From Dystopia to Plutopia

Framing the Future: Dystopian Thinking Derek Woodgate PREPARED FOR CENTEXWFS MARCH, 2010 From Dystopia to Plutopia

Fear of the future
Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI, 2007)
Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….
911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…

The fear factor
World population should stabilize at about 12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion people in 2100 from 6.5 billion today
Increasing need for water - billion cubics in 1995, 3300 B in in 2020
World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in 1970 to 25 T Kcal
Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years - gone in next 50 (?)
Lack of equity amongst social groups
Number of known terrorist organizations: 154
FEAR!

The fear factor
By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report)
Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute)
By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and drought
Climate-related disease risks of the various health outcomes assessed by WHO will more than double by 2030. Global warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison)

Heat related deaths in California could more than double by 2100
By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globally
The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class

-
FEAR!

Challenges & Concerns
The Transformation of Humankind
Resource Scarcity
Environment & Climate
Security and Rights
Conflicts & Terrorism
Disease and Pandemics
Natural disasters
Population Explosion
Economic meltdown
Framing the challenge

From Fear to Fulfillment The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man. The unknown has always threatened the ego with self doubt and produces restlessness, anxiety and insomnia. It is resolve your negativity and fulfill your dreams and desires? important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform it's energy into new power to augment your future? Michael Patrick Bovenes “ Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.” From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).

How to present Dystopias as a platform for fertile innovation
The future never stops
An opportunity to create a world-beating, headline grabbing first
Make external conditions fit your goals
Accelerates self-confidence / sense of purpose and extends success
Delivers a “think the unthinkable “mentality”
Helps dispel festering fears and despondency
Taking evasive and preemptive action drives attachment awareness and positive anticipation - Take back control

Creating Positive Anticipation
Positive anticipation starts with awareness and is then supplemented with a whole range of human dynamics, which give the knowledge purpose, social and cultural context, intention and a sense of time and place.
Certainly, consciousness plays a part, Different levels of the Self, Wilber’s Great Nest - The Four quadrants (I, we, it, its), Integral Psychology mapping, Howard Gardener’ streams and waves in his work on “multiple intelligences”.
Clients are frequently fearful of talking about dystopias even when approached as an opportunity builder

Understanding the value of a dystopia “ You must have chaos within you to create a dancing star.” - Frederic Nietzsche

Create a new vision and context for the dystopia
 Subvert assumptions
 Peel away the surface – experience the outcome –it is rarely an adventure
Revisit values and signifiers
Fracture, impact points and disruption
 Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids
 Change perspective and conceptual relevance
 Add events and potential wildcards

Framing dystopias and wildcards

“ One man’s magic is another man’s engineering.” - Robert Heinlein

Framing the challenge Fears and Challenges Transformation of Humankind Conflicts & Terrorism Natural disasters Disease and Pandemics Resource Scarcity Security and Rights Economic meltdown Population explosion Resource Scarcity Sustainability

Wide-angled lens - Sustainability

Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments

Creating future leverage points Example

Leveraging sustainability-related dystopias - - Richard Branson “ For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future.”

Leveraging the sustainability-related dystopias
Transportation and the environment, resource-management, changing lifestyles, urban-migration, etc …
Client: FIAT Group, (Global)
Agriculture, population growth, resource management, food and water shortages, new farmers, etc…
Client: New Holland (Global)
Urban planning, environment, population growth, resource management, architecture, waste, community, health, etc …
Client: Bright

Fiat Case Study

Italian Soul Simple Solutions Discovery Eco The Hero Inside Mastering Complexity Simple, ingenuous Greater power, less weight, persuasive safety attributes New entries, strategic partnerships, smart manufacturing New power train –simple refueling and services, even parking The car that brings out the Warrior against the odds Seamless Fluid lines, flow- part of me Flexible architecture that’s a mobile office, home and transporter Central to the future mobility system – new business models - From cradle to cradle –total recycling Keeps me driving my way Immersion A sense of culture and history The hub in an annotated environment The car as entertainment experience Car through bio-mimicry The authentic me – how I would like to be – the fully integrated me Belonging The resilience of following your own path Leverages the power of social networks Makes me part of a tribe – peer Safeguarding my kid’s future The “do the right thing” car Self gratification Cheeky and fun likeability Car takes the trauma out living The car that delights every day – gives me fun From “Big is beautiful” to “Small is cool” The car which pampers me The Next Redefining balance – playing with volumes The car bridges the innovation chasm Augmenting the human The urban car – compact, space & low consumption Honour, respect and self attainment Bigger me The car that connects me to flair and power Wellness- de-stress,, rejuvenation The car that knows me better than I know myself – cognitive feedback My personal contribution to society – The Altruist The car that makes me a better/ safer driver - Upskilling Exploration Freedom of spirit Expresses my progressiveness The pioneering car celebrating excellence Lessons from space and air The Magician – shape shifting, transform interiors Personalise A sense of style and romanticism Lifestyle transformer – enables me to do the inconceivable The car that anticipates my mood Contributing my way -the modular MPV Living the story and re writing personal narrative Sharing 21 st century female connectivity Access vs. ownership The network car – The Communicator Interior / exterior The car that joins with others to save the planet Peer collaborative design input

