La macroeconomía ecológica de la biodiversidad - Brian Czech

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  • The first law of thermodynamics, along with Einstein’s insight on the equivalence of energy and matter, tell us that neither energy nor matter may be created nor destroyed (although they may be transformed). This puts a ceiling on the amount of material and energy available for economic production. The second law, the entropy law, may be reduced to the statement that no production process may achieve 100% efficiency. The first and second laws do not allow for a perpetual increase in the production and consumption of goods and services. That is, they put a cap on economic growth.
  • The study of happiness in the fields of economics and psychology is gaining traction. This is a graphical depiction of the relationship between happiness and income. The X-axis is income per person, and the Y-axis is an index of self-reported happiness. The dots represent countries. So each country takes its spot on the graph based on how much money people receive and how happy they are on average. There seems to be a fairly clear relationship between income and happiness. Nations with high incomes tend to be happier. But the relationship starts to break down once a certain income threshold is surpassed. Once people can meet their needs and achieve some level of comfortable living standards, more income appears not to make them happier.
  • La macroeconomía ecológica de la biodiversidad - Brian Czech

    1. 1. Implications for International Diplomacy The Ecological Macroeconomics Of Biodiversity Conservation
    2. 2. www.steadystate.org
    3. 3. What We Know <ul><li>Causes of biodiversity decline </li></ul><ul><li>Basic relationship between human economy and economy of nature </li></ul><ul><li>Trade-off between economic growth and biodiversity conservation </li></ul>
    4. 4. <ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs) </li></ul><ul><li>Recreation, tourism development </li></ul><ul><li>Pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic livestock, ranching </li></ul><ul><li>247 </li></ul><ul><li>205 </li></ul><ul><li>160 </li></ul><ul><li>148 </li></ul><ul><li>143 </li></ul><ul><li>136 </li></ul>Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601 . Causes of Endangerment
    5. 5. <ul><li>Mineral, gas, oil extraction </li></ul><ul><li>Non-native species </li></ul><ul><li>Harvest </li></ul><ul><li>Modified fire regimes </li></ul><ul><li>Road construction/maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>Industrial development </li></ul><ul><li>134 </li></ul><ul><li>115 </li></ul><ul><li>101 </li></ul><ul><li>83 </li></ul><ul><li>83 </li></ul><ul><li>81 </li></ul>Causes of Endangerment (cont.) Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601 .
    6. 6. Economy of Nature Producers (i.e., plants) Consumers Super-Carnivores Service Providers
    7. 7. Human Economy Producers (i.e., ag/ext.) Heavy Manufacturing Light Manufacturing Service Providers
    8. 8. Human-Inclusive Economy of Nature Plants Animals Humans Service Providers
    9. 9. With Economic Growth Plants Animals Human Economy Service Providers
    10. 10. <ul><li>Increase in the production and consumption of goods and services in the aggregate </li></ul><ul><li>Typically expressed in terms of GDP </li></ul><ul><li>Entails increasing population and/or per capita consumption </li></ul>Economic Growth
    11. 11. <ul><li>Increase in the production and consumption of goods and services in the aggregate. </li></ul>Economic Growth
    12. 12. Economy as 800-Pound Gorilla
    13. 13. Coming out of the Corner and Growing
    14. 14. Not Economic Growth
    15. 15. Economic Growth
    16. 16. Time GDP K Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to economy of nature Macro-Allocation Czech 2000. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.
    17. 17. Fisheries Volume 30 Series Logo
    18. 18. K GDP ...maintain steady state economy sufficiently below K . To conserve biodiversity... Therefore Czech 2000. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14. Time
    19. 19. What would you say in response to this?
    20. 20. “ But what about technological progress?”
