IEA-Energy Technology Model

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IEA-Energy Technology Model …

IEA-Energy Technology Model
Nathalie TRUDEAU, International Energy Agency, IEA

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  • 1. IEA Energy Technology Model Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 2. Energy Technology Perspectives project ENERGY  IEA flagship project on energyTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES technology, complementing the 2010 Scenarios & WEO  Provides impartial advice to Strategies to 2050 decision makers on energy technology policy  Main output is Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) publication – released every two years  Input to high-level inter- governmental discussions © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 3. ETP Scenarios  Baseline scenario: ENERGYTECHNOLOGY  Following the World Energy Outlook 2009PERSPECTIVES Reference Scenario 2010  World GDP grows by factor 2.75 between Scenarios & Strategies 2007 and 2050 to 2050  Energy prices: Oil USD 120/bbl in 2050, Coal USD 115/tonne  BLUE scenario:  50% reduction of energy related CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005  Options with marginal reductions of up to USD 175/t CO2 are needed  Due to uncertainties number of variants being considered © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 4. Key messages from scenarios  The Baseline scenario is unsustainable ENERGYTECHNOLOGY – environmentally, economically,PERSPECTIVES socially 2010  Widespread deployment of low carbon Scenarios & Strategies technologies (costs < USD 175/tCO2) to 2050 needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050  Improved energy efficiency and decarbonising electricity are key  New technologies needed after 2030  Shares of biomass and electricity increase  Urgent action required – emissions must peak by around 2020  Non-OECD countries also need to cut emissions below current levels © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 5. World: CO2 emissions 60 ENERGY Gt CO2TECHNOLOGY 50PERSPECTIVES Other 2010 40 Buildings Scenarios & Transport Strategies 30 to 2050 Industry 20 Other transformation Power generation 10 0 2007 2030 2050 2030 2050 Baseline BLUE Map • Global emissions double by 2050 in Baseline • 50% reduction in 2050 on 2005 levels in BLUE, equivalent to 75% reduction from 2050 Baseline © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 6. Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions under the BLUE Map scenario ENERGY 60TECHNOLOGY Gt CO2 Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19%PERSPECTIVES 55 2010 50 Renewables 17% 45 Scenarios & Nuclear 6% Strategies 40 to 2050 35 Power generation efficiency and 30 fuel switching 5% 25 End-use fuel switching 15% 20 End-use fuel and electricity 15 efficiency 38% BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt 10 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 7. Modelling the Buildings Sector ENERGY  Model for buildings sectorTECHNOLOGY developed for ETP 2006PERSPECTIVES 2010  Regional model, but model Scenarios & Strategies large countries separately to 2050  Bottom-up approach, focusing on end-uses, includes stock models  Very data intensive  Continuously working to improve understanding of global building stock and energy consumption by end- use © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 8. Energy consumption by fuel and by scenario ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy consumption in the building sector is 5% higher in 2050 than in 2007 in the BLUE Map Scenario. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 9. Energy consumption by fuel, by scenario and region ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 OECD regions reduce energy consumption below 2007 levels in the BLUE Map scenario by 2050. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 10. Energy savings by sector and by end use, 2050 ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Two-thirds of the energy savings in the BLUE map scenario come from the residential sector. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 11. BLUE Map results for Buildings: CO2 emissions ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario, buildings sector CO2 emissions in 2050 are 83% lower than in the © OECD/IEA - 2011 Baseline scenario.
  • 12. BLUE Map results for Buildings: CO2 emissions ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Improvements in the building shell and energy savings in electrical end-uses dominate total CO2 © OECD/IEA - 2011 reductions in the BLUE Map scenario.
  • 13. Key Technologies for the Buildings Sector in BLUE Map  Tighter building standards and codes ENERGYTECHNOLOGY for new residential and commercialPERSPECTIVES buildings 2010  Large-scale refurbishment of residential Scenarios & Strategies buildings in the OECD to 2050  Highly efficient heating, cooling and ventilation systems  Improved lighting efficiency  Improved appliance efficiency  The widespread deployment of CO2-free technologies. Including the widespread deployment of solar thermal, bioenergy, heat pumps, and fuel cell CHP.  Cross-cutting technologies: thermal energy storage and importance of future proofing for smart grid © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 14. Key Messages  Baseline scenario: CO2 emissions grow from ENERGY 8.1 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 to 15.2 Gt CO2 inTECHNOLOGY 2050PERSPECTIVES 2010  BLUE Map scenario reduces this by 83% in 2050  Decarbonisation of electricity reduces emissions by Scenarios & Strategies 6.8 Gt CO2) to 2050  Buildings are the key to low-cost CO2 abatement scenarios  Energy efficiency and switch to low- and zero-carbon technologies reduces emissions by 5.8 Gt CO2  Very different challenges in OECD and non- OECD  Most of the technology solutions are available today and are generally mature, but more R&D needed  However, uptake is far from optimal from an economic or environmental perspective  Strong policy action is required © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 15. Next steps ENERGY  Model update – ETP 2012TECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES  Expand regional coverage of the 2010 buildings sector Scenarios & Strategies to 2050  Expand the time horizon to 2075  Increase technological specificities  E.g. include hydrogen fuel-cell; solar space cooling; etc.  Refine stock accounting models  Better tracking of appliance stock  Update data with most up-to-date information  Including the newly released World Energy Outlook © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 16. ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Thank you © OECD/IEA - 2011