Futures knowledge base
MARKETPLACE FORCES
Fuel costs – travel reduction
Growth in HEV
Search for alternative fuels Growing potential with over 50s - high expectations/spend
Role of non-automotive companies - partnerships
Steep demand growth in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe – overall power of BRICs
Cheap cars from India and China
Stretching of luxury
New vehicle nomenclatures
New business models (sharing, personalization, battery leasing
Japan micro car market
Growing percentage of car is electronics
Growth in battery leasing
Smart coupes and cabriolets
NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Intelligent vehicles
Advanced GPS / mobile / in-car
New powertrains / HEV, Electric
Proactive - Collision avoidance
Advanced communications networks
RFIDs / Bio-metrics
Sensory networks
Alternative fuels – air, water, waste
Reactive / smart seats
Mood & health enhancing
Lighter weight vehicles
New interfaces – Voice interfaces
Interchangeable modules
Semi-autonomous agents info
OLEDs Lighting projection
Enhanced vision technologies
Cognitive monitoring & feedback
Proactive haptics
AI / robotics / Ambient intelligence
Nanotech – bio – fuel cells
Future batteries, electric / hybrid
New materials
Shape-shifting & personalized skins
Modular design and construction – rapid prototyping
DISRUPTORS AND UNCERTAINTIES Fuel prices reach $10 (Euro 10) per gallon Fuel cells arrive early – Toyota Mature economies crash and have very negative impact on BRICs $2500 car becomes highly successful Environmental legislation even tougher Detroit companies disappear Development of unexpected fuel: air, water, waste Launching of highly successful electric car
FUTURE CONSUMER
TRENDS
Seamlessness – digital connectivity
Modular living
Immersion (escapism & disconnection
Unplugged living
Life enrichment / experience collecting /playfulness and fantasy
Belonging and sharing
Transparency and integrity
Self gratification / being remarkable
In the know – The Next – Premium mindset
Bigger Me – self extension
Exploration
New partnerships

Futures knowledge base
QUANTIFIABLE
TRENDS
Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units.
Major global investments in fuel cell tech
of around 12% during 2008-2015.
China will add 33 Million automobiles during 2008-2010. Growth in touch screens – 6 million units
. Shipments of hard drives for in-car digital systems are expected to reach 16.6 million units by 2013, nearly five times the 3.5 million in 2006,
By 2020 they expect the proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop to 45% while diesel powered cars will increase to18% of the passenger car market. The hybrid penetration predicted to increase to 27%
CRITICAL SOCIAL INFLUENCES
Energy usage
Fuel costs
Environmental concerns – eco cities
Emissions legislation
Traffic congestion
Technology convergence
Economic policies, financing and costs
Overall global population growth
Importance of Boomers and echo-boomers
Smaller families
Shorter and fewer journeys
Redefinition of luxury – includes tech – more sophisticated consumers
People getting bigger and taller in developed countries
Changing meaning of celebrity
Globalization
EMERGING LIFESTYLE CHANGES
Consumers have increasing access to product and other info
Mobility and ubiquitous connectivity
Movement to cities / higher density i.e. smaller, efficient vehicles
Telecommuting, working longer or more active retirement
Expect on-demand, personalized and flexible / reconfigurable vehicles
50+ consumers will continue to want to lead the lifestyle they always had - less likely to change image / identity with aging
Multiple identities, changing archetypes, redefined lifestages
Desire for mass “design”
Open source design – peer colaboration
Desire for access to multiple vehicles
PANEL / EXPERT OUTPUT SUMMARY Cradle to cradle (recycling) and environmental issues New business models and players i.e. Virgin, Google, etc. peer design will be massive and peer recommendations will dictate Connectivity – car as a hub with a mesh network Electric – simple, less complex, reductionist, easy to navigate, park and use Modular, Lego-style with rentable add-ons (what are your needs for this weekend?) Smartness – know me, augment my capabilities, help me do the right thing. Protect me Well-being and health Advanced infotainment systems Adaptive systems, sensors, feedback Robot cars, AI, Nano input Urban migration

