.The announcements are very encouraging and if we can reach this 2020 sales shown here, we would be well positioned to reach the ETP BLUE Map CO2 reduction targets for LDVs, which reflects a similar rate of ramp-up. In BLUE Map, sales of Evs, PHEVs, and FCVs reaches over 100 million per year by 2050, with close to 1 billion on the road in that year.
  • Biofuels as well as biomass (in particular wood pellets) are already traded internationally todayTo enhance international trade, it will be important to : reduce and abolish trade barriers such as import/export tariffs Align different technical standards for fuels and biomass align sustainability certification internationally, so that producers need only comply with one certification scheme in order to export to different regionsBiofuels Use in BLUE Map25% of global transport fuel use in 2050, 40% in LACLAC countries use more cane ethanol, less cellulosic than average, but also have large demand growth for biodieselBiofuel use will increase in all regionsBiofuel demand is strongest in OECD countries until 2020In 2050, non-OECD countries account for 70% of total biofuel consumptionTrade will be vital to supply biomass and fuels to regions with strong demand
  • This figure, which is based on existing announcements from press reports and other sources for EV and PHEV sales and stock targets, shows that sales could reach 7 million (Korea just announced a target of 1 million vehicles by 2020). The Electric Vehicles Initiative could establish an ongoing tracking system of this and other important indicators, working with countries and other stakeholders, and IEA is ready to take lead on this task.The announcements are very encouraging and if we can reach this 2020 sales shown here, we would be well positioned to reach the ETP BLUE Map CO2 reduction targets for LDVs, which reflects a similar rate of ramp-up. In BLUE Map, sales of Evs, PHEVs, and FCVs reaches over 100 million per year by 2050, with close to 1 billion on the road in that year.

Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs) Promoting the Uptake of Low Emission Vehicles (LEVs) Presentation Transcript

  • The Cars of Tomorrow ConferenceMelbourne, Australia, 14 March 2012Promoting the uptake ofLow Emission Vehicles (LEVs)Tali TriggEnergy Technology Policy Division www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • GLOBAL CONTEXT www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • The future of oil will be driven by transport Change in primary oil demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2009-2035 OECD Transport China Industry Other non-OECD Buildings and Inter-regional (bunkers) agriculture Other -5 0 5 10 15 20 mb/d All of the growth in oil use comes from non-OECD countries, mainly for transport, more than offsetting declines in the OECD in all sectors© OECD/IEA 2010
  • The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives calls for CO2 cuts to 50% below 2009 levels by 2050 (25% for transport)  To achieve this, we need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change and energy security challenges.  A key part of this will be a revolution in transport to new technology vehicles and new fuels  Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.  How fast can we ramp up sales of low emission vehicles?  What infrastructure will be needed, by when?  What policies are needed?  What is the role of national governments, municipal governments, electric utilities, auto makers and others?© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Transport GHG emission wedges (well-to-wheel CO2-eq) Baseline Worldwide, GHGs increase from 7 to over 16 Gt in the Baseline in 2050 and to over 19 Gt in the High Baseline. The combination of technology changes and modal shift yields a reduction to about 5 Gt in BLUE Map/Shifts.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Passenger LDV sales by technology type and scenario: BLUE Map will be VERY challenging Million sales / year In the ETP Baseline, sales are mainly conventional vehicles through 2050; hybrids reach about 20% of sales In BLUE Map, strong penetration of hybrids by 2015, PHEVs and EVs by 2020, FCVs after 2025. By 2050, plug-in vehicles account for more than two-thirds of all sales.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • CNG-powered trucks & buses could help reduce oil needs for transport Oil savings from use of natural gas in road transport by region in the New Policies Scenario Latin America 2009 OECD North America 2035 Other Asia India Middle East China OECD Europe E. Europe/Eurasia OECD Pacific Africa 0 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 mb/d Global CNG use, mainly in trucks & buses, triples between 2008 & 2035 to over 60 bcm, saving more than 1 mb/d by 2035© OECD/IEA 2010
  • NGVs: Current status of top 10 countries Country Number Market Number of Market share Share in of NGV share stations road fuel domestic gas (%) consumption consumption (%) (%) 1 Pakistan 2,250,100 32 3,000 15 13 2 Argentina 1,813,777 23 1,851 18 7 3 Iran 1,734,431 14 1,058 2 0 4 Brazil 1,631,173 11 1,777 4 10 5 India 700,000 4 181 3 1 6 Italy 587,577 2 690 1 1 7 China 500,000 1 1,453 0 2 8 Colombia 299,640 23 485 5 5 9 Ukraine 200,019 2 91 1 1 10 Bangladesh 200,000 51 500 n/a 2© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: IANGV, NGVA Europe, NGV Communications Group, IEA
  • Electric and Advanced Vehicles  IEA believes these will have to play a major role in reaching low CO2 levels, especially after 2020…  … but fuel economy is the low-hanging fruit  Sales of LEVs ramp-up must begin now in order to reach long term targets  Battery costs and characteristics remain the key technical issue, but for how long?  Will we need fuel cell vehicles, H2?  This may also depend on batteries© OECD/IEA 2010
