Gregor Erasim Vice President, Global Financial Services Capgemini
Market Sizing and Growth
Globally, the number of HNWIs increased 17.1% in 2009 to 10.0m, led by sharp increases in Asia-Pacific and North-America Number of HNWIs by Region (Millions), 2006-2009 Annual Change 2008 - 2009 Growth (08-09): 17.1% CAGR (06-08): -5.0% Total 10.1 m Total 10.0 m 13.2% Africa Total 9.5 m Total 8.6 m 7.1% Middle East Latin America 8.3% 25.8% Asia-Pacific 12.5% Europe NorthAmerica 16.6% Globally, the number of HNWIs nearly returned to 2007 levels, with Asia-Pacific region catching up with Europe in terms of the number of HNWIs. Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010 Note: Chart numbers may not add up due to rounding
A similar growth pattern was evident for HNWI Financial Wealth, which saw a 18.9% rise in 2009 to $39.0T from $32.8T in 2008 HNWI Financial Wealth by Region ($ USD Trillions), 2006-2009 Growth (08-09): 18.9% CAGR (06-08): -6.2% Annual Change 2008 - 2009 Total 40.7 T Total 39.0 T Total 37.2 T 20.2% Africa Total 32.8 T 5.1% Middle East Latin America 15.0% 30.9% Asia-Pacific 14.2% Europe NorthAmerica 17.8% In 2009, Latin America and Asia-Pacific were the only regions to exceed the 2007 HNWI wealth level, with Asia-Pacific surpassing Europe in HNWI wealth Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010 Note: Chart numbers may not add up due to rounding
In 2009, 8 out of the 10 countries with highest growth in HNWI population were from the Asia-Pacific region Country Specific Commentary Notable Countries with High HNWI Population Growth (%), 2008-09 Hong Kong:
After a fall of approximately 50% in 2008, the Hong Kong stock exchange rebounded strongly (up 73.5%) in 2009
A large percentage of HNWIs who had dropped into the “mass affluent” band in 2008, returned back to the $1mn+ wealth band in 2009
In 2009, Indian stock markets more than doubled
The economic outlook of India was very strong, growing nearly 7% during this period
Israel was the third highest gainer of HNWI population in 2009, driven by high growth in stock market (40%) and real estate prices (15.5%)
Chinese stock market grew over 100%
Chinese economy grew at 8.3%
Singapore stock exchange grew by 81.6%
In-spite of this dramatic growth HNWI population in 2009 was only 79% of the HNWI population in 2007 All nine of these countries surpassed 2007 HNWI population levels HNWI population in Hong Kong and India increased significantly in 2009, after they experienced the highest drop in HNWI population in 2008. Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010; (2) EIU, February 2010; (3) World Federation of Exchanges, 2010; Note: GDP refers to nominal GDP
The global HNWI population still remains concentrated with the top three markets accounting for 53.5% of global HNWIs HNWI Population by Country (k) , 2008 - 2009 53.5% of total worldwide HNWI population (54% in 2008) Australia moved back to 10th position by overtaking Brazil. 2008 Ranks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 12 HNWI growth Rate(%) 2008-2009 16.5% 20.8% 6.4% 31.0% 23.8% 10.8% 17.9% 19.7% 9.2% 34.4% 11.9% 12.5% The top 12 countries by HNWI Population remain the same from 2008, but countries from Asia-Pacific have higher growth rates compared to other regions. Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010
Real GDP Growth Rates (%), 2008-2009 Percent Change (%) North America Latin America Western Europe Asia Pacific Eastern Europe However, China and India avoided the trend with strong GDP growth in both 2008 and 2009. GDP Contracted in the Majority of the Countries in 2009, Highlighting a Strong Economic Interdependence Worldwide Source: Economist Intelligence Unit – April 2010. Real GDP variation over previous year.
