Forecasting Technological Change (3)
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Forecasting Technological Change (3)

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Part three of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers the expert opinion techniques.

Part three of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers the expert opinion techniques.

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Forecasting Technological Change (3) Forecasting Technological Change (3) Presentation Transcript

  • Forecasting Technological Change Session 3. Expert Opinion Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
  • Sessions
    • Introduction
    • Trend Analysis Techniques
    • Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Integrative Techniques
    • Closing
    06/07/09
  • Sessions
    • Introduction
    • Trend Analysis Techniques
    • Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Integrative Techniques
    • Closing
    06/07/09
  • 3. Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Interviews
    • Surveys
    • Groups
    06/07/09
  • Rationale
    • Some individuals know more about a technology or industry than others
    • Therefore their knowledge will be better
    • However, individual experts are subject to bias and scotomas
    • Therefore multiple experts will provide better knowledge of potential futures
    06/07/09
  • Expert Opinion Not Good for TF
    • Single expert
    • Committees
    • Task forces
    • Team/group meetings
    • Business meetings
    06/07/09
  • 3. Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Interviews
    • Surveys
    • Groups
    06/07/09
  • Interviews
    • Not market research/opinion poll
    • A conversation with a respected expert
    • Must approach on a professional level
    • Use diversity
    • Can be exploratory or reactionary
    • In person better than phone
    • Statistical significance not a goal
    06/07/09
  • Conversation 06/07/09 Values Information Same Different Same Different Converse Converse Argue Build Intimacy Creativity Temperament
  • Johari Window 06/07/09 Self Others Know Don’t Know Know Don’t Know
  • Conversation 06/07/09 Interviewer Expert Result
  • Temperaments 06/07/09 Source: Grant (www.glocalvantage.com/ StrategicPartners/Grant.html Objective/External Subjective/Internal Past Future SJ Traditionalist Stablizer Consolidator NF Catalyst Spokesperson Motivator SP Troubleshooter Negotiator Firefighter NT Visionary System Architect Integrator Present
  • Interviews 06/07/09 Highly Structured Unstructured Usefulness for TF
  • Interview Planning
    • Become knowledgeable
    • Define objectives
    • Select experts
      • Snowball
      • Diversity
    • Structure interview
    • Arrange interviews
    06/07/09
  • Interview Implementation
    • Establish professional rapport
    • Explain process
    • Allow expert to vocalize
    • Get into conversation
    • Keep referring back to structure & objectives
    • Take notes
    • Close with open ended question
    • Useful to have two people interviewing
    06/07/09
  • Interview Report
    • Transcribe notes
    • Adjust interviews as necessary
    • Complete all interviews
    • Analyze notes
    • Synthesize results
    06/07/09
  • Interviews Summary
    • Can provide insight into change process
    • Critically dependent upon:
      • Selection of experts
      • Interview questions
      • Interview methodology
      • Analysis & synthesis of results
    • Expensive
    06/07/09
  • 3. Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Interviews
    • Surveys
    • Groups
    06/07/09
  • Types of Surveys
    • Normal
    • Delphi
    06/07/09
  • Types of Surveys
    • Normal
    • Delphi
    06/07/09
  • Normal Survey
    • Qualitative or quantitative
    • For TF, quantitative is better
    • Typical questions
      • In what year will ____ be commercially available in the US?
      • Looking at the historical trend line (shown below), in what year will the next advance be made and what will be the amount of improvement?
      • Estimate probability and impact of an event, trend or scenario?
    • Lacks the dialog of an interview
    06/07/09
  • WFS Survey
    • 2004: Confessions to artificial intelligence priests
    • 2005: Designer babies
    • 2010: Video tattoos
    • 2012: Insect like robots used for crop pollination
    • 2015: ID cards replaced by biometric scanning
    • 2020: Nanorobots in toothpaste attack plaque
    • 2025: Thought recognition becomes everyday input means
    • 2030: First bionics Olympics
    • 2030: Emotion control chips used to control criminals
    • 2040: Moon base size of a small village is built
    06/07/09 Source: Editors, The Futurist
  • Global Futures Forum
    • Expert panel survey (160)
    • Which scenarios (key factors/driving forces) are most likely & impact they will have
    • Focus on business strategy
    06/07/09
  • Sample Page 06/07/09 Source: Global Futures Forum
  • Types of Surveys
    • Normal
    • Delphi
    • Developed in the early 1950’s by Rand Corporation for military applications
    • Features
      • Anonymity
      • Controlled feedback
      • Iteration
      • Statistic group response
    06/07/09
  • Delphi Survey Process 06/07/09 First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Expert Panelists
    • Unstructured
    • Forecast
      • Events
      • Trends
    Combine Prioritize Summarize Forecast time of event or trend Statistical summary of the forecasts Remain the same or change If outlier, must give reason Statistical summary with reasons
  • Conducting a Delphi
    • Select experts with regard to the topic to be forecast (15)
      • Inside vs. outside
      • Peers
      • Publications, awards or patents
    • Obtain agreement to serve on panel
    • Explain Delphi process completely
    • Make the questionnaire easy
    06/07/09
  • Conducting a Delphi (cont.)
