Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Sustain Demographic Dividend. Presentation in Italy_Dr. Wilcox. University of Virginia. USA
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Sustain Demographic Dividend. Presentation in Italy_Dr. Wilcox. University of Virginia. USA

605
views

Published on

In 2012, the World Family Map Project (WFMP) will launch a research initiative to track central indicators of family strength—i.e., indicators of family structure, family economic well-being, family …

In 2012, the World Family Map Project (WFMP) will launch a research initiative to track central indicators of family strength—i.e., indicators of family structure, family economic well-being, family processes, and family culture—around the globe, and to explore the associations between these strengths and the well-being of children.

The WFMP is designed to cast a spotlight on the welfare of children and families around the world, and to be a resource for governments, NGOs, policy makers, journalists, and others interested in the welfare of children and families.

The WFMP will be sponsored by Child Trends, a nonpartisan research organization in Washington, D.C., the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, and a range of universities and research institutes around the globe. W. Bradford Wilcox, associate professor of sociology and Director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, and Laura Lippman, senior research scientist at Child Trends, will co-direct the project, with advice from 12 other scholars from around the globe. Reynaldo Rivera at InterMedia Consulting is advising the project.


In the fall of 2012, the WFMP will release an international report featuring three pieces of new research:

1) An original article exploring the relationship between family structure, family economics, and children’s educational attainment in the developed world;
2) An original article exploring the relationship between family structure, family economics, and children’s educational attainment in the developing world; and,
3) A global map highlighting twenty of the latest trends in family structure, family economics, family process, and family culture in every major region of the world.

Published in: News & Politics, Technology

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
605
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. W. Bradford Wilcox National Marriage Project University ofVirginia 1
  • 2.  InterMedia Consulting (Italy)  The Institute of Marriage and Family Canada  Universidad de Los Andes (Chile)  University of Asia and the Pacific (Philippines)  Universitat Internacional Catalunya (Spain)  Universidad de la Sabana (Colombia)  Universidad de Piura (Peru) 2
  • 3.  1) How do global demographic trends affect the world’s leading economies?  2) Which sectors of the economy are most closely tied to the fortunes of the family? 3
  • 4.  How Do Marriage & Fertility Matter?  1) Economic growth & viable welfare states depend in part upon strong, sustainable families;  2) Key sectors of the economy—from household products to insurance to groceries—profit when adults marry & have children.  Why Do They Matter?  3) Men more likely to play a productive role in the economy when they get & stay married;  4) Children more likely to acquire human & social capital needed for workforce if raised in intact, married family.  What Is To Be Done?  5) Family-dependent companies should act in their own best interests to strengthen marriage & family life.
  • 5.  Fiscal crisis currently enveloping Europe is tied in part to demographics:  Almost 50% of recent increase in debt/GNP ratio in Western countries can be attributed to growing share of elderly (65+) (Eberstadt & Groth 2010)  Many countries have had long periods of low fertility  now translates into a relatively small working-age population in relation to retirees 5
  • 6. 6  Because of low fertility, workforce will shrink in much of Europe & East Asia in this century.  From 2010-2050:  Chinese workforce will decline by 21%  Japanese workforce will decline by 35%  Eastern European workforce will decline by 33%  Western European workforce will decline by 11%
  • 7.  The new face of East Asia is increasingly an elderly one.  Japan’s slow rate of growth since 1990s partly attributable to stagnating work force  Economists are now predicting slowing growth for South Korea and China as their populations age  Rand Report: “India will have more favorable demographics than China” for growth by the middle of the 21st century 7
  • 8.  The bottom line:  These demographic “trends portend ominous change in economic prospects [for many developed countries]: major increases in public debt patterns, and slower economic growth.” (Eberstadt and Groth 2010) 8
  • 9.  Some sectors of the economy seem particularly dependent on the health of strong, sustainable families.  In the United States, American who get married and have children spend more money in at least seven different sectors of the economy (Consumer Expenditure Survey 2008).
  • 10. 10
  • 11.  1) Household size  Bigger households buy more in bulk (Auchan)  2) Children  Married parents spend more on kids, in part because they pool income & benefit from economies of scale (Bocconi)  3) Domesticity  Married parents devote more attention to home maintenance/improvements & chores (Leroy Merlin) 11
  • 12.  After marrying:  Men work harder, work longer hours, work more strategically, & earn more money  In U.S., entry into marriage associated with at least 160 hours more of work for men, compared to similar peers  The income premium varies from 14% (Mexico), 16% (Germany), 19% (U.S.), 22% (Italy), 35% (Russia)  New status in life associated with responsibility & care for others (Assicurazioni Generali)  Sources: Geist 2009, Gorman 2000; Ahituv & Lerman 2011; Nock 1998 12
  • 13. 13
  • 14. 14  Children raised in intact, married homes are more likely to acquire the human and social capital they need to:  Get good grades  Steer clear of trouble with the law  Avoid a teenage pregnancy  Graduate from high school & college  Be gainfully employed as young adults.  Sources: Amato 2005; McLanahan & Sandefur 1994; Wilcox et al 2011; Haskins & Sawhill 2011
  • 15. 15 Intact Single 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % Young men in prison US Family Status Source: Harper and McLanahan 2004
  • 16. 16 Status of Father 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 The United States Dad Stayed Dad left 6-18 Dad left before six Family Status % Teenage girl pregnancy Source: Ellis et al.,2003
  • 17. 17 Intact Single 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 % Teens dropping out of high school US Family Status Source: McLanahan and Sandefur 1994
  • 18. 19 Girls-Tw o Girls-One Boys-Tw o Boys-One 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Sweden Suicide Drug # of parents Likelihood of Risk Source: Weitoft et al. 2003 Addiction
  • 19.  “Although it was once possible to believe that … high rates of … cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing represented little more than lifestyle alternatives brought about by the freedom to pursue individual fulfillment, many analysts now believe that these individual choices can be damaging to the children who have no say in them and to the society that enables them.”  - Ron Haskins, Sara McLanahan, and Elizabeth Donahue, Brookings-Princeton Policy Brief (2005) 20
  • 20.  The Second Demographic Transition has swept across Europe in the last 40 years:  More individualism, less religion, less familism  The demographic expressions of this transition are as follows:  European fertility rates falling below sustainability; and,  Marriage is less likely to ground family life of adults and children in Europe. 21
  • 21. 22
  • 22. 23
  • 23. 24
  • 24.  A recent study suggests that that the U.S. is 50-year low in individual life insurance (LIMRA 2010):  2004: 22% of households had no life insurance  2010: 30% of households had no life insurance  Declines largest among men aged 54 and under  Same story for Generali and other Italian insurance companies? 25
  • 25.  The primary answer will not be found in Brussels or Rome.  Civil society & the market have important roles to play.  Businesses have substantial power over:  Internal corporate culture  Corporate philanthropy  Advertising. 26
  • 26.  Popular culture appears to have played a major role in shaping demographic revolutions of post-World War II period.  Brazilian telenovelas  smaller families (Ferrara et al. 2008)  Businesses should get behind:  Shows  Ads  Social marketing campaigns  That reinforce positive messages about marriage & family life. 27
  • 27.  The bottom-line message of The Sustainable Demographic Dividend is that business, government, and civil society should strengthen the family because the wealth of nations & large sectors of the economy are tied to the fortunes of the family.  .
  • 28. 29  The National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia:  (http://www.virginia.edu/marriageproject)  The Social Trends Institute in Barcelona:  (http://www.socialtrendsinstitute.org)

×