Southeast Asia Energy Outlook
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Southeast Asia Energy Outlook

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The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – along with China and India – are shifting the centre of gravity of the global energy system towards Asia. ...

The ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – along with China and India – are shifting the centre of gravity of the global energy system towards Asia.

Energy demand in Southeast Asia has expanded by two-and- a-half times since 1990, its rate of growth among the fastest in the world. Economic and demographic trends point to further growth, lifting the region’s energy use per capita from just half of the global average today. But how will Southeast Asia’s fuel mix evolve? And what will the region’s supply and demand balance mean for oil, gas and coal trade?

The International Energy Agency, in co-operation with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, has studied these issues in consultation with ASEAN member governments and leading commentators, industry representatives and international experts. This special report, in the World Energy Outlook series, presents the findings.

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Southeast Asia Energy Outlook Southeast Asia Energy Outlook Presentation Transcript

  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency 2 October 2013
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Southeast Asia: the energy context  Southeast Asia has emerged as a key player in the global energy system  growing thirst for energy driven by sustained economic & social development  Diverse set of countries with vast differences in patterns of energy use  Many of the individual countries increasingly reliant on energy imports  although region as a whole is rich in energy resources  Fundamentals suggest energy needs will continue to grow  economy to triple by 2035, despite some headwinds at present  population of 600 million to expand by almost one-quarter by 2035  per-capita energy use is still low & 134 million people lack access to electricity
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Southeast Asia Energy Overview
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 2000 2011 2020 2030 2035 Mtoe Other ASEAN Malaysia Philippines Thailand Indonesia Southeast Asia’s energy needs will continue to grow Growth in ASEAN primary energy demand Southeast Asia’s energy demand increases by over four-fifths in the period to 2035, or by more than the current consumption of Japan 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Energy demand per capita as share of OECD (right axis)
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 The power sector is fundamental to the energy outlook of Southeast Asia ASEAN incremental electricity generation by fuel, 2011-2035 Electricity generation increases by more than the current power output of India; coal emerges as the fuel of choice, accounting for 58% of the growth -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Oil Nuclear Gas Renewables Coal TWh
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 100 200 300 400 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 TWh 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Solar PV Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Hydro Share of total generation (right axis) Renewables enter into the mainstream Renewables-based power increases by more than the current total power output of Indonesia & Thailand combined, although barriers to deployment need to be tackled ASEAN electricity generation from renewables
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Net imports Net exports Production: oil in decline & gas struggling to keep up with demand ASEAN oil and gas balances Southeast Asia becomes the world’s fourth-largest oil importer (behind China, India and the EU) & sees a vastly reduced surplus of natural gas for export 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 2000 2010 2020 2035 Millionbarrelsperday Production Demand Oil 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 2000 2010 2020 2035 Billioncubicmetres Gas
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Rising oil & gas imports will have high economic costs Net oil and gas imports as a share of demand The region imports 75% of its oil in 2035, as spending on oil imports triples to $240 billion; net revenues from gas exports fall by more than three-quarters -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Gas Oil 2035 Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines ASEAN 2011Net oil importer, net gas exporter Net oil & gas exporter Net oil & gas importer
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Indonesia: a dominant player in global coal markets Indonesia’s coal production Indonesia accounts for 85% of Southeast Asia’s coal production; it remains the world’s top exporter of steam coal – by a very large margin – through to 2035 100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 2000 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 Milliontonnesofcoalequuivalent 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 90% Net exports Demand Steam coal exports as share of world steam coal trade (right axis)
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Fossil-fuel subsidies continue to distort energy markets Value of fossil-fuel subsidies in Southeast Asia, 2007-2012 Fossil-fuel subsidies amounted to $51 billion in 2012; despite recent reforms – notably in Indonesia & Malaysia – they continue to distort energy markets 10 20 30 40 50 60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Billiondollars(2012) 20 40 60 80 100 120 Dollarsperbarrel(2012) Coal Natural gas Electricity Oil IEA crude oil import price (right axis)
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised Economically viable efficiency measures can cut the region’s energy use in 2035 by almost 15%, or more than the current energy use of Thailand ASEAN primary energy demand in the Efficient ASEAN Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Savings in 2035 Coal 100 Mtce Oil 0.7 mb/d Gas 28 bcm 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 1 100 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mtoe New Policies Scenario Efficient ASEAN Scenario
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Improved energy efficiency brings economic gains In 2035, spending on oil imports is cut by $30 billion, while revenues from exports of natural gas & coal are increased by $30 billion; regional GDP is boosted by about 2% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Coal Gas Oil Billiondollars(2012) Import cost savings Additional exportrevenue Gains in fossil-fuel trade balances 40 80 120 160 200 2020 2025 2030 2035 Billiondollars(2012) 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Change in GDP Percentage change in GDP (right axis) Increase in GDP
  • © OECD/IEA 2013 Southeast Asia: an emerging giant of the global energy market  Southeast Asia – along with China & India – is shifting the centre of gravity of the global energy system to Asia  Its outlook for energy production & demand has implications that will be felt well beyond the region  Developing policies to improve efficiency & attract investment will be vital for enhancing energy security, affordability & sustainability  The region faces global challenges, underscoring the need to enhance cooperation intra-regionally & with international partners