Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth
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Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth

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Dr. Fatih Birol

Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist for the International Energy Agency
13 March 2012
Sustainable Energy for All (#SE4A)
Conference
Venice

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Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth Presentation Transcript

  • Energy for all will not cost the earth Dr Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist 13 March 2012© OECD/IEA 2011
  • The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends  Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention  Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty  MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans  Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions:  CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high  energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year  spending on oil imports is near record highs© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand 4 500 Mtoe 4 000 China 3 500 India 3 000 Other developing Asia 2 500 Russia Middle East 2 000 Rest of world 1 500 OECD 1 000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth© OECD/IEA 2011 View slide
  • Energy poverty is widespread Million people without electricity Million people without clean cooking facilities Sub-Saharan Africa China 8 423 Rest of Latin America 585 653 developing India Asia 31 85 289 379 836 661 1.3 billion people in the world live without electricity and 2.7 billion live without clean cooking facilities© OECD/IEA 2011 View slide
  • Investment today is far from enough $9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009 14% 22% Bilateral Official Development Assistance Multilateral organisations Developing country governments 34% Private sector finance 31% Current investment relies heavily on overseas development aid© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Giving modern energy to the world will not cost the earth 5.3 x more 2009 Energy for All Case Other Countries Sub- Saharan Africa 2010-2030 0 10 20 30 40 50 Billion dollars (2010) Investment needs to grow by more than five-times to $48 billion a year – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa© OECD/IEA 2011
  • All sources of finance need to grow 50 Billion dollars (2010) Private finance 40 Developing country governments Multilateral development banks 30 Bilateral official development assistance 20 10 0 2009 Energy for All Case Private sector investment needs to grow the most, but public authorities must provide a supportive investment climate© OECD/IEA 2011
  • All fuels have a role to play Additional electricity generation by grid solution and fuel in 2030 On-grid generation Mini-grid and off-grid generation 368 TWh 370 TWh 10% 7% 5% Fossil fuels Solar 6% Nuclear 36% 28% Small hydro Hydro Biomass 14% 63% Wind Wind 3% Solar Diesel Other renewables 8% 21% A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Implications of modern energy for all 20 40 Additional energy demand in the Gigatonnes Billion tonnes of oil equivalent 0.7% 1.1% Energy for All Case 15 30 Additional CO2 emissions in the Energy for All Case 10 20 5 10 0 0 World energy World CO2 demand emissions 2030 2030 Achieving modern energy for all would only have a negligible impact on energy security and climate change© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Modern energy brings health benefits Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases 2.5 Million 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Malaria Tuberculosis Smoke from HIV/AIDS biomass Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable to indoor air pollution from burning biomass© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Concluding remarks  In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & population will push energy needs higher  Modern energy is critical to social and economic development goals  Affordable and reliable modern energy for all by 2030 is achievable  Adopt a clear statement that modern energy access is a political priority  Mobilise additional public and private investment in universal access  National governments need to adopt strong governance and regulatory frameworks and invest in internal capacity building  The public sector should leverage greater private sector investment where the commercial case is marginal  World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access for a decade and will continue to do so in WEO-2012© OECD/IEA 2011