Knowledge clustering to create triggers

Trigger One: Eco/Urban – the community me Eco / Urban - the community me Hybrid path – drop spark ignitiion gasoline powered Major investments in fuel cell technologies – nano-bio advances Robots & Ai to adapt to driving styles and improve fuel efficiencies. Company transparency – brand credibility The advantage of hybrids over non- hybrid powertrains is significantly more pronounced in urban and "sensible" versus highway and "aggressive " driving patterns. Continuing increase in fuel prices Access / sharing Fuel efficient – downsized engines, battery life improvements Household waste & air driven vehicles Auto-pilot -reduce congestion Lighter weight vehicles Economics – few trips, esp. shopping – increase on-line Alignment with green thinking & considered as highly innovative Environmental legislation Fuel and environmental concerns New urbanist movement Cradle to cradle 95% of vehicle weight recyclable by 2015 Improved maneuverability, auto-pilot parking Bigger Me

Future triggers Make me a better driver, safer and more competent Smaller, more space, more power and advanced features Personalized Luxury, sensory enhancement, Experience collecting, Lower costs , enviro-friendly, , ease of getting around Seamless connectivity,, freedom & independence Feeling at my best in body, mind & soul Exciting design at affordable prices Eco / urban Smaller is bigger The status of luxury Healthy interiors Infotainment Upskilling Design within reach Major growth in hybrids and electric The hybrid penetration is predicted to increase to 27 % by 2020.. Cradle to Cradle Holistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health • • Environment Cost efficiencies Solar roofs, variable transmission or manual/automatic transmissions, batteries, light Nanotech design & Lighter weight, smaller engines - new materials *carbon fiber, titanium, graphene enhanced plastics Reconfigurable space Reconfigurable instrument panel offering 3+1 person seating in a comfortable space. This “rotational instrument panel” extends to provide a rotary table Shape shifting materials and architectures – elements that retract and expand Luxury by segments tech upgradable for “creatives”; classy comfort for “boomers Personalizing our vehicles – a palette for self-expression, life changing: The My Lounge interior concept defines a new way of consuming and selling cars. With the aspect of personalization as the overall theme, Mood monitoring, feedback & adaptive environments Context-aware technologies that can read the driver’s current state (i.e analyse pitch of voice, volume and intonation, to build a picture of driver emotion ) and change the sensory environment accordingly (i.e relax driver when under stress). Biofeedback – blood pressure, HR, breathing rhythm Transformation of data processing /feedback The emergence of real-time, speech recognition, 3D visualization, ambient displays, leveraging the supercomputing powers enabled by abundant computing. Wimax, MiFI ( Dedicated Short Range Seamless Communications). Mobile entertainment Remote vehicle diagnostics, compelling and less expensive telemetrics services, highly advanced automotive safety systems, and remote audio and video downloads into the vehicle. Haptic feedback Holistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health • • Environment • Extending human capacity: awareness, cognitive technologies (memory – mental) Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units. Using new technologies and materials to reduce costs and deliver exciting designs with flair Nanotech design (better fuel efficient, more durable and lighter - New materials – carbon fibres & composites & nanotech for nanocoatings & self-cleaning plastics, etc. Advanced surface coating applications that could enhance paint adhesion, appearance and durability; Wiperless windshields; Ultra-light synthetic polymers, plastic. and carbon fibre.

STAGE THREE – FUTUREMAPPING Oiling the triggers to create a concept platform

STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING Oiling the triggers - Concept engineering
A new tool kit
Mutate
Rethink
Spin
 Migrate
 Transform
Simulate
Displace
Fuse
Translate

Future Automotive Landscape European EV market estimated to roll out more than 250,000 vehicles E.U. fuel economy - equivalent of 43 miles per U.S. gallon Lithium-ion battery technology R&D increase to $5 billion (from $1 billion in 2008) OLED/ warning signage introduced in vehicles Interactive 3D screens delivering entertainment and information Electronics demand from Ultra Low Cost Car $10,000, is expected to reach $8.2 billion by 2015 25%of Japanese households powered by fuel cells Sweden aims to achieve a complete oil-free economy Proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop to 45 % of market China to overtake the US as the largest single vehicle market Nano-size electronics inside active contact lenses receives media and entertainment Fuel cell cars mass marketed India; 16-percent per year growth in light vehicle production Premium segment predicted to grow to 3 million in US and 3.5 million in Western Europe City Transport Cell (CTC) reconfigurable vehicles All-electric plug in vehicles a reality Consumers expect comprehensive and integrated transportation service and car relative to need Commercial operations of the SwissRapide Express - using Maglev technology US: cars require fuel-efficiency standard of 35.7 miles/gal (15km/litre) Up to 5% of conventional lights replaced by OLEDs (Western oucntries Home energy station enable drivers to fill up their cars at home 14% of vehicles fitted with branded premium sound features (double 2007 figure Market for display based entertainment systems, (OE and aftermarket) reaches $5.9B OE and aftermarket -advanced wireless technologies for equipped systems reaches $1.9B Market for multimedia and communications systems worth US$27B 18.2m parking assistance systems fitted in to newly-registered cars Data filtering and behavior agents 2018 2016 2017 2019 2015 2014 By 2015, experts predict nanomaterials will reach 70% usage in automotive applications (fuel efficiencies, lighter & durable)

