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What's After Cloud Computing?

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Presented by David Smith on 5-19 for InnoTech Dallas.

Presented by David Smith on 5-19 for InnoTech Dallas.

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  • 1. 5/26/2011 What Comes after the Cloud? David Smith CEO HBMG Inc. dsmith@HBMGINC.comCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission Agenda • High Level – What is Cloud Computing • What is Driving the Future of the Cloud • Trends for The Future • Actions for youCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 1
  • 2. 5/26/2011 Computing Evolution 40’s 70’s 80’s Now•Mobility explosion•Collaboration•High level of interconexion betweenusers•Web platform growing•Pressure over companies data centre.Copyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc Origin of the term “Cloud Computing” • “Comes from the early days of the Internet where we drew the network as a cloud… we didn’t care where the messages went… the here ent cloud hid it from us” – Kevin Marks, Google • First cloud around networking (TCP/IP abstraction) • Second cloud around documents (WWW data abstraction) • The emerging cloud abstracts infrastructure complexities of servers, applications, data, and heterogeneous platforms – (“muck” as Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos calls it)Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission 2
  • 3. 5/26/2011 Industry Trends Leading to Cloud Computing A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that has: • A user interface that makes the infrastructure underlying the service transparent to the user • Near-zero incremental management costs when additional IT resources are added 2010 • A service management platform 2000 Cloud Computing 1998 Software as a Service1990 • Next-Generation Utility Computing • Network-based Internet Grid Computing computing • Offering subscriptions to • Solving large computing applications problems with • Next-Generation resources as a parallel computing • Gained Data Centers metered service momentum in • Made mainstream • Introduced in late 2001 by Globus Alliance 1990s Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Even as clouds take hold, the IT landscape is changing rapidly… Technology is rapidly being commoditized Businesses are more willing and able to shop for IT services In-house IT infrastructure is increasingly seen as complex and rigid © Harvard Business Review Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 3
  • 4. 5/26/2011 Cloud Computing - a Disruptive New Paradigm “Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies operate.” A “cloud” is an IT service delivered to users that provides: • Simple user interface that automatically provisions IT 2015 resources • Capacity on demand with massive scalability • New application service delivery models Cloud Computing • Platform for next generation data centers • Development in the cloud, for the cloud Software as a Service 1990 Utility ComputingGrid Computing Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Other Definitions “Cloud computing is an emerging approach to shared infrastructure in which large pools of systems are g p y linked together to provide IT services.” – IBM press release on “Blue Cloud” “…a hosted infrastructure model that delivers abstracted IT resources over the Internet” – Thomas Weisel Partners LLC from “Into the Clouds: Leveraging Data Centers and the Road to Cloud Computing” “Cloud computing describes a systems architecture. Period. Period This particular architecture assumes nothing about the physical location, internal composition or ownership of its component parts.” – James Urquhart blog post Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 4
  • 5. 5/26/2011 Forrester Research “A pool of abstracted, highly scalable, and managed compute infrastructure capable of hosting end-customer applications and billed by consumption1” 1- “Is Cloud Computing Ready for The Enterprise?” Forrester Research, Inc. IT Trends enabling (and driven by) Cloud Computing Increased Parallelism  New Moore’s Law - 2X processors per chip generation  Parallel software industries emerging to address challenges  Redundant networks and storage increasing performance Increased Virtualization  Processing, Storage, Bandwidth, Delivery Commodity Components  X86 servers, consumer hard drives, ethernet  Open Source SW – Freedom to customize and adapt Increased Outsourcing of Core Elements  “By 2012, 80 percent of Fortune 1000 companies will pay for some cloud computing service, and 30 percent of them will pay for cloud computing infrastructure.” Gartner 10 5
  • 6. 5/26/2011 Cloud Computing Platform as a service (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Software as a service (SaaS)  Public Clouds  Application centric cloud platforms Application-centric  Public clouds reduce corporate IT jobs and spend. CIOs lead the charge. Private clouds become THE strategic decision for enterprise IT  Private Clouds  enterprise owned or leased  Hybrid cloud y  composition of two or more clouds  Community cloud  shared infrastructure for specific community Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Cloud Computing Delivery Models Flexible Delivery ModelsPublic … Private …•Access by Service provider  Access b  Ser ice pro ider  Pi t l   d  d  •Privately owned and  owned and managed. Cloud Services  managed.•subscription. •Access limited to client •Delivers select set of  and its partner network. standardized business process,  Cloud Computing  •Drives efficiency,  application and/or  Model standardization and best  infrastructure services on a  practices while retaining  flexible price per use basis. greater customization  Hybrid … and control •Access to client, partner  network, and third party  resources .…Standardization, capital  .… Customization, efficiency,  preservation, flexibility and  availability, resiliency, security  time to  deploy   and privacy  ORGANIZATION CULTURE GOVERNANCE ...service sourcing and service value 12 This presentation may not be distributed without permission 6
