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A bright future for renewables? Charting a path to energy sustainability - IEA Ed

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  • 1. A bright future for renewables?Charting a path to energy sustainabilityMs. Maria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyIreland, 11 July 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures 2DS 4DS 6DSa vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is nowenergy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentiallyGreenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating resultsand CO2 emissions energy efficiency The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 3. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 4. Renewables provide good news Renewable power generation 42% 75% 27% Average annual Cost reductions in Average annual growth in Solar PV Solar PV in just growth in wind three years in some countries © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 5. Renewable power forecast to accelerate TWh 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean Hydropower remains the main renewable power source Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 6. Non-hydro sources spread out widely 80 Number of countries (>100MW) 60 40 20 0 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 2005 2011 2017 Onshore Offshore Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean wind wind Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 7. Renewables need to dominate EU electricity 5 000 Other renewables Other renewables 4 500 4 000 Wind Wind 3 500 Solar Solar 3 000 Hydro Hydro TWh 2 500 2 000 Nuclear Nuclear 1 500 Fossil w CCS CCS Fossil w 1 000 500 Fossil w/ow/o CCS Fossil CCS 0 4DS 2DS 2009 2009 2050 2050 Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix. © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 8. Key measures to maintain momentum…. Maintain Supportive Redesign and adapt Policies Whilst markets Managing Policy e.g. subsidy removal, Costs carbon pricing Leaders in OECD and BRICS Continue R,D & D for Enable Integration Key Technologies e.g. power system e.g. Offshore Wind, flexibility for integration of Enhanced Geothermal , variable RE; Ocean Energy Expand RE Market to More Countries e.g. many countries New Markets enacted policies but deployment yet to occur © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 9. A smart, sustainable energy system A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 10. Decarbonising electricity generation in Ireland Renewables policy emphasis  Favourable REFITs extended Renewables target: 40% generation  Wind =10%; 30% 2020 target by 2020  New REFITs for 2nd gen. biomass 35 TWh Gas is the dominant fuel 30  Now accounts for 62% of power 25  Will grow in tandem with 20 growth in variable renewables 15 10 Coal and peat are declining 5  Carbon tax disincentive 0  Peat subsidies phased out 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Oil Natural gas Peat Coal Hydro Biofuels and waste Wind © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 11. Ireland has some good systems thinking in progress… Electricity Map of gas pipelines  East-West interconnector to GB  Grid25 for wind integration  Extra North-South line needed Gas  Possible Shannon LNG project  Corrib field still not producing  Gas storage is needed NIMBY problems  Local community concerns  Consenting process important © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 12. Electric vehicles need to come of age 200 FCEV Electric Vehicles Fuel Cell ElectricityPassenger LDV sales (million) 150 Plug-in hybrid diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 100 Diesel hybrid Gasoline hybrid 50 CNG/LPG Diesel 0 Gasoline 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 13. Clean energy investment pays off USD trillion Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 14. Recommendations to Governments 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) © OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012
  • 15. For much more, please visitwww.iea.org/etp © OECD/IEA 2012