Creativity and the Future Paul Schumann Glocal Vantage Inc.

Topics Concepts of the Future The Four Futures Creativity and the Future From Noise to Wisdom Techniques to Improve Foresight Developing Foresight Glocal Vantage Inc.

Concepts of the Future

The Four Futures

Creativity and the Future

From Noise to Wisdom

Techniques to Improve Foresight

Developing Foresight

Concepts of the Future Does the Past Matter? The Uncertain Present An Unknowable Future? Glocal Vantage Inc.

Does the Past Matter?

The Uncertain Present

An Unknowable Future?

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc.

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc.

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc. First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860) Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950) Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)

Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)

Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc. Nonproductive (25 years) Counter Productive (25 years) Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

Nonproductive (25 years)

Counter Productive (25 years)

Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc.

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc. Earthquakes

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

The Four Futures Linear Cyclical Chaotic Complex Glocal Vantage Inc. Number of Transistors/IC

Linear

Cyclical

Chaotic

Complex

Types of Futuring Glocal Vantage Inc. Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures?

Information and Creativity Glocal Vantage Inc. Creativity Creativity Creativity Noise Data Knowledge Wisdom

Four Causes of Reality Material Formal Productive Final Glocal Vantage Inc.

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Techniques to Improve Foresight Material Formal Productive Final Surveillance techniques Scanning Monitoring Tracking Glocal Vantage Inc.

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Surveillance techniques

Scanning

Monitoring

Tracking

Surveillance Scanning Monitoring Tracking Glocal Vantage Inc. Not moving, getting larger Not moving, getting smaller Moving away Moving tangentially Moving towards

Scanning

Monitoring

Tracking

Techniques to Improve Foresight Material Formal Productive Final Trend analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis Glocal Vantage Inc.

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Trend analysis

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Trend Analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis Glocal Vantage Inc.

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Trend Analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis Glocal Vantage Inc. Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Trend Analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis Glocal Vantage Inc.

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Trend Analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis Glocal Vantage Inc.

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Trend Analysis Analogy Precursor developments Trend extrapolation Limit curve Substitution analysis Multiple substitution analysis Glocal Vantage Inc.

Analogy

Precursor developments

Trend extrapolation

Limit curve

Substitution analysis

Multiple substitution analysis

Techniques to Improve Foresight Material Formal Productive Final Expert opinion techniques Interviews Surveys Groups Glocal Vantage Inc.

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Expert opinion techniques

Interviews

Surveys

Groups

Techniques to Improve Foresight Material Formal Productive Final Integrative techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc.

Material

Formal

Productive

Final

Integrative techniques

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Integrative Techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc. Quality of Life Controlled Growth Master Planned Education The New Small Town Best Bedroom Community in South Texas The Community of the 21st Century The City that Fulfills the American Dream

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Integrative Techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc.

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Integrative Techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc. Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Integrative Techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc. Product Process Procedure Incremental Distinctive Breakthrough

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Integrative Techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc.

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Integrative Techniques Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Glocal Vantage Inc. Enhance Reverse Retrieve Obsolesce

Scenarios

SWOT

Opportunity/Threat analysis

Cross Impact Analysis

Innovation map

Mathematical models

Road Map

Four Laws

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Establishes the context for the present and potential leverage points for the future Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Establishes the context for the present and potential leverage points for the future

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Using leverage points, identify influences and influencers to provide insight into future triggers Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Using leverage points, identify influences and influencers to provide insight into future triggers

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Sculpting the triggers into a future platform Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Sculpting the triggers into a future platform

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Creating future scenarios from the selected platform Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Creating future scenarios from the selected platform

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Arriving at a preferred future Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Arriving at a preferred future

Futures Lab Future Framing Future Pulsing Future Mapping Future Scaping Future Tuning Future Fabbing Implementing the preferred scenario Glocal Vantage Inc.

Future Framing

Future Pulsing

Future Mapping

Future Scaping

Future Tuning

Future Fabbing

Implementing the preferred scenario

Developing Foresight Glocal Vantage Inc. Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative

Information and Creativity Glocal Vantage Inc. Creativity Creativity Creativity Noise Data Knowledge Wisdom

Creativity and the Future Creativity is Required to: Construct Positive, Ennobling Visions of the Future Write Compelling Descriptions of the Knowable Future Sense the Shifts in Both Figure and Ground Isn’t the Care of the Future a High Moral Responsibility? Glocal Vantage Inc.

Creativity is Required to:

Construct Positive, Ennobling Visions of the Future

Write Compelling Descriptions of the Knowable Future

Sense the Shifts in Both Figure and Ground

Isn’t the Care of the Future a High Moral Responsibility?

Glocal Vantage, Inc. PO Box 161475 Austin, TX 78716 (512) 632-6586 [email_address] www.glocalvantage.com http://incollaboration.com Twitter: innovant2003 Glocal Vantage, Inc.

PO Box 161475

Austin, TX 78716

(512) 632-6586

[email_address]

www.glocalvantage.com

http://incollaboration.com

Twitter: innovant2003

Paul Schumann Futurist and innovation consultant Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems Web 2.0 tools & technologies Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes Broad perspectives on the future Services Strategic market research & technology forecasting Intelligence systems consulting Seminars, webinars & presentations Glocal Vantage, Inc.

Futurist and innovation consultant

Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems

Web 2.0 tools & technologies

Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes

Broad perspectives on the future

Services

Strategic market research & technology forecasting

Intelligence systems consulting

Seminars, webinars & presentations

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.