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Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
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Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)

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Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²) …

Built Environment Analysis Model² (BEAM²)
Kjell Bettgenhäuser, Ecofys

Published in: Technology, Business
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  • 1. The Built EnvironmentAnalysis Model²IEA Building Envelope Technologies and Policies WorkshopParis, November 17th 2011Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 2. AgendaBEAM² MethodologyReference Scenario for GermanyImpact Assessment Scenarios for the EU27Discussion© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 3. MethodologyKey research questions What energy and CO2-emission reduction potentials in buildings?  in which timeline  to what costs Bottom-up model based on sound physical,  with what limitations technical & economic Which role play assessments  Financial incentives using the EN ISO 13790 standard and others  Normative restrictions What is the building sector contribution to climate regimes? © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 4. Methodology Building-Stock Analysis of Cities, Regions and Countries Overview on  Energy Demand (Space Heating & Cooling, Hot Water, Electricity)  Primary Energy (incl. Fuel Mix)  CO2-and GHG-Emissions  Investments (Insulation, Heating- and Ventilation Systems)  Running Costs (Energy- and Maintenance Costs)  Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Measures Performance based assessment of current building stock and calculation of various scenarios for the future© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 5. MethodologyInput for  Current building stock  Reference buildings (geometries)  Thermal standards in stock (building shell)  Technology (HVAC equipment)  m² of all combinations in stock  Scenario calculation  Retrofit, new building and demolition programs  Definition of systems and efficiency standards  Climate data (HDD resp. temperature & irradiation)  Energy prices and investment costs for measures © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 6. MethodologyDifferences to other models in the built environment: (i.e. Invert, Ikarus, HEAT) • Approach (top down vs. bottom-up) • Calculation (Performance based vs. component based) • Type of calculation (endogenous optimizations* vs. exogenous calculations) • Sectors covered (residential only vs. all conditioned buildings) • Type of energy consumption (space heating**, hot water, cooling**, auxiliary energy, electrical appliances) • Arithmetics (accounting models vs. calibrated models) • Flexibility (static defined models vs. flexible models) * IEA Energy Technology Model; ** GEA Buildings Model © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 7. Methodology© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 8. Methodology© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 9. Methodology Implementation in a professional Oracle® database environment © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 10. Methodology© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 11. Reference Scenario Germany 300.000 250.000 200.000 kt/a 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Direct and indirekt CO2-emissions [based on BMWi Energiedaten] Direct CO2-emissions only [based on BMWi Energiedaten] [Kleemann,Hansen, 2005] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating + Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2008] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2-eq, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot Water [Matthes, Gores et al., 2009] CO2, Direct Emissions, Heating and Hot WaterHistoric development of CO2-/ CO2eq-emissions in underlying studies between 1990 and 2010. Not climate corrected. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 12. Reference Scenario Germany 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Energy advise for private consumers Environmental Label "Blue Angel" (Umweltzeichen "Blauer Engel") Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1978/82 BMU Programme for the Financing of Demonstration Projects Ordinance on Heat Consumption Metering (Heizkostenverordnung) Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1982 DtA Environmental Finance Programme (DtA-Umweltprogramm) KfW Environmental Protection Programme (KfW-Umweltprogramm) Environmental Debt Guarantee Programme (Umweltschutzbürgschaftsprogramm) Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung) Housing modernisation programme for the new Federal states (Wohnraum-Modernisierungsprogramm neue Bundesländer) On-site energy advice (Vor-Ort-Beratung) Small-Scale Combustion Plant Ordinance (Kleinfeuerungsanlagenverordnung) “100-million-DM programme” for renewables Heating Installations Ordinance (Heizungsanlagenverordnung) of 1994 Thermal Insulation Ordinance (Wärmeschutzverordnung) of 1994 Voluntary agreement with German industry I (Erklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft zur Klimavorsorge I) ERP Environmental Protection and Energy Saving Programme (ERP-Umwelt- und Energiesparprogramm) Ecological Bonus Programme for owner-occupied homes KfW CO2 Reduction Programme (KfW-Programm zur CO2-Minderung) ECO Managment and Audit Scheme (EMAS) Energy Consumption Labelling Ordinance (Energieverbrauchskennzeichnungsverordnung) 100 000 Roofs Solar Power Programme (100 000-Dächer-Solarstrom-Programm) Ordinance on Maximum Energy Consumption (Energieverbrauchshöchstwerteverordnung) Ecological Tax Reform (Ökologische Steuerreform) Market Incentive Programme for Renewable Energies (Marktanreizprogramm für erneuerbare Energien) Voluntary agreement with German industry II German Energy Agency (Deutsche Energie-Agentur – dena) KfW CO2 Building Rehabilitation Programme (KfW-CO2-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm) Voluntary Agreement on CHP (Selbstverpflichtung der Wirtschaft zur Förderung der KWK) Energy Savings Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung - EnEV) Energy Efficiency Campaign (Initiative EnergieEffizienz) Heat Power Cogeneration Act (Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsgesetz) KfW Housing Modernisation Programme 2003 Legend Act on the Further Development of the Ecological Tax Reform KfW Programme Ecological Construction Measure-effects in underlying studies quantified KfW Programme Housing Modernisation Measure-effects in underlying studies not quantified Energy certificates for buildings Special fund for energy efficiency in SMEs Measure in force Eco-Design of Energy-using Products Smart metering CO2-mitigating measures in the German building sector between 1990 and 2010 in chronological order. Source: Mure II database© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 13. Reference Scenario GermanyQuantification of CO2-emission reductions in 2010 [Mt CO2/a].Future retrofit- and new-building rates. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 14. Reference Scenario Germany 300.000 250.000 200.000 kt/a 150.000 -40% Emission Saving Target 100.000 50.000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct and indirect emissions Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) [BMWi] direct emissions only "-40% in 2020" target Heating + Hot Water (all buildings) Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.8% Sensitivity retrofit rate 1.0%CO2-mitigating potential for heating and hot water in residential and non-residential buildings up to 2010from study evaluation and forecast until 2020. For 2010-2020, three scenarios with different retrofit-rates(1.0%, 1.4% and 1.8%) are calculated, resulting in different emission paths. Not climate corrected. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 15. Impact Assessment EU27 Useful floor area in 2005 in mio m² 12.000 CO2 Emissions from space heating in 2005 in Mt/a 10.000 500 450 8.000 400 mio m² 350 6.000 300 Mt/a 250 4.000 200 150 2.000 100 50 0 Non-res Non-res Non-res MFH small 0 (200- MFH medium MFH large RH (50-200 m²) building (200- building (500- building (>1000 Non-res Non-res Non-res 500 m²) RH (50-200m²) MFH small (500-1000 (>1000 m²) MFH medium MFH large 500m²) 1000m²) buildingm²) (200- building (500- building m²) (200-500 m²) (500-1000 m²) (>1000 m²) 500m²) 1000m²) (>1000 m²) Floor area 10.721 2.061 1.730 2.373 1.244 1.091 4.353 CO2-emissions 467 47 38 61 49 41 170 Areas residential CO2non-residential buildings in the EU27 in 2005 non-residential buildings in the EU27 in and -emissions from space heating, residential and 2005 Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 16. Impact Assessment EU27 EU15 Eastern EU New building rate 1% 1% Demolition rate 0,5% 0,5% Retrofit rate of buildings not affected by the current EPBD 0,7% 0,4% Retrofit rate of buildings affected by the current EPBD 1,8% 1,0% Development rates of the EU27 building stock & Scenario Description Original EPBD >1000 m² Original EPBD as from 2006 with 1.000 m² threshold EPBD >500 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 500 m² as from 2009 Scenario Description EPBD >200 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 200 m² as from 2009 EPBD >500 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate EPBD >50 m² Original EPBD in 2006, threshold of 50 m² as from 2009 EPBD >200 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate Scenarios threshold options Scenario Description EPBD >50 m², high retrofit As according scenario above, with improved retrofit rate EPBD >500 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards Scenarios high retrofit rate energy EPBD >200 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards energy EPBD >50 m², high retrofit, low As according scenario above with improved thermal standards energy Scenarios improved thermal standards Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008.© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 17. Impact Assessment EU27 Endenergy EU-27 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500TWh/a 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 year EU27-EPBD (>1000) EU27-EPBD(>500) EU27-EPBD(>200) EU27-EPBD (>50) EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit EU27-EPBD (>50), high retrofit, improved thermal standards Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 18. Impact Assessment EU27 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a threshold already partially abolished threshold already partially abolished 900 200 800 180 700 160 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a 140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a 600 threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit 120threshold already partially abolished, high retrofitTWh/ a 500 Mt/ a 100 400 900 200 80 300 800 180 60 200 160 700 40 Endenergy savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in TWh/a 140 CO2 savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Mt/a 100 600 20 threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved threshold already partially abolished, high retrofit, improved 120TWh/ a 0 0 Mt/ a 500 2010 thermal standards 2020 2030 2010 thermal standards2020 2030 100 400 EPBD >500 m² 3 33 37 EPBD >500 m² 80 1 8 9 900 EPBD >200 m² 6 63 66 200 EPBD >200 m² 1 14 15 300 60 EPBD >50 m² 23 230 246 EPBD >50 180 m² 5 51 55 200800 40 160 100700 20 140 0 0600 120 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 Mt/ a EPBD >500 m² 3 25 27TWh/ a 500 EPBD >500 m² 13 104 115 100 EPBD >200 m² 20 156 168 EPBD >200 m² 5 36 39 80 EPBD >50 m²400 56 475 498 EPBD >50 m² 13 108 112 60 300 40 200 20 100 0 2010 2020 2030 0 EPBD >500 m² 5 35 46 2010 2020 2030 EPBD >200 m² 7 50 63 EPBD >500 m² 22 148 194 EPBD >50 m² 17 139 171 EPBD >200 m² 30 211 270 EPBD >50 m² 73 612 759 Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 19. Impact Assessment EU27 Additional annual capital costs compared to EPBD (>1.000) Total annual profit compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a in Billion €/a threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal thermal standards standards Annual energy cost savings compared to EPBD (>1.000) in Billion €/a 50 60 threshold partially abolished, high retrofit, improved thermal standards 45 50 40 120 35 100 40 30Billion €/ a Billion €/ a 80 25 30 Billion €/ a 20 60 20 15 40 10 10 20 5 0 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 20102030 2020 2030 EPBD >500 m² 1 6 EPBD >500 m² 2 11 16 EPBD >500 m² 1 24 10 13 EPBD >200 m² 1 9 EPBD >200 m² 3 16 23 EPBD >200 m² 2 34 14 19 EPBD >50 m² 3 24 EPBD >50 m² 7 41 EPBD >50 m² 66 4 94 43 53 Source: Impact assessment for the revised EPBD, Report for the EC, Ecofys 2008. © ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 20. Successfully applied for…© ECOFYS | 17/11/2011 | Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  • 21. Kjell BettgenhäuserEcofys GermanyE: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.comT: +49 221 270 70-157

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