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Where will Manchester be in 2030? Presented by Mike Ryan from Idaho Digital.

Where will Manchester be in 2030? Presented by Mike Ryan from Idaho Digital.

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  • 1. manchester 2030 mike ryan futurologist copyright 2010 Welcome, thanks to MKC for letting me do this talk. I’ve a lot to cover in 15 minutes so lots of skimming and not much depth.
  • 2. predicting the future has never been easy: “Man will not fly for 50 years” First successful flight by man Wilbur Wright, 1901 Wilbur & Orville Wright, 1903 Wright Brothers deserve their place in aviation history. This is a statement wilber wright made in 1901. The Kitty Hawk flew 4 successful flights as this telegraph shows 2 years after Wilbur said it would take 50.
  • 3. speed economy cities learning speed - our world is moving into overdrive economy - transition to a new world and challenges for the workforce with new sorts of jobs cities - transport in 2030, hitting our sweet spot learning - the move from 20th century to 21st century
  • 4. speed
  • 5. manchester 1910 this is Manchester a century ago. Look carefully. The world was very different then. why am I showing you this? we’re supposed to be looking at 20 years in the future. many people believe in the next 20 years the world will change as much as the last 100.
  • 6. “The World will advance 100 years in the next 20 ” * * Ray Kurzweil Theory of Singularity 2008 Ray Kurzweil a renowned Futurologist and author of the singularity is near has proven his theory of singularity which shows the planet evolving at a logarithmic pace. So the next 100 years on earth will evolve like the last 22,000.
  • 7. 1950 10 years 50 years 10 days 1980 6 years 20 years 5 days 2010 2 years 2 years 24 hours 2030 50 days 300 days instantly We can all see this in the pace of change of things around us. Cars now take 2 years from design to appearing in the showroom A new city the size of Manchester was built in China and populated in 2 years - shifting and growing populations will need us all to be that adept. Banking and transactions are nearly instant and solely digital money is a blink away.
  • 8. Evolution 4221 2250 1476 830 630 Like the seven ages of man, technology is evolving at a faster and faster speed. Here are some well known technology brands: Google, Facebook, Twitter,BBC Iplayer and Apple IPhone App store. Can anyone guess what the numbers are appearing under each logo? The number of days each has existed. The iplayer is less than 3 years old yet 70 million progammes are watched this way each month. The Iphone App store is yet to reach its second birthday yet as you will see is disrupting business models in so many ways.
  • 9. app store 100,00 apps 1,000 more a day $2.7 billion The App store has over 100,00 apps and in feb the number of new apps submitted grew to 1,500 a day. That marketplace is worth 2.7 billion and see no sign of it waining. Growth is so dramatic the app store could easily top a million apps by then end of 2011 and generate $32billion which puts it at the same level of sales as coca cola worldwide.
  • 10. by 2030 by 2030 However we won’t have an iphone by 2030. Experts predict phones will be replaced with web enabled contact lenses that overlay digital information on top what we see. You will literally walk into a room of strangers and know their names and what their facebook profile says before even talking to them.
  • 11. economy Lets quickly look at how our economy will develop. I haven’t time to go into specific sectors but want to explore some important issues.
  • 12. democracy 2005 General Election 2010 18+ users 24 million voted * 21.1 million * *www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2005/RP05-033.pdf *Facebook stats Feb 2010 2010 will bring us the next general election. 2005 was a decidedly analogue affair but 2010 is already shaping up to to be different. Just look at the way in which President Obama employed one of facebook’s founders as his communications director and how important the web was to his victory - and the voices of ordinary Americans. The number of UK facebook users over 18 is over 21 million. The jury’s out on how important they (or online) will be in this election but it will become the main battleground in future elections through the end of this decade and beyond.
  • 13. economic transition 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Knowledge Economy Care Economy Machine Economy Ian Pearson Futurizon 2008 Technology and computers will do lots more for us and force us to concentrate on what makes us human. Empathy and emotions will play a big part and human contact will dominate the economy. In this new care economy advances in AI take the economic value of intelligence and force people to focus on their human side - something AI will not manage for another couple of decades. We will always place a higher value on human made artifacts even though machines can make to higher provision and tolerances than we can. A new age of art will dominate in the 2020’s before AI itself becomes creative and designs stuff better than humans. We begin to enter the machine age shortly afterwards.
