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Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report
 

Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report

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Presentation from the international press launch – WEO Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report

Presentation from the international press launch – WEO Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report

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    Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report Presentation Transcript

    • 9 October, London© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Iraq: the energy context  Oil & natural gas resources are immense & the costs of production are among the lowest in the world  Already the world’s 3rd largest oil exporter, with plans to expand oil & natural gas production rapidly  Natural gas is an under-utilised resource – more than half of the natural gas produced is flared  Catching up & keeping pace with rising demand for electricity is critical to national development  Energy infrastructure & institutions, while improving, continue to be a serious constraint:  Legacy of damage & poor maintenance  Lack of consensus on governance of the hydrocarbons sector© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Oil is the cornerstone of Iraq’s economy GDP, share of oil export revenues, population in 2011 $578 billion $482 billion $177 billion $115 billion GDP Oil export revenues 72% 55% 24% 52% Iraq Kuwait Iran Saudi Arabia 31 million 3 million 75 million 28 million Population Twin challenges for Iraq are to increase its oil revenues & then to use them to support greater diversification of its economy© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Oil is poised for a major expansion Iraq oil production Iraq oil exports mb/d 9 mb/d 9 Other North 8 Centre 8 Asia 7 South 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035 Production more than doubles by 2020 & reaches more than 8 mb/d by 2035, with Iraq becoming a major supplier to Asian markets, especially to China & India© OECD/IEA 2012
    • What will determine the pace of growth?  Political consensus on oil governance & legal framework  Speed & coordination of investment along the supply chain  Avoiding bottlenecks in storage & transportation  Sufficient water to support oil production  Drilling rigs & expertise  Iraq’s long-term oil & natural gas development strategy  Our High Case of 9 mb/d by 2020 would equal the highest sustained growth in the history of the oil industry  International market conditions© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Iraq leads global oil production growth Growth in oil production, 2011-2035 Non-OPEC 12% Iraq 45% Rest of OPEC 42% Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Iraq takes its place on the global gas map Growth in key natural gas producers, 2011-2035 China Russia United States Australia Turkmenistan Iraq Qatar Iran Brazil Algeria 50 100 150 200 250 bcm Iraq can potentially provide a very cost-competitive gas supply by pipeline to neighbouring countries or to Europe and – via liquefied natural gas – to Asia© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Gas moves from sideshow to centre stage Iraq’s natural gas balance bcm 100 Production 80 Demand 60 40 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Reductions in gas flaring & development of new gas fields will be needed to meet Iraq’s growing domestic needs & its export ambitions© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Catching up with power demand Iraq electricity generation TWh 300 Shortfall in generation 250 Hydro & other renewables Natural gas 200 Oil 150 100 50 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Oil helps to eliminate the power deficit in 2015. But without a longer-term shift to gas-fired power, Iraq would forego more than $500 billion in oil export revenue© OECD/IEA 2012
    • A chance to transform Iraq’s prospects Iraq annual oil and natural gas revenues Billion dollars 350 (2011) 300 250 200 150 100 50 2012 2020 2035 $5 trillion in cumulative export receipts is 10% of all revenues from global oil trade; Iraq’s GDP in 2035 rises to the level of Saudi Arabia today© OECD/IEA 2012
    • A step-change in energy investment Iraq annual average requirement for energy investment Billion dollars 30 (2011) Natural gas 25 Electricity Oil 20 15 10 5 2011 2012-2020 2021-2035 The overall investment bill of $530 billion is 10% of oil export revenues, but annual spending needs to increase quickly over the current decade© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Delay would come at a high price Iraq oil production profiles mb/d 10 Central Scenario 8 6 Delayed Case 4 2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 If investment & oil production growth is delayed then global oil markets tighten, with prices $15 higher in 2035, & Iraq’s cumulative GDP would be $3 trillion lower© OECD/IEA 2012
    • Iraq’s transformationhas global implications  With 45% of the anticipated growth in global production to 2035, Iraq is key to the long-term outlook for oil markets  Successful oil & gas development requires a shared vision for the sector & efforts to coordinate investment all along the supply chain  Delay would come at a high cost to Iraq and to international markets  Productive use of natural gas is critical to a healthy domestic balance  Oil export revenues can provide the foundations for a modern and prosperous Iraqi economy© OECD/IEA 2012