  • GHG intensity of electricity production By 2050, world electricity generation radically decarbonised in ETP BLUE Map – but not in Baseline.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Australian CO2 intensity of electricity production 1(2) In the 4 degree scenario (4DS) PHEVs perform well in the near- term, but can only reach their full potential by 2050 if the electricity sector is decarbonised.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Australian CO2 intensity of electricity production 2(2) In the 2 degree scenario (2DS) PHEVs and EVs offer significant CO2 reduction potential earlier compared to 4DS.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Fuel Economy Initiatives www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI)  Launched on 4 March 2009 in Geneva by IEA, ITF, UNEP, and the FIA Foundation  GOAL: reduction in vehicle fuel consumption per km of 50% by 2050 (for the vehicle stock) compared to 2005  Roughly equivalent to a 50% reduction by 2030 for new sales, worldwide  Requires an average improvement 3% per year for 25 years!  Four main activity areas:  Analysis of global fuel economy trends and potential  Outreach to governments, assistance in policy development  Outreach to stakeholders, dialogue to improve coordination  Information campaigns© OECD/IEA 2010
  • GFEI Analysis The global average was about 8 L/100km in 2005. It improved to below 7.7 in 2008. But the rate of change was well less than that needed to hit GFEI targets. Annual Change 2005 2008 2005-2008 Global Fuel 8.04 7.65 -1.6% Average Economy (lge/100km) GFEI 8.04 4.02 -2.7% Objective Required 2005 2030 Annual Change 2005-2030© OECD/IEA 2010
  • France’s “Bonus/Malus”  Since 2006, car labeling for new vehicles is compulsory at dealerships  Label value based on NEDC test cycle fuel economy  Political commitment after the « Grenelle de l’environnement »  French OEMs good at small diesel cars© OECD/IEA 2010
  • The original Bonus/Malus  It was announced in Sept 2007, to start in January 2008, designed to be revenue neutral  -5gCO2/km every 2 years  Special Bonus for hybrids and LPG : 2000 € (If under 110 gCO2/km) CO2, g/km Barème, € >250 2600 De 201 à 250 1600 Malus De 166 à 200 750 De 161 à 165 200 De 131 à 160 0 De 121 à 130 200 De 101 à 120 700 Bonus De 61 à 100 1000 <60 5000© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Introduction of Impact on sales bonus/malus Jan 2008  Immediate and lasting© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Bonus/Malus conclusions  Bonus/Malus had an immediate and substantial effect on consumer purchase behavior (was not considered a new tax)  Information (labels) was already well installed  Mid term visibility of feebate evolution great asset for OEMs; better product planning  Economic neutrality difficult to reach: design prior to feebate launch key to success  France has Europe’s most efficient new vehicle fleet (2009) as number of vehicle models meeting the standards steadily increased© OECD/IEA 2010
  • International Cooperation:Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • Electric Vehicles Initiative  Initiative announced at the Clean Energy Ministerial in Washington DC, July 2010  Kick-off meeting was held in Paris 29 Sept/1 Oct 2010  14 countries: China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States  Together these countries account for about 80% of world’s vehicle demand, probably most of EV sales in coming years  International Energy Agency serves in a facilitator role  Three primary objectives:  Common data collection/analysis efforts  Greater RD&D collaboration  City forum that links cities within EVI countries (e.g., City Casebook)  Recent events: Pilot Cities conference in Shanghai, April 2011  Upcoming Event: EVI Meeting in Los Angeles, May 2012© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales through 2020, based on national targets Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Projected electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle stock (cumulative sales) through 2020, based on national targets Figure based on announced national sales and stock targets, with assumed 20% annual sales growth after target is met, if target is before 2020 (e.g. China’s target is for end of 2011).© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Government Targets and PHEV/EV Production/Sales as Reported by OEMs Each production/sale shown here is assumed to be constant after the year OEM announced/reported.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • World PHEV/EV Sales in 2011 Source: MarkLines Database • Took six years for HEVs to achieve what it took EVs in one year (2011) • The Fukushima disaster created a supply bottleneck that may misrepresent actual demand of 2011© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Spending by EVI countries 2008-2011 Incomplete numbers nevertheless give indications of EV-spending strategies pursued by countries© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Subsidy scenario 2010-2020 • $50 billion between 2010-2020 is 0.1% of $33 trillion spent on conventional vehicles and fuels • If each conventional car sold in the next 10 years were taxed at $50, this would pay for the entire EV rollout over the coming decade© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Demonstration and pilot projects www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • Clean fleet initiatives  Several countries, regions and cities are incentivizing commercial fleets to “go clean” through improving fuel economy, integrating new technology vehicles and reducing overall fuel use (e.g., car rental companies)  France’s postal office, “La Poste,” has ordered 10,000 electric vehicles  The US National Clean Fleets Partnership now includes 12% of the US commercial fleet, aiming to reduce CO2 emissions through efficiency measures and clean technologies  Victorian Government’s Electric Vehicle Trial including training workshops for fleet managers -> good example of importance of stakeholder education  In total, private fleet purchases of EVs alone, now total 170,000 vehicles© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Berlin: Electric Mobility Solutions  Mini E trial with 70 vehicles to add grid stability from renewable wind energy  Initiative 120 Project is a concept demonstration to try out alternative technologies in police cars  The E-City Logistics Project demonstrated electric logistical applications and extended delivery hours due to low noise© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Amsterdam: Ambitious Near-Term Source: EVI  750 EVs today and 3,000/10,000 by 2012/2015  Today, 350 public charging stations, highest rate per inhabitant worldwide; by 2013, 1,000 points  City’s EV charging network is first worldwide to provide geo-information in real-time and as open data© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Stockholm: Established charging Source: EVI  65% of households already have access to block heaters; 140 public charging points; 200 slow chargers in newest parking garage (picture)  Environmental zones for heavy trucks (Amsterdam too)  (Sweden) Tax exemption (5 years) and super credit© OECD/IEA 2010 (4,000 Euros)
  • Conclusions www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • Conclusions  Without policy interventions oil use and related CO2 emissions worldwide could double by 2050  Even if we hit targets of 20 million EVs on the road by 2020, that will only represent 2% of vehicles worldwide and well less than 1% of electricity demand, thus:  We will just be reaching the point where real “take off” can happen, but intermediate and long-term targets cannot be met without adequate preparation and ramp-up time -> temporal strategy essential  We can change this picture dramatically and cut transport CO2 below current levels via a combination of  Strong efficiency improvements in fuel economy (50% improvement by 2030) and adoption of alternatives fuels  Rapid uptake of advanced technology vehicles (e.g., EVs, FCVs), but technology-neutral policies will achieve the best results -> avoid silver bullet bias© OECD/IEA 2010
  • THANK YOU!tali.trigg@iea.org www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2010
  • Backup Slides© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Role of Biofuels  In global baseline, biofuels now about 1.5%, reach 3% in 2030, 4% in 2050, mostly 1st gen  In LAC, its 8%, reaching 10% by 2030, 11% by 2050  BLUE Map, biofuels reach about 10% of transport fuels in 2030, 25% in 2050  In LAC, biofuels reach nearly 20% in 2030, 40% in 2050  Cane to ethanol (and eventually cane-biodiesel?) continues to be very important in LAC  After 2030 main growth for trucks, ships aircraft  After 2020, all new biofuels are 2nd generation (and cane)  Costs reach competitive levels with $120/bbl oil by 2020-2025© OECD/IEA 2010
  • EVI Activities The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) provides a forum for global cooperation on the development and deployment of electric vehicles (EVs). The initiative seeks to facilitate the global deployment of at least 20 million EVs by 2020, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, by accomplishing the following: • Encouraging the development of national deployment goals • Launching pilot cities to promote EV demonstrations in urban areas, and share experiences and lessons learned • Sharing information on funding levels and research and development programs to ensure that the most crucial global gaps in vehicle technology development are being addressed • Exchanging information on EV deployment targets, as well as best practices and policies, to enable progress toward those targets • Engaging private sector stakeholders to focus on the benefits of EV procurement for corporate fleets and public-private investments in technology innovation© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Acceptability  Has not been perceived as « another tax »  Scheme widely acceptedsmaller  Customer shifted towards vehicle  Dieselization raised in 2008, then decreased© OECD/IEA 2010
  • OEMs answer  Number of models subjected to Bonus increased quickly© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Cost of the scheme  In 2008, the scheme cost the government (and taxpayers) 214 million €  Shift to smaller, cheaper vehicles also generated VAT losses (est. an extra 300 million €)  In 2009, 525 million €  It was coupled with a scrapping scheme incentive© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Adjustement to the scheme  Economic neutrality for the public finance failed  2010 bonus changed  Extra steps in 2011, more to come in 2012© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Cost of the scheme, 2010  Still the cost of the scheme in 2010 was far from neutrality  Hence even tougher bonuses for 2011 and 2012© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Impact on average new vehicle fleet  Trend has been accelerated© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: Ademe
  • Impact on average fleet  Trend has been accelerated  Gasoline cars are more CO2-efficient than Diesel cars in 2009  In 2009, France has the most efficient new vehicle fleet in Europe© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: Ademe
  • Growth of slow and fast charging points in EVI countries, 2008-2011 Not all data points have been submitted by all EVI members which results in underreporting.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Shown another way© OECD/IEA 2010