Global Market Capitalization Rose Nearly 47% in 2009, and Reached $47.9 Trillion Market Capitalization by Region (USD Trillions), 2002 - 2009 CAGR (’07-’08) (48.6%) CAGR (’08-’09) 47.1% CAGR (’02-’07) 22.7% 63.4 52.2 USD Trillions 47.9 42.9 37.6 Asia Pacific 31.5 32.6 22.8 Europe / Middle East / Africa Americas Global markets lost the last five years of growth in 2008, but they rebounded in 2009 across all regions and recovered nearly three years of growth. Source:World Federation of Exchanges, January 2010
After Reaching Record Highs in 2008, Volatility Levels Plunged Sharply in 2009 Commentary Daily Volatility of DJ World Index a, January 1997 – June 2010
The daily volatility peaked to 1.11% in Oct 1998, during the Russian Financial Crisis (right after the crisis in Asia)
As the tech bubble reached its trough, the daily volatility peaked again, to 1.25%, before dropping back to 0.5% in 2004
During the summer of 2007, the index started an upward trend that skyrocketed in mid-September 2008 to reach 2.56%, more than double the values of previous crises
Volatility levels were at 2.48% at the beginning of 2009, but plunged sharply in 2009 and ended the year at 1.30%
There is a very high correlation between this measure and the Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) VIX index, which is also known as the “fear” index and is based on the implicit volatility in options pricing
Q4 2008 Sept 11, 2001 Asian Debt Crisis June 2010 Tech Bubble Russian Crisis Daily Volatility of DJ World Index (%) Although volatility levels dropped significantly in 2009, they still remain above the highs reached during previous crises over the last decade. Source:Dow Jones World (W1) Index – Daily close values from January 1st, 1997 to June 9th, 2010 a. As calculated by Capgemini
Key Findings – Market Sizing & Growth
In 2009, HNWI population and wealth nearly returned to 2007 levels:
In 2009, the world’s high net worth individual (HNWI) population increased by 17.1% to 10.0m and their wealth increased by18.9% to US$39.0T from 2008 levels.
The Asia-Pacific region caught up with Europe in terms of HNWI population, while the Asia-Pacific HNWI wealth surpassed the HNWI wealth in Europe
Global HNWI population remains highlyconcentrated:
In 2009, the U.S, Japan and Germany still accounted for 53.5% of the world’s HNWI population, down slightly from 2008.
The spillovers from the global financial crisis negatively affected GDP growth in 2009 and governments worldwide stepped up efforts to stimulate economic recovery and boost the financial system
Key drivers of wealth such as Market Capitalization, Commodities, Hedge Funds had a year of strong gains
Going forward a sustained economic recovery remains a cause of concern:
World GDP growth is likely to be positive in 2010-11 and is expected to be led by Asia-Pacific (ex Japan). However, policymakers across the world are working on formulating viable government stimulus exit strategies.
Note: (a) HNWIs hold at least US$1 million in financial assets excluding primary residences, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables (b) Ultra-HNWIs hold at least US$30 million in financial assets excluding primary residences, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables
After 2008, HNWI allocations to cash dropped back to 2007 levels as proportion of their assets held in Fixed Income and Equities rose Breakdown of HNWI Financial Assets (%), 2006 to 2011F Key Points Alternative Investments a
Fixed Income allocations increased as HNWIs continued to place greater emphasis on predictable cash flows:
Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index retuned 9% since December 2008.
The proportion of HNWI assets held in equities in 2009 increased slightly as stock markets across regions rebounded:
Stock markets recovered in most of the countries and global market capitalization rose to $47.9 trillion in 2009 from $32.6 trillion in 2008, a growth of nearly 47%
Allocations to Cash/Deposits decreased as HNWIs preferred investments in Fixed Income and Equities with a view of recouping some of the losses made in 2008
Real Estate b Cash / Deposits Fixed Income Equities By 2011, HNWI allocations to Equities is expected to increase an additional six percentage points as HNWIs regain their risk appetite and confidence in markets. a. Includes structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currency, commodities, private equity, venture capital b. Comprises commercial real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), residential real estate (excluding primary residence), undeveloped property, farmland and other Source:March 2007, April 2008 , March 2009 and March 2010 Capgemini/ Merrill Lynch FA survey; World Federation of Exchanges, March 2010; Bloomberg Businessweek, Money Report, March 2010
Proportion of HNWI assets held in Equities was highest in North America while that held in Real Estate was highest in Asia-Pacific ex. Japan Breakdown of HNWI Financial Assets by Region (%), 2009 Key Points
In North America, equity holdings edged up from 34% of total holdings in 2008 to 36% in 2009 as stock values rose
Asia-Pacific ex. Japan HNWIs increased allocations to Real Estate:
Direct real estate investment in the region jumped 56% y-o-y in the second half of 2009 to an estimated US$25 billion
In Europe equity holdings increased to 26% from 21% in 2008 as stock values rose:
European stock market capitalization grew by 38%
Middle East allocation that traditionally focus on Real-Estate, decreased allocation from 25% in 2008 to 23% as hotspots such as Dubai witnessed a major slump in demand
Alternative Investments a Real Estate b Cash/ Deposits Fixed Income Equities HNWIs from Latin America and Japan were the most conservative, allocating in excess of 52% to Cash/Deposits and Fixed Income, despite rebound in markets. a. Includes structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currency, commodities, private equity, venture capital. b. Comprises commercial real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), residential real estate (excluding primary residence), undeveloped property, farmland and other Source: