0
2012 China’s imported coal
market analysis
& 2013 forecast
Market distribution and situation of
China's imported coal
 The characteristics of China's coal reserves
 Rich in resour...
 Background of coal import
 Government’s attitude (Limit export, Encourage Import,

economic stimulus)
 transportation ...
The gap of Chinese coal demand in the next 20 years(million tons standard)

600000
538442.49
504785.49

500000
429561.87

...
 China's coal demand gap in the next 20 years might

reach 1.5 billion tons
 3 stages of China’s coal trade history
 Be...
Chinese coal import and export trends in 2002-2011
20000
18240

18000
16483

16000
14000
12000

12583

10000

import

8000...
 Main sources of China’s imported coal and its

development direction
 Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Russia a...
nation

Mi ton%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Indonesia

import

193.8

77.8

127.5

235.0
...
 The development direction of China‘s imported coal

source
 Factors need to concern
 1、 Strategic point of view
 2、St...
China current coal prices and
market situation
 In 2012, production growth fell back, stock rise sharply

- Total output ...
 Coal price falling sharply in 2012.
 Still continued drop till now

 Till March 2013 coal inventories are still high
...
 The main factors affecting the current coal market

 Economy stabilized and rebound, but actual growth

less than expec...
China Coal consumption and
Import expectation
 2013 Domestic coal production will remain at a high

level.
 No obvious i...
 Recent import steam coal market is under weak

consolidation
 quotation is temporarily stable:
 Indonesia USD49-50/MT ...
 A gently rising in social power consumption this year

 View:
 In 2013, China's demand for imported coal will still

g...
Company introduction:

Fujian Sunway Resources Limited
 Enter into coal business since 2006
 Mainly served for the power...
 Contact: Mr. Huang Xiaogang (Richard)

Vice General Manager
 Tel: 0086-591-87834677
 Fax: 0086-591-87850748
 Email:f...
THANK YOU
Huang Xiaogang (Richard)
Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast
Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast
Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast
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Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast

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Huang Xiaogang, Vice General Manager, Fujian Sunway Resources Limited delivered this presentation at the 2013 Russian & CIS Coal Summit. Co-organised with Informa's Adam Smith Conferences, the Summit provides top CEOs, investors, analysts and officials with a platform for debate, analysis and networking with the key representatives from Russia's major coal producing companies. For more information about the annual event, please visit the conference website: http://www.immevents.com/russiaciscoal

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Transcript of "Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast"

