Cambio global del territorio boscoso y la globalización económica - Eric Lambin


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  • Finally, by selecting the most consistent remote sensing data for the 1990s, combined with a critical analysis of other statistical and map sources for previous and further periods, we could reconstitute the forest cover trends in Vietnam for the last decades. This showed that a forest transition most likely occured in Vietnam during the 1990s, with the turning point around 1991-1993.
  • Conclusion.
  • !! Keep these three ideas in mind: Policies regarding domestic supply, Economic growth creating demand, Imports and displacement.
  • Imports of processed wood: pulp and paper, boards, sawnwood. Trucks loaded with illegal timber crossing the Cambodia – Vietnam border.
  • Displacement = total volume of wood consumed in Vietnam or transformed and exported from Vietnam, but extracted from forests in other countries. Imports of SPWP: 10-3 times other flows.
  • Cambio global del territorio boscoso y la globalización económica - Eric Lambin

    1. 1. Land use change in the globalization era Eric F. Lambin Stanford University & University of Louvain
    2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Forest transition </li></ul><ul><li>Causes & pathways </li></ul><ul><li>Ecological impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization & trade </li></ul><ul><li>Policy implications </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>Research question </li></ul><ul><li>How to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production? </li></ul>
    4. 4. Lambin & Meyfroidt, PNAS, 2011 Forest transition
    5. 5. Forest transition in Vietnam Meyfroidt & Lambin, Global Change Biology, 2008
    6. 6. Reforestation in marginal areas: Mountains, steep slopes
    7. 7. Remote sensing data District-level census data
    8. 8. Pathways of forest transitions <ul><li>Economic development path: Growth in off-farm jobs </li></ul><ul><li>Forest scarcity path: Tree plantations for forest products </li></ul><ul><li>State forest policy path: Changes in national forest policies </li></ul><ul><li>Globalization path: Labour out-migration, ecotourism, free trade </li></ul><ul><li>Smallholder, tree-based land use intensification path: </li></ul><ul><li>Agroforestry systems, fruit orchards, secondary successions... </li></ul>Rudel et al. 2005, Lambin & Meyfroidt, 2009
    9. 9. Ecological quality of regenerating forests Mean patch size Meyfroidt & Lambin, Global Change Biology, 2008 Plantations Natural forest regeneration
    10. 10. Regions of forest transitions <ul><li>Northern Costa Rica </li></ul><ul><li>Northern Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>Valdivia, Chile </li></ul><ul><li>Highland Ecuador </li></ul>Hall & Lambin, forthcoming
    11. 11. Potential to support biodiversity <ul><li>Patches of mature forest (size of core area) </li></ul><ul><li>Secondary forests (proximity to mature forest) </li></ul><ul><li>Monoculture tree plantations </li></ul>Hall & Lambin, forthcoming
    12. 12. Forest area and biodiversity potential Hall & Lambin, forthcoming Northern Costa Rica Natural forest regeneration Northern Vietnam Natural forest regeneration <ul><li>Valdivia Chile </li></ul><ul><li>Natural forests to </li></ul><ul><li>plantations </li></ul><ul><li>Highland Ecuador </li></ul><ul><li>Páramo to plantations </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture to plantations </li></ul>
    13. 13. Forest area and carbon Hall & Lambin, forthcoming Northern Costa Rica Natural forest regeneration Northern Vietnam Natural forest regeneration <ul><li>Valdivia Chile </li></ul><ul><li>Natural forests to </li></ul><ul><li>plantations </li></ul><ul><li>Highland Ecuador </li></ul><ul><li>Páramo to plantations </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture to plantations </li></ul>
    14. 14. Widely-held view <ul><li>Forest conservation through: </li></ul><ul><li>Land use zoning, </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural intensification. </li></ul><ul><li>Controlled by national-scale policies. </li></ul>
    15. 15. Expansion of international trade <ul><li>From 1961 to 2007: </li></ul><ul><li>cross-border trade in food commodities: x 5 </li></ul><ul><li>trade in raw timber products, pulp, paper products: x 7 </li></ul><ul><li>FAOSTAT, 2010 </li></ul>
    16. 16. <ul><li>Displacement effect (or leakage) </li></ul><ul><li>When land use decisions in a place lead to a migration of activities to another place, therefore causing land change in that other locality. </li></ul>
    17. 17. <ul><li>New forest policies in Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>Ban on roundwood exports : 1992 </li></ul><ul><li>Logging ban in natural forests: 1992, modified 1993, 1998, 2003 </li></ul>
    18. 18. <ul><li>Growth of the forestry sector since 1990s </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing domestic demand </li></ul><ul><li>Exports furniture industry </li></ul>
