Lauren Jewell - Price Waterhouse Coopers - Assessing the economic benefits of commuter rail in New Zealand
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Lauren Jewell - Price Waterhouse Coopers - Assessing the economic benefits of commuter rail in New Zealand

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Lauren Jewell delivered the presentation at the 2014 New Zealand Rail conference. ...

Lauren Jewell delivered the presentation at the 2014 New Zealand Rail conference.

The 2014 New Zealand Rail conference explored issues that would help to secure the economic development of New Zealand. With a focus on new projects and balanced funding, this event discussed ways to ensure the seamless growth of the next 10 years.

For more information about the event, please visit: http://www.informa.com.au/nzrailconference14

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Lauren Jewell - Price Waterhouse Coopers - Assessing the economic benefits of commuter rail in New Zealand Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Assessing the Economic Benefits of Commuter Rail June 2014 www.pwc.com
  • 2. PwC Overview • Introduction • What matters in evaluating the economics of rail • Some red herrings in rail economics • The elephants in the room June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 2
  • 3. PwC What matters in evaluating the economics of rail June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 3
  • 4. PwC Critical determinants of successful economic evaluation (aka how to get a high BCR) 1. The do-minimum 2. Travel times 3. Patronage 4. Costs Rail is not an answer looking for a problem. We need to understand how cities move and rail’s strengths and weaknesses in dealing with this June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 4
  • 5. PwC Red herrings from an economics perspective June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 5
  • 6. PwC Environmental benefits June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 6 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.3 5.3 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Tonnes(000) Total localised emissions by option and comparison to baseline (CO, HC, NOX, PM10) Source: Dieselnet, MRCagney, PwC analysis Cost & benefits relative to baseline (PV, $m) Diesel & Trolley Diesel & Dual Diesel Hybrid & Trolley Hybrid & Dual Hybrid Electric HFC Acc. Hybrid Acc. Electric Acc. HFC Benefits Travel time reduction 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 Carbon emissions reduction 0.2 0.1 (0.2) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.1 Local emissions reduction 19.7 19.1 19.3 21.5 20.9 21.1 19.5 19.1 22.7 23.8 23.8 T otal 55.2 54.4 54.3 57.3 56.6 56.7 55.3 54.6 58.3 60.6 60.1 Costs Capital costs 12.0 19.8 (89.8) 45.3 53.2 (44.5) (9.6) 240.5 (37.7) 71.2 637.5 Operating costs (7.8) (5.9) (3.1) (17.9) (16.0) (16.9) (14.1) 10.7 (17.9) (25.6) 28.3 T otal 4.2 14.0 (92.9) 27.4 37.2 (61.4) (23.7) 251.2 (55.6) 45.6 665.8 Comparative BCR 13.1 3.9 (0.6) 2.1 1.5 (0.9) (2.3) 0.2 (1.0) 1.3 0.1 Net benefits relative to baseline 51 40 147 30 19 118 79 (197) 114 15 (606)
  • 7. PwC Modal capacity arguments Source: Siemens • Power of rail in number of people moved per hour is undeniable in peak • Origins and destinations matter • Opex matters • Inter-peak really matters June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 7
  • 8. PwC The elephants in the room ……why might rail not fare so well with economists? June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 8
  • 9. PwC The tyranny of marginal costs and marginal benefits June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 9
  • 10. PwC The tyranny of marginal costs and marginal benefits June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 10 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Britomart Daily Boarding and Alighting Model Estimate Daily
  • 11. PwC Land Use – Inner West June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 11
  • 12. PwC Land Use – Outer West and East June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 12
  • 13. PwC Land Use - South June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 13
  • 14. PwC Resilience and reliability Source: Fairfax New Zealand June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 14
  • 15. PwC Why is it so hard to get heavy rail and light rail projects across the line? 1. Cost 2. Network and services 3. Lack of network analysis 4. Single land use June 2014Economic Evaluation of Commuter Rail 15