Seeing education through the prism of international comparisons: New skills for a global innovation society

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by Andreas Schleicher

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  • 1. 1 1 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the Seeing education through the prism of international comparisons New skills for a global innovation society Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Asia-Pacific Leaders Forum on Secondary Education New Delhi, 24-26 March 2008 Andreas Schleicher Head, Indicators and Analysis Division OECD Directorate for Education
  • 2. 2 2 prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the This afternoon 1. A world of change  How the global talent pool has changed 2. Where we are – and where we can be  Where secondary schooling stands in terms of quantity, quality and equity in education Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008  What the best performing systems show can be achieved 3. How we can get there  Some policy levers that emerge from international comparisons .
  • 3. 3 3 prism of international comparisons New skills for a global innovation society Ì The personal computer enabled millions of Seeing education through the individuals to become authors of their own content in digital form Ì The spread of the Internet and the emergence of the World Wide Web enabled more people than ever to be connected and to share their knowledge Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Ì The emergence of flat“ (Thomas Friedman) „The world is software standards means that people are able to seamlessly work together and upload and globalise content
  • 4. 4 4 School completion A world of change in the global skill supply prism of international comparisons Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications Seeing education through the in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years % 1 1 3 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 2 1 7 1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 2004 3. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
  • 5. 5 5 prism of international comparisons Growth in university-level qualifications Approximated by the percentage of persons with ISCED 5A/6 qualification born in the age groups shown below (2005) Seeing education through the % 4 1 1 1 4 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 2 7 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 4 1. Year of reference 2004. 2. Year of reference 2003.
  • 6. 6 6 College-level graduation rates Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the % Decline of the relative 1 position of the US from 5 1995 to 2005 2 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008
  • 7. 7 7 Rising female participation in university education explains much of this expansion prism of international comparisons Gender difference in university attainment in percentage points Seeing education through the Gender difference in percentage points Men have higher attainment Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Women have higher attainment A8.3
  • 8. 8 8 The effects of the higher education expansion: A high calibre workforce or the overqualified prism of international comparisons crowding out the lesser qualified? Seeing education through the “Middle secondary unemployment rate as a ratio of upper secondary unemployment rate Lower group” Ì Rising tertiary-degrees have not ledgroup” The eight countries “Bottom to an with modest The nine countries with no or very “inflation” of the increases in labour-market value of in tertiary modest increases education (0.1% on average) qualifications. tertiary education (2.4% on average)  In all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40% Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008  Growing benefits in many of the countries with the steepest attainment growth . “Top group” The nine countries that expanded tertiary education fastest in the 1990s (5.9% on average)
  • 9. 9 9 New skills for a global innovation society Higher skills or lower pay prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 The world is flat (Thomas Friedman)
  • 10. 10 10 Moving targets Future supply of baseline qualifications prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 2003 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 6,000,000 2010 2015 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 China EU India US
  • 11. Future supply of high school graduates 11 11prism of international comparisons 14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 2003 6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 2010 4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 2015 Seeing education through the 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 0 China EU India US Future supply of college graduates 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 3,000,000 2003 2,500,000 2010 2,000,000 1,500,000 2015 1,000,000 500,000 0 China EU India US
  • 12. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the 24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 12 12 The world is flat (Thomas Friedman) New skills for a global innovation society
  • 13. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the 24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 13 13 Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution (Levy and Murnane) How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
  • 14. 14 14prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the New skills for a global innovation society What regulates production ? Agriculture Laws of nature, seasonal variation Industry Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Capital, labour, mechanisation, “taylorisation” Service Articulation of demand Knowledge Complex logistics
  • 15. 15 15prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the New skills for a global innovation society What are ideals for outputs ? Agriculture Durability Industry Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Large volume, uniformity, low costs Service Functionality, customised Knowledge Flexible production, embedded services
