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Forecasting Technological Change (1)
 

Forecasting Technological Change (1)

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Part one of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers an introduction to technology forecasting.

Part one of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers an introduction to technology forecasting.

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Forecasting Technological Change (1) Forecasting Technological Change (1) Presentation Transcript

  • Forecasting Technological Change Session 1. Introduction & Surveillance Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
  • Sessions
    • Introduction
    • Trend Analysis Techniques
    • Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Integrative Techniques
    • Closing
    06/07/09
  • Sessions
    • Introduction
    • Trend Analysis Techniques
    • Expert Opinion Techniques
    • Integrative Techniques
    • Closing
    06/07/09
  • 1. Introduction
    • Description of Course
    • What is Technology?
    • Summary of Technology Forecasting
    • Applications of Technology Forecasting
    • Surveillance Techniques
    06/07/09
  • 1. Introduction
    • Description of Course
    • What is Technology?
    • Summary of Technology Forecasting
    • Applications of Technology Forecasting
    • Surveillance Techniques
    06/07/09
  • Description of Course
    • Four different types of technology forecasting methods
    • More than 16 different technology forecasting methods
    • Plan and implement a technology forecast
    • Competitive advantage
    • Increased innovation
    • Increased profitability
    • Creation of new markets
    • Cost reduction
    • Market expansion
    • Career development
    06/07/09
  • What is Technology?
    • “ Technology is systemized knowledge applied to alter, control or order elements of our physical or social environment” - Porter
    • “ Technology is the systematic application of organized knowledge to practical activities, especially productive ones.” - Vanston
    • “ Technology is the practical application of knowledge. It manifests itself in the form of methods, materials and systems.” - Prestwood & Schumann
    • Advances in technology or society always affect themselves and each other
    06/07/09
  • 1. Introduction
    • Description of Course
    • What is Technology?
    • Summary of Technology Forecasting
    • Applications of Technology Forecasting
    • Surveillance Techniques
    06/07/09
  • Technology Forecasting
    • “ Forecasting is anticipating, projecting or estimating some future event, series of events or conditions which is outside of the direct control of the organization.” - Waddell & Sohal
    • “ Technology forecasting is the determination of the possible evolution of the technical dimensions of a certain material, product, process or service.” - Martino
    • “ a quantified prediction of the timing and of the character of the degree of change in a technical parameter.” - Bright
    06/07/09
  • TF (cont.)
    • “ to provide the means whereby a systematic approach can be applied to obtain a better view of the future, one that is sufficiently sound to give an adequate foundation for decision making.” - Twiss
    • “ Technology forecasting is the process of using logical, reproducible methods to predict in quantifiable terms, the direction, character, rate, implications and impacts of technical advance.” - Vanston
    06/07/09
  • TF (cont.)
    • “ Technology forecasting is the process of discovering and communicating probable future technical capabilities in order to make better decisions today and prevent surprises tomorrow.” - Prestwood & Schumann
    06/07/09
  • Technology Forecasting
    • Focused on the future
    • Systematic, disciplined approach
    • Sufficiently sound to provide a foundation for decision making
    • Integrate intuition and rationality
    • Not for its own sake but to answer a question or make a decision
    • Must recognize the context
    06/07/09
  • TF (cont.)
    • Can be described and explained
    • Teachable
    • Provides a procedure that can be followed by others
    • Can be checked by others to see if mistakes have been made
    • If conditions change, forecast can be redone and plans altered
    06/07/09
  • Telecommunications 06/07/09 Source: Porter
  • Management
    • “ Regardless of what is being managed, management implies concern for the future. Even ignoring the future involves the implicit assumption that tomorrow will not differ in any important way from today. All managers must make decisions today that will affect the organization’s future.” - Porter
    06/07/09
  • Management (cont.)
    • When we make a technical decision today, it is essential to ensure that it will lead to a result which is appropriate to the circumstances, some time in the future.
    • As the future is not predestined, it is unknown.
    • The future will be shaped by today’s decisions.
    • Today’s decisions must be based on extensions of today’s knowledge and that involves uncertainty.
    06/07/09
  • Management (cont.)
    • Organizations must develop planning tools that can deal with uncertainty and convert unstructured data and insights into intelligence that can be used to make decisions.
