Innovation and the Future

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Ovid, Metamorphoses permanent. There is nothing in the whole world which is being with a changing nature;Everythin g flows onward; all things are brought into ent. the ages themselves glide by in constant movem

CHANGEoften occurs not slowly and incrementally but discontinuously and in big leaps. The arch, the pulley, the compass, eyeglasses,moveable type, the steam engine, the cotton gin, asphalt, the Model T, elevators, structural steel, the atomic bomb: these areinventions whose impact has extended far beyond the activities for which their creators built them. Ultimately, the havoc theyvisited on social, political, and economic systems has outweighed the impact of their intended usage.HTTP://WWW.EBBEMUNK.DK/KILLER_IFRAMES/KILLER_APP.HTML WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/VISBEEK/2242177289

Until the 21st Century,the history of invention and innovationwas a history of killer apps. A killer app is a new good or service that establishes an entirely new category and, by being ﬁrst, dominates it, returning several hundred percent on the initial investment. The personal computer, electronic funds transfer, and the ﬁrst word processing program are all examples of killer apps.

50 years ago, developing break-through innovation seemed to be comparably easy. HTTP://DCMEMORIES.COM/50_0903POSTNEWTVWEEK.JPG

HTTP://WWW.RECHENKASTEN.DE/VARIOUS/BROTHER_PROCAL_514/BROTHER_PROCAL_412_BEDIENUNGSANLEITUNG_2_BIG.JPG Because products were easy.

And the worldwas, too. Interesting Facts about Th e 1950’s A Dog named Laika be 12" records cost $4.85 came the first live anim . al to enter space. A Ford car cost $1339- $2262. A loaf of bread cost 14 cents. A new house cost $14,5 00. A postage stamp cost 3 cents. Castro became dictator of Cuba. CBS begins broadcastin g in color. Gas was 20 cents a ga llon. Hula Hoops became po pular. Legos were introduced McDonalds corporation . founded. Pillsbury and General Mi Milk was 82 cents a ga lls began offering prep llon. ared cake mixes. The average income wa The color television set s $3,216 a year. was introduced in the The first atomic Submari USA. The first hydrogen bomb ne was launched. was ordered by preside nt Harry Truman. The first modern credit card was invented. The first photocopying The first self-service ele machine was created. vator is installed by Otis Elevator in Dallas. The population of the wo rld was 2.52 billion The TV remote control was invented. Unemployment was 5.3 % WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/27334278@N05/4093202275

Today, the world hasbecome complex. In 2008, about 40 exabytes (that’s 4.0 x 1019) of unique new information were generated worldwide. That’s estimated to be more than in the previous 5,000 years. The amount of new technical information is doubling every 2 years. It’s predicted to double every 72 hours by 2010. HTTP://WWW.BERGOIATA.ORG/FE/ESCHER-LEGO/MC.ESCHER_IN_LEGO.JPG

And so are products.HTTP://WWW.GUENTHOER.DE/DOKU/DOKU-PANASONICTR1030P.GIF

And innovation,of course. HTTP://WWW.DUBBERLY.COM/CONCEPT-MAPS

The key to future success lies inreducing complexity.

And inforeseeing the future.

the future? HTTP://WWW.WALLPAPERBASE.COM/WALLPAPERS/3D/SCIENCEFICTION/SCIENCE_FICTION_7.JPG

the future?The best way to predict the future is to invent it. This is the century in which you can be proactive aboutthe future; you dont have to be reactive. The whole idea of having scientists and technology is that thoseTHINGS YOU CAN ENVISION AND DESCRIBE CAN ACTUALLY BE BUILT. Alan C. Kay HTTP://WWW.WALLPAPERBASE.COM/WALLPAPERS/3D/SCIENCEFICTION/SCIENCE_FICTION_6.JPG

Again:THINGS YOU CAN ENVISION ANDDESCRIBE CAN ACTUALLY BE BUILT.

It‘s staggering how much ofwhat we do today is last generation‘sscience ﬁction.Dean Kamen, inventor of the Segway

SOME EXAMPLES...