  • 7. 5/26/2011 From http://geekandpoke.typepad.com Agenda • High Level – What is Cloud Computing C ti • What is Driving the Future of the Cloud • Trends for The Future • Actions for youCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 7
  • 8. 5/26/2011 What led to actual phaseTerms related to CloudComputing Saas Iaas Paas WidgetVirtualization mash upSOAREST Grid computing: Hw resources sharing h i Web 2.0 Internet service BusCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc A Crisis of Complexity. The Need for Progress is Clear. 1.5x Explosion of information driving 54% growth in storage shipments every year. 70¢ per $1 70% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities. 85% idle In distributed computing environments, up to 85% of computing capacity sits idle. 70%+ Never recover Of business never recover from a majorCopyright, 2010 © data disaster.HBMG, Inc 8
  • 9. 5/26/2011 Annual Operating Costs Are Out Of Control PhysicalSpending Server Installed Worldwide IT Spending on Servers, Power, Cooling Base (Millions) US$(B) and Management/Administration$250 50 Power and Cooling Costs 45 4 Server Mgt and Admin Costs$200 New Server Spending 40 35$150 30 25$100 20 15 $50 10 5 $0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 IDC Users Wait Too Long For New Servers Requester Requester Acquire Install & Install & Submit Deploy HW & Config. Config Request Server SW HW SW Three to six months to provision a new server! Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 9
  • 10. 5/26/2011 Growth of DataCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc Without cloud computing With cloud computing  Virtualized resources  Location  Automated service independent management  Rapid  Standardized scalability services  Self-service  Security  Appliances • Software • Hardware• Software • Storage• Hardware • Networking• Storage• Networking • Software • Storage • Hardware • NetworkingCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission 10
  • 11. 5/26/2011 Private Clouds 10 Through 2012, IT organizations will invest more on private cloud services than on external cloud providers.Reasons for Private Cloud Reasons for Public CloudLow barrier to entry Scale on demandElastic and scalable Increased agility and flexibilityLower cost and pay per use Pay P per useIncreased agility (to Higher compute capacities customers) ElasticityEase of sourcing migrations Time to marketMany cloud benefits — reduced risks Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission Agenda • High Level – What is Cloud Computing C ti • What is Driving the Future of the Cloud • Trends for The Future • Actions for you Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 11
  • 12. 5/26/2011 Multiple Descriptions of the “Cloud”Copyright, 2010 ©HBMG, IncCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 12
  • 13. 5/26/2011 IT Trends Ubiquitous Cloud Virtualization Grid Internet Appliances WEB Client Server Network Punch Mainframe/ Card Midrange 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020HBMG Inc. Copyright2009 Growth at the Edge of the Network 4,000 3,500 • Mobile • Device to Device Petabytes/Day Global 3,000 • Sensors • Entertainment 2,500 • Smart Home • Distributed 2,000 Industrial • Autos/Trucks 1,500 • Smart Toys Converged 1,000 Content 500 Traditional Computation 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 13
  • 14. 5/26/2011 The Growth Of Complexity Higher Technical Complexity DOD weapon Embedded system automotive Telecom switch National Air application Commercial Traffic Control compiler System Lower HigherManagement ManagementComplexity Large-scale simulation Complexity Small scientific Enterprise simulation Enterprise information application systems DOD management information system Business spreadsheet Lower Technical Complexity Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc … breakthroughs like these are enabled by Innovation. Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 14
  • 15. 5/26/2011 Massive Resources are VirtualizedCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission 110% Growth Last Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 Mobile Web Usage 15
  • 16. 5/26/2011 Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Ubiquitous Computing Laptops outsell desktops already Handheld PCs are gaining market share g g Appliances become smart – Microprocessors in TVs, VCRs, refrigerators, stoves, etc. • As the profit margin on basic hardware gets squeezed out, smarts are the next competitive p area Even your pet…Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 16