    • Limit number of questions (<25)
    • Payment to panelists
    • Carefully word questions
      • Avoid compound events
      • Avoid ambiguous statement of events
      • Avoid too little or too much information in event statements
    06/07/09
  • Conducting a Delphi (cont.)
    • Examples
      • A commercial nuclear fusion plant for generating electricity using deuterium from sea water will begin operation in the year ___.
      • By the year ___, remote access computer terminals will be common in private homes.
      • By ___, the per capita electric power consumption of Africa will be 25% of the US per capita consumption.
    06/07/09
  • GWU Forecast of Emerging Technologies
    • Scanning & trend analysis
    • 85 prominent emerging technologies have been identified
    • Grouped into 12 fields
    • Longitudinal Delphi type survey
    • 50 panelists
    • Three, decade scenarios
    06/07/09 Source: www.gwforecast.gwu.edu
  • GW Forecast of Emerging Technologies (cont.) 06/07/09 Source: www.gwforecast.gwu.edu
  • Japanese & German Delphi
    • Japan has been conducting a Delphi every five years since 1971
    • Joint survey in 1993
    • 405 Japanese and 459 German experts
    • Looking for cultural differences
      • Little difference in realization
      • Some difference in importance
    06/07/09 Source: www.nistep.go.jp
  • Importance to S&T 06/07/09
  • Importance to Economy 06/07/09
  • Korean Delphi
    • Round 1
      • 25,000 experts
      • Forecast over next 20 years
      • 5,000 experts responded
      • >5 suggestions per expert
      • 9,000 topics selected and arranged into 15 areas
      • Note: about 75% of the ideas were different than the Japanese survey
    06/07/09 Source: Shin
  • Korean Delphi (cont.)
    • Round 2
      • Selection committees formed
      • 1,127 topics selected for second round
      • 5,000 experts
      • 1,600 returned surveys
      • Each expert responded to less than 50 questions of two areas on average
    06/07/09
  • Korean Delphi (cont.)
    • Round 3
      • 1,200 returned surveys
    • Purpose: Input into a national S&T plan
    • Implemented in 1994 & 1999
    06/07/09
  • 3. Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Interviews
    • Surveys
    • Groups
    06/07/09
  • Group Techniques
    • Nominal group conferencing
    • Impact analysis
    • Morphological analysis
    • Relevance trees
    06/07/09
  • Group Techniques
    • Nominal group conferencing
    • Impact analysis
    • Morphological analysis
    • Relevance trees
    06/07/09
  • Nominal Group Conference
    • Designed to overcome unproductive aspects of face-to-face meetings while stimulating creativity
    • Ideal for 7 to 9 people
    • Relatively quick and simple
    • Dependent on source and range of expertise
    • Generates more ideas than face-to-face and Delphi
    • Requires 3 to 4 hours
    06/07/09
  • Nominal Group Process 06/07/09 Pose question or problem Select experts Arrange meeting Explain purpose Explain process Pose problem or question Moderator leads discussion Each idea in turn Non-judgmental Each expert given chance to explain their idea Not justify In silence In rotation Each expert records an idea on a chart or wall board for all to see All ideas recorded Additional ideation encouraged In silence (20 minutes) Experts record all the ideas or solutions they can come up with Break Moderator explains rating system In silence Each expert rates each of the ideas Moderator summarizes results
  • TF Applications
    • Identify driving forces
    • Identify emerging technologies
    • Identify competing technologies
    • Identify potential futures
    06/07/09
  • Group Techniques
    • Nominal group conferencing
    • Impact analysis
    • Morphological analysis
    • Relevance trees
    06/07/09
  • Impact Analysis
    • Method to use experts to forecast future impacts of an existing or potential event or trend
    • 7 to 9 experts optimal
    • Brainstorming with structure
    • Quick and inexpensive
    • Requires 1 to 4 hours
    06/07/09
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    06/07/09
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Identify event or trend
    • Describe event or trend in a short paragraph
    • Use data if existing
    • Identify and invite experts
    • Arrange meeting
    06/07/09
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Explain process
    • Describe event or trend
    • Initiate brainstorming
    • Solicit and record all first order impacts suggested
    • Use “hub and spoke” way of recording
    06/07/09
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • If higher order impacts are suggested, note but don’t record
    • Get at least 5 - 7 impacts
    • If biased positive or negative, solicit impacts to balance
    06/07/09