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors WWW.AC-NANCY-METZ.FR/ENSEIGN/ANGLAIS/HENRY/SCUBA-DIVER.JPG SCUBA DIVING as imagined by Jules Verne in 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea (1875) Although diving gear was nothing new, even in 1875, it was then only possible through a pipe to the surface and a semi-rigid suit. Captain Nemo introduces Arronnax to a portable system of diving in which air is compressed into a tank that is then ‘ﬁxed on the back by means of braces, like a soldier’s knapsack.’ The progression of the aqualung continued through the early part of the 20th century, but was not perfected until the 1940s.WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML

Science-Fiction predictions that came true Common technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML TEST-TUBE BABIES as imagined by Aldous Huxley in Brave New World (1932) Brave New World is one of the most famous glimpses into an imagined future, and author Aldous Huxley’s imagination conjured up a world where the population is not born naturally but from a machine, where their genes can be perfected and the nutrition controlled. This pre-dates the arrival of so-called test tube babies, where the egg is fertilised outside of the body, by some 46 years – although in reality a human is still needed for the pregnancy, which means youll have to hold off on suggesting a test-tube babys star sign is Pyrex...FC01.DEVIANTART.COM/IMAGES/LARGE/INDYART/ANIME/THE_TEST_TUBE_BABIES.JPG

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors ROBOTS as imagined by Karel Capek - Rossum’s Universal Robots (1920) There are links to mechanical servants traceable back to Greek Mythology and the legend of Pygmalion, but the ﬁrst use of the word robot in its modern usage comes from Capek’s play R.U.R – the root is from the Czech word ‘robota’ which means drudgery, although the author kindly gave credit to his brother Josef who had suggested the term. WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML WWW.INNOVATIONJOURNALISM.ORG/DOER/UPLOADED_IMAGES/ROBOT-750480.JPG

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors CCTV as imagined by George Orwell in ‘1984’ (1949) In one of the most famous dystopian imaginings, George Orwell plunged his character Winston into a world of paranoia and suspicion, watched over by the sinister Big Brother. First published back in 1949, Orwell pictured a life where the populace was watched over by telescreens, with nobody ever sure if they were being watched. CCTV arrived as a means of watching the public in the 1970s, and there are now an estimated four million cameras in the UK alone. WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML IMG.ARCHIEXPO.COM/IMAGES_AE/PHOTO-G/BLACK-AND-WHITE-CCTV-MONITOR-46520.JPG

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors THE SCREENSAVER as imagined by Robert Heinlein in Stranger in a Strange Land (1961) Heinlein talks of a television screen ‘disguised as an aquarium’ in his book Stranger in a Strange land, with guppies and tetras swimming around, describing the now familiar site of a computer screen with ﬁsh ﬂoating serenely across it. Screen savers were brought in to stop an image being burnt on to a screen, and even the advent of monitors much more resistant to this problem has not really curbed their usage. WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML WWW.WINSUPERSITE.COM/IMAGES/REVIEWS/WXP_PLUS_028.GIF

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors THE INTERNET as imagined by Mark Twain in ‘From the London Times of 1904’ (1898) WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/DULLHUNK/2053007240 "The improved limitless-distance telephone was presently introduced, and the daily doings of the globe made visible to everybody, and audibly discussable too, by witnesses separated by any number of leagues." A little bit more a stretch for this one, but back in 1898, Twain wrote of a global communications network called the telelectroscope that you could see and hear through – pretty good going for the 19th Century! The Internet, or at least the American military precursor to it named ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency NETwork), was ﬁrst brought about in 1969, as a way of keeping lines of communication open in the event of a major attack during the Cold War.

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors WWW.TODAYSTEN.COM/2007/03/10-PREDICTIONS-THAT-CAME-TRUE.HTML THE VIDEO IPOD as imagined by HG Wells in ‘When The Sleeper Wakes’ (1899) Wells, the writer of some of the most important books in science ﬁction, came up with a device that sounds almost exactly like a modern day media player such as a video iPod in his book ‘When The Sleeper Wakes. His version was a ﬂat square with a little picture that was ‘very vividly coloured.’ Not only were the people on the screen moving, but they were conversing with clear small voices. HTTP://BLOG.CHIP.DE/SCHNAEPPCHEN-BLOG/WP-CONTENT/UPLOADS/2007/09/APPLE-IPOD-NANO-FARBEN.JPG

AND SO ON...

Again:THINGS YOU CAN ENVISION AND *DESCRIBE CAN ACTUALLY BE BUILT. * This means: Companies need a tool to connect innovation and imagination.