    • Technology forecasting can reduce uncertainty and the possibility of financial loss resulting from a poor decision.
    06/07/09
  • TF Process 06/07/09 Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
  • Types of Forecasts 06/07/09 What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures? Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective
  • Rationale for TF
    • Technologies usually grow in an orderly manner over time and through practice
    • There is a consistency or pattern of technological change and abrupt deviations are not common
    • All innovations go through a process
    • Technology casts its shadow far ahead
    • Technological change is the response to various forces
    06/07/09
  • TF Applications
    • Projections of rates at which new technologies will replace older ones
    • Assistance in the management of R&D
    • Evaluation of the present value of new technology
    • Identification and evaluation of new products/processes that present opportunities or threats
    • Analysis of new technologies that may change the strategies or operations
    06/07/09
  • Technology Life Cycle 06/07/09 Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function S-Curve
  • Innovation Life Cycle
    • Stage 1. Scientific findings; determination of opportunity or need
    • Stage 2. Demonstration of laboratory feasibility
    • Stage 3. Prototype or field trial
    • Stage 4. Commercial introduction or operational use
    • Stage 5. Widespread adoption
    • Stage 6. Diffusion
    • Stage7. Social or economic impact
    06/07/09
  • Stages of Innovation 06/07/09 Source: Martino
  • Internet 06/07/09 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6 Stage 7
  • Internet History
    • 1985: First registered domain name
    • 1988: Internet Relay Chat (IRC)
    • 1990: First commercial ISP
    • 1990: Hypertext protocol
    • 1991: World Wide Web
    • 1992: Search tool
    • 1993: Browser
    • 1994: Banner ads
    • 2000: DotCom’s
    • 1958: Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA )
    • 1968: Packet switching network
    • 1969: First four nodes on ARPAnet
    • 1971: E-mail
    • 1978: Usenet established
    • 1983: Name server
    • 1984: Domain Name System (DNS)
    06/07/09
  • Observations
    • The full process of technological innovation takes a long time
    • Many factors influence the progress and direction of the technology
    • Government actions can impact technological innovation
    • Technological capabilities grow in an exponential manner
    06/07/09
  • Observations (cont.)
    • Rates of technological improvement do not equate with revenue/profit
    • Accelerated progress happens when technologies interact
    • Mode of marketing and financing usage is significant
    • Strong present practices and values slow acceptance
    06/07/09
  • Observations (cont.)
    • Innovation is delayed if substantial capital must be displaced
    • Exogenous events may alter progress significantly
    • Pull is stronger than push
    06/07/09
  • Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    06/07/09
  • Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Surveillance techniques
      • Scanning
      • Monitoring
      • Tracking
    06/07/09
  • Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Trend analysis
      • Analogy
      • Precursor developments
      • Trend extrapolation
      • Limit curve
      • Substitution analysis
      • Multiple substitution analysis
    06/07/09
  • Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Expert opinion techniques
      • Interviews
      • Surveys
      • Groups
    06/07/09
  • Four Causes of Reality
    • Material
    • Formal
    • Productive
    • Final
    • Integrative techniques
      • Scenarios
      • SWOT
      • Opportunity/Threat analysis
      • Cross Impact Analysis
      • Innovation map
      • Mathematical models
      • Road Map
    06/07/09
  • A Market 06/07/09 Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
  • 1. Introduction
    • Description of Course
    • What is Technology?
