Forecasting Technological Change (5)
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Part five of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers a summary of the techniques and a model for conducting a technology forecast.

Part five of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers a summary of the techniques and a model for conducting a technology forecast.

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Forecasting Technological Change (5) Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Forecasting Technological Change Session 5: Closing Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
  • 2. Sessions
    • Introduction
    • Trend Analysis Techniques
    • Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Integrative Techniques
    • Closing
    06/07/09
  • 3. 5. Closing
    • The Future of Technology Forecasting
    • Developing a Technology Forecast
      • Process
      • Internal Considerations
      • External Considerations
      • Guidelines
    • Conclusions
    06/07/09
  • 4. 5. Closing
    • The Future of Technology Forecasting
    • Developing a Technology Forecast
      • Process
      • Internal Considerations
      • External Considerations
      • Guidelines
    • Conclusions
    06/07/09
  • 5. History
    • Driven by military and national science policy needs (> 50 years old)
    • 1940’s - 1970’s: Both quantitative and qualitative methods were developed and refined
    • 1970’s - 1990’s: Decline in general acceptance of technology forecasting primarily due to changing social and institutional perceptions and needs
    06/07/09
  • 6. History (cont.)
    • 1990’s - 2000’s: Resurgence in new forms, integrated in new ways to meet specific needs
      • Technology assessment
      • National technology foresight
      • Roadmapping
      • Competitive technological intelligence
    06/07/09
  • 7. Importance of Forecasting Technological Change
    • “ Our society is completely reliant on technology—to drive the economy, to maintain and improve standards of living, and to protect Earth against the pressures of population and urban living. Nations are irretrievably enmeshed in a global economy fueled by innovation and competition. Therefore technology is an increasingly important and challenging target for analyses to aid decision-makers.”
    06/07/09 Source: Coates, et al
  • 8. Future of Technology Foresight
    • Technological innovation rather than invention
    • Economic, not military or political competition
    • More dependence on science
    • Sociopolitical conditions favor re-emergence of both technology forecasting and technology assessment
    • Technology forecasting toolkit is expanding
    06/07/09 Source: Coates, et al
  • 9. Future (cont.)
    • Technology forecasting is becoming much more integrated with company functions and policy development
    • Customers for and practitioners of technology forecasting are becoming more diverse
    06/07/09
  • 10. Technological Innovation
    • Technological innovation has two components - invention and market exploitation
      • It is the result of the confluence of a new technical idea with a market opportunity
    • Traditional technology forecasting focused on technical idea
    • Focus now is on both
    06/07/09
  • 11. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    06/07/09
  • 12. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Elaboration & improvement of scenarios
    • Computerized process to generate conflict free scenarios
    • Well suited for entrepreneurial business decisions
    • Decision field assessment (60 to 150 influence factors)
    06/07/09
  • 13. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Laws of technological system evolution deduced from analysis of hundreds of patents
    • Systematic exploration of technologies
    • Identification of many paths of technological evolution
    • Similar to morphological analysis
    06/07/09
  • 14. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Based on political science and systems analysis
    • Incorporates multiple perspectives - technical, organizational, personal
    • Each perspective uses distinct paradigms and provides insights not available with the others
    • Synthesis provides insight
    06/07/09
  • 15. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Based on co-evolution of technology & continually adaptive private/public organizational networks
    • As technology evolves so do the organizational arrangements to use it & manage it
    06/07/09
  • 16. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Studies of the structure and evolution of science
    • Challenge is to forecast when when specific areas of science can be exploited commercially
    06/07/09
  • 17. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Many new tools (software)
      • Bibliometrics
      • Text mining
      • Knowledge Discovery
    • Has potential for identification of possible new innovations and advancement in science
    06/07/09
  • 18. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Application to analysis and simulation of complex sociotechnical systems
    • Nonlinear adaptive systems
      • Stable
      • Oscillating stably
      • Chaotic with predictable boundaries
      • Diverging unstably
    06/07/09
  • 19. New Methods
    • Scenario management
    • TRIZ
    • Multiple perspectives
    • Co-evolution
    • Scientometrics
    • Bibliometric analysis & data mining
    • Complexity science
    • Crisis management
    • Multidisciplinary work on decision making
    • Inherent limitations to forecasting
    • Regions of uncertainty seem to be growing
    • Guidance through turbulence
    06/07/09
  • 20. Who Should Forecast?
    • “ Everyone engaging in the technology delivery system ought to have a sense of what constitutes valid technology foresight and appreciate what it can do for them. Every scientist working toward eventual innovation, each design engineer, production manager, product developer, technology marketing professional, and so forth should get informed on where the related technologies are likely to be heading. This information will pay off in avoiding dead-end initiatives and deadly surprises, and seizing technological opportunities in a competitive marketplace.”
