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Demand for nickel in other emerging markets
 

Demand for nickel in other emerging markets

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Thomas Höhne-Sparborth, Senior Economic Analyst at ...

Thomas Höhne-Sparborth, Senior Economic Analyst at
Roskill Information Services delivered this presentation at the 2013 China Nickel conference. For more information about the event or to register your interest for next year’s conference, please visit our website: www.immevents.com/mining-conference/china-nickel-conference

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    Demand for nickel in other emerging markets Demand for nickel in other emerging markets Presentation Transcript

    • Demand for nickel in otheremerging marketsThomas Höhne-SparborthSenior Economic AnalystRoskill Information ServicesMay 16, 2013
    • DisclaimerThe statements in this presentation represent the considered views of RoskillInformation Services Ltd. It includes certain statements that may be deemed"forward-looking statements“. All statements in this presentation, other thanstatements of historical facts, that address future market developments, governmentactions and events, are forward-looking statements. Although Roskill InformationServices Ltd. believes the outcomes expressed in such forward-looking statementsare based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of futureperformance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those inforward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differmaterially from those in forward-looking statements include changes in generaleconomic, market or business conditions.While Roskill Information Services Ltd. has made every reasonable effort to ensurethe veracity of the information presented it cannot expressly guarantee the accuracyand reliability of the estimates, forecasts and conclusions contained herein.Accordingly, the statements in the presentation should be used for general guidanceonly.
    • OverviewTrends in nickel consumptionGrowth markets for nickelWhich potential markets?Intensity of use of nickelCompeting trends in nickel consumptionProduction versus consumption of stainlessGrade substitutionRecycling ratesNon-stainless end usesOutlook
    • Trends in nickel consumptionacross major markets
    • On a regional basis, China was the only growth market for primarynickel from 2002-2012-200-1000100200300400500600700800China ROW CIS & OtherEuropeAmericas Rest of Asia EU (27)Consumption of refined nickel, 2002-2012e (kt)Source: Roskill, WBMS
    • So why is there no growth from the other BRICS countries?Source: Roskill, WBMS, IMFFranceGermanyItalyRussiaSpainUnited KingdomSAChinaIndiaJapanSouth KoreaTaiwanBrazilCanadaUSAAustraliaEU (27)05101520253035400 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000Stainlesssteelconsumption(kg/capita)GDP per capita (2012 US$)Stainless steel intensity of use, 2012e
    • Growth markets for stainless steel productionSource: Roskill, WBMS-1,000-800-600-400-20002004006008001,0001,200Change in production of stainless steel, 2002-2012e (kt)
    • Growth in stainless production does not correlate closely withgrowth in nickel consumptionSource: Roskill, WBMS-50-40-30-20-1001020Change in consumption of refined nickel, 2002-2012e (kt)
    • Significant differences between countries in intensity of use ofnickel hint at distinct underlying trendsSource: Roskill, WBMS0.000.050.100.150.200.25Consumption of primary nickel per unit of country’s stainless steelproduction, 2012e2012e World average nickel content in stainless 2012e
    • In China, growth rates in nickel consumption are lower than thoseof stainless steel productionSource: Roskill, WBMS0.030.040.050.060.070.0802,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012eRelativeintensityofuseConsumption/production(kt)China: Nickel consumption vs. stainless production, 2002-2012ePrimary nickel consumption (LHS) Stainless steel production (LHS)Relative intensity of use (RHS)
    • 0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500NickelconsumptionperunitofstainelssStainless steel production (kt)Change in use of refined nickel per unit of stainless steel,2002-2012BrazilSouth KoreaSouth AfricaIndiaUSAJapanWorldwide there has been convergence to lower intensity of useover the last decadeSource: Roskill, WBMSRussia andUkraine
    • Competing trends in the use ofnickel
    • Source: Roskill, WBMS, Global Trade Atlas05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500Stainless production (kt)India South AfricaBrazil Russia & Ukraine05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500Stainless consumption (kt)India South AfricaBrazil Russia & UkraineIn the other BRICS countries, stainless consumption has increasedat a much higher rate than production