    • Summary of Technology Forecasting
    • Applications of Technology Forecasting
    • Surveillance Techniques
    06/07/09
  • Surveillance
    • Exploratory
    • Frame questions
    • Structure TF research
    • Increase awareness
    • Provide data for a TF
    • Identify emerging technologies, markets or players
    06/07/09
  • Surveillance Techniques
    • Scanning
    • Monitoring
    • Tracking
    06/07/09 Not moving, getting larger Not moving, getting smaller Moving away Moving tangentially Moving towards
  • Surveillance 06/07/09 Boundaries Model Information
  • From Noise to Wisdom 06/07/09 Creativity Diversity Methodology Conversation Facts History Dynamics/Structures Environment Wisdom Knowledge Data/Insight Noise
  • Surveillance
    • Articles - news, journals, magazines
    • Books
    • Reports
    • Internet
    • Bibliographic
    • Data/text mining
    • Patents
    06/07/09 Intelligence is a prime requirement for successful technology management. Alan Porter
  • Surveillance
    • Articles - news, journals, magazines
    • Books
    • Reports
    • Internet
    • Bibliographic
    • Data/text mining
    • Patents
    06/07/09
  • Scanning
    • One time
    • Continuous
    06/07/09
  • Scanning Examples
    • Nanotechnology/MEMS
    • Internet security
    06/07/09
  • Scanning Examples
    • Nanotechnology/MEMS
    • Internet security
    06/07/09
  • Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Source: Sandia 50  m
  • Scanning With a Search Engine 06/07/09 www.kartoo.com
  • Search Engine Example 06/07/09
  • Search Engine Example 06/07/09
  • Search Engine Example 06/07/09
  • Search Engine Example 06/07/09
  • The World of Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Genomics Semiconductors MEMS Electronic Systems Mechanical Systems Electrical Systems Material Systems Molecular Construction
  • MEMS
    • Micro Electro-mechanical Systems
      • Optical switching
      • Biomedics
      • Tire sensors
      • Cell phone
      • Consumer electronics
    • 19% to 65% CGR
    • Other Applications
      • Micro sensors
      • Micro positioning systems
      • Digital theater projectors
      • Home digital video
      • Data storage devices
      • Optical tuners, attenuators
      • Bio chip, medical products
      • Under skin drug dispensing
      • Other automotive
    06/07/09
  • MEMS (cont.) 06/07/09
  • MEMS (cont.)
    • Basically a Silicon technology
      • No universal building block
      • Scalability is different (similar to analog and mixed signal electronics)
      • Merging of mechanical and VLSI design
    • Enabling technology
    • Covers nearly every aspect of the economies of developed countries
    • Combination of sensors/actuators/communication
    • Microsystems capable of performing tasks not otherwise possible
    06/07/09
  • MEMS (cont.)
    • Pivotal application - tire pressure sensors
    • Moving from sensors to actuators with controlled microscopic movements
    • In US growing from 1.6 MEMS per person in 2002 to 5 in 2004
    • Three distinct processing technologies
      • Surface micromachining
      • Bulk micromachining
      • LIGA (lithographie - lithography, galvanoformung - electroplating, abformung - molding)
    06/07/09
  • MEMS (cont.)
    • MEMS industry has proven to be an enabling technology in several key economic sectors such as telecommunications and healthcare. The explosion in MEMS-related research expenditures has led to the creation of a new industry containing such infrastructure components as companies specializing in providing design software, design services, specialty fabrication equipment, and fabrication facilities. The range of applications for MEMS covers nearly every aspect of the economies of the developed countries. The most basic advantages derived from size reduction are less power consumption, lower cost, and increased reliability. However, the most significant benefit is the ability of MEMS devices to communicate easily with semiconductor chips. This attribute has given rise to the development of microsystems capable of performing tasks that would be otherwise impossible.
    06/07/09
  • MEMS (cont.)
    • Development of the MEMS piece of the wireless pie has required significant innovation at the engineering level, while the electronics that provide the wireless portion, by and large, are already well established. It is the pairing of the two that is opening the doors to markets and applications that have been waiting for such a breakthrough.
    • The field will change from today's sensor-based technology to an actuator technology, with very controlled microscopic movements.
    • The primary driver for the rapid expansion of MEMS remains the automotive industry, where manufacturers, especially automotive companies pushing to comply with new regulations for tire sensors, are deploying a wide range of MEMS products.
    • Sales of wireless MEMS sensors are forecast to reach about $700 million in 2006, largely based on the use of sensors in tire pressure monitoring systems. However, this application is not yet a done deal a pending government decision could either completely eliminate this segment beyond 2006, or provide for exponentially higher revenues.
    06/07/09
  • MEMS (cont.)
    • Roadmaps
      • NEXUS - 2000
      • MIG (MEMS Industry Group) - 2001
      • MANCEF (Micro and Nanotechnology Commercialization Education Foundation) - 2003
    06/07/09
  • MEMS Questions
    • Wide range of market size?
    • Wide range of market growth rates?