    06/07/09 Source: Coates, et al
  • 21. 5. Closing
    • The Future of Technology Forecasting
    • Developing a Technology Forecast
      • Process
      • Internal Considerations
      • External Considerations
      • Guidelines
    • Conclusions
    06/07/09
  • 22. TF Process 06/07/09 Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
  • 23. Types of Forecasts 06/07/09 What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures? Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective
  • 24. Applications
    • Projections of rates of technology substitution
    • R&D management
    • Value of new technology
    • Identifications of opportunities & threats
    • Identification of emerging technologies
    • Competitive technological intelligence
    06/07/09
  • 25. Applications (cont.)
    • Strategic market analysis
    • Technology roadmapping
    • Innovation management
    • Technology assessment
    • Technology foresight
    • Science & technology policy
    06/07/09
  • 26. Output
    • The technology being forecast (qualitative)
    • The characteristics of the technology (quantitative)
    • Timing of the forecast
    • Probability of the forecast
    06/07/09
  • 27. Input
    • Assumptions
    • Insight
    • Data
    • Judgement
    06/07/09
  • 28. Internal Considerations
    • What question needs to answered, or what decision needs to be made?
    • What is the time frame?
    • How much time?
    • One time or continuous?
    • Budget?
    • Internal data or expertise?
    • Expectations?
    • Organizational culture?
    06/07/09
  • 29. External Considerations
    • Stage of technology development
    • Availability of data
    • Availability and accessibility of experts
    • Similarity to other technology
    • Complexity
    06/07/09
  • 30. A Market 06/07/09 Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
  • 31. Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    06/07/09
  • 32. Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Surveillance techniques
      • Scanning
      • Monitoring
      • Tracking
    06/07/09
  • 33. Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Trend analysis
      • Analogy
      • Precursor developments
      • Trend extrapolation
      • Limit curve
      • Substitution analysis
      • Multiple substitution analysis
    06/07/09
  • 34. Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Expert opinion techniques
      • Interviews
      • Surveys
      • Groups
    06/07/09
  • 35. Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Integrative techniques
      • Scenarios
      • SWOT
      • Opportunity/Threat analysis
      • Cross impact analysis
      • Innovation map
      • Mathematical models
      • Road Map
    06/07/09
  • 36. Guidelines
    • Build the complete reality
    • Provide actionable results
    • Employ a mix of normative and projective techniques
    • Balance rational and intuitive approaches
    • Integrate the perspectives of personality types
    • Be cognizant of boundaries and holes
    • Create a hologram not a mosaic
    06/07/09
  • 37. Temperaments & Views of the Future 06/07/09 Source: Keirsey (www.keirsey.com) Past Present Future Guardians Fatalistic Stoic Pessimistic Rationals Solipsistic Pragmatic Skeptical Idealists Mystical Meaning Credulous Artisans Cynical Hedonistic Optimistic
  • 38. 5. Closing
    • The Future of Technology Forecasting
    • Developing a Technology Forecast
      • Internal Considerations
      • External Considerations
      • Guidelines
    • Conclusions
    06/07/09
  • 39. Conclusions
    • Technology is increasingly intertwined with societal, business and economic progress
    • The ability to have technological foresight is valuable
    • The methodologies of technology forecasting have a long history of success and failures
    06/07/09
  • 40. Conclusions (cont.)
    • More integrative approaches, development of novel methods and increased awareness of the complexities of technology forecasting are leading to a resurgence and reintegration of technology forecasting into business and government
    06/07/09
  • 41. References
    • Principles of Forecasting , J. Scott Armstrong, ed., The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 2002
    • Innovate! , Paul Schumann, Donna Prestwood, Alvin Tong and John Vanston, McGraw-Hill, 1994
    • Forecasting and Management of Technology , Alan Porter, A. Thomas Roper, Thomas Mason, Frederick Rossini and Jerry Banks, Wiley Series in Engineering and Technology Management, 1991
    • A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods , Steven Millet & Edward Honton, Battelle Press, 1991
    • Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management, John Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc., 1987
    • Technological Forecasting for Decision Making , Joseph Martino, North-Holland, 1983
    • Practical Technology Forecasting , James Bright, Technology Futures, 1978
    06/07/09
  • 42. Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    • PO Box 161475
    • Austin, TX 78716
    • (512) 632-6586
    • [email_address]
    • www.glocalvantage.com
    • http://incollaboration.com
    • Twitter: innovant2003
    Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  • 43. Paul Schumann
    • Futurist and innovation consultant
    • Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems
    • Web 2.0 tools & technologies
    • Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes
    • Broad perspectives on the future
    • Services
      • Strategic market research & technology forecasting
      • Intelligence systems consulting
      • Seminars, webinars & presentations
    Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  • 44. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.