Meeting Global Energy Challenges through Technology

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Ambassador Richard Jones …

Ambassador Richard Jones
Deputy Executive Director, IEA
Leeds University
21 March 2012

More in: Technology , Business
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  • The transition to a low-carbon economy will not only tackle climate change, but can also provide energy security benefits for many countries that are heavily dependent on fossil energy imports.In the BLUE Map scenario, the world’s dependency on fossil fuels in primary energy consumption is reduced from 81% today to 46% in 2050. Coal, oil and gas demand in 2050 are all lower than today. For instance, global oil consumption is reduced by about 27% in 2050 compared to current levels. This saving is roughly equivalent to the present annual oil consumption of the US and Canada combined.Nuclear, biomass and other forms of renewable energy will meet an increasing share of our primary energy needs. Even so, fossil fuels will remain an important element of the world’s energy supply for the foreseeable future.
  • The transition to a low-carbon economy could herald a new age of electrification.In the baseline scenario, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the power sector, accounting for around two-thirds of global electricity generation in 2050. In the Blue Map Scenario, the power sector will be essentially decarbonised. More specifically, renewables will represent almost half of global electricity production, with nuclear accounting for a quarter and the rest from fossil fuels, mostly combined with CCS.We recognise though that the future is inherently uncertain – and so we have looked at other possible combinations of technologies that can deliver decarbonised electricity generation. You see here the key features of a high renewables scenario and a high nuclear case, which are examined in more detail in the publication itself.Achieving a decarbonised electricity supply opens up the possibility of using electrification as an emissions reduction option in the end-use sectors. Today electricity represents 17% of final energy demand. In the BLUE Map scenario it rises even further to reach 28% by 2050. This is due particularly to a significant penetration of electric vehicles in transport, but other electrical uses, such as heat pumps in buildings, gain an increasing share.
  • Achieving a decarbonised power sector will require massive investments in low carbon power generation technologies as shown in the figure.For example we will need to add on average each year from 2010 to 2050: 35 coal plants with CCS 30 nuclear plants 12 000 wind turbines and 55 concentrating solar plants.This rate of growth will be very challenging, but at the same time represents a tremendous business opportunity for those developing low carbon technologies and a way to spur the green growth that our economies require.

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  • 1. Meeting Global Energy Challenges through Technology Leeds University, 21 March 2012 Ambassador Richard Jones Deputy Executive Director, IEA © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 2. The context  The world needs an energy technology revolution to satisfy its energy needs in ways ENERGYTECHNOLOGY that are secure, affordable and sustainable.PERSPECTIVES 2010  Unprecedented rates of change in new Scenarios & Strategies technology uptake will be needed to 2050  There are some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.  Which technologies can play a role?  What are the costs and benefits?  What policies are needed? © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 3. Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios 60 ENERGY Gt CO2TECHNOLOGY 50PERSPECTIVES Other 2010 40 Buildings Scenarios & Transport Strategies 30 to 2050 Industry 20 Other transformation Power generation 10 0 2007 2030 2050 2030 2050 Baseline BLUE Map Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 4. World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by region 60 Gt CO2 ENERGY Baseline emissions 57 Gt 55 Other Non-OECD 19%TECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 50 Other OME 14% 2010 45 India 12% 40 Scenarios & Strategies 35 China 27% to 2050 30 Other OECD 10% 25 OECD Europe 7% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt United States 11% 10 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD countries. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 5. Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions ENERGY Gt CO2 60 Baseline emissions 57 GtTECHNOLOGY 55 CCS 19%PERSPECTIVES 50 2010 Renewables 17% 45 Scenarios & 40 Nuclear 6% Strategies to 2050 35 30 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% 25 End-use fuel switching 15% 20 15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt End-use fuel and electricity 10 efficiency 38% 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 6. Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario ENERGY 8 000TECHNOLOGY Mtoe 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050PERSPECTIVES 7 000 2010 6 000 Scenarios & 5 000 -27% Strategies 4 000 to 2050 -36% 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 7. Decarbonising the power sector – a new age of electrification? 50 PWh Other ENERGY 45TECHNOLOGY SolarPERSPECTIVES 40 Wind 2010 35 Biomass+CCS Scenarios & Biomass and waste Strategies 30 to 2050 Hydro 25 Nuclear 20 Natural gas+CCS 15 Natural gas Oil 10 Coal+CCS 5 Coal 0 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map BLUE High BLUE High Ren 2050 Nuclear 2050 2050 A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity © OECD/IEA - 2010 sector.
  • 8. Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario ENERGY Present rate Gap to reach BLUE MapTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES Coal-fired with CCS 35 plants (500 MW) 2010 Gas-fired with CCS 20 plants (500 MW) Nuclear Historical high 30 plants (1 000 MW) Scenarios & Strategies Hydro 2/3 of Three Gorges Dam to 2050 Biomass plants 200 plants (50 MW) Wind-onshore 12 000 turbines (4 MW) Wind-offshore 3 600 turbines (4 MW) Geothermal 45 units (100 MW) Solar PV 325 million m 2 solar panels Solar CSP 55 CSP plants (250 MW) 0 10 20 30 40 50 GW/ yr Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 9. Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050 Greater integration of 2.50 renewables ENERGY Gt CO2 / yr 2.25TECHNOLOGY Facilitation of electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehiclesPERSPECTIVES 2.00 2010 0.34- 0.69 Energy savings from peak load 1.75 management Scenarios & 1.50 Strategies Continuous commissioning of to 2050 1.25 service sector loads 0.31- 0.62 1.00 0.00- 0.01 Accelerated deployment of energy efficiency programs 0.75 0.01- 0.05 0.07- 0.27 Reduced line losses (voltage 0.50 control) 0.03- 0.25 0.25 Direct feedback on energy usage 0.09- 0.27 0.00 Direct reductions Enabled reductions Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 10. Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by technology ENERGY Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenarioTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 200 200 million sales/ yr 2010 180 180 Hydrogen fuel cell Scenarios & 160 160 Hydrogen hybrid Strategies 140 140 Electricity to 2050 120 120 CNG and LPG 100 100 Plug-in hybrid diesel 80 80 Plug-in hybrid gasoline 60 60 Hybrid diesel 40 40 Hybrid gasoline 20 20 Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug-in hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030. © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 11. Additional investment and fuel savings, 2010-2050 ENERGY Commercial Fuel savings Total InvestmentTECHNOLOGY ResidentialPERSPECTIVES Undiscounted 2010 10% discount 3% discount Transport 60 USD trillion (2010-2050) Scenarios & Industry Strategies 40 to 2050 20 Power distribution 0 Power transmission -20 Power generation -40 -60 Biomass and waste -80 Natural gas -100 Oil -120 Coal -140 Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional © OECD/IEA - 2010 investment required.
  • 12. Key Technology Needs  We will move toward ever more electrification, ENERGYTECHNOLOGY and greater use of variable renewable powerPERSPECTIVES sources 2010 Scenarios & Strategies  Need much smarter grid management and end use to 2050 signals  There are really only 3 potential zero carbon energy carriers: electricity, hydrogen, biofuels  Two of these face enormous challenges  Coal‘s use in power generation and industry will remain high for decades – we must make progress on deploying CCS © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 13. ETP 2012 Early release at CEM3 ENERGY Clean Energy Progress Report 2011TECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Will be updated and improved in 2012 Featured as ETP 2012 early release February 25-26 2011 © OECD/IEA - 2010
  • 14. Technology roadmaps• 12 Roadmaps and How to Guide published• Roadmaps provide answers: – Where is the technology today? – What is the deployment pathway needed? – What are the priority near term actions?• Next steps – 7 more roadmaps in 2012; implementation: support national roadmap development, track progress Energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 15. Energy Technology Roadmaps Regional & National level 1. How2Guide (H2G) 4. Roadmap development • Stakeholder engagement ENERGY • Indirect support • Capture knowledgeTECHNOLOGY • Direct support • Develop the toolsPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Tech- Platform Activities 3. Training 2. Dialogue workshops • Bi-lateral • Disseminate H2G content • Multi-lateral • International best practice • Train The Trainer (T3) • Case studies © OECD/IEA - 2010© OECD/IEA 2012
  • 16. ENERGYTECHNOLOGY GLOBAL ENERGY R&D NETWORKPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & 5,000 scientists, experts, researchers, consultants Strategies to 2050 500 universities, labs, government offices, companies, consultants Link public and private Link IEA members and non-members © OECD/IEA - 2010©OECD/IEA 2011
  • 17. ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Thank You www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp © OECD/IEA - 2010