  • 17. 5/26/2011 Clouds and Crowds Interactive Cloud Analytic Cloud People Cloud Data Transactional … + Sensors … + Web 2.0 cqu s t o Acquisition syste s systems (physical software) (p ys ca & so t a e) Data entry Computation Get and Put Map Reduce … + Collaborative Parallel DBMS Structures (e.g., Stream Processing Mechanical Turk, Intelligence Markets) Data Model Records Numbers, Media … + Text, Media, Natural Language Response Seconds Hours/Days … +Continuous Time The Future Cloud will be a Hybrid of These. Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Consuming Cloud-Computing Services Application Infra Appl, Information, orSystem Infrastructure Services Bus Process ServicesServices Client Client Client A A A A A A P P P P P P I I I I I I • Rapid hardware p • Rapid development, p p • Rapid application p pp provisioning & delegated deployment & change deployment & change hardware management • Greater vendor lock-in • Maintenance & Security • Developer responsible for cloud optimization Service Consumer Responsibility Copyright, 2010 © Service Provider Responsibility HBMG, Inc 17
  • 18. 5/26/2011 Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Virtualization for Client ComputingHosted Virtual DesktopsArchitectural equivalent of the blade PCFull "thick-client" image, Application Application Application thin-client delivery model PC OS PC OS PC OS VMM Server HardwarePortable Personalities Windows code• Carry the bubble, not the Application settings data hardware Containers temp files p• Portable media, stored on DLLs the network• Bubbles of various sizes: Target Windows some with OS, some without Machine 18
  • 19. 5/26/2011 Continuous Improvement of Input DevicesCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, IncCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 19
  • 20. 5/26/2011 Ubiquitous ConnectivityCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission For the rest of the world, this is the InternetCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 20
  • 21. 5/26/2011 AMP: Algorithms, Machines, People Adaptive/Active Machine Learningg and Analytics Massive and Diverse Data CrowdSourcing Cloud Computing Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Characteristics of Agents Agents dynamically adapt Agents coordinate to and learn about and negotiate to achieve their environment common goals SocialIntelligent Adaptive Cooperative Personality Information Agents Agents Autonomous Mobile Interoperate Agents are goal directed Agents interoperate Agents move and act on their with humans, other, to where they own performing legacy systems, and are needed tasks on your behalf information sources Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc 21
  • 22. 5/26/2011 Autonomic Networks Self-configuring : Self-healing: Adapt automatically to Discover, diagnose, the dynamically and react to changing environments disruptions from of link and node Self- Self- Self- Self- catastrophes and failures. attacks. Configuring Healing Self-optimizing: Self- Self- Self- Self- Self-protecting: Monitor and tune Anticipate, detect, resources automatically Optimizing Protecting identify, and protect during an attack to against attacks from minimize its attack anywhere (safety.) (safety ) during and in the aftermath.Copyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc Autonomic System Computing Complex computing systems that manage themselves Decreased need for human administrators to perform lower level tasks Autonomic properties: Purposeful, Automatic, Adaptive, Aware 4 properties: self-healing, self-configuration, self-optimization, self optimization and self-protection self protection IT labor costs are 18 times that of equipment costs. The number of computers is growing at 38% each year.Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission 22
  • 23. 5/26/2011BIO IMPACT WHEEL Query by Storage Content/ Computer Sensing Audio Type Device Signals RF Conservation Visual EM Optical Acquisition Multi-Data Processes Prioritization DNA Pressure Architecture Emerging Chemical Transmission Links Energy/ Power S.O.C. Rules Interaction Optical Sensor Biological Awareness Computing Biological Rejuvenation Types Storage Switches Effectors Devices Amoeba Sensors Natural Selection Neural Input/ Networks Network OutputNetwork Many Tumor BIO Architectures ManyRecovery Network INSPIRED Solutions Management Load and Self Preservation Socially Processing Plants Network Bio Security Bio Groups Character- Reproductive Chips ization Rights Solution Viral Friend or Foe Non- Traditional Bio- Cognition Inter- Signal Adaptive Links Optical connections Ethics Communication Extension/ Size Natural Replacement Selection Biologically of Moore’s Growth Inspired Law Values Mobility Electrical Brain Chemical S.O.C. Function Dreaming Neuro Evolution Adaptation Transmitters Recognition Risk Experience Improvement Patterns Uncertainty Visual Music This presentation may not be distributed without permission SAAS Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I i , nc. 23
  • 24. 5/26/2011 Major Trends for Software Process • System of systems is becoming more complex • Increasing software criticality and need for dependability • Increasing emphasis on end users – both inside and outside the enterprise • Decreasing value of IT • Geography doesn’t matter • The fabric of software and computing is evolving • Continuous integration - continuous delivery – group mind • Increasing software autonomy • Combination of biology and computing Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc Change, Uncertainty, and Complexity Economic & Financial Virtual Worlds Technology Acceleration Cyber WarfareRussia - China Intangible K-12 Science Capital & Math Crisis PandemicTerrorism Global Talent Explosion Offshore Competition English as 2nd3 Billion New DemographicsCapitalists Economic Unions Flat Wages Regional Economic End of Moore’s Law Copyright, 2010 © Dislocation HBMG, Inc 24