AIDA ARIZ Advantages, Limitations and Unique Qualities Algorithm of Inventive Problem Solving Alternative ScenariosAnalogies Anonymous Voting Assumption Busting Assumption Surfacing Attribute Listing Backwards Forwards PlanningBoundary Examination Boundary Relaxation BrainSketching Brainstorming Brainwriting Browsing Brutethink Bug ListingBulletProofing Bunches of Bananas CATWOE Card Story Boards Cartoon Story Board Causal Mapping Charette CherrySplit Chunking Circle of Opportunity Clarification Classic Brainstorming Collective Notebook Comparison tablesComponent Detailing Concept Fan Consensus Mapping Constrained BrainWriting Contradiction Analysis ControllingImagery Crawford Slip Writing Creative Problem Solving - CPS Criteria for idea-finding potential Critical Path Diagrams DOIT Decision seminar Delphi Dialectical Approaches Dimensional Analysis Disney Creativity Strategy Do Nothing DrawingEscape Thinking Essay Writing Estimate-Discuss-Estimate Exaggeration Excursions F-R-E-E-Writing Factors in sellingideas False Faces Fishbone Diagram Five Ws and H Flow charts Focus Groups Focusing Force-Field Analysis Force-FitGame Free Association Fresh eye Gallery method Gap Analysis Goal Orientation Greetings Cards Help-Hinder HeuristicIdeation Technique Hexagon Modelling Highlighting Idea Advocate Idea Box Ideal Final Result Imagery ManipulationImagery for Answering Questions Imaginary Brainstorming Implementation Checklists Improved Nominal Group TechniqueInterpretive structural modeling Ishikawa Diagram KJ-Method Keeping a Dream Diary Kepner and Tregoe methodLaddering Lateral Thinking Listing Listing Pros and Cons Metaplan Information Market Mind Mapping MorphologicalAnalysis Morphological Forced Connections Multiple Redefinition NAF NLP Negative Brainstorming Nominal GroupTechnique Nominal-Interacting Technique Notebook Observer and Merged Viewpoints Osborns Checklist Other PeoplesDefinitions Other Peoples Viewpoints PDCA PIPS PMI Paired Comparison Panel Consensus Paraphrasing Key WordsPersonal Balance Sheet Pictures as Idea Triggers Pin Cards Plusses Potentials and Concerns Potential Problem AnalysisPreliminary Questions Problem Centred Leadership Problem Inventory Analysis - PIA Problem Reversal ProductiveThinking Model Progressive Hurdles Progressive Revelation Provocation Q-Sort Quality Circles Random Stimuli Rawlinson Which one?Brainstorming Receptivity to Ideas Reframing Values Relational Words Relaxation Reversals RoleStorming SCAMMPERRSCAMPER SDI SODA SWOT Analysis Sculptures Search Conference Sequential-Attributes Matrix Similarities andDifferences Simple Rating Methods Simplex Six Thinking Hats Slice and Dice Snowball Technique Soft Systems MethodStakeholder Analysis Sticking Dots Stimulus Analysis Story Writing Strategic Assumption Testing Strategic ChoiceApproach Strategic Management Process Successive Element Integration SuperGroup SuperHeroes SynecticsSystematic Inventive Thinking TILMAG TRIZ Talking Pictures Technology Monitoring Thinkx Thril Transactional PlanningTrigger Method Trigger Sessions Tug of War Using Crazy Ideas Using Experts Value Brainstorming Value EngineeringVisual Brainstorming Visualising a Goal Who Are You Why Why Why Wishing Working with Dreams and Images

WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/28688905@N06/2727965034Don‘t look for needs to fill them.Create a need that only you can fill!Today, a very widespread innovation approach is: to find a need and fill it. We dont get many new ideas out ofthat because if you ask most people what they want, they want just what they have now, 10 percent faster, 10percent cheaper, with 10 percent more features. Its kind of a boring way to predict the future. But if we look atthe big hitters in the 20th century, like the Xerox machine, like the personal computer, like the pocket calculator,all of these things did something else. They werent contaminations of existing things. They werent finding aneed and filling it. They created a need that only they could fill. Their presence on the scene caused a need to befelt, and almost paradoxically the company was there to create the need and fill the need. Nobody needed tocopy until the Xerox machine came along. Nobody needed to calculate before the pocket calculator came along.When mini computers and micro computers came in, people said, "What do we need those things for? You cando everything now on the mainframe." And the answer was, "Of course, you can do all those things on themainframe, but its for all the extra things you can do that you wouldnt think of doing on the mainframe." HTTP://WWW.ECOTOPIA.COM/WEBPRESS/FUTURES.HTM

Back from Future ScenariosThink yourself into a far future. A future with no physical or mental determinations. Create a world that appears wishful to you. Think peopleinto this world who feel pretty much in harmony with what they do and with how they do it. Use personas for a better understanding, andstart imagining their normal life before you focus on the areas connected with your business. Think what would be great, not what isprobable. Try to set yourself free from today‘s limitations. It is important that you write down your thoughts and ideas, and that you start toconstruct a story because this helps your brain to free its creative capacities. Use all insights that you have about the future – social,political and demographic developments, shifts in values, expected developments in the technology sectors, future studies and so on – tosubstantiate your plot. Science ﬁction material – books, movies, sketches etc. – can help you dive into your future world. The resultingscenarios are a good platform to think about possible challenges in the near future and opportunities on how to solve them. WWW.BRYANAPPLEYARD.COM/BLOG/UPLOADED_IMAGES/DSC_0006_1-701891.JPG