  • 16. 16 16prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the New skills for a global innovation society Who are the progressive producers ? Agriculture Family-based farms and co-operatives Industry Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Stock co-operation, single mover, hierarchical Service Public sector, networks Knowledge Alliances and collaboration, “co-petition”
  • 17. 17 17prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the New skills for a global innovation society What are the key drivers of growth ? Agriculture Mechanisation, use of fertilizers, new crops Industry Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Capital, labour, mechanisation, “taylorisation” Service Deprivatisation of family functions Knowledge Access to knowledge, innovation systems
  • 18. 18 18prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the New skills for a global innovation society What are key occupational profiles ? Agriculture Subservient and useful subjects Industry Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Fixed professional identity defined in the national context Service Motivated and self-reliant citizens Knowledge Risk-taking entrepreneurs, converging and continuously emerging, reshaped tied to globalising contexts and technological advance
  • 19. 19 19 New skills for a global innovation society prism of international comparisons The great collaborators and orchestrators Seeing education through the Ì  The more complex the globalised world becomes, the more individuals and companies need various forms of co-ordination and management Ì The great synthesisers Conventionally, our approach to problems was Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008  breaking them down into manageable bits and pieces, today we create value by synthesising disparate bits together Ì The great explainers  The more content we can search and access, the more important the filters and explainers become
  • 20. 20 20 New skills for a global innovation society prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the Ì The great versatilists  Specialists generally have deep skills and narrow scope, giving them expertise that is recognised by peers but not valued outside their domain  Generalists have broad scope but shallow skills  Versatilists apply depth of skill to a progressively widening scope of situations and experiences, gaining new competencies, Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 building relationships, and assuming new roles.  They are capable not only of constantly adapting but also of constantly learning and growing Ì The great personalisers  A revival of interpersonal skills, skills that have atrhophied to some degree because of the industrial age and the Internet Ì The great localisers
  • 21. 21 21prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the Schooling in the industrial age: Educating for discipline Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 The challenges today: Motivated and self-reliant citizens Risk-taking entrepreneurs, converging and continuously emerging professions tied to globalising contexts and technological advance
  • 22. 22 PISA 22prism of international comparisons OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment Seeing education through the looking back at what students were expected to have learned …or… looking ahead to how well they can Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 extrapolate from what they have learned and apply their knowledge and skills in novel settings. For PISA, the OECD countries chose the latter.
  • 23. 23 23 PISA OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment prism of international comparisons The real world The mathematical world Seeing education through the Making the problem amenable to mathematical treatment A model of reality A mathematical Understanding, model structuring and simplifying the Using relevant situation mathematical A real situation Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 tools to solve the problem Validating the results Real results Mathematical results Interpreting the mathematical results
  • 24. 24 24prism of international comparisons PISA OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment Seeing education through the Ì The latest PISA assessment emphasizes science competencies, defined in terms of an individual’s:  Scientific knowledge and use of that knowledge to… … identify scientific issues, … explain scientific phenomena, and … draw evidence-based conclusions about science-related issues Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008  Understanding of the characteristic features of science as a form of human knowledge and enquiry  Awareness of how science and technology shape our material, intellectual and cultural environments  Willingness to engage with science-related issues Ì A large proportion of complex open-ended tasks .
  • 25. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the 24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 25 25 81% Coverage of world economy 77% 87% 86% 85% 83% PISA countries in 2001 1998 2009 2006 2003 2000
  • 26. High science performance 26 565 Finland 26 Average performance of 15-year-olds in prism of international comparisons 545 science – extrapolate and apply Seeing education through the Hong Kong-China Chinese Taipei Canada Estonia Japan New Zealand Australia 525 Netherlands Liechtenstein Korea Slovenia United Kingdom Germany Czech Republic Switzerland Macao-China Austria Ireland Belgium 505 Hungary Sweden Poland France Denmark Iceland Croatia Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 United States Latvia Slovak Republic, Spain, Lithuania Norway 485 Luxembourg Russian Federation Portugal Italy Greece 465 Israel 445 16 … 18 countries perform below this line 6 Low science performance
