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Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance
 

Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance

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    Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance Curar el planeta: La conservación de los bosques tropicales del mundo - William Laurance Presentation Transcript

    • Healing the PlanetConserving the world’s tropical forests
      William F. Laurance
      Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) & School of Marine & Tropical Biology
      James Cook University Cairns, Australia
    • Habitat loss
      Climate change
      Hunting
      Roads
      Fires
      Exotic pathogens
    • Is the sky falling?
    • Wright & Muller-Landau (2006): The Future of Tropical Forest Species
      Seriously challenge idea of large-scale species extinctions in the coming century
      Difficult to ignore:
      Prominent scientists
      Initially presented as Wright’s ATBC presidential address
      Key conclusions were widely distributed in a press release
    • Public forum
      Debating the Tropical Extinction Crisis
      National Museum of Natural History Washington, D.C.
      13 February 2009
    • Trust me
    • Epicenters of biodiversity
    • Recycling rainfall
    • Stabilizing streams & rivers
    • Protecting soils
    • Storing carbon
    • Massive carbon emissions
    • What is happening to the rainforests?
    • Burgeoning Industrialization & Globalization
      Globalization and industrial drivers of deforestation have grown sharply in past 1-2 decades
      Global industrial activity expected to expand 3-5 fold by 2050
      Butler & Laurance (2008) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
      Laurance (2009) ITTO Tropical Forest Update
    • Brazilian Amazonia
      i
      1980
      Per-capita deforestation rate has accelerated sharply
      Massive expansion of industrial-scale cattle ranching, soy farms, and logging
      1991
      Old-growth forest (%)
      1980
      1991
      2000
      2000
      Population density (no. km-1)
    • 7,500 km of new highways in Brazilian Amazon
      Triad of highways from Amazon to Pacific Ocean
      52,000 km of new logging roads in Congo Basin
      New roads opening up last intact forests in Sumatra
      Panama-Colombia Highway could decimate Darién wilderness
      2) Massive Road & Highway Expansion
      Laurance et al. (2009) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
      Laurance (2009) New Scientist
    • Deforestation
      Pandora’s Box Effect
      Fires
      Adeney et al. (2009) PLoS One
    • Illegal Gold Mining
    • The future of the Amazon?
      Modeling studies suggest dramatic increases in forest loss, fragmentation, and degradation over next 20 years
      • Deforested or heavily degraded
      • Moderately degraded
      • Lightly degraded
      • Pristine
      Laurance et al. (2001) Science
    • Gabon
      3) China’s Role in Illegal Logging
      Laurance (2006) Tropinet
      Laurance (2007) Newsletter of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
      Laurance (2008) Science
      Myanmar-China border
    • 4) Explosive Growth of Biofuels
      Oil palm
      Soy
      Laurance (2007) Science
      Scharlemann & Laurance (2008) Science
      Sugarcane
    • Projected increase in tropical land devoted to biofuel crops by 2030
      Pan-tropical increase could exceed 300 million hectares
      Rights & Resources Institute (2008)
    • ‘Corn connection’ to Amazon deforestation
      $11 billion/year for corn-ethanol subsidies
      Laurance (2007) Science
      Laurance (2008) New Scientist
      Corn production rises 25%, soy falls 19%
    • 5) Population Growth
      For many developing nations, growth is slowingonlyrelative to the breakneck pace in recent decades—and in some cases is still rising dramatically
      Source: Columbia University & Population Action International
    • Population and Biodiversity Hotspots
      Surviving habitat just 2.3% of global land area
      50% of vascular plant species
      42% of terrestrial vertebrate species
      Myers et al. (2000) Nature
    • 6) Emerging Pathogens
      Rinderpest
      Ebola
      Avian malaria
      White-nose disease
    • Chytrid fungus & amphibians
      Laurance et al. (1996, 1997) Conservation Biology
      Chytrid spore
    • 7) Climatic & Atmospheric Changes
      Cyclone Larry strikes north Queensland, March 2006
    • Rising CO2 levels
      • 1990s: emissions grew at 0.9% per year
      • 2000-2008 emissions grew at 3.5% per year
    • Rising Temperatures
      Global temperature anomalies (1850-2007)
    • How Will Global Warming Affect Tropical Climates?
    • Temperature Anomalies (oC) for 2070-2099
      Hotter conditions
      Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario
      All models predict rising temperatures, but vary in magnitude
    • Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day) for 2070-2099
      Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario
      Precipitation
      Predictions vary hugely, especially at finer scales
    • Warming & high-elevation biota
      Many elevational specialists in tropics
      High endemism
      Western Ghats, India
      Central Panama
    • Upland endemics in tropical Australia
    • Future scenario
      Bioclimatic models of future warming
      Even modest warming (1o C) and drying (10%) could dramatically reduce & fragment cool upland forests
      D. W. Hilbert et al. (2001) Austral Ecology
      Present day
    • Projected habitat declines for the Golden Bowerbird, an upland endemic
      S. E. Williams & D. W. Hilbert (2006), in Emerging Threats to Tropical Forests, Univ. of Chicago Press.
    • IPCC prediction range
      Projected vertebrate extinctions in tropical Australia
      Sharp acceleration above 2o C 
      S. E. Williams et al. (2003) Proceedings of the Royal Society B
    • Move over, polar bear?
      Laurance (2009) New Scientist
      Laurance (2009) Natural History
      Laurance (2009) The Ecologist
      Laurance (2010) Environment Magazine
    • 8) Environmental Synergisms
    • Forest fragmentation & fire
    • Laurance & Williamson (2001) Conserv. Biology
      Cochrane & Laurance (2002) J. Tropical Ecology
      Laurance (2003) Trends in Ecology & Evolution
      Laurance (2004) Phil. Trans. Royal Society B
      Cochrane & Laurance (2009) Ambio
    • Aftermath of recurring surface fires
    • Logging & hunting
      Laurance et al. (2006, 2008) Conservation Biology
      Laurance (2010) Africa Geographic Magazine
    • Fragmentation & climate change
      Rondônia, Brazil
      Central Panama
    • Synergisms are Killers
      Laurance & Useche (2009) Conservation Biology
    • Is it all bad news?
    • Positive trends
      The number and total area of reserves has risen, especially if one includes indigenous and semi-protected lands
      Public attitudes are changing in tropical countries
      Carbon-trading could help significantly
    • Thank You