Global gas market trends and opportunities for Australia

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Mike Sangster, MD, Total E&P Australia speaks at SEAAOC 2012 on Global gas markets and opportunities for Australia. Find out more at http://www.seaaoc.com

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Global gas market trends and opportunities for Australia

  1. 1. SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 Global gas market trends and opportunities for Australia Mike Sangster, Managing Director, TOTAL E&P Australia
  2. 2. Bontang Yemen LNG Qatargas 2 Qatargas 1 Adgas Qalhat LNG Oman LNG GLNG TOTAL’s LNG portfolio – strong and diversified Existing LNG plants LNG projects under construction LNG projects (FEED or under study) Existing regasification terminals Under construction regasification terminals Ichthys Snohvit Yamal Angola LNG Nigeria LNG T7 Brass LNG Nigeria LNG T1-T6 Brass LNG Yamal LNGIchthysGLNGAngola LNG South Hook Dunkerque LNG Fos Cavaou Hazira Sabine Pass Altamira 2 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
  3. 3. TOTAL’s LNG sales destinations in 2011 (pro rata group share) 2011 flows Asia 61% Continental Europe 21% UK 9% Middle East 1% South America 2% North America 6% 13,25Mt 3SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 13.3Mt
  4. 4. All energy sources are needed to meet global demand 30% 24% 22% 6% 11% 3% 4% 33% 22% 26% 6% 10% 2% 1% 2010 2030(e) 100 300 Mboe/d 200 Hydro Nuclear Oil Biomass Solar, wind, others Gas Coal 4 Source: Total estimates Fossil energies : 76% of the energy mix Fossil energies : 81% of the energy mix • Moderate growth of global energy demand (+25% in 20 years) • Fossil fuels to represent 76% of energy supply in 2030 • Gas to become the second-largest energy source by 2030 • Strong growth but limited contribution of renewable energies SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
  5. 5. Gas supply / demand Bcf/d 0 30 60 90 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 Gas demand Domestic supply Pipeline imports Existing LNG contracts +1.5% CAGR North America +1.8% CAGR Europe +6.2% CAGR Asia 5 +2.5% per year 2010-20 GAS DEMAND Strong growth in global gas demand led by a booming Asian market On the demand side, natural gas will secure its position in the electricity mix by being a cleaner, safe, flexible and competitive fuel. SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
  6. 6. SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 LNG, a growth market with increase in demand = +5% per year between 2010-2020 Strong LNG demand in both traditional and emerging markets Asian market particularly strong Complexity of LNG projects increasing tensions on supply Tightening markets supportive of gas prices in Europe and Asia Large capital requirements needed to match LNG demand Global LNG supply / demand Existing facilities Approved projects Asian demand Other demand 400 200 Mt/y 600 LNG supply LNG nominal capacities 2005 2010 2015(e) 2020(e) 2025(e) 2030(e) ~15 ~50 ~100 LNG supply based on other identified projects 6
  7. 7. Significant gas resources yet to be produced Gas resources * Conventional Unconventional ~15 000 TcfUnconventional Conventional North America 27% Central & South America 5% Africa & Middle East 25% Europe 3% Asia 17% FSU 23% *including yet to find % Share of world resources 7SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
  8. 8. 0 200 400 600 200 400 kboe/d 15(e) 20(e)10 600 0 100 200 300 400 200 400 kb/d 15(e) 20(e)10 0 100 200 300 400 200 400 kboe/d 15(e) 20(e)10 TOTAL E&P global strategy: focus on four key areas Deep offshore  Largest operator in West Africa in 2012 Heavy oil  Top tier producer by 2020 Unconventional gas  Capitalize on expertise to open new plays 0 200 400 600 200 400 kboe/d 15(e) 20(e)10 600 Targeting growth and technological segments LNG  2nd largest player SEAAOC, 19th September, 20128
  9. 9. Ichthys & Gladstone LNG projects Total 30%, INPEX 66.07% (operator) Production: 8.4 mtpa of LNG, 100 kb/d of condensates, 1.6 mtpa of LPG Long-term off-take contracts with oil linked price formula FID Jan 2012, start-up end-2016 Gladstone LNG plant Ichthys Darwin Ichthys pipeline 9 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 Total 27.5%, Santos 30% (operator), Petronas 27.5%, KOGAS 15% Production: 7.2 mtpa of LNG FID Jan 2011, start-up 2015
  10. 10. Total non-operated DARWIN ICHTHYS Bonaparte Browse 100 km Total operated WA-402/403P  Total 60 % (op.)  Petronas 40% WA-408  Total 100% (op.) WA-285P (Ichthys)  Total 30%  Inpex 66.07% (op.) WA 341/343/344  Total 40%  Inpex 60% (op.) 7 offshore exploration permits in Australia 10 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
  11. 11. Will Australia capitalise on next LNG wave? Continued strong demand for LNG, especially in Asia, and Australia is ideally placed to provide supply TOTAL is pleased to be part of Australia’s LNG success We want to be part of the Australia’s LNG future High cost of doing business remains a concern, given there will be increased competition from other origins SEAAOC, 19th September, 201211
  12. 12. Disclaimer and copyright reservation The TOTAL GROUP is defined as TOTAL S.A. and its affiliates and shall include the party making the presentation. Disclaimer This presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business, strategy and plans of Total that are subject to risk factors and uncertainties caused by changes in, without limitation, technological development and innovation, supply sources, legal framework, market conditions, political or economic events. Total does not assume any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Further information on factors which could affect the company’s financial results is provided in documents filed by the Group with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, no reliance may be placed on the accuracy or correctness of any such statements. Copyright All rights are reserved and all material in this presentation may not be reproduced without the express written permission of the Total Group. 12 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
  13. 13. SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 Thank you

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