2013 skc lecture   richard brown
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  • 1. Transport and Sustainable City Growth Sir Kenneth Cork Management Lecture CMI City of London Branch November 11th 2013 Richard Brown
  • 2. Agenda • • • • • • Recent travel and population growth in London Transport's environmental impact Transport's growth impact Future growth forecasts How can this be accommodated? Conclusions
  • 3. Recent Population Growth London South East England & Wales Source: O.N.S. 1983 -2012 +23%(+1.6m) +19%(+1.4m) +14%(+6m) 2002 - 2012 +12% (+0.9m) +8% (+0.7m) +7% (+4m)
  • 4. Growth in peak central London commuting Rail Tube Bus Car Cycle 1996 – 2008 +111,000 +28% +72,000 +22% +37,000 +68% -73,000 -51% +13,000 +160% Total +163,000 Source: UK Transport Statistics +16%
  • 5. The car - a mode on the decline
  • 6. Growing in popularity – the Underground
  • 7. Modal share of central London commuting Rail Tube Bus Car Cycle 1996 40% 33% 9% 14% 2% 2008 44% 35% 11% 6% 3%
  • 8. Environmental performance UK Rail London Underground London Bus Average hybrid car Average petrol car
  • 9. Looks a busy road… …but when you strip back the metal not many people are moved! Visual proof that buses are a solution to traffic congestion
  • 10. Modal performance
  • 11. How has travel growth been accommodated? • More trains: 36% (1997-2011) • Tube upgrades: • Victoria Line = +21% capacity • Northern Line = +20% • Jubilee Line = +20% • London Overground/Orbital • Javelin High Speed Service on HS1 • More buses: +50% (1996 -2012)
  • 12. Impact of Eurostar and HS1 on growth • 3.8m French tourists in 2012 – No. 1 origin country! • 350,000 French nationals in London – France’s 6th city • Regeneration of Kings Cross, Stratford and N. Kent • Estimated £10bn of wider economic benefits • £5.8bn cost
  • 13. Forecasts for London growth to 2033 • Population: +1m (+13%) ….or 50,000 people p.a. • Jobs • Households +600,000 +500,000 Source: London Plan
  • 14. But other forecasts point to faster growth • ONS forecast 16% or + 9.0 million growth in England and Wales to 2035 • If London growth continues as before this would imply +26% growth over next 20 years or + 100,000 people each year • Other commentators, eg Lord Adonis and London Assembly Transport Committee, agree
  • 15. Crossrail • £14.8 bn cost. Completion 2018. • Adds 10% to London rail capacity, 4.5% to total transport capacity.
  • 16. Thameslink • £6.0 bn cost. Completion 2018. • Adds c.6.5% to London rail capacity, 3.0% to total transport capacity.
  • 17. Future transport capacity increases Additional capacity Thameslink Crossrail Longer trains + electrification HS2 phase 1 HS2 phase 2 Crossrail 2 Cost Completion Date +3% +4.5% +3-5% +2% ? £6.0 bn £14.8bn £12.2 bn £17.2bn £17.0bn ? 2012-18 2018 2019 2026 2032 early 2030s? • Total capacity increase of 12.5 – 14.5%
  • 18. Conclusions • Growth and transport inextricability linked • Transport facilitates and drives growth • Continuing investment is essential