    21. 21. Czech, B. 2008. Prospects for reconciling the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation. Conservation Biology 22(6):1389- 1398. Also see… Supply Shock: Economic Growth at the Crossroads (Chapter 7)
    22. 22. <ul><li>Solow model </li></ul><ul><li>Lucas model </li></ul><ul><li>Romer model </li></ul>Y =  (K, L) Economic Growth Theory
    23. 23. <ul><li>1956, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” </li></ul><ul><li>Technological progress </li></ul><ul><li>“ Manna from heaven” </li></ul>Robert Solow Solow Model
    24. 24. <ul><li>1990, “ Endogenous Technological Change ” </li></ul><ul><li>Research and development </li></ul><ul><li>Patenting </li></ul>Paul Romer Romer Model
    25. 25. K T GDP Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to economy of nature X natural capital allocable Time   K U Macro-Allocation Revisited
    26. 26. Capital-free growth zone   K T 1 K T 2     GDP Time K U Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to economy of nature X natural capital (still) allocable Reconciliation Hypothesis
    27. 27. <ul><li>Fixed amount of energy, matter (E = mc 2 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Entropy; i.e. limits to efficiency in the economic production process </li></ul>Thermodynamics
    28. 28. R&D Sources of Technological Progress
    29. 29. R&D _______ Sources of Technological Progress
    30. 30. R&D Profits Sources of Technological Progress
    31. 31. Profits
    32. 32. R&D Competitive Advantage
    33. 33. R&D Profits Catch-22? Sources of Technological Progress
    34. 34. R&D ???????????????? Profits Sources of Technological Progress
    35. 35. R&D Profits Economies of scale Sources of Technological Progress Catch-22? ________________ ????????????????
    36. 36. <ul><li>Increased efficiency but necessarily with increased production using existing technology </li></ul><ul><li>Applicable at all levels in the economy (micro to macro and local to global) </li></ul>Economies of Scale
    37. 37. Economies of Scale
    38. 38. So, “What about technological progress?” <ul><li>Economic growth requires technological progress. </li></ul><ul><li>Technological progress requires economic growth. </li></ul><ul><li>No reconciling the trade-off between economic growth and biodiversity. </li></ul>
    39. 39. Capital-free growth zone   K T 1 K T 2     GDP Time K U Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to economy of nature X natural capital (still) allocable Reconciliation Hypothesis
    40. 40. X/2 re-allocated K T 2     GDP Time K U Natural capital allocated to human economy Natural capital allocated to economy of nature X/2 natural capital allocable Hypothesis Refuted K T 1
    41. 41. <ul><li>What is the optimum scale, all things considered? </li></ul><ul><li>Is GDP a reliable measure of scale? </li></ul><ul><li>Could ecological microeconomics lead to optimal scale? </li></ul>A Few Words About Optimum Scale
    42. 42. GDP K Unsustainable Unsustainable Sustainable
    43. 43. GDP K Unsustainable Unsustainable Optimal?
    44. 44. GDP K Unsustainable Unsustainable Anthropocentric Optimum Biocentric Optimum
    45. 45. GDP K Unsustainable Unsustainable Optimum Democratic Anthropocentric Optimum Biocentric Optimum
    46. 46. Human Welfare GDP Optimum All Things Considered
    47. 47. Optimum Uneconomic Growth All Things Considered Human Welfare GDP
    48. 48. MU GDP MDU Optimal Scale GDP Opt Modified from Daly and Farley 2010, Figure 2.2. 0 MU = MDU MDU = ∞ MU = 0
    49. 49. MU GDP MDU Economic Growth 0 Uneconomic Growth GDP Opt
    50. 50. Some Useful Metrics <ul><li>GDP </li></ul><ul><li>“ Greened” GDPs </li></ul><ul><li>Ecological Footprint </li></ul><ul><li>Genuine Savings </li></ul><ul><li>Living Planet Index </li></ul><ul><li>Millennium Assessment Accounts </li></ul><ul><li>Measure of Economic Welfare </li></ul><ul><li>Human Development Index </li></ul><ul><li>Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare </li></ul><ul><li>Genuine Progress Indicator </li></ul><ul><li>Gross National Happiness </li></ul>
    51. 51. Spheres of Sustainability Ecological Social Economic
    52. 52. Bigger Picture = Integration Ecological Economic Social
    53. 53. Ecological Economics Ecosystem Economy Society
    54. 54. Emphases of Indices LPI MEA MEW HDI ISEW GPI GS GGDP GDP EF GNH
    55. 55. Emphases of Indices LPI MEA MEW HDI ISEW GPI GS GGDP GDP EF GNH
    56. 56. Compliments of R. Costanza, Gund Institute for Ecological Economics
    57. 58. Psychic Welfare GDP/capita Happiness/Satisfaction Inglehart and Klingemann (2000)
    58. 59. Acknowledgments: Lockheed Martin GDP and Energy
    59. 61. GDP and Ecological Footprint Compliments of “GliderGuider”
    60. 62. ESA Listings and GDP 1973 1980 1990 2001 $10 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 R 2 = 98.4 Czech et al. 2000. Science 308:791-792.