  • 25. 5/26/2011 Agenda • High Level – What is Cloud Computing C ti • What is Driving the Future of the Cloud • Trends for The Future • Actions for youCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc The “Cloud Pyramid”Build upon a foundationLayers equate structureBuilding blocks: Infrastructure, Platforms, ApplicationsBreadth vs. NicheCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 25
  • 26. 5/26/2011 The “Cloud Pyramid” Inversed1000’s of Cloud Applications currentlyHandful of Cloud PlatformsElite group of Cloud Infrastructure providers # of Marketplace providersCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc Ensembles An ensemble is a pool of like systems that are managed as a single system – Scale from a few to many thousands of virtual or physical nodes – Reduce management complexity with integrated virtualization, management, and security software – Allow workload optimization for maximum performance and efficiencyCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 26
  • 27. 5/26/2011Copyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I i , nc. Where do we go from here? Ideas to keep us out of the rain 54 20090909_Vit i i rualzatonAndC l oud 27
  • 28. 5/26/2011 Cloud Computing Universal access Scalable Services New Application Service Models Feature Description Universal access Cloud Computing’s services are ubiquitous – they can be accessed from workstations and other devices, such as cell phones Scalable Services Scale up and scale out. Business Driven Resourcing, Highly scalable, with infrastructure managing the scaling, not applications. Cloud computing allows for elasticity, where capital and operational expenses for resources are only incurred when p p y they are needed New Application Service Supports parallel and persistent services ModelsCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission Next Generation Cloud Computing (e.g. “Blue Cloud”) – The “network becomes the computer” – Dumb devices ?????? Pervasive Computing – Monitoring and tracking almost anything – The Internet is Free Continuous Services The Cloud + Pervasive Computing – Smart buildings – Sensor nets – “Invisible computing” or “ubiquitous computing” – Semantic Interoperability – Ad hoc networkingCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission 28
  • 29. 5/26/2011 Dramatic Technological Evolution Ubiquitous Internet: 100+ million hosts – Collaboration & resource sharing the norm Ultra-high-speed networks: 10+ Gb/s – Global optical networks Enormous quantities of data: Petabytes – For an increasing number of communities, gating step is not collection but analysis Huge quantities of computing: 100+ Top/s – Ubiquitous computing via clusters Moore’s law everywhere: 1000x/decade – Instruments, detectors, sensors, scanners Copyright, 2010 © HBMG,H BM C opyrght 2009 © Inc i , G ,I nc. Action Plan Today – Focus on virtualization and green IT for immediate cost and flexibility benefits. – Look at storage virtualization, de-duplication and thin provisioning. – Evaluate Web social software to transform customer/employee interactions. – Cloud Appliances will drive value for the company The Next 18 Months – Exploit mashups and cloud-based services to address immediate user needs needs. – Begin a plan to use the devices – Begin to track weak signals and subtle business patterns — from everywhere.Copyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission 29
  • 30. 5/26/2011 Action Plan Longer Term –Public and private cloud services together with new servers and specialized systems promise to minimize costs and maximize agility. Devices will drive most improvements –Look for opportunities emerging from cloud computing, social networking and new approaches to infrastructure. –The Age of Bio will come into p y InfoTech, g play. , NanoTech and BioTech are building synergies off of each other. –Universal computation, connectivity and digital interoperability is the new standardCopyright, 2010 © HBMG, Inc This presentation may not be distributed without permission Embeddedness The Invisible ComputerEmbeddednessDigital convergence technologies will “form the invisible technical infrastructure for human actionanalogous to the visible infrastructure provided by buildings and cities.”Embeddedness is driven by cost-effective computing, Moore’s Law, miniaturization, ubiquitous communication, and advanced materials and sensing devices. t i l d i d iIn 2005, 99% of computing devices sold are embedded in products and are not apparent to the product’s user. Copyright, 2008 © HBMG, Inc. 30
  • 31. 5/26/2011 In Parting: Be Paranoid “Sooner or later, somethingfundamental in your business world will change.”  Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel “Only the Paranoid Survive”Copyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I i , nc. Thank You. David Smith CEO 512.459.2667 512 459 2667 dsmith@hbmginc.com HBMG Inc. 11211 Taylor Draper Lane Suite 200 Austin, Austin TX 78759 http://www.hbmginc.comCopyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc 31
  • 32. 5/26/2011 In Parting: Be Paranoid “Sooner or later, somethingfundamental in your business world will change.”  Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel “Only the Paranoid Survive”Copyright, 2010 ©HBMG, Inc C opyrght 2009 © H BM G ,I i , nc. 32