Creating a need that only you can ﬁll: today near future far future

Creating a need that only you can ﬁll: 1 creative future scenario planning today near future far future

Creating a need that only you can ﬁll: 1 creative future scenario planning today near future far future 2 problem-oriented backwards thinking

Creating a need that only you can ﬁll: 1 creative future scenario planning today near future far future 3 future-oriented problem-solving 2 problem-oriented backwards thinking

ADVISES FOR INNOVATORS WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/79748768@N00/266961775

Be investigative – Explore the places where future already happens. VIEW.JPG ES/LABS/BIG_ETSY_LABS_WIDE_TEAM.ETSY.COM/PRESS/IMAG

MEDIA.PHOTOBUCKET.COM/IMAGE/FIFTH%20ELEMENT/KYSTERAMA/SCREENSNAPERIMAGE27COPY.JPG Exploit science ﬁction – Read SF books, watch SF movies, explore virtual worlds. School is certainly not about the future. If schools were future oriented, they would be full of classes in programming, multimedia literacy and creation, astronautics, bioethics, genomics, and nanotechnology. Science ﬁction and fantasy literature would be a part of the curriculum, as representative of alternative visions of the future. MARC PRENSKY

Be courageous –Even the strangest ideawill ﬁnd its fans. HTTP://MES56.WORDPRESS.COM/2 009/01/22/LAND-OF-THE-FREE-BY-STEVE-SCHOFIELD /

WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/MAGICZNESEOISEM/4058589381Be optimistic –There is a market for(almost) everything.

Be multifunctional – Don‘t think in product categories, think in usage scenarios. TOUCHGOLD.DE/BLOG/DO WNLOADS/ITUNES8_1.JP GAs the center of economic activity in the developed world shifts inexorably from industrial manufacturing to knowledge creation and servicedelivery, innovation has become nothing less than a survival strategy. It is, moreover, no longer limited to new physical products but includes newsorts of processes, services, interactions, entertainment forms, and ways of communicating and collaborating. FROM THE BOOK CHANGE BY DESIGN BY TIM BROWN

Think global – Prepare for the new emerging markets.Approximately a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade as economic growth in emerging markets pushes them beyondthe threshold level of 5,000 in annual household income – the point where people generally begin to spend on discretionary goods. The consumers spendingpower in emerging economies will increase from 4 trillion today to more than 9 trillion in 2015. This is nearly the current spending power of Western Europe. HTTP://WWW.SYMPOSION.DE/?CMSLESEN/Q0002050_25720101

WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/30828227@N05/2888547968Be cooperative –Give your customers thechance to co-create.

Be farsighted – PHOTOBUCKET.COM/IMAGE/FACEBOOK%20HEADQUARTER/VERRIFEN/FB2.JPG Nurture an innovation culture in your company.Tricks from the designers toolkit – user observations, brainstorming, prototyping, storytelling, and scenario building – are invaluable in building aninnovation capability, but taken by themselves they are rarely sufﬁcient. Innovation has to be coded into the DNA of a company if there is to be large-scale, long-term impact. FROM THE BOOK CHANGE BY DESIGN BY TIM BROWN

Be open-minded –Learn from otherﬁrms and industries. HTTP://NOWANDNEXT.COM/PDF/TIMELINEWEB_VER2.PDF

“The future is already here – it’s just unevenly distributed.” William Gibson

While information technology is very much the enginedriving the knowledge age, the bulk of future innovationand ensuing economic growth is less likely to be drivenby the technologies and products coming from labsthan from their applications outside the laboratory.Activities that involve people, either as providers orconsumers of services, will be particularly signiﬁcant. Itwill not be enough to build social networks of techiesand entrepreneurs. The economic and cultural paletteneeds to be broader. Irving Wladawsky-Berger, Vice President Technical Strategy, IBM

THANK YOU!Want to know more? Get in contact:torsten.hensel@nouve-interplay.comCopyright © nouvéAll cognitions, documents and methods presented by nouvé in the foregoing concept will remain theagency‘s intellectual property. Utilisation of the presented ideas, texts, graphic designs, timetables,plannings, fotos, moving pictures and sound materials as well as other stored media associated withthis concept is restricted to the realisation in conjunction with nouvé.All realisation and utilsation is only allowed on the basis of a contract and its fulﬁlling with theoriginators / rights owners. Rights of use will only be granted on the basis of this contract that will alsoregulate their extent regarding time, space, content, intention and manner of use. All realisation andutilisation (in whole or parts) deviant from this regulations as well as a propagation to third parties are aviolation of copyright with all its legal consequences.

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Innovation and the Future

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Innovation and the Future — Presentation Transcript