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Peter Crossley, Director of the Joule Centre explores the future of energy

Peter Crossley, Director of the Joule Centre explores the future of energy

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  • 1. Peter Crossley PHD, CEng Director Joule Centre Smart Grids
  • 2. Peter Crossley Director of Joule Centre Why does E = mc 2 ? because E nergy requires m easurement, c ontrol & c ommunications
  • 3. What supplies our energy today Renewable Time of Day – 24hr cycle Demand on Network Capacity Limit Nuclear Coal/Gas
  • 4. How do we ensure the lights stay on in 2030? Can renewables, clean coal, gas, nuclear, storage & dispersed generation deliver the energy when we require it at a cost we can afford ? Renewable Demand on Network Capacity Limit Nuclear Clean Coal Time of Day – 24hr cycle Gas Demand profile Storage Dispersed Generation
  • 5. Demand increases above local network capacity? Growth in demand due to electric vehicles and domestic electric heating Demand on local distribution network Capacity Limit Time of Day – 24hr cycle Current Demand Future Additional Demand
  • 6. Dynamic Demand, Storage &Dispersed Generation lowers demand below capacity limit. Capacity Limit Time of Day – 24hr cycle Can we shift demand from times of peak energy use to periods of low use? or can we match demand to availability of low cost, low carbon energy Demand on ENWs Network Future Demand without load shifting Future Demand with load shifting
  • 7. UK Electrical Energy in 2009
    • How much electrical energy is used in the UK?
      • peak power consumption  58 GW (population = 60M)
      • average power consumption  40 GW (670W/person)
      • Energy req’d per person per day  16 kWh  £1.70
      • Energy req’d per person per year  5.8MWh  £620
      • How do we generate the electrical energy?
      • Coal=42%, Gas=38%, Nuclear=14%, Renewables=6%
    • How much energy does the average “Mancunian” use?
      • 1.5kW per person on transport
      • 1.6kW per person on heating
      • 0.67kW per person on electricity
  • 8. UK Future Electrical Req:
    • Assume:
      • electricity used for most types of “land” transport
      • efficiency improvements means transport EE power = 0.7kW/person (70M people = 50GW).
      • electricity used for most types of heating/cooling
      • Efficiency/insulation improvements means thermal EE power = 0.8kW/person (70M people = 60GW).
    • Total electricity power demand = 150GW average.
    • Total electricity energy demand = 1300 TWh/year
    • Annual cost (10p/kWh) = £130B = £1900/person
    • +3% per year EE cost increases = £2600 by 2020.
  • 9. How can UK obtain 150GW without CO 2 ?
    • Renewable Energy Resources (by 2030)
      • Wind (10,000 @ 6MW delivers  15GWaverage (10%))
      • Biomass (1,000 @ 10MW delivers  7.5GWaverage (5%))
      • Solar (10k@1MW + 1M@1kW delivers  3GWaverage (2%))
      • Waves/Tidal (1k@1MW + 6@1GW delivers  3GWaverage (2%))
      • Hydro (1k@100kW + 20@100MW delivers  1.5GWaverage (1%))
        • Total renewables = 30GW (20% of total EE average demand )
    • Non-renewable “clean” energy
      • nuclear (fission) = (25 @ 2GW = 45GWaverage (30%))
      • Coal with CCS = (10 @ 2GW = 15GWaverage (10%)
    delivers 90GW of “clean” energy (60%). Also requires 60GW of “dirty” energy
  • 10. How can UK cope with intermittency of supply ?
    • Need to match demand to intermittency of supply
    • Assume:
      • “ clean energy” base supply of 70GW
      • “ time varying” energy supply of 0 to 60GW (renewables)
      • expensive “dirty” energy supply of 60GW
    • In 2040:
      • average electricity costs = 25p/kWh
      • actual costs vary 10p/kWh to 100p/kWh .
    • How does the consumer “minimise” energy costs ?
    Intermittency
  • 11. “ smart” UK domestic consumer ?
    • (cost depends on time of day, date and weather)
    • Consider:
      • person with average home weekly EE demand of 1.0kW (47% of total demand associated with all aspects of life)
      • daily home EE energy demand = 24kWh
      • cost = 10p/kWh for 8 hours on a windy, mild April night
      • at night, energy computer turns on car charger, smart appliances, hydrogen electrolyser, thermal & electrical storage etc.
      • Energy used at 10p/kWh = 16kWh = £1.60
      • If average day time cost = 30p/kWh, 8kWh = £2.40
    Total 24 hour energy cost = £4.00
  • 12. “ destroy the planet” domestic consumer
    • Consider:
      • person with no thermal insulation, no time switches, no energy controller, no energy store, instant water and thermal heaters, latest ultra-fast entertainment system, halogen spot lights, electric hummer car.
      • Assume average personal weekly power demand of 2.0kW, i.e. daily home EE energy demand = 48kWh
      • cost = 50p/kWh from 8am-8pm on a cold, still January day.
      • consume all 48kWh at peak time:
    Total 24 hour energy cost = £24
  • 13. Future
    • ?