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    Wind presentation cer adelaide richard hobbs 2 Wind presentation cer adelaide richard hobbs 2 Presentation Transcript

    • Growth and Prospects of Wind Power under the Renewable Energy Target Richard Hobbs Senior Officer of Clean Energy Markets Renewables and Carbon Farming Wind Conference 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 1
    • 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 2
    • Supporting Australia’s transition to a low carbon economy through an informed and efficient market for carbon and investment in renewable energy. www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
    • The Renewable Energy Target aims to: • encourage additional generation of electricity from renewable and ecologically sustainable sources, and • reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the electricity sector. 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 4
    • Large-scale generation certificate (LGC) market 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 5
    • All eligible renewable energy fuel sources 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Hydro Wave Tide Ocean Wind Solar Geothermal-aquifer Hot dry rock Energy crops Wood waste Agricultural waste Waste from processing of agricultural products 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. Food waste Food processing waste Bagasse Black liquor Biomass-based components of municipal solid waste 18. Landfill gas 19. Sewage gas and biomass-based components of sewage 20. Waste Coal Mine Gas 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 6
    • Wind power stations in Australia Source: Clean Energy Council A total of 77 accredited wind power stations (as at 28 October 2013) 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 7
    • Australia’s electricity generation by fuel source, 1991 2012 Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 8
    • LGCs created from all fuel sources (as at 12 November 2013) 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 9
    • Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity Under the LRET Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 10
    • Total LGCs registered in the LRET (as at 8 November 2013) Hydro 15,636,779 21% Biomass 17,329,365 24% Other 1,000,648 1% Wind 39,349,807 54% 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 11
    • Annual investment in Wind Production (as at 8 November 2013) 1400 1200 Investment ( $ Million ) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Accreditation Year 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 12
    • What are other countries doing in Wind Energy Total Installed Capacity 2013 90,000 Installed Capacity by June 2013 (MW) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - The World Wind Association (2013) 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 13
    • Wind Resources and Grid Location for Australia • Australia has excellent wind resources, particularly in western, south western, southern, and south-east costal regions. • Grid places constraints on development due to lack of capacity or availability, particularly in South Australia Source: Windlab Systems Pty Ltd, DEWHA Renewable Energy Atlas (wind map data); Geoscience Australia www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 14
    • Major Electricity Projects completed between October 2012 and August 2013 Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 15
    • New Electricity Projects at Committed Stage 1P 194 MW 40 MW 2% 7% 3P 22% Gas 4P 588 MW Wind Hydro 14P 1,867 MW Solar P = Projects 69% 18 November 2013 www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Page 16
    • Wind Farms at Feasibility Stage (as at September 2013) Wind Farms at Feasibility Stage 25000 55 20000 15000 10000 18 5000 14 7 11 3 2 0 0 NSW QLD WA NT SA Capacity (MW) Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au VIC TAS TOTAL Value (B$) 18 November 2013 Page 17
    • Top 20 companies at feasibility or committed Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 18
    • Total Investment Pipeline for Wind Investment Pipeline for Wind 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Capacity (MW) Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au Value ($M) 18 November 2013 Page 19
    • Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 20
    • AEMO’s Forecasts Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 21
    • The Big Issues • Electricity Demand (declining demand, residential PV uptake, LNG projects) • Wholesale electricity prices (demand, more renewables, carbon price) • Co-financing availability (ARENA, CEFC) • LGC certificate prices • Targets Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 22
    • Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 23
    • Electricity Demand • Residential PV/SHW • LNG projects • Retail electricity prices • Energy efficiency • Economic growth Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 24
    • Wholesale Electricity Prices • Carbon price aside, wholesale prices have been declining (demand, renewables, less peaking) • Carbon price may go • More renewables will mean lower prices • This has occurred despite high gas prices Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 25
    • Availability of co-financing options RET 2020 GWh Target minus Non-Wind Renewable GWh generation in 2020 = Wind GWh generation in 2020 Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 26
    • Wind vs Solar Levelised Cost Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 27
    • Electricity Markets • NEM - Potential saturation in certain states • SWIS – Capacity market not providing optimal incentives for investment Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 28
    • Certificate Prices: LGC Spot Prices Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 29
    • Targets • Review in 2014 In both current legislation and the Carbon Tax Repeal Bill. • Political uncertainty remains, which could ‘backload’ required investment Add footer text here or delete www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 18 November 2013 Page 30
    • www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au 1300 553 542 enquiries@cleanenergyregulator.gov.au www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au