Res-IRF, modeling the savings potential    in the French residential sector            Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet,     Céline G...
OutlineRes-IRF: Residential module of Imaclim-R France1. Model description2. Dynamics in the reference scenario3. Policy s...
Model description
Res-IRF: technological features• Energy consumption covered   – Space heating (2/3 of French household demand)   – Electri...
Res-IRF: microeconomic features                          LCCi , f        PRi , f                      LCCi ,h       ...
Efficiency, ‘Sufficiency’ and the             rebound effectUnrestrictive behavior                                        ...
Dynamics in thereference scenario
Endogenous retrofitting dynamicsAdoption spillovers prevail (self-reinforcing)   ‘Natural’ exhaustion prevails            ...
Potential for energy conservation in             existing dwellings                                                       ...
Policy simulations
Policy simulationIncome tax credits 2009-2020•   Subsidy of 30% of investment cost•   Capped at €8,000 per dwellingZero ra...
Ineffectiveness of the policy packages assessed                                             €200/tCO2                     ...
Policy impacts on existing dwellings in                2050                                          13
Why in the end, tax outperforms                             Rebound                             Sufficiency               ...
Conclusions• Policy ranking   – Subsidies & regulations increase efficiency, thus adoption     externalities (pro) and the...
Thanks for your attention                contact: quirion@centre-cired.frGiraudet, L.-G., C. Guivarch, P. Quirion, 2011:• ...
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Res-IRF, modeling the savings potential in the French residential sector

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France, RES-IRF Modeling the savings potential in the residential sector
Philippe QUIRION, CIRED

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Res-IRF, modeling the savings potential in the French residential sector

  1. 1. Res-IRF, modeling the savings potential in the French residential sector Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet, Céline Guivarch and Philippe Quirion CIRED (www.centre-cired.fr)
  2. 2. OutlineRes-IRF: Residential module of Imaclim-R France1. Model description2. Dynamics in the reference scenario3. Policy simulations 2
  3. 3. Model description
  4. 4. Res-IRF: technological features• Energy consumption covered – Space heating (2/3 of French household demand) – Electricity, natural gas & fuel oil (+ wood in new version)• Energy efficiency improvements (including fuel switch) – New constructions (standard/low energy/passive) – Retrofitting of existing dwellings G F E D C B A G F E D C B A 4
  5. 5. Res-IRF: microeconomic features LCCi , f  PRi , f   LCCi ,h  h i LCCi , f  CINVi , f  CENER f  ICi , fBarriers to energy efficiency Tentative representation in Res-IRF(non-exhaustive list) (parameterized according to expert elicitation)Market Uncertainty Myopic expectation CENERbarriers Hidden costs Fixed intangible costs a . IC Heterogeneity Heterogeneity parameter νMarket Split incentives Heterogeneous discount rates (7%...50%) CENERfailures Information externalities Decreasing intangible costs (1-a) IC Innovation externalities Learning-by-doing functions CINV 5
  6. 6. Efficiency, ‘Sufficiency’ and the rebound effectUnrestrictive behavior Data: EDF R&D (see Cayre et al., 2011, ECEEE Proceedings) LE/A B C Sufficiency D Restrictive behavior E F G Energy efficiency Energy price 6
  7. 7. Dynamics in thereference scenario
  8. 8. Endogenous retrofitting dynamicsAdoption spillovers prevail (self-reinforcing) ‘Natural’ exhaustion prevails 65% 90% 8
  9. 9. Potential for energy conservation in existing dwellings Reference savings: -37% « Sufficiency » gap: -10% « Private efficiency » gap: -4% « Social efficiency » gap: -8%NB: subject to slightly increasing energy price (~0.5% p.a.) 9
  10. 10. Policy simulations
  11. 11. Policy simulationIncome tax credits 2009-2020• Subsidy of 30% of investment cost• Capped at €8,000 per dwellingZero rate loans 2009-2020• Subsidy equal to the interests of a 10-year loan at 4%• Base capped at €30,000 per dwelling2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Carbon tax • €32/tCO2 in 2010 • Increasing by 5.8% pa until 2030, 4% afterwards Retrofitting obligation for each occupancy change • Dwellings rated below class C must upgrade to minimum class C • Incremental implementation, from class G in 2016…to class D in 2028 11
  12. 12. Ineffectiveness of the policy packages assessed €200/tCO2 in 2010National Target -38% 12
  13. 13. Policy impacts on existing dwellings in 2050 13
  14. 14. Why in the end, tax outperforms Rebound Sufficiency 14
  15. 15. Conclusions• Policy ranking – Subsidies & regulations increase efficiency, thus adoption externalities (pro) and the rebound effect (con) – Tax: low impact on efficiency, but encourages sufficiency –  both necessary – Despite unrepresented measures (information policies) and technologies (fuel-wood, district heating), French targets hard to meet• New developments and perspectives – Fuel-wood – Uncertainty analysis – Econometric estimation 15
  16. 16. Thanks for your attention contact: quirion@centre-cired.frGiraudet, L.-G., C. Guivarch, P. Quirion, 2011:• Comparing and combining energy saving policies. Will proposed residential sector policies meet French official targets? Energy Journal, 32(SI1): 213-242• Exploring the potential for energy conservation in French households through hybrid modelling, Energy Economics, doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.010 16

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