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • When idea flow slows, take each of the first order impacts and solicit second order impacts
    • Continue process until third (fourth) order impacts are identified
    06/07/09
  • Hub & Spoke Model 06/07/09 First order Impacts Second Order Impacts Third Order Impacts Event or Trend
  • Example of Impact Analysis (partial) 06/07/09 Source: Vanston, TFI
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Although the technique is primarily qualitative, quantified results can be obtained
    • Convert “hub & spoke” into a table or spreadsheet
    • Have each expert individually score each impact (probability, significance, rank, time)
    06/07/09
  • Hub & Spoke Model 06/07/09 First order Impacts Second Order Impacts Third Order Impacts Event or Trend 0.5 1 0.3 0.15
  • Impact Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Always convert “hub & spoke” into table or linear flow chart
    • Summarize the quantification if you have obtained it
    06/07/09
  • Group Techniques
    • Nominal group conferencing
    • Impact analysis
    • Morphological analysis
    • Relevance trees
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis
    • A way to discover alternative paths to a potential future state or an existing state
      • Trends
      • Events
      • Future
      • Product
      • Technology
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis (cont.)
    • 7 to 9 experts
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quick and easy
    • 1 to 4 hours
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Implementation
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Identify future or present state
    • Describe future or present state in a short paragraph
    • Use data if existing
    • Identify and invite experts
    • Arrange meeting
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Implementation
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Describe the purpose and process
    • Explain the state to considered
    • As a group, break the state into as many sub-states as necessary
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Implementation
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • For each sub-state, brainstorm all the ways that sub-state could become a reality
    • As a group, explore possible combinations of sub-states
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Process 06/07/09 Potential Future State or Existing State Sub-states Potential Ways to Achieve Sub-state
  • Example 06/07/09 Source: Bright
  • Example 06/07/09 Source: Bright
  • Example 06/07/09 Source: Bright
  • Morphological Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Structured brainstorming
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Although the technique is primarily qualitative, quantified results can be obtained
    • Have each expert individually score each sub-state (probability, significance, rank, time)
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Process
    • Planning
    • Implementation
    • Quantification
    • Reporting
    • Don’t focus on process, but on the results
    • Communicate as scenarios
    • Utilize probabilities (if you have them)
    06/07/09
  • Morphological Analysis Summary
    • Best use
      • In conjunction with normative forecast to discover road map to get to the future
      • In conjunction with trend analysis techniques to show how progress could be made
      • To find competing technologies
    06/07/09
  • Group Techniques
    • Nominal group conferencing
    • Impact analysis
    • Morphological analysis
    • Relevance trees
    06/07/09
  • Relevance Trees
    • A way of logically deriving the relevance of alternative paths to a future
    • 7 to 9 people
    • Logical process
    • Quick & easy (2 to 4 hours)
    • Way to quantify the output of other TF processes
    06/07/09
  • Relevance Tree - Morphological Analysis 06/07/09
  • Expert Opinion
    • Interviews
    • Surveys
    • Groups
    06/07/09 Data, Insight Surveillance Material Change Trend Analysis Formal Application Productive Expert Opinion
  • Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    • PO Box 161475
    • Austin, TX 78716
    • (512) 632-6586
    • [email_address]
    • www.glocalvantage.com
    • http://incollaboration.com
    • Twitter: innovant2003
    Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  • Paul Schumann
    • Futurist and innovation consultant
    • Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems
    • Web 2.0 tools & technologies
    • Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes
    • Broad perspectives on the future
    • Services
      • Strategic market research & technology forecasting
      • Intelligence systems consulting
      • Seminars, webinars & presentations
    Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  • This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.