STAGE THREE – FUTUREMAPPING Refining the concept platform

STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING Opportunity hacking
 White spaces
 Black holes
 Hidden worlds
 Missing colors
 Unusual perspectives
Reversed focus
Paradoxes & hybrids
Reapply the wildcards
To ‘Stretch’ the thinking paradigm
To ‘Expand’ the thinking paradigm
To ‘Crack’ the thinking paradigm

STAGE FOUR:FUTURESCAPING Re-contextualizing platforms
 Implicate not replicate
 Integrates disparate areas
 Higher order properties
The platform as an event
Dimensions not units
Human-centric

STAGE FOUR/FIVE – FUTUREMAPPING/FUTURETUNING Creating and evaluating the future scenarios
For confidentiality reasons, I cannot show the outputs or finally selected / developed preferred futures and action plan. We created 11 future concepts, which we worked on with 30 key personnel from FIAT for 2 days.
We selected 4 preferred futures, which were evaluated and taken through design, prototyping and market opportunity study.

Bright Green Austin is a network of sustainability activists Austin Energy's green power program is #1 in the nation in sale and taking the lead in developing a forward-thinking Plug-in Hybrid electric Vehicle (PHEV) strategy!
Reduced pollution
Resource consumption
Health (tackling obesity, exercise, zoning, brain)
Stress reduction (improved aesthetics, culture, greening)
Community and contribution
100 MW of solar facilities by 2020 30% of our electric supply from renewable generation sources by 2020.

The city as data
Sensor playgrounds - simulation
Leveraging real-time data to utilize emerging behaviors in space
Responsive, kinetic architecture –CO2 detection
Zero waste and improved resource utilization
Open source streets & annotated environments

My city, my body
Biological interactions and biomapping
Bio identities and communities
Cognitive feedback
Organic dwellings
Urban play - DIY

Community design
Resilient communities
Ability to withstand systemic shocks
Generate value and income
Smart grids, microgrids supporting local food production
City as a laboratory
The slow city movement (Cittaslow) – anti-standardization
Networked co-working
Future City and Sim City

Sustainable material thinking
Pollution resistant coatings
Nanomembranes – fresh water facility and virtual water
Printable solar cells
From carbon nano-tubes to polymer scaffolding
Media architecture
Interactive facades
Buildings as city lighting
Self-analyzing and healing

Beyond density building
Urban farming - vertical
Marine habitats
Spin farming
Permaculture – edible landscapes
Green roofs, hydroponic and container farming
Nanoarchitecture – smart greenhouses
Invisible buildings - metamaterials

Expanding our network / community
Masdar City - Dubai Zero waste, zero carbon
New Songdo City (West Seoul) – tech testbed
Nano City, India – Collaborative communities
Dongtan – Eco city
Fibercity, Tokyo – spatial fibers
Consulting for the future of New Orleans

A call to action
"It’s a failure of imagination to think that climate change is going to be an escape from jail – and it’s a failure in a couple of ways. Kim Stanley Robinson
1.Total systems failure
2. Limits to growth – failure of restraint and the likely cause of mini collapses.
The continuing need for sophisticated technology and alternative design are critical, but continue to be a burden.
 Create the desired future vs. Complexity theory
- Working beyond emergence, simulated patterns and visible connections – the rhizomatic approach looking for the rhythms in between the lines.
,

The power and persuasiveness of the arts Artists change minds primarily by introducing new ideas, skills, and practices. They make use of an array of diverse mental representations that infect our minds. Howard Gardner – Changing Minds

Plutopia – Experience the Future Bill McKinnon – Best selling author – sustainable economics Bruce Sterling – Sci Fi writer DJ Spooky – Author, Professor, Composer, Experimentalist Stanza – Interactive, generative, DNA-based artist Hipnautica – Technology-inspired music Green Grover – Multi-media artist (Green Visions) Natasha Vita More - Transhumanist Adam Zaretsky – Bio artist Chris Jordan – Social commentator / artist Sandy Stone – academic theorist, artist performer The Robot Group We only hire eco-friendly venues New trend: Temple (San Fran.), Surya (London) Greenhouse (New York), Watt (Rotterdam)

Plutopia 2010

“ Your thoughts create your future.” - Stephen Knapp. Philosopher

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From Dystopia to Plutopia

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