    19. 19. <ul><li>Growing timber imports in Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in processed wood imports </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing imports of illegal timber </li></ul>From EIA / Telapak
    20. 20. Input – Output balance: PRw+PRwIll+IRwL+IRwIll = PPr+ERw with: PRw = legal production of roundwood PRwIll = illegal production of roundwood IRwL = legal imports of roundwood IRwIll = illegal imports of roundwood PPr = production of processed wood ERw = exports of roundwood Displacement = IRwL+IPrL+IRwIll with: IPrL = legal imports of processed wood The forestry sector in Vietnam Meyfroidt & Lambin, PNAS , 2009
    21. 21. Displacement = 40% of 1992-2006 forest regrowth About 80% of it exported as value-added products Vietnam’s displacement of deforestation abroad Meyfroidt & Lambin, PNAS , 2009
    22. 22. Policy-induced leakage = 60 % of displacement Demand-driven leakage = 40 % of displacement Forest policy vs economic growth Meyfroidt & Lambin, PNAS , 2009
    23. 23. <ul><li>All recent forest transition countries: </li></ul><ul><li>Additional global land use change embodied in their wood imports offsets 74% of their total reforested area </li></ul><ul><li>With their agricultural exports, net displacement offsets 22% of their total reforested area </li></ul><ul><li>Total net displacement increasing to >50% in 2003-07 </li></ul><ul><li>Illegal timber trade not included </li></ul>Meyfroidt, Rudel, Lambin, PNAS , 2010
    24. 24. Argan woodlands, southern Morocco le Polain de Waroux & Lambin, Applied Geography 2011
    25. 25. Argan oil
    26. 26. <ul><li>45 % density decrease from 1970 to 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Forest cover change underestimated by forest area changes </li></ul>le Polain de Waroux & Lambin, Applied Geography 2011
    27. 27. Agricultural intensification and land sparing for nature <ul><li>Rebound (or take-back) effect: </li></ul><ul><li>New technology lowers costs and hence increases consumption due to lower prices, more income available to spend, substitution effects, economic growth </li></ul>Increasing the productivity of agriculture on the best farmland helps control deforestation by reducing the demand for new farmland
    28. 28. Evidence on land sparing with agricultural intensification <ul><li>National scale: Paired increases in yields and declines in cropland infrequent in 1990-2005 (Rudel et al., 2009) </li></ul><ul><li>Local scale: </li></ul><ul><li>Abandonment of slash-and-burn cultivation in uplands with lowland irrigation in the Philippines (Shively and Pagiola 2004) and Vietnam (Meyfroidt and Lambin 2008) </li></ul><ul><li>More cropland expansion for cash crops, with global market, elastic demand, frees up labor, attracts migrants (Anglesen and Kaimowitz, 1998) : soybean in Brazil, palm oil in Indonesia, … </li></ul>
    29. 29. <ul><li>Supply-side approach: Local factors controlling land use decisions by producers. </li></ul><ul><li>Demand-side approach: Transfer of global market signals to local producers and its potential to promote sustainable land use. </li></ul>Intervention on land use
    30. 30. Demand-side/market-based instruments affecting land use <ul><li>Certification, labels </li></ul><ul><li>Moratoria </li></ul><ul><li>Roundtables </li></ul><ul><li>Targeted NGO campaigns </li></ul><ul><li>(Payments for ecosystem services) </li></ul>
    31. 31. Value chain <ul><li>How are global market signals transmitted to local land managers? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in global demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand for high quality products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability criteria </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How do they affect land use decisions? </li></ul>
    32. 32. Ximena Rueda & Lambin, forthcoming Farmers who sell to differentiated markets capture a larger portion of the value added to consumers
    33. 33. Sources: For C Contract: ICE (NY exchange) For Differentials (Complete Coffee: daily survey among traders) For Farmer’s price and Nespresso Premiums: The Colombian Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) <ul><li>Price volatility transferred to producers </li></ul><ul><li>Less so for differentiated markets </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability premiums decrease with price increase </li></ul><ul><li>Change geographic distribution </li></ul>Ximena Rueda & Lambin, forthcoming
    34. 34. Halting deforestation? Forest area Time The forest transition
    35. 35. … or accelerating a land-use transition Time Forest area The forest transition
    36. 36. Land use transition <ul><li>A process of system change in land use in which </li></ul><ul><li>the structural character of the system transforms </li></ul><ul><li>Potential to spare land for nature </li></ul><ul><li>Neither a fixed pattern, nor deterministic </li></ul><ul><li>Large variability in trajectories </li></ul><ul><li>Influenced by globalization </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-border displacement of land use </li></ul>