    61. 63. Valuing Ecosystem Services <ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon sequestration </li></ul><ul><li>Water purification </li></ul><ul><li>Hurricane buffering </li></ul><ul><li>Pollination </li></ul><ul><li>Etc. </li></ul>
    62. 64. Ecological Microeconomics <ul><ul><ul><li>“ One of the most rapidly growing markets related to ecosystem services is the carbon market… It is speculated that this market may grow to some $44 billion by 2010.” </li></ul></ul></ul>2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
    63. 65. Ecosystem Services S P Supply
    64. 66. Ecosystem Services D S P Supply and Demand
    65. 67. Ecosystem Services S P Supply
    66. 68. Trophic Theory of Money Producers (i.e., ag/ext.) Heavy Manufacturing Light Manufacturing Service Providers Czech 2000. Shoveling Fuel for a Runaway Train.
    67. 69. Limits to Real Money Plants Animals Human Economy Service Providers
    68. 70. Natural capital D S 1 S 2 P 1 Trophic Conundrum P 2 More is needed, less is had.
    69. 71. Ecological Micro and Macro <ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Micro alone leads to the trophic conundrum. </li></ul><ul><li>Macro alone is tough political sledding. </li></ul><ul><li>Micro and macro: two tracks for the sustainable train. </li></ul>
    70. 72. Implications for International Diplomacy
    71. 73. Revisiting the “Steady State Revolution” Czech 2000. Shoveling Fuel for a Runaway Train.
    72. 74. Steady State Revolution <ul><li>Academic, social </li></ul><ul><li>Peaceable, not pacifist </li></ul><ul><li>Models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>abolition of child labor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>reduction of smoking </li></ul></ul>
    73. 75. <ul><li>  Liquidating class </li></ul><ul><li>Steady state class </li></ul><ul><li>Amorphic class </li></ul>Class Structure
    74. 76. Percentile: 80 99 100 Expenditures Consumption Classes Liquidating Class
    75. 77. Percentile: 80 99 100 Expenditures Consumption Classes Liquidating Class Steady State Class
    76. 78. Percentile: 80 99 100 Expenditures Consumption Classes Liquidating Class Steady State Class Amorphic Class
    77. 79. Liquidators Steady Staters Amorphs                        
    78. 80. Amorphic Class Steady State Class Liquidating Class Population
    79. 81. Liquidators Amorphs Ecological Capacity PovertyLine Some Steady Staters Most Steady Staters Consumption
    80. 82. Liquidators Amorphs Liquidators Amorphs Steady Staters Ecological Capacity PovertyLine Some Steady Staters Most Steady Staters Trickle-down Consumption
    81. 83. Maslow’s Hierarchy <ul><li>Nutrition </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><li>Love, affection, reproduction </li></ul><ul><li>Self-esteem </li></ul><ul><li>Self-actualization </li></ul>
    82. 84. Maslow’s Hierarchy <ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><li>Love, affection, reproduction </li></ul><ul><li>Self-esteem </li></ul><ul><li>Self-actualization </li></ul>
    83. 85. Precedent
    84. 86. Smoking and Conspicuous Consumption <ul><li>Both are conspicuous. </li></ul><ul><li>Both impact public health. </li></ul><ul><li>Both may be “socially constructed.” </li></ul>
    85. 87. Maslow’s Hierarchy <ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><li>Security </li></ul><ul><li>Love, affection, reproduction </li></ul><ul><li>Self-esteem </li></ul><ul><li>Self-actualization </li></ul>
    86. 88. “ Why emphasize attitude?” Quiz Which one works?