    • Source: Roskill, WBMS, Global Trade AtlasDifference between trends in consumption and production areaccounted for through changes in net exports-400-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600Net exports of stainless steel,2002-2012eIndia South AfricaBrazil Russia and UkraineTotal exports Total imports• While stainless consumption in theother BRICS countries increased byan average of 6.8%py over the lastdecade, production increased only2.6%py• China’s emergence as a net exporteraccounts or 42% of the decline in netexports of the other BRICS countries• The recent rise in net exports is largelyaccounted for by rising demand inother emerging markets• Indonesia had estimated net importsof 256kt of stainless steel in 2012
    • Source: Roskill, ISSFThe price of nickel has inspired a change in the composition ofstainless steel05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0000102030405060708090100Nickelprice(US$2012/t)%ofstainlesssteelStainless steel production by grade, 2001-2020f300 series (CrNi grades) 400 series (Cr grades) 200 series (CrMn grades)Other/not known Nickel price
    • Source: RoskillHowever, trends in manganese consumption hint at significantregional differences in this substitution processManganese consumption byend use, 2012eSteelAluminium alloysCast ironEMD, batteries, direct, otherOther non-ferrous alloys, superalloys-10%0%10%20%30%40%CAGR of stainless steelproduction and manganese oreconsumption, 2002-2012eStainless steel productionManganese consumption
    • Source: RoskillWhere growth in manganese consumption outpaces stainlessproduction, substitution of 300-grades is the most likely cause-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%China Brazil RussiaandUkraineJapan SouthAfricaIndia USA SouthKoreaWorldDifference between trends in stainless steel production andmanganese consumption, 2002-2012e
    • Source: Roskill, WBMS, INSGRecycling rates have contributed to decreased consumption ofprimary nickel, but at different rates-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%India Russia SouthAfricaBrazilEstimated change in recyclingrate, 2002-2012e050100150200250300350Estimated stainless scrapconsumption (2002 = 100)Russia Brazil India South Africa
    • Source: Roskill, Airline Monitor, UNEP, PrismarkPartners, Goldman Sachs, EIUConsiderable growth expected from other applications of nickel• Strong growth in demand for nickelalloys from aerospace industry (23%forecast increase in airline deliveries,2012-2020)• Electronics and chemical industriesexpected to grow at 4-5%py globally• World vehicle demand expected to growfrom 87M in 2012 to 107M in 2020• 70% growth in construction sectorexpected from 2010-2020• On-going economic growth drivingdemand for other nickel-containing metalgoodsEnd uses of primary nickel,2012eStainless steel Nickel alloyElectroplating Other steel millFoundry Other uses
    • Source: Roskill, Airline Monitor, UNEP, PrismarkPartners, Goldman Sachs, EIUConsiderable growth expected from other applications of nickel3.3%2.8%3.2%3.1%2.2%2.2%1.6%4.8%4.3%3.0%TotalOthersIndustrial machineryAutomotiveOther energyNuclearOil & GasElectronics/ appliancesChemical/process industryAerospaceForecast growth in nickel alloyconsuming industries, 2012-2020f01002003004005006007008009002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Forecast nickel consumption innon-stainless steel applications,2012-2020 (kt)Plating Nickel alloyOther alloy steels Other applications
    • Outlook
    • Source: Roskill, WBMSConsiderable growth expected from other applications of nickel0.000.050.100.150.200.25Consumption of primary nickel per unit of country’sstainless steel production, 2012e-2020f2012e2020fWorld average nickel content in stainless 2012eWorld average nickel content in stainless 2020f
    • Source: Roskill, WBMSConsiderable growth expected from other applications of nickel0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500NickelconsumptionperunitofstainlessStainless steel production (kt)Change in use of refined nickel per unit of stainless steel,2002-2012e-2020fBrazil South KoreaJapanSouth AfricaUSAIndiaRussia andUkraine
    • Primary nickel consumption in selected countries, 2012e-2020f (kt)7801,1002012 2020China28522012 2020India29 332012 2020Russia and Ukraine35 392012 2020South Africa13 182012 2020BrazilForecast growth in world consumption of primary nickel: 4.3% - 5.3%pyFor a full breakdown of growth by region, see Roskill’s upcoming Nickel reportSource: Roskill1281872012 2020USA
    • STEEL ALLOYS – MINOR METALS – INDUSTRIAL MINERALSRoskill Consulting Group Ltd.Thomas Höhne-SparborthSenior Economic Analyst+44 (0)20 8417 0087ths@roskill.co.ukNew Nickel Market Outlook Report due Q3 2013Facing a major decision? We help youexplore the impact on the market – andthe impact on you