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Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia
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Wayne Calder - Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics - Resources and energy – The outlook for Australia

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Wayne Calder delivered the presentation at the 2014 Heavy Haul Rail Conference. …

Wayne Calder delivered the presentation at the 2014 Heavy Haul Rail Conference.

The 2014 Heavy Haul Rail Conference had a focus on driving efficiency with smarter technology. Australasia’s only heavy haul rail event is the annual meeting place for professionals interested in the latest projects, technologies and innovation in this dynamic sector.

For more information about the event, please visit: http://bit.ly/hhroz14

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  • 1. bree.gov.au Resources and energy—the outlook for Australia Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE)
  • 2. bree.gov.au Key messages Still opportunities for resources and energy exports to emerging economies Investment in capital formation and growing energy consumption growth will support demand for bulk commodities Transition to the production phase accelerating Iron ore and coal are key exports for Australia, and will continue to provide significant earnings over the medium term
  • 3. bree.gov.au Regional economic growth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 China Japan South Korea India OECD % 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: IMF; BREE
  • 4. bree.gov.au China’s GDP 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 %yr Billion Yuan Marginal GDP Growth (LHS) GDP Growth Rate % (RHS) Source: IMF China Boom China Bust??? GFC & Rebound
  • 5. bree.gov.au Steel production growth to be steady 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mt China EU 28 Japan US India Source: BREE
  • 6. bree.gov.au China’s monthly steel production 20 40 60 80 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Mt
  • 7. bree.gov.au Australia’s iron ore exports Sources: ABS; BREE 20 40 60 80 100 200 400 600 800 1998–99 2002–03 2006–07 2010–11 2014–15 volume value (right axis) Mt 2013–14 A$b
  • 8. bree.gov.au Australia’s metallurgical coal exports Sources: ABS; BREE 10 20 30 40 50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2004–05 2007–08 2010–11 2013–14 volume value (right axis) Mt 2013–14 A$b
  • 9. bree.gov.au Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (%) IEA New Policies Scenario -200 200 400 600 800 1000 % non-OECD OECD
  • 10. bree.gov.au Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (Mtoe) IEA New Policies Scenario -500 500 1000 1500 Mtoe non-OECD OECD
  • 11. bree.gov.au Power generation in non-OECD Asia IEA New Policies Scenario 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 18000 1990 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 TWh Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Oil Other renewables Source: IEA
  • 12. bree.gov.au China’s electricity generation 100 200 300 400 500 600 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Billion kWh Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Other Electricity generation has been increasing rapidly and will continue to grow Thermal (coal and gas) sources account for the bulk of generation Inertia in the energy system will prevent any rapid change in generation mix
  • 13. bree.gov.au Power generation in India IEA New Policies Scenario 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035 TWh Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Oil Other renewables Source: IEA
  • 14. bree.gov.au Australia’s thermal coal exports Sources: ABS; BREE 5 10 15 20 25 50 100 150 200 250 2004–05 2007–08 2010–11 2013–14 volume value (right axis) Mt 2013–14 A$b
  • 15. bree.gov.au The production phase to increase export earnings 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 2008–09 2010–11 2012–13 2014–15 2016–17 2018–19 2013-14 A$b energy resources
  • 16. bree.gov.au Contact Wayne Calder Deputy Executive Director Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics wayne.calder@bree.gov.au 02 6243 7718

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