Global Energy Outlook and the                      implications for Africa                                                ...
The context: fresh challenges   add to already worrying trends    Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy p...
High oil prices put a particular strain onthe Least Developed Countries                              21                   ...
Africa: 15% of the worlds population   consuming around 5% of its energy                  50%                             ...
Natural gas & renewables become   increasingly important                                         World primary energy dema...
Existing and announced policies will   not halt the rise in CO2 emissions                            World energy-related ...
Not all regions are major contributorsto CO2 emissions                                                       2010         ...
Per capita CO2 emissions fail to converge                                12                                9              ...
Energy poverty is widespread         Million people without electricity         Million people without clean cooking facil...
Modern energy brings health benefits                  Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected di...
Investment today is far from enough                             $9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009        ...
Annual investment needed to   address energy poverty                                                    Sub-Saharan Africa...
Implications of modern energy for all                                                          20                         ...
All fuels have a role to play                     Generation mix for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa   ...
Concluding remarks    Development in the “rich” economies came on the back of oil            prices that averaged just $1...
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Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

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Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
International Energy Agency

18th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum
Paris, 25 April 2012

Published in: Technology, Business
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Global Energy Outlook and the Implications for Africa

  1. 1. Global Energy Outlook and the implications for Africa Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency 18th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum Paris, 25 April 2012© OECD/IEA 2012
  2. 2. The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends  Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy & limited the means of intervention  High oil prices – a major risk for the global economy  Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty  CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high  Durban was a step forward, but is yet to make a noticeable impact on investment© OECD/IEA 2011
  3. 3. High oil prices put a particular strain onthe Least Developed Countries 21 18 Oil imports Bill $ billion 15 ODA 12 9 6 3 0 2009 2010 2011 The oil import burden of sub-Saharan Africa countries rose to $18 billion in 2011, swamping their ODA by around 40%; the situation may worsen in 2012 if prices stay at current levels© OECD/IEA 2011
  4. 4. Africa: 15% of the worlds population consuming around 5% of its energy 50% Share of global population 40% Share of global energy demand 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2035 2010 2035 Africa OECD Africa’s share of the global population increases from 15% in 2009 to 20% in 2035, but its share of global energy demand declines fractionally to 5.4%© OECD/IEA 2011
  5. 5. Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important World primary energy demand 5 000 Mtoe Additional to 2035 4 000 2010 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035© OECD/IEA 2011
  6. 6. Existing and announced policies will not halt the rise in CO2 emissions World energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 45 Gt 6⁰ C 40 Current Policies Scenario 3.5⁰ C 35 New Policies Scenario 30 25 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 If governments follow through on their policy commitments, the temperature rise will be 3.5 ⁰C; otherwise we are on an even more dangerous track, for an increase of 6°C or more© OECD/IEA 2011
  7. 7. Not all regions are major contributorsto CO2 emissions 2010 30.4 Gt CO2 Africa Rest of the 3% World China Latin 19% 26% America 4% Japan 4% US Russia 18% 5% EU India + other 12% dev Asia 9% Africa constitutes 15% of the global population, but just 3% of global CO2-emissions© OECD/IEA 2011
  8. 8. Per capita CO2 emissions fail to converge 12 9 2035 Tonnes 2010 6 3 0 OECD China Latin America India Africa Africa’s low per capita emissions (just 10% of the OECD average) reflects its low per capita energy consumption, and heavy reliance on traditional biomass© OECD/IEA 2011
  9. 9. Energy poverty is widespread Million people without electricity Million people without clean cooking facilities Sub-Saharan Africa China 8 423 Rest of Latin America 585 653 developing India Asia 31 85 289 379 836 661 In Sub-Saharan Africa only 30% of the population has access to electricity, in rural areas the share drops to 14%© OECD/IEA 2011
  10. 10. Modern energy brings health benefits Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases 2.5 Million 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Malaria Tuberculosis Smoke from HIV/AIDS biomass Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable to indoor air pollution from burning biomass© OECD/IEA 2011
  11. 11. Investment today is far from enough $9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009 14% 22% Bilateral Official Development Assistance Multilateral organisations Developing country governments 34% Private sector finance 31% To achieve Energy for All, investment needs to grow more than five-times to $48 billion a year – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa© OECD/IEA 2011
  12. 12. Annual investment needed to address energy poverty Sub-Saharan Africa 20 15 10 Electricity Access 5 Isolated off-grid 0 and mini-grid $18.5 billion On-grid Additional investment of $18.5 billion needed yearly up to 2030,© OECD/IEA 2011 to provide electricity to almost 600 million people currently without access
  13. 13. Implications of modern energy for all 20 40 Additional energy demand in the Gigatonnes Billion tonnes of oil equivalent 0.7% 1.1% Energy for All Case 15 30 Additional CO2 emissions in the Energy for All Case 10 20 5 10 0 0 World energy World CO2 demand emissions 2030 2030 Achieving modern energy for all would not have significant negative effects on energy security or climate change© OECD/IEA 2011
  14. 14. All fuels have a role to play Generation mix for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa On-grid Mini-grid & off-grid 226 TWh 278 TWh 9% 38% Fossil fuels Renewables 62% 91% A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required© OECD/IEA 2011
  15. 15. Concluding remarks  Development in the “rich” economies came on the back of oil prices that averaged just $13 per barrel  Efforts to catch-up by the Least Developed Countries are being hamstrung by prices some 10-times higher  Providing modern energy access for all is achievable & would have only a minor impact on global energy demand & emissions  Africa needs investment of $18.5 billion per year to 2030 to bring electricity to the 600 million people that currently lack access  All sources & forms of investment need to grow considerably to meet target  The World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access for a decade & will continue to do so© OECD/IEA 2011
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