• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Paul Balfe - Acil Allen Consulting - Overview of the Gas Market
 

Paul Balfe - Acil Allen Consulting - Overview of the Gas Market

on

  • 214 views

Paul Balfe delivered the presentation at 2014 Gas Compressor Stations Conference. ...

Paul Balfe delivered the presentation at 2014 Gas Compressor Stations Conference.

The Gas Compressor Stations Conference is the only conference specifically dedicated to the design, build and maintenance of gas compressor stations.

For more information about the event, please visit: http://www.informa.com.au/gascompressors14

Statistics

Views

Total Views
214
Views on SlideShare
214
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
8
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Paul Balfe - Acil Allen Consulting - Overview of the Gas Market Paul Balfe - Acil Allen Consulting - Overview of the Gas Market Presentation Transcript

    • Gas Supply & Demand Outlook for Eastern Australia Gas Compressor Stations Conference Stamford Plaza, Brisbane Paul Balfe Executive Director 29 April 2014
    • Key Messages 1. LNG exports are transforming the Eastern Australia gas market – Tripling total gas demand while domestic demand outlook is depressed 2. The ramp up of demand for LNG will put great pressure on current supply sources – Creating opportunities for new conventional sources, CSG and other “unconventional” gas: shale gas, tight gas 3. Gas prices are already rising to about triple historical levels 4. High levels of ongoing activity in CSG drilling and associated field services Gas Compressor Stations Conference Slide 2
    • Domestic gas demand outlook, by sector Gas Compressor Stations Conference Slide 3 Source: ACIL Allen modelling
    • Why is domestic gas demand collapsing? • A Perfect Storm: – Competing demand from LNG Projects • Driving rising gas prices – Manufacturing industry declining • Strong A$; declining competitiveness • Manufacturing closures affect direct gas demand and indirect gas demand (via electricity) – NEM electricity demand falling • With gas-fired electricity generation most heavily affected – C-tax low to zero; rising gas prices; low electricity pool prices; black & brown coal running hard (no Contract for Closure); RET-driven renewables keep coming in • No new entrant base load plant before 2020 Gas Compressor Stations Conference Slide 4
    • Projected NEM generation mix Black coal 53.2% Brown coal 24.0% Hydro 8.7% Natural gas 12.0% Solar 0.0% Wind 2.1% 2013 Black coal 56.9% Brown coal 23.1% Hydro 7.8% Natural gas 3.8% Solar 0.2% Wind 8.3% 2020 2013 2020 Gas Compressor Stations Conference Slide 5 Source: ACIL Allen modelling
    • But TOTAL EA gas demand is growing strongly … • LNG exports will see total gas consumption in EA more than triple by 2030 Gas Compressor Stations Conference 6 Source: ACIL Allen modelling
    • EA gas production history Gas Compressor Stations Conference Source: ACIL Allen analysis of APPEA data 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 NSW CSG 1 1 1 2 2 3 4.5 5.1 5.5 4.8 5.9 5.8 5.9 Qld GSG 5.6 9.5 16.2 27.4 29.5 36.4 63.2 86.2 125.1 150.9 212.0 233.5 268.7 Otway/Bass 21.7 17.4 24.4 23.8 16.2 52.2 76.0 85.3 129.5 136.7 129.9 126.7 121.2 Bowen/Surat 22.5 22.5 23.1 24.9 26.7 25.7 28.2 46.4 52.7 9.7 14.8 10.7 3.2 Amadeus 19.0 18.1 18.8 19.4 18.4 20.5 20.4 30.1 19.7 18.7 3.1 1.8 4.2 Gippsland 182.3 222.6 213.5 223.7 259.9 241.8 238.2 289.6 290.3 224.3 239.5 235.5 262.4 Cooper/Eromanga 277.5 278.2 276.7 258.5 209.3 200.6 174.7 135.0 139.0 137.9 115.4 116.1 119.7 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Production(PJ) 7
    • Where will new gas come from? • Conventional: – Bass Strait (Gippsland, Otway, Bass Basins) • eg Kipper/Tuna/Turrum; Halladale/Blackwatch; Rockhopper • CSG – Queensland: best of the resource is LNG committed; marginal production economics??? – NSW: major resources but little recent progress – bogged down with policy/approvals issues and public opposition to development • Missed the boat? • “Unconventional” (Shale gas, tight gas) – For EA most promising is Cooper Basin tight/shale gas • Encouraging technical results • Large in situ resource established – Some “wet gas” • Early commercialisation under way (eg Moomba 191) • Cost structure/economics?? No cheap gas without associated liquids Gas Compressor Stations Conference Slide 8
    • Brisbane Gladstone Moranbah Townsville Newcastle Sydney Hobart Melbourne Adelaide MountIsa Bowen CSG Surat CSG Gunnedah CSG Sydney CSG Ballera Iona Lang Lang Longford Orbost Wallumbilla Moomba Gladstone CSG LNG plantsQueensland New South Wales South Australia Victoria Tasmania Northern Territory Gas prices now reflect market interconnection • Previously separated geographic markets now interconnected • Producers have options where they sell • Producers will seek the best prices for their products • Price trends are reflected throughout the interconnected market Gas Compressor Stations Conference 9
    • Wholesale gas prices: rising throughout EA Energy Networks 2014 AEMO data Slide 10
    • Will CSG LNG projects be short of supply? Gas Compressor Stations Conference ACIL Allen analysis based on Santos 2013 Reserves Statement Slide 11
    • Future gas price risk Gas Compressor Stations Conference $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 Indicative wholesale gas price $/GJ Base Supply LowSupply High Supply No spike Long-termsettlement prices:indicative only Will a “price bubble” emerge? How high? How long? Slide 12
    • CSG drilling requirements Gas Compressor Stations Conference The CSG LNG Projects will require a high level of on-going drilling and associated field services Slide 13 ACIL Tasman, 2011: Titan Energy Prospectus
    • Gas Supply & Demand Outlook for Eastern Australia Gas Compressor Stations Conference Stamford Plaza, Brisbane Paul Balfe Executive Director 29 April 2014