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John Gantz - The World at a Watershed

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John Gantz's keynote @Innovation Forum 2009, Milan

John Gantz's keynote @Innovation Forum 2009, Milan

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John Gantz - The World at a Watershed John Gantz - The World at a Watershed Presentation Transcript

  • The World At A Watershed: The Macroeconomic, Demographics, and Technology Landscape of the Next Decade IDC Innovation Forum 2009, Milan John Gantz Chief Research Officer March 23, 2009
  • Agenda The Economic Implosion ICT Budget Fallout The Economy as Catalyst
  • An Economic Shock Source: IMF, Consensus Economics, Inc., EIU Worldwide GDP Forecast Interbank Lending Cranes in Dubai
  • 50 Years of Slowdowns GDP vs IT Growth Source: EIU, OECD
  • 50 Years of Slowdowns GDP vs IT Growth Source: EIU, OECD, IDC Historical Data
  • Impact on the CIO
  • ICT Budget Fallout
  • Where We Stand Source: IDC Q2, Q3 & Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Books WW IT Spending
  • The New ICT Geography 2009-2011 Aggregate Net New ICT* Spending ($B) Source: IDC Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book; *IT plus data services Emerging = 56% new opportunity, 28% of 2009 $
  • Opportunities Hot Public Sector SMB Enterprise Social Media Security Management Business Analytics IT Outsourcing & BPO SaaS Wi-Max Search & Discovery Storage Replication Cold Commodity Hardware Project Based Consulting Mobile Voice IT Training Finance & Accounting ERP Sales Force Automation Manufacturing SW DSL Large Enterprise IT Gantz Watch Virtualization Mgt SW Real Time Analytics IT Driven Sustainability IP Surveillance Location Based Services Smart Grid Video Search Compliance Reputation Mgt SW Machine-to-Machine
  • An Economic Unknown
    • $1-3 Trillion For
    • Bank Bailouts
    • Tax Cuts
    • Smart Grid
    • SMB Incentives
    • Health Care
    • Infrastructure
    • Broadband
    • Auto Manufacturers
    • Green Building
  • The Potential Impact of Stimulus Plans WW ICT Spending Growth Source: Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book, IDC Estimates WW ICT Spending (B) $250 Billion over 4 Years
  • The Economy as Catalyst
  • The Demographic Catalyst Percent Penetration in Emerging Markets, 2009 23% 44% 60% 67% 72% 84%
  • The Technology Catalyst WW Growth from 2008-2012 1.1X 1.9X 3.0X 3.6X 5.1X 8.4X Efficiency Resource Sharing Complexity Economy of Scale Off Premises
  • Artifacts of Tomorrow
  • Innovation During Recession
  • Innovation During Recession Percent of Fortune 500 Companies Incorporated During Recession Source: Gary Beach, CIO
  • Five Key Steps
    • Manage working capital aggressively – via inventory, AR, etc.
    • Increase sales and marketing expenses
    • Use the downturn to make acquisitions
    • Divest non-core assets early
    • Improve debt to equity
  • Essential Guidance
    • The leading edge will pull further ahead
    • Business transformation will take place – voluntarily or not
    • There will be no status quo for ICT management
    • Suppliers, government, and end users will need to work in concert