  1. 1. 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast
  2. 2. Market distribution and situation of China's imported coal  The characteristics of China's coal reserves  Rich in resources, but per capita is low, the existing reserves recoverable only 35 years  Uneven resources distribution, Rich in North & West, Poor in South& East  Regional varieties and quality difference, unsatisfactory distribution  lack of open pit, difficult in exploit and higher cost
  3. 3.  Background of coal import  Government’s attitude (Limit export, Encourage Import, economic stimulus)  transportation bottleneck, complex geological and mining factors, disadvantage in price competition  Sudden weather conditions  Coastal provinces are China's main imports coal market
  4. 4. The gap of Chinese coal demand in the next 20 years(million tons standard) 600000 538442.49 504785.49 500000 429561.87 400000 300000 200000 100000 365548.14 352000 311073.79 consum prediction coal production 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
  5. 5.  China's coal demand gap in the next 20 years might reach 1.5 billion tons  3 stages of China’s coal trade history  Before 2004 ------ export based  2004 - 2009 ------ import increase  After 2009 ------ Net import
  6. 6. Chinese coal import and export trends in 2002-2011 20000 18240 18000 16483 16000 14000 12000 12583 10000 import 8000 export 6000 4000 2000 2240 1903 1466 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  7. 7.  Main sources of China’s imported coal and its development direction  Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Russia are the main country where China import coal at present  2002-2011 Main countries where China import coal
  8. 8. nation Mi ton% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Indonesia import 193.8 77.8 127.5 235.0 493.8 1124.4 1118.6 3030.9 5503.1 6469.6 increase - -59.9% 64.0% 84.2% 110.2% 127.7% -0.5% 171.0% 81.6% 17.6% import 434.2 464.2 528.1 588.5 690.1 413.9 354.3 4394.9 3696.3 3255.6 increase - 6.9% 13.8% 11.4% 17.3% -40.0% -14.4% 1140.4% -15.9% -11.9% import 224.2 248.7 611.7 993.1 2008.0 2461.6 1690.6 2408.2 1804.7 2206.6 increase - 11.0% 145.9% 62.4% 102.2% 22.6% -31.3% 42.4% -25.1% 22.3% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 235.1 215.4 311.9 404.4 600.3 1659.5 2015.5 increase - - - - -8.3% 44.8% 29.7% 48.5% 176.4% 21.5% import 115.2 72.5 60.7 89.7 99.1 26.8 76.0 1178.5 1158.6 1057.4 increase - -37.1% -16.2% 47.7% 10.5% -72. 9% 183.5% 1450.6% -1.7% -8.7% import 39.0 72.8 157.1 280.0 248.1 374.1 253.7 359.8 461.1 1116.9 increase - 86.6% 115.7% 78.2% -11.4% 50.8% -32.2% 41.8% 29.0% 140.7% import 0.0 0.0 181.5 122.9 14.6 22.3 56.0 409.3 519.7 449.5 increase - - - - - - - - 857.4% 32.1% import 40.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.2 700.5 925.6 increase - - - - - - - - 857.4% 32.1% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.5 476.8 490.0 increase - - - - - - - - 492.6% 2.8% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 377.9 131.0 Australia Vietnam Mongolia Russia Korea Canada South Africa America Colombia
  9. 9.  The development direction of China‘s imported coal source  Factors need to concern  1、 Strategic point of view  2、Stability of supply  Trend  Australia -- main  Vietnam, Indonesia – decrease  Mongolia, Russia -- increase
  10. 10. China current coal prices and market situation  In 2012, production growth fell back, stock rise sharply - Total output 3.66 billion tons - Stock at end of 2012 85 million tons  Import 0.29 billion tons in 2012  More in 2013 , give pressure on domestic coal price。
  11. 11.  Coal price falling sharply in 2012.  Still continued drop till now  Till March 2013 coal inventories are still high  Coal producer’s inventory year-on-year growth37.8%  Power plant’s inventory year-on-year down 3.6%  Port inventory year-on-year growth 31.5%
  12. 12.  The main factors affecting the current coal market  Economy stabilized and rebound, but actual growth less than expected  Domestic coal production capacity release  The effects on domestic coal market from imported coal is enhancing  Slowly growth of main coal consumption industry  new changes in energy consumption structure  strengthen environmental constraints  policy adjustments
  13. 13. China Coal consumption and Import expectation  2013 Domestic coal production will remain at a high level.  No obvious improvement in the 2013 first half  Slow growth in Demand, slow growth in coal consumption。
  14. 14.  Recent import steam coal market is under weak consolidation  quotation is temporarily stable:  Indonesia USD49-50/MT CFR NCV3800Kcal/kg  Australian & South Africa  USD82.5-83.5/MT CFR NCV5500Kcal/kg coal  wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong  "smooth" and "weak rebound" is the basic characteristics of China's economy this year.
  15. 15.  A gently rising in social power consumption this year  View:  In 2013, China's demand for imported coal will still grow, growth speed may be slowing  Imported coal prices remain relatively stable at low level
  16. 16. Company introduction: Fujian Sunway Resources Limited  Enter into coal business since 2006  Mainly served for the power plants, steelworks in the China Southeast Coastal Areas  Sincerely looking forward to establish mutual beneficial long-term co-operations with coal production enterprises
  17. 17.  Contact: Mr. Huang Xiaogang (Richard)  Vice General Manager  Tel: 0086-591-87834677  Fax: 0086-591-87850748  Email:fjggsw@gmail.com  Website: www.sunwayfj.com
  18. 18. THANK YOU Huang Xiaogang (Richard)
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