Forecasting Technological Change Session 5: Closing Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09

Sessions Introduction Trend Analysis Techniques Expert Opinion Techniques Integrative Techniques Closing 06/07/09

Introduction

Trend Analysis Techniques

Expert Opinion Techniques

Integrative Techniques

Closing

5. Closing The Future of Technology Forecasting Developing a Technology Forecast Process Internal Considerations External Considerations Guidelines Conclusions 06/07/09

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast

Process

Internal Considerations

External Considerations

Guidelines

Conclusions

5. Closing The Future of Technology Forecasting Developing a Technology Forecast Process Internal Considerations External Considerations Guidelines Conclusions 06/07/09

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast

Process

Internal Considerations

External Considerations

Guidelines

Conclusions

History Driven by military and national science policy needs (> 50 years old) 1940’s - 1970’s: Both quantitative and qualitative methods were developed and refined 1970’s - 1990’s: Decline in general acceptance of technology forecasting primarily due to changing social and institutional perceptions and needs 06/07/09

Driven by military and national science policy needs (> 50 years old)

1940’s - 1970’s: Both quantitative and qualitative methods were developed and refined

1970’s - 1990’s: Decline in general acceptance of technology forecasting primarily due to changing social and institutional perceptions and needs

History (cont.) 1990’s - 2000’s: Resurgence in new forms, integrated in new ways to meet specific needs Technology assessment National technology foresight Roadmapping Competitive technological intelligence 06/07/09

1990’s - 2000’s: Resurgence in new forms, integrated in new ways to meet specific needs

Technology assessment

National technology foresight

Roadmapping

Competitive technological intelligence

Importance of Forecasting Technological Change “ Our society is completely reliant on technology—to drive the economy, to maintain and improve standards of living, and to protect Earth against the pressures of population and urban living. Nations are irretrievably enmeshed in a global economy fueled by innovation and competition. Therefore technology is an increasingly important and challenging target for analyses to aid decision-makers.” 06/07/09 Source: Coates, et al

“ Our society is completely reliant on technology—to drive the economy, to maintain and improve standards of living, and to protect Earth against the pressures of population and urban living. Nations are irretrievably enmeshed in a global economy fueled by innovation and competition. Therefore technology is an increasingly important and challenging target for analyses to aid decision-makers.”

Future of Technology Foresight Technological innovation rather than invention Economic, not military or political competition More dependence on science Sociopolitical conditions favor re-emergence of both technology forecasting and technology assessment Technology forecasting toolkit is expanding 06/07/09 Source: Coates, et al

Technological innovation rather than invention

Economic, not military or political competition

More dependence on science

Sociopolitical conditions favor re-emergence of both technology forecasting and technology assessment

Technology forecasting toolkit is expanding

Future (cont.) Technology forecasting is becoming much more integrated with company functions and policy development Customers for and practitioners of technology forecasting are becoming more diverse 06/07/09

Technology forecasting is becoming much more integrated with company functions and policy development

Customers for and practitioners of technology forecasting are becoming more diverse

Technological Innovation Technological innovation has two components - invention and market exploitation It is the result of the confluence of a new technical idea with a market opportunity Traditional technology forecasting focused on technical idea Focus now is on both 06/07/09

Technological innovation has two components - invention and market exploitation

It is the result of the confluence of a new technical idea with a market opportunity

Traditional technology forecasting focused on technical idea

Focus now is on both

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Elaboration & improvement of scenarios Computerized process to generate conflict free scenarios Well suited for entrepreneurial business decisions Decision field assessment (60 to 150 influence factors) 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Elaboration & improvement of scenarios

Computerized process to generate conflict free scenarios

Well suited for entrepreneurial business decisions

Decision field assessment (60 to 150 influence factors)

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Laws of technological system evolution deduced from analysis of hundreds of patents Systematic exploration of technologies Identification of many paths of technological evolution Similar to morphological analysis 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Laws of technological system evolution deduced from analysis of hundreds of patents

Systematic exploration of technologies

Identification of many paths of technological evolution

Similar to morphological analysis

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Based on political science and systems analysis Incorporates multiple perspectives - technical, organizational, personal Each perspective uses distinct paradigms and provides insights not available with the others Synthesis provides insight 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Based on political science and systems analysis

Incorporates multiple perspectives - technical, organizational, personal

Each perspective uses distinct paradigms and provides insights not available with the others