    • Definition of market?
    • Resolution of process issues?
    • Tracking of tire pressure sensor application? Other wireless applications?
    06/07/09
  • Scanning Examples
    • Nanotechnology/MEMS
    • Internet security
    06/07/09
  • Internet Security
    • The Internet is the fastest growing communication media of all time.
    • The number of Internet users is growing at 97% per year and will reach between 500 million and 800 million people in 2000.
    • The number of Web pages is growing at 122% per year and will reach 2 billion pages in 2000.
    • The number of E-mail accounts exceeded 450 million in 1999.
    06/07/09
  • Internet Security (cont.)
    • Wireless Internet devices and telecommuting increases the vulnerabilities of the system.
    • A significant portion of the growth of the Internet will take place outside of the US, increasing its vulnerability.
    • The primary concern is authenticity and integrity of messages and content.
    • As a result of all the growth taking place on the Internet, threat to the authenticity and integrity of the Internet is increasing.
    06/07/09
  • Internet Users
    • Internet users are growing at 97% per year & reached between 500M and 800M in 2000
    • Continued growth at this rate, the number of Internet users would equal the present world population in 2004
    • Definition of users?
    • 60% of the US adult population can now be reached by the Internet vs. 80% by telephone
    • The Internet is the fastest growing communication medium of all time
    • In the US there are more women online than men
    • Teenage girls are fastest growing age group
    • “ We are probably the most vulnerable country in the world because we are the most dependent on computers and the Internet” - Gen. David Baker (Ret.), the Washington Research Group
    06/07/09
  • Web Pages
    • The number of web pages on the Internet is growing at 122% per year
    • If this growth rate continues, the number of pages will reach 100 trillion in 2005
    • It is becoming more global
    • Web sites will have to provide pages in multiple languages with culturally significant content
    • “ The Internet is going to change fast during the next five years and change faster than it has during the last five years.” - Michael Erbschloe, Computer Economics
    • “ Data storage growth driven by the use of web paged applications, multimedia data and data warehousing implementations, is increasing the demand for better backup and recovery tools.” - Carolyn DiCenzo, Data Quest
    06/07/09
  • Internet Security Results
    • Scan (111 pages)
    • Market forecast
    • Business & patent strategy
    • Business plan
    06/07/09
  • Surveillance
    • Articles - news, journals, magazines
    • Books
    • Reports
    • Internet
    • Bibliographic
    • Data/text mining
    • Patents
    06/07/09
  • Data Analysis Methods
    • Bibliographic methods - counts of publications and other bibliographic items can help track scientific and technological developments
    • Content analysis - elicits patterns of term usage to infer emphasis
    • Data mining - seeks to extract useful information form any form of data
    06/07/09 Source: Alan Porter
  • Bibliometrics 06/07/09 Area of interest: Metric Fundamental R&D: Number of items in databases - Science Citation Index Applied R&D: Number of items in databases - Engineering Index Development: Number of items in databases - U.S. Patents Application: Number of items in databases - Newspaper Abstracts Growth rate: Daily Trends over time in number of items Maturity: Topics receiving attention Source: Roger Hough
  • Data Mining (Anthrax) 06/07/09 Source: Oklahoma State University Technology Forecasting & Data Mining Team http://techforecast.okstate.edu
  • Patent Analysis 06/07/09 Source: Roger Hough
  • Surveillance Summary
    • Surveillance has value at the individual, project/team, organizational and national level
    • An organized surveillance project is a very valuable contribution to future success
    • It is the foundation of a good TF program
    06/07/09
  • Surveillance
    • Scanning
    • Monitoring
    • Tracking
    06/07/09 Data, Insight Material Surveillance
  • Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    • PO Box 161475
    • Austin, TX 78716
    • (512) 632-6586
    • [email_address]
    • www.glocalvantage.com
    • http://incollaboration.com
    • Twitter: innovant2003
    Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  • Paul Schumann
    • Futurist and innovation consultant
    • Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems
    • Web 2.0 tools & technologies
    • Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes
    • Broad perspectives on the future
    • Services
      • Strategic market research & technology forecasting
      • Intelligence systems consulting
      • Seminars, webinars & presentations
    Glocal Vantage, Inc.
  • This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.