    87. 89. “ Put the horse before the cart.” Winner
    88. 90. Steady Statesmanship For International Diplomacy
    89. 91. Rich Nations Gobbling Resources at an Unsustainable Rate OAKLAND, California, March 30, 2004 (ENS) – Excessive consumption by the world’s richest nations is making life even more difficult for the world’s least fortunate, according to a new report by Redefining Progress… the wealthiest nations are depleting global resources at an unprecedented rate… mortgaging the future at the expense of today’s children, the poor and the long term health of the planet.
    90. 92. Liquidators Steady Staters Amorphs                        
    91. 93. GDP/Capita
    92. 94. United States 278,058,881 $35,831 - $9,963,127,765 # 9
    93. 95. Australia 19,357,594 $23,030 - $445,805,390 # 22
    94. 96. Colombia 45,659,709 $6,273 - $286,423,527 # 77
    95. 97. China 1,273,111,290 $3,535 - $4,500,448,410 # 96
    96. 98. Nigeria 126,635,626 $924 - $117,011,318 # 210
    97. 99. Afghanistan 26,813,057 $783 - $20,994,624 # 218
    98. 100. United Nations: A Table for Steady Statesmanship?
    99. 101. <ul><li>Strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Establish premises: i.e., limits to growth, therefore conspicuous consumption irresponsible. </li></ul><ul><li>Develop solidarity among steady-state nations, identify and discourage liquidators. </li></ul>
    100. 102. UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre; Global Footprint Network. 2004. Use the Ecological Footprint
    101. 103. “ Backtracking”
    102. 104. United States(s) Australia(s) Ecological Capacity PovertyLine Nigeria(s) Colombia(s) Trickle-down Consumption
    103. 105. United States(s) Australia(s) Global Friends Ecological Capacity PovertyLine Nigeria(s) Colombia(s) Trickle-down Consumption
    104. 106. But, for a quick act of steady statesmanship, please sign the CASSE position at: www.steadystate.org The End
    105. 110. Political Rationale <ul><li>No “everyone revolt against everybody” </li></ul><ul><li>Readily identifiable classes </li></ul><ul><li>Taps into predisposition of “Hummer haters” et al. </li></ul>
    106. 111. United States(s) Australia(s) Global Friends Ecological Capacity PovertyLine Nigeria(s) Colombia(s) Trickle-down Consumption
    107. 112. Thank you. The End
    108. 113. Revolutions as Episodes of Change <ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Magnitude </li></ul><ul><li>Pace </li></ul><ul><li>“ When evolution won’t cut it” </li></ul><ul><li>Punctuated political progress </li></ul>
    109. 114. Academic Phase <ul><li>Replacement of neoclassical growth theory </li></ul><ul><li>Refocusing of curricula </li></ul><ul><li>More public outreach </li></ul>
    110. 115. Social Phase <ul><li>“ Economic growth” reconstructed as uneconomic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Dollar spent is dollar burned </li></ul><ul><li>Castigation of the liquidating class </li></ul>
    111. 116. Amorphic Class Liquidating Class Steady State Class Consumption
    112. 117. Rationale for the Steady State Revolution <ul><li>Economic </li></ul><ul><li>Political </li></ul><ul><li>Social </li></ul><ul><li>Psychological </li></ul><ul><li>Ethical </li></ul>
    113. 118. Economic Rationale <ul><li>“ Trickle-down consumption” </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency (i.e., reduction of waste) </li></ul><ul><li>Equitable distribution </li></ul>
    114. 119. Ethics <ul><li>Equity (current, intergenerational) </li></ul><ul><li>Consistent with religions </li></ul><ul><li>“ Devil in the details” of castigation </li></ul><ul><li>Lenience overrated </li></ul>
    115. 120. Psychological Rationale <ul><li>Darwin challenging </li></ul><ul><li>Veblen explanatory </li></ul><ul><li>Maslow promising </li></ul>
    116. 121. <ul><li>Benefits to Wealthy Countries </li></ul><ul><li>Peaceable, diplomatic outlet for anti-sentiments </li></ul><ul><li>International stability </li></ul><ul><li>Movement toward self-sufficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Forced to deal with the inevitable prior to worst of catastrophes </li></ul>

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