Creativity and the Future

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This presentation covers Concepts of the Future, The Four Futures, Creativity and the Future, From Noise to Wisdom, Techniques to Improve Foresight and Developing Foresight.

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  • Creativity and the Future

    1. 1. Creativity and the Future Paul Schumann Glocal Vantage Inc.
    2. 2. Topics <ul><li>Concepts of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>The Four Futures </li></ul><ul><li>Creativity and the Future </li></ul><ul><li>From Noise to Wisdom </li></ul><ul><li>Techniques to Improve Foresight </li></ul><ul><li>Developing Foresight </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    3. 3. Concepts of the Future <ul><li>Does the Past Matter? </li></ul><ul><li>The Uncertain Present </li></ul><ul><li>An Unknowable Future? </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    4. 4. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    5. 5. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    6. 6. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. <ul><li>First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860) </li></ul><ul><li>Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950) </li></ul><ul><li>Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020) </li></ul>
    7. 7. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. <ul><li>Nonproductive (25 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Counter Productive (25 years) </li></ul><ul><li>Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years) </li></ul>
    8. 8. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    9. 9. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Earthquakes
    10. 10. The Four Futures <ul><li>Linear </li></ul><ul><li>Cyclical </li></ul><ul><li>Chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Number of Transistors/IC
    11. 11. Types of Futuring Glocal Vantage Inc. Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures?
    12. 12. Information and Creativity Glocal Vantage Inc. Creativity Creativity Creativity Noise Data Knowledge Wisdom
    13. 13. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    14. 14. Techniques to Improve Foresight <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    15. 15. Surveillance <ul><li>Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Not moving, getting larger Not moving, getting smaller Moving away Moving tangentially Moving towards
    16. 16. Techniques to Improve Foresight <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Trend analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    17. 17. Trend Analysis <ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    18. 18. Trend Analysis <ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function
    19. 19. Trend Analysis <ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    20. 20. Trend Analysis <ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    21. 21. Trend Analysis <ul><li>Analogy </li></ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    22. 22. Techniques to Improve Foresight <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Expert opinion techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Surveys </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Groups </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    23. 23. Techniques to Improve Foresight <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    24. 24. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Quality of Life Controlled Growth Master Planned Education The New Small Town Best Bedroom Community in South Texas The Community of the 21st Century The City that Fulfills the American Dream
    25. 25. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    26. 26. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
    27. 27. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Product Process Procedure Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough
    28. 28. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    29. 29. Integrative Techniques <ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul><ul><li>Four Laws </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc. Enhance Reverse Retrieve Obsolesce
    30. 30. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    31. 31. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul><ul><li>Establishes the context for the present and potential leverage points for the future </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    32. 32. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul><ul><li>Using leverage points, identify influences and influencers to provide insight into future triggers </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    33. 33. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul><ul><li>Sculpting the triggers into a future platform </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    34. 34. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul><ul><li>Creating future scenarios from the selected platform </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    35. 35. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul><ul><li>Arriving at a preferred future </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    36. 36. Futures Lab <ul><li>Future Framing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Pulsing </li></ul><ul><li>Future Mapping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scaping </li></ul><ul><li>Future Tuning </li></ul><ul><li>Future Fabbing </li></ul><ul><li>Implementing the preferred scenario </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    37. 37. Developing Foresight Glocal Vantage Inc. Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
    38. 38. Information and Creativity Glocal Vantage Inc. Creativity Creativity Creativity Noise Data Knowledge Wisdom
    39. 39. Creativity and the Future <ul><li>Creativity is Required to: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Construct Positive, Ennobling Visions of the Future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Write Compelling Descriptions of the Knowable Future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sense the Shifts in Both Figure and Ground </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Isn’t the Care of the Future a High Moral Responsibility? </li></ul>Glocal Vantage Inc.
    40. 40. Glocal Vantage, Inc. <ul><li>PO Box 161475 </li></ul><ul><li>Austin, TX 78716 </li></ul><ul><li>(512) 632-6586 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>www.glocalvantage.com </li></ul><ul><li>http://incollaboration.com </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: innovant2003 </li></ul>Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    41. 41. Paul Schumann <ul><li>Futurist and innovation consultant </li></ul><ul><li>Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 tools & technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes </li></ul><ul><li>Broad perspectives on the future </li></ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic market research & technology forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence systems consulting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seminars, webinars & presentations </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    42. 42. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

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