  • 27. High science performance 27 565 Finland 27 Average performance High average performance Highof 15-year-olds in average performance prism of international comparisons Large socio-economic disparities 545 science – extrapolate High social equity and apply Seeing education through the Hong Kong-China Chinese Taipei Canada Estonia Japan New Zealand Australia 525 Netherlands Liechtenstein Korea Slovenia United Kingdom Germany Czech Republic Switzerland Macao-China Austria Ireland Belgium Strong socio- 505 Hungary Socially equitable economic impact on Sweden distribution of learning Poland student performance France Denmark opportunities Iceland Croatia Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 United States Latvia Slovak Republic, Spain, Lithuania Norway 485 Luxembourg Russian Federation Portugal Italy Greece 465 Low average performance Israel Low average performance Large socio-economic disparities 445 High social equity 16 6 Low science performance
  • 28. High science performance 28 28 560 Finland Durchschnittliche High average performance High average performance Schülerleistungen im prism of international comparisons Large socio-economic disparities High social equity Bereich Mathematik Seeing education through the Hong Kong-China 540 Chinese Taipei Canada New Zealand Estonai Japan Australia Netherlands Liechtenstein Korea Slovenia 520 Germany United Kingdom Czech Republic Switzerland Macao-China Belgium Austria Strong socio- Ireland Socially equitable Hungary economic impact on Sweden distribution of learning 500 student performance Poland Denmark opportunities France Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Croatia United States Latvia Iceland Slovak Republic Lithuania Spain Norway Luxembourg 480 Russian Federation Portugal Italy Greece 460 Low average performance Low average performance Israel Large socio-economic disparities High social equity 440 22 Low science performance 12 2
  • 29. 29 29prism of international comparisons Top and bottom performers in science These students can consistently identify, explain and apply scientific knowledge, link Seeing education through the different information sources and explanations and use evidence from these to justify decisions, demonstrate advanced scientific thinking in unfamiliar situations… These students often confuse key features of a scientific investigation, apply incorrect information, mix personal beliefs with facts in support of a position… Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Large proportion of top performers Large prop. of poor perf.
  • 30. Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19 30 30 associated with reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada) prism of international comparisons after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, Seeing education through the place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group Level 1) 20 18 16 14 12 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 10 8 6 4 2 0 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
  • 31. Asia-Pacific Forum Seeing education through the 24-26 March 2008 prism of international comparisons 31 31 Top performers matter Excellence in education and countries’ research intensity
  • 32. 32 32prism of international comparisons High ambitions Seeing education through the and universal standards Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Access to best practice and quality professional development
  • 33. 33 33 School principals’ perceptions of parents’ expectations Percentage of students in schools where the principal reported that regarding high academic prism of international comparisons standards Seeing education through the Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008
  • 34. 34 34prism of international comparisons High ambitions Seeing education through the Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action Accountability Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 and intervention in inverse proportion to success Access to best practice and quality professional development
  • 35. School autonomy, standards-based 35 35prism of international comparisons examinations and science performance School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire Seeing education through the PISA score in science Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008
  • 36. 36 36 Public and private schools Government schools Observed performance difference Government dependent private prism of international comparisons Government independent private Difference after accounting for socio-economic background of students and schools Seeing education through the % 0 20 40 60 80 -150 100 -100 -50 0 50 100 Score point difference Luxembourg Japan Italy Switzerland Finland Denmark Czech Republic Sweden Hungary Austria Public schools Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Private schools Portugal perform better perform better United States Netherlands Slovak Republic Korea Ireland Spain Canada Mexico New Zealand Germany OECD United Kingdom
  • 37. Pooled international dataset, effects of selected school/ 37 37prism of international comparisons system factors on science performance after accounting for all other factors in the model Seeing education through the School principal’s positive evaluation of quality of 64% of US students in Schools with more educational materials schools that compete with competing schools (gross only) more than 2 schools in same (gross only) Schools with greater area, 11% with one school, autonomy (resources) 26% with no school (gross and net) School activities to promote sciencehour of One additional learning self-study or homework (gross and net) One additional hour of (gross and net) science learning at school 91% of US students in School resultsnet) (gross and posted Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 schools posting achievement publicly (grossselective Academically and net) data publicly (OECD 38%) schools (gross and net) but no system-wide effect 26% of US students in Schools practicing ability schools with no vacant One additional hour of grouping (gross and net) science teaching positions Each additionallessons out-of-school 10% of School principal’s (gross funding public and net) (OECD 38%), 71% where perception that lack of all vacant positions had (gross only) Effect after accounting qualified teachers been filled (OECD 59%), for the socio-economic BUT 20% where principals Measured effect hinders instruction (gross only) background of students, report that instruction is schools and countries hindered by a lack of qualified science teachers OECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a
