Renewable Energy: An IEA Perspective
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Renewable Energy: An IEA Perspective

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Amb. Richard Jones

Amb. Richard Jones
Deputy Executive Director
International Energy Agency
10-11 May 2012
Santiago, Chile

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Renewable Energy: An IEA Perspective Renewable Energy: An IEA Perspective Presentation Transcript

  • Renewable EnergyAn IEA PerspectiveAmb. Richard H. JonesDeputy Executive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyVI Encuentro Internacional de Energías Renovables Santiago, Chile, 10-11 May 2012 © OECD/IEA 2010
  • Contents  Recent trends  Costs and Benefits  Outlook for renewables in IEA scenarios  Opportunities for Chile  Principles and examples for effective policies© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Strong Growth in Electricity … Wind Bioenergy Solar PV Hydro other Generation 338 296 31 3503 74 2010 [TWh] CAGR 2005- 26.5% 8.8% 50.8% 3.1% 4.6% 2010 [%]© OECD/IEA 2010
  • …and in Heat and Transport 60 50 • 3% share of road Mtoe 40 transport 30 • Grew at 26% per 20 year in average 10 0 • Growth focused in Brazil, US, EU 2001 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Brazil bioethanol US bioethanol EU-27 biodiesel RoW biofuels 200 Rest of world China • Rapid growth in 150 solar water heating GWth 100 • Focused mainly 50 in China 0© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Costs are Reducing  Growing deployment has led 100 PV Module Price (USD 2010/Wp) < 1976 to cost reductions in key technologies < 1980  Hydro and some 10 geothermal already < 1990 cost-competitive < 2000  New technologies such as wind < 2010 Learning Rate: 19.3% onshore and biomass are 1 competitive in a broader set of 1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 circumstances Cumulative capacity (MW) Data from Breyer and Gerlach, 2010  PV still expensive but 19% cost reduction for each capacity doubling; parity with retail prices in the next five years in countries with high insolation and electricity prices© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Renewable Electricity Generating Costs 400 350 300 250 LCOE ($/MWh) 200 150 100 50 0  Large ranges depending on technology and resource  Competitiveness with new fossil power plants depending on local© OECD/IEA 2010 conditions, but getting competitive in more circumstances
  • Why Renewables? •CO2 savings Climate Protection •Air quality •Using natural resource •Import savings Economic •Green jobs •Impact on rural Development employment •Stimulus for innovation and Energy Access development and Security •Improved diversity •Reduced exposure to volatile world energy prices© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Market Expansion Opportunities New opportunities Leading countries New opportunities© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Policy Trends  Many more countries putting policies in place, particularly outside OECD than in 2005  45 of the 56 focus countries in Deploying Renewables 2011 now have RE Electricity targets, including 20 non-OECD members  53 of the 56 focus countries have electricity support policies in place, compared to 35 in 2005© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Low-carbon power technologies come of age Global installed power generation capacity in the New Policies Scenario 10 000 GW Fossil-fuel additions 8 000 Nuclear additions Renewable additions 6 000 Existing 2010 capacity 4 000 2 000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Renewables account for about half of all the new capacity added worldwide through to 2035© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Growing shares of renewables 50.00% 15000 TWh 45.00% 40.00% 11100 TWh 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 3900 TWh 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2008 2009 CPS scenario 2035 NPS scenario 2035 450 scenario 2035 Electricity Heat Transport All scenarios point out a large growth of renewables© OECD/IEA 2011
  • Continuing Policy Support: Necessary and Justified  Policies need to continue to deliver energy security, environmental and economic benefits  Need for economic incentives  RE technologies not yet generally cost competitive under current pricing mechanisms (e.g. lack of global carbon pricing)  Transitional support needed to stimulate learning and cost reduction and bring a larger portfolio of RET to competitiveness  Address non-economic barriers that hamper deployment  Access to market and administrative hurdles  Access to finance  Infrastructure barriers  Lack of awareness and skilled personnel  Public acceptance and environmental barriers© OECD/IEA 2010  Policies need to have highest impact at lowest costs
  • Many opportunities for Chile A large and well diversified RE potential! Not only the best solar resource in the continent but also: • Hydro • Geothermal • Wind • Biomass • And even Marine energy Source; NREL© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Overarching Best-Practice Policy Principles 1. Predictable RE policy framework, integrated into overall energy strategy 2. Portfolio of incentives based on technology and market maturity 3. Dynamic policy approach based on monitoring of national and global market trends 4. Tackle non-economic barriers 5. Address system integration issues© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Many Good Market Based Policy Examples…  US States – quotas and fiscal incentives  Brazil – tendering scheme  Europe – emerging flexible and market- oriented premium systems •Opportunity to benefit from many years of policy experience and emerging best practice •Policy portfolio needs to be tailored to national priorities and conditions© OECD/IEA 2010
  • Conclusions  RE is an important component of any secure and sustainable energy economy  Renewables are cost competitive in an increasingly wider set of circumstances  Chile has a large and diverse resource base  Policy experience is available to help develop portfolio of policies suited to Chile’s priorities and conditions© OECD/IEA 2010