Synthesis provides insight

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Based on co-evolution of technology & continually adaptive private/public organizational networks As technology evolves so do the organizational arrangements to use it & manage it 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Based on co-evolution of technology & continually adaptive private/public organizational networks

As technology evolves so do the organizational arrangements to use it & manage it

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Studies of the structure and evolution of science Challenge is to forecast when when specific areas of science can be exploited commercially 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Studies of the structure and evolution of science

Challenge is to forecast when when specific areas of science can be exploited commercially

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Many new tools (software) Bibliometrics Text mining Knowledge Discovery Has potential for identification of possible new innovations and advancement in science 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Many new tools (software)

Bibliometrics

Text mining

Knowledge Discovery

Has potential for identification of possible new innovations and advancement in science

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Application to analysis and simulation of complex sociotechnical systems Nonlinear adaptive systems Stable Oscillating stably Chaotic with predictable boundaries Diverging unstably 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Application to analysis and simulation of complex sociotechnical systems

Nonlinear adaptive systems

Stable

Oscillating stably

Chaotic with predictable boundaries

Diverging unstably

New Methods Scenario management TRIZ Multiple perspectives Co-evolution Scientometrics Bibliometric analysis & data mining Complexity science Crisis management Multidisciplinary work on decision making Inherent limitations to forecasting Regions of uncertainty seem to be growing Guidance through turbulence 06/07/09

Scenario management

TRIZ

Multiple perspectives

Co-evolution

Scientometrics

Bibliometric analysis & data mining

Complexity science

Crisis management

Multidisciplinary work on decision making

Inherent limitations to forecasting

Regions of uncertainty seem to be growing

Guidance through turbulence

Who Should Forecast? “ Everyone engaging in the technology delivery system ought to have a sense of what constitutes valid technology foresight and appreciate what it can do for them. Every scientist working toward eventual innovation, each design engineer, production manager, product developer, technology marketing professional, and so forth should get informed on where the related technologies are likely to be heading. This information will pay off in avoiding dead-end initiatives and deadly surprises, and seizing technological opportunities in a competitive marketplace.” 06/07/09 Source: Coates, et al

“ Everyone engaging in the technology delivery system ought to have a sense of what constitutes valid technology foresight and appreciate what it can do for them. Every scientist working toward eventual innovation, each design engineer, production manager, product developer, technology marketing professional, and so forth should get informed on where the related technologies are likely to be heading. This information will pay off in avoiding dead-end initiatives and deadly surprises, and seizing technological opportunities in a competitive marketplace.”

5. Closing The Future of Technology Forecasting Developing a Technology Forecast Process Internal Considerations External Considerations Guidelines Conclusions 06/07/09

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast

Process

Internal Considerations

External Considerations

Guidelines

Conclusions

TF Process 06/07/09 Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative

Types of Forecasts 06/07/09 What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures? Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective

Applications Projections of rates of technology substitution R&D management Value of new technology Identifications of opportunities & threats Identification of emerging technologies Competitive technological intelligence 06/07/09

Projections of rates of technology substitution

R&D management

Value of new technology

Identifications of opportunities & threats

Identification of emerging technologies

Competitive technological intelligence

Applications (cont.) Strategic market analysis Technology roadmapping Innovation management Technology assessment Technology foresight Science & technology policy 06/07/09

Strategic market analysis

Technology roadmapping

Innovation management

Technology assessment

Technology foresight

Science & technology policy

Output The technology being forecast (qualitative) The characteristics of the technology (quantitative) Timing of the forecast Probability of the forecast 06/07/09

The technology being forecast (qualitative)

The characteristics of the technology (quantitative)

Timing of the forecast

Probability of the forecast

Input Assumptions Insight Data Judgement 06/07/09

Assumptions

Insight

Data

Judgement

Internal Considerations What question needs to answered, or what decision needs to be made? What is the time frame? How much time? One time or continuous? Budget? Internal data or expertise? Expectations? Organizational culture? 06/07/09

What question needs to answered, or what decision needs to be made?

What is the time frame?

How much time?

One time or continuous?

Budget?

Internal data or expertise?

Expectations?

Organizational culture?

External Considerations Stage of technology development Availability of data Availability and accessibility of experts Similarity to other technology Complexity 06/07/09

Stage of technology development

Availability of data

Availability and accessibility of experts

Similarity to other technology

Complexity

A Market 06/07/09 Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural

Four Causes of Reality Material Formal Productive Final 06/07/09

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Four Causes of Reality Material Formal Productive Final Surveillance techniques Scanning Monitoring Tracking 06/07/09

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Surveillance techniques

Scanning

Monitoring

Tracking

Four Causes of Reality Material Formal Productive Final Trend analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis 06/07/09

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Trend analysis

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Four Causes of Reality Material Formal Productive Final Expert opinion techniques Interviews Surveys Groups 06/07/09

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Expert opinion techniques

Interviews

Surveys

Groups

Four Causes of Reality Material Formal Productive Final Integrative techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross impact analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map 06/07/09

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Integrative techniques

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross impact analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Guidelines Build the complete reality Provide actionable results Employ a mix of normative and projective techniques Balance rational and intuitive approaches Integrate the perspectives of personality types Be cognizant of boundaries and holes Create a hologram not a mosaic 06/07/09

Build the complete reality

Provide actionable results

Employ a mix of normative and projective techniques

Balance rational and intuitive approaches

Integrate the perspectives of personality types

Be cognizant of boundaries and holes

Create a hologram not a mosaic

Temperaments & Views of the Future 06/07/09 Source: Keirsey (www.keirsey.com) Past Present Future Guardians Fatalistic Stoic Pessimistic Rationals Solipsistic Pragmatic Skeptical Idealists Mystical Meaning Credulous Artisans Cynical Hedonistic Optimistic

5. Closing The Future of Technology Forecasting Developing a Technology Forecast Internal Considerations External Considerations Guidelines Conclusions 06/07/09

The Future of Technology Forecasting

Developing a Technology Forecast

Internal Considerations

External Considerations

Guidelines

Conclusions

Conclusions Technology is increasingly intertwined with societal, business and economic progress The ability to have technological foresight is valuable The methodologies of technology forecasting have a long history of success and failures 06/07/09

Technology is increasingly intertwined with societal, business and economic progress

The ability to have technological foresight is valuable

The methodologies of technology forecasting have a long history of success and failures

Conclusions (cont.) More integrative approaches, development of novel methods and increased awareness of the complexities of technology forecasting are leading to a resurgence and reintegration of technology forecasting into business and government 06/07/09

More integrative approaches, development of novel methods and increased awareness of the complexities of technology forecasting are leading to a resurgence and reintegration of technology forecasting into business and government

References Principles of Forecasting , J. Scott Armstrong, ed., The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2002 Innovate! , Paul Schumann, Donna Prestwood, Alvin Tong and John Vanston, McGraw-Hill, 1994 Forecasting and Management of Technology , Alan Porter, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini and Jerry Banks, Wiley Series in Engineering and Technology Management, 1991 A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods , Steven Millet & Edward Honton, Battelle Press, 1991 Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management, John Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc., 1987 Technological Forecasting for Decision Making , Joseph Martino, North-Holland, 1983 Practical Technology Forecasting , James Bright, Technology Futures, 1978 06/07/09

Principles of Forecasting , J. Scott Armstrong, ed., The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2002

Innovate! , Paul Schumann, Donna Prestwood, Alvin Tong and John Vanston, McGraw-Hill, 1994

Forecasting and Management of Technology , Alan Porter, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini and Jerry Banks, Wiley Series in Engineering and Technology Management, 1991

A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods , Steven Millet & Edward Honton, Battelle Press, 1991

Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management, John Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc., 1987

Technological Forecasting for Decision Making , Joseph Martino, North-Holland, 1983

Practical Technology Forecasting , James Bright, Technology Futures, 1978

Glocal Vantage, Inc. PO Box 161475 Austin, TX 78716 (512) 632-6586 [email_address] www.glocalvantage.com http://incollaboration.com Twitter: innovant2003 Glocal Vantage, Inc.

PO Box 161475

Austin, TX 78716

(512) 632-6586

[email_address]

www.glocalvantage.com

http://incollaboration.com

Twitter: innovant2003

Paul Schumann Futurist and innovation consultant Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems Web 2.0 tools & technologies Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes Broad perspectives on the future Services Strategic market research & technology forecasting Intelligence systems consulting Seminars, webinars & presentations Glocal Vantage, Inc.

Futurist and innovation consultant

Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems

Web 2.0 tools & technologies

Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes

Broad perspectives on the future

Services

Strategic market research & technology forecasting

Intelligence systems consulting

Seminars, webinars & presentations

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