  • 14. generational change Generation X born 1961 -1981 post baby boomers long form readers Generation Y born 1980 - 1999 net generation short form readers Generation Z born 1999 - digital natives incredible multi-tasking The past 30 years have delivered 3 distinct generations of people. Generation X, the post baby boomers who share most in common with the generation before. Often lovers of long form (books) and familiar with the world we are leaving. A lot has been written about Generation Y, the oldest of which are just leaving university. This group are wired and consummate surfers who prefer to gain knowledge in bursts online, than through books. They are highly capable with the technology and freely give their opinion online and value blogging and chats. Generation Z are just coming getting into education and are re-shaping it by their multi- tasking and natively digital approach. They are a new breed which will challenge to the core the values of Generation X and probably out perform online those from Generation Y. What is most interesting is the fact that for the next two decades Generation X,Y and Z will all make up our workforce - and the challenge is for a business to take the skills of each and make the most powerful teams the world has known.
  • 15. new sectors, new jobs ‣Old Age Wellness Manager / Consultant ‣Vertical Farmer ‣Nano-Medic ‣Climate Change Reversal Specialist ‣New Scientists Ethicist Taken from “The shape of jobs to come” by Fast Futures Jan 2010
  • 16. cities
  • 17. energy Each Energy Server provides 100kw of green power www.bloomenergy.com Bloom energy is already in trials with Ebay, Google and Amazon with 100kw fuel cell servers. An ex NASA scientist has raised $400 million to form this company offering power servers - the size of a car park space - enough to power 100 homes and costing $800k each. They expect a home server that powers an entire home for $3000 by 2020.
  • 18. transport
  • 19. transport : cars green tiny footprint rented by the hour computer controlled MIT Stackable Cars Media Lab 2007- Stackable cars were shown to me at MIT media lab 2 years ago. Computer controlled with motors on each wheel, this is how most manufacturers are developing electric vehicles. Ask yourself about what this will disrupt. Who needs insurance if their are no accidents? If car parts can be digitally printed on demand what will happen to part manufacturers and garages when servicing could be done by machines. Smart highways and roads will create efficient commutes where the only vehicles allowed on are computer controlled and stackable cars travel within mm of the next - and the roads could be embedded with wi-tricity - wireless electricity and never need to carry batteries.
  • 20. transport: air The airline industry will continue to clean up its act. Ironically it is computers that cause more carbon pollution than planes. Whether its solar power or energy cells like the technology we saw from bloom energy a zero emission commercial aircraft will happen.. eventually. We cannot rule out technologies’ march of disruption and may find we are teleporting around the place by 2030!
  • 21. the city ‣digital mesh over the cityscape ‣areas of fun and gaming ‣green and pollution free ‣community care ‣destination beyond business and retail MIT Technology Review / Futurizon research This futuristic walkthrough illustrates what many people expect the city of the future to look like. However we have to think about the type of city we want for the future not just what it is built like. Firstly any successful city will have a free to access high speed digital mesh that will encourage the merging of online and real worlds. Cities have to become places for fun and excitement - and technology can provide enormous screens for interactive games - imagine playing tetris on the side of tower block in spinningfields? Future citizens will not have respiratory complications due to fossil fuel pollution - we may have urban farming and all need to breathe pure air. None of us would tolerate victorian smog now so will the next generation tolerate our polluting ways? Future cities need excellent community care. In a care society no-one can be excluded and human life will always be valued above machines - however smart they get. We need to plan now for two possible changes to our city - that cities become too costly for business or retail to flourish as they do now. For cities to be relevant in a future world we need to think about offering new reasons of work and habitation and take nothing for granted.
  • 22. sweet spot planning more more 2030 care services less 2010 less less cost more
  • 23. learning
  • 24. learning and work The ‘20th century’ model Got Game, Harvard Press ‣knowledge delivery is still fact heavy ‣the linear system is inflexible and not inclusive ‣informal social interaction is often not recognised as learning ‣linear long form model out of sync with ‘short form’ learners ‣teaching is based on a model our parents experienced
  • 25. learning and work The 21st century model Got Game, Harvard Press ‣computers know facts people just need to interpret them ‣relationships and understanding people key to work ‣ability to interact with AI machines a vital skill ‣multi-tasking encouraged and many jobs are freelance based ‣learning is often ad-hoc, life long and inclusive
  • 26. conclusion
  • 27. conclusion ‣ measure change in days not years ‣ prepare for the care economy ‣ how will Gen. X,Y and Z working together? ‣ cities should embrace (and build) the digital mesh ‣ how will we succeed in educating Generation Z?
  • 28. Thank you mike@idaho.uk.net contributions from MIT Technology Review www.technologyreview.com The shape of jobs to come, Fast Futures Report 2009 2009-2012 Strategic Report, AGMA and the Commission Got Game, how the gamers will rule the world, Harvard 2007 Ian Pearson, Futurizon info@futurizon.net David Crowther, www.melandra.com

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