1. A bright future for renewables?
Charting a path to energy sustainability
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven
Executive Director
International Energy Agency
Ireland, 11 July 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS 4DS 6DS
a vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is now
energy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentially
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating results
and CO2 emissions energy efficiency
The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

3. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Progress is too slow in
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
to get back on track
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

4. Renewables provide good news
Renewable power generation
42% 75% 27%
Average annual Cost reductions in Average annual
growth in Solar PV Solar PV in just growth in wind
three years in
some countries © OECD/IEA 2012

5. Renewable power forecast to accelerate
TWh
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV
Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean
Hydropower remains the main renewable power source
Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates
© OECD/IEA 2012

6. Non-hydro sources spread out widely
80
Number of countries (>100MW)
60
40
20
0
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
2005
2011
2017
Onshore Offshore Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean
wind wind
Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions
Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly
© OECD/IEA 2012

7. Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
5 000
Other renewables
Other renewables
4 500
4 000 Wind
Wind
3 500
Solar
Solar
3 000
Hydro
Hydro
TWh
2 500
2 000
Nuclear
Nuclear
1 500
Fossil w CCS CCS
Fossil w
1 000
500 Fossil w/ow/o CCS
Fossil CCS
0
4DS 2DS
2009
2009 2050
2050
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with
wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
© OECD/IEA 2012

8. Key measures to maintain momentum….
Maintain Supportive Redesign and adapt
Policies Whilst markets
Managing Policy e.g. subsidy removal,
Costs carbon pricing
Leaders in OECD and BRICS
Continue R,D & D for Enable Integration
Key Technologies e.g. power system
e.g. Offshore Wind, flexibility for integration of
Enhanced Geothermal , variable RE;
Ocean Energy
Expand RE Market to
More Countries
e.g. many countries New Markets
enacted policies but
deployment yet to occur
© OECD/IEA 2012

9. A smart, sustainable energy system
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

10. Decarbonising electricity generation in Ireland
 Renewables policy emphasis
 Favourable REFITs extended
Renewables target: 40% generation
 Wind =10%; 30% 2020 target
by 2020
 New REFITs for 2nd gen. biomass
35 TWh
 Gas is the dominant fuel 30
 Now accounts for 62% of power 25
 Will grow in tandem with 20
growth in variable renewables 15
10
 Coal and peat are declining 5
 Carbon tax disincentive 0
 Peat subsidies phased out
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Oil Natural gas Peat Coal Hydro Biofuels and waste Wind
© OECD/IEA 2012

11. Ireland has some good systems thinking in progress…
 Electricity Map of gas pipelines
 East-West interconnector to GB
 Grid25 for wind integration
 Extra North-South line needed
 Gas
 Possible Shannon LNG project
 Corrib field still not producing
 Gas storage is needed
 NIMBY problems
 Local community concerns
 Consenting process important
© OECD/IEA 2012

12. Electric vehicles need to come of age
200 FCEV Electric Vehicles
Fuel Cell
Electricity
Passenger LDV sales (million)
150 Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
100 Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
50 CNG/LPG
Diesel
0 Gasoline
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

13. Clean energy investment pays off
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

14. Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

15. For much more, please visit
www.iea.org/etp
© OECD/IEA 2012