  • 38. 38 38prism of international comparisons Strong ambitions Seeing education through the Devolved Integrated responsibility, educational the school as the centre opportunities of action From prescribed Accountability forms of teaching and Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 assessment towards personalised learning Access to best practice and quality professional development
  • 39. High science performance 39 39 560 Durchschnittliche Finland High average performance High average performance Schülerleistungen im prism of international comparisons Large socio-economic disparities High social equity Bereich Mathematik Seeing education through the 540 Canada New Zealand Japan Netherlands Australia 520 Korea Germany United Kingdom Czech Republic Belgium Austria Switzerland Ireland Strong socio- Hungary Socially equitable Sweden economic impact on 500 Poland distribution of learning student performance France Denmark opportunities United States Spain Iceland Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Slovak Republic Norway Luxembourg 480 Portugal Greece Italy 460 Early selection and institutional differentiation Low average performance Low average performance High degree of stratification 440 Largedegree of stratification Low socio-economic disparities High social equity Low science performance
  • 40. 40 40prism of international comparisons High ambitions Seeing education through the Devolved Integrated responsibility, educational the school as the centre opportunities of action Accountability Personalised Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 and intervention in inverse proportion to learning success Access to best practice and quality professional development
  • 41. 41 41prism of international comparisons Some challenges Autonomy Control Seeing education through the Ì Greater discretion for Ì Strengthened central schools in establishing control on standard- the learning environment setting, assessment, and managing resources accountability Ì Expecting innovative and Ì Pressure to conform to Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 flexible learning precise, standardised organisations outcomes, and to contain risks .
  • 42. 42 42prism of international comparisons Some challenges Individual approaches Collective aspirations Seeing education through the Ì Individualising learning, Ì Learning through increasing complexity of interaction pathways Ì Individual-based Ì Success depends assessment and Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 increasingly on certification interpersonal competencies Ì Diversifying education Ì Securing equality in providers and provision opportunities .
  • 43. 43 43prism of international comparisons Seeing education through the Some challenges Expected functions Recognised outcomes Ì Growing expectations on Ì The terms in which schools that extend far schools are judged are beyond cognitive learning increasingly focussed on their success in Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 purveying cognitive knowledge .
  • 44. 44 44prism of international comparisons Some challenges Strong opinions Widespread ignorance Seeing education through the Ì Positive views of Ì Negative opinions about educational experiences the state of education in in the personal/local general on the basis of context far less knowledge Many views about what Limited transparancy of Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 Ì Ì takes place inside educational goals and classrooms based on processes . idiosyncratic experiences
  • 45. Creating a knowledge-rich profession in which schools and 45 45 teachers have the authority to act, the necessary knowledge to do so wisely, and access to effective support systems prism of international comparisons The future of education Seeing education through the systems is “knowledge rich” Informed Informed professional prescription judgement, the teacher as a “knowledge worker” National Professional Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 prescription judgement Uninformed Uninformed professional prescription, teachers judgement, teachers implement curricula working in isolation The tradition of education systems has been “knowledge poor”
  • 46. 46 46prism of international comparisons Why care? Ì Progress Seeing education through the  Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation – One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP – Rising college-level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%) Ì Fairness  Concerns about the role of skills in creating social inequity in economic outcomes – Both average and distribution of skill matter to long-term growth Ì Value for money
  • 47. 47 47 A second chance? Expected hours in non-formal job-related training (2003) prism of international comparisons This chart shows the expected number of hours in non-formal job-related education Seeing education through the and training, over a forty year period, for 25-to-64 year olds. 1400 All levels of education Lower secondary education % 1200 Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education 1000 800 600 Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 400 200 0 United States United Kingdom Netherlands Greece Sweden Luxembourg Belgium Austria Denmark Portugal Switzerland Germany Czech Republic France Spain Hungary Ireland Canada Finland Poland Italy Slovak Republic C5.1a
  • 48. 48 48prism of international comparisons www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org Seeing education through the  – All national and international publications – The complete micro-level database  email: pisa@oecd.org  Thank you ! Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org Asia-Pacific Forum 24-26 March 2008 … and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion