WEO-2012: Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets

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Dr. Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist
Energy Business Council
12 June 2012 Paris

Published in: Technology, Business
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WEO-2012: Current Trends in Renewable Energy Markets

  1. WEO-2012: Current Trends inRenewable Energy Markets Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Energy Business Council, 12 June, Paris © OECD/IEA 2012
  2. Recent CO2 emissions development 2.0 34 Annual CO2 emissions change (Gt CO2) Gt CO2 Maximum allowed emissions in 450 scenario Non-OECD 32 OECD 1.5 Global annual CO2 emissions 30 (right axis) 1.0 28 0.5 26 0 24 -0.5 22 -1.0 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The door to the 2°C trajectory is about to be closed unless major & bold new policies are introduced© OECD/IEA 2012
  3. Energy efficiency is crucial for energy security & climate change 1.0% Annual change in global energy intensity 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001- 2009 2010 1980 1990 2000 2008 Global energy efficiency development is going in the wrong direction© OECD/IEA 2012
  4. US electricity generation growth, 2006-2011 Natural gas Renewables Nuclear Oil Coal -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 TWh Over the past 5 years, natural gas & renewables were the leading sources of incremental electricity generation in the United States© OECD/IEA 2012
  5. Recent trend in global non-hydro renewable capacity additions 90 45% Capacity additions (GW) Other renewables 80 40% Biomass Solar PV 70 35% Wind 60 30% 50 25% % of non-hydro renewables On total capacity additions 40 20% (right axis) 30 15% 20 10% 10 5% 0 0% 2009 2010 2011 Solar photovoltaic and wind lead the way but the future of renewables hinges mainly on government policies© OECD/IEA 2012
  6. Power sector investment focuses on renewables Investment in new power plants and infrastructure in the WEO-2011 New Policies Scenario Oil 0.5% Nuclear 7% Gas Coal 5% Other 6% 11% Solar PV 7% Renewables 35% Hydro 8% Transmission & distribution Wind 13% 42% 2011-2035: $16.9 trillion Renewables make up 60% of investment in new power plants, led by wind, solar PV & hydro, even though they represent only half of the capacity additions© OECD/IEA 2012
  7. WEO-2012 work on renewables  A full update of renewables energy projections by technology, sector and region to 2035 in three scenarios  Quantification of total incentives to support renewables in the power generation and transport sectors  Impact of the renewable support schemes on electricity end-user prices  Additional investments in electricity grids and capacity requirements to maintain the adequacy of electricity systems  A new biomass supply model to estimate: global trade, development of biofuels, and the contribution of biomass to the global energy mix© OECD/IEA 2012

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