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Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast
 

Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast

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Huang Xiaogang, Vice General Manager, Fujian Sunway Resources Limited delivered this presentation at the 2013 Russian & CIS Coal Summit. Co-organised with Informa's Adam Smith Conferences, the Summit ...

Huang Xiaogang, Vice General Manager, Fujian Sunway Resources Limited delivered this presentation at the 2013 Russian & CIS Coal Summit. Co-organised with Informa's Adam Smith Conferences, the Summit provides top CEOs, investors, analysts and officials with a platform for debate, analysis and networking with the key representatives from Russia's major coal producing companies. For more information about the annual event, please visit the conference website: http://www.immevents.com/russiaciscoal

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    Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast Huang Xiaogang, Fujian Sunway Resources: 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast Presentation Transcript

    • 2012 China’s imported coal market analysis & 2013 forecast
    • Market distribution and situation of China's imported coal  The characteristics of China's coal reserves  Rich in resources, but per capita is low, the existing reserves recoverable only 35 years  Uneven resources distribution, Rich in North & West, Poor in South& East  Regional varieties and quality difference, unsatisfactory distribution  lack of open pit, difficult in exploit and higher cost
    •  Background of coal import  Government’s attitude (Limit export, Encourage Import, economic stimulus)  transportation bottleneck, complex geological and mining factors, disadvantage in price competition  Sudden weather conditions  Coastal provinces are China's main imports coal market
    • The gap of Chinese coal demand in the next 20 years(million tons standard) 600000 538442.49 504785.49 500000 429561.87 400000 300000 200000 100000 365548.14 352000 311073.79 consum prediction coal production 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
    •  China's coal demand gap in the next 20 years might reach 1.5 billion tons  3 stages of China’s coal trade history  Before 2004 ------ export based  2004 - 2009 ------ import increase  After 2009 ------ Net import
    • Chinese coal import and export trends in 2002-2011 20000 18240 18000 16483 16000 14000 12000 12583 10000 import 8000 export 6000 4000 2000 2240 1903 1466 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
    •  Main sources of China’s imported coal and its development direction  Indonesia, Australia, Vietnam, Mongolia, Russia are the main country where China import coal at present  2002-2011 Main countries where China import coal
    • nation Mi ton% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Indonesia import 193.8 77.8 127.5 235.0 493.8 1124.4 1118.6 3030.9 5503.1 6469.6 increase - -59.9% 64.0% 84.2% 110.2% 127.7% -0.5% 171.0% 81.6% 17.6% import 434.2 464.2 528.1 588.5 690.1 413.9 354.3 4394.9 3696.3 3255.6 increase - 6.9% 13.8% 11.4% 17.3% -40.0% -14.4% 1140.4% -15.9% -11.9% import 224.2 248.7 611.7 993.1 2008.0 2461.6 1690.6 2408.2 1804.7 2206.6 increase - 11.0% 145.9% 62.4% 102.2% 22.6% -31.3% 42.4% -25.1% 22.3% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 235.1 215.4 311.9 404.4 600.3 1659.5 2015.5 increase - - - - -8.3% 44.8% 29.7% 48.5% 176.4% 21.5% import 115.2 72.5 60.7 89.7 99.1 26.8 76.0 1178.5 1158.6 1057.4 increase - -37.1% -16.2% 47.7% 10.5% -72. 9% 183.5% 1450.6% -1.7% -8.7% import 39.0 72.8 157.1 280.0 248.1 374.1 253.7 359.8 461.1 1116.9 increase - 86.6% 115.7% 78.2% -11.4% 50.8% -32.2% 41.8% 29.0% 140.7% import 0.0 0.0 181.5 122.9 14.6 22.3 56.0 409.3 519.7 449.5 increase - - - - - - - - 857.4% 32.1% import 40.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.2 700.5 925.6 increase - - - - - - - - 857.4% 32.1% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.5 476.8 490.0 increase - - - - - - - - 492.6% 2.8% import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 377.9 131.0 Australia Vietnam Mongolia Russia Korea Canada South Africa America Colombia
    •  The development direction of China‘s imported coal source  Factors need to concern  1、 Strategic point of view  2、Stability of supply  Trend  Australia -- main  Vietnam, Indonesia – decrease  Mongolia, Russia -- increase
    • China current coal prices and market situation  In 2012, production growth fell back, stock rise sharply - Total output 3.66 billion tons - Stock at end of 2012 85 million tons  Import 0.29 billion tons in 2012  More in 2013 , give pressure on domestic coal price。
    •  Coal price falling sharply in 2012.  Still continued drop till now  Till March 2013 coal inventories are still high  Coal producer’s inventory year-on-year growth37.8%  Power plant’s inventory year-on-year down 3.6%  Port inventory year-on-year growth 31.5%
    •  The main factors affecting the current coal market  Economy stabilized and rebound, but actual growth less than expected  Domestic coal production capacity release  The effects on domestic coal market from imported coal is enhancing  Slowly growth of main coal consumption industry  new changes in energy consumption structure  strengthen environmental constraints  policy adjustments
    • China Coal consumption and Import expectation  2013 Domestic coal production will remain at a high level.  No obvious improvement in the 2013 first half  Slow growth in Demand, slow growth in coal consumption。
    •  Recent import steam coal market is under weak consolidation  quotation is temporarily stable:  Indonesia USD49-50/MT CFR NCV3800Kcal/kg  Australian & South Africa  USD82.5-83.5/MT CFR NCV5500Kcal/kg coal  wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong  "smooth" and "weak rebound" is the basic characteristics of China's economy this year.
    •  A gently rising in social power consumption this year  View:  In 2013, China's demand for imported coal will still grow, growth speed may be slowing  Imported coal prices remain relatively stable at low level
    • Company introduction: Fujian Sunway Resources Limited  Enter into coal business since 2006  Mainly served for the power plants, steelworks in the China Southeast Coastal Areas  Sincerely looking forward to establish mutual beneficial long-term co-operations with coal production enterprises
    •  Contact: Mr. Huang Xiaogang (Richard)  Vice General Manager  Tel: 0086-591-87834677  Fax: 0086-591-87850748  Email:fjggsw@gmail.com  Website: www.sunwayfj.com
    • THANK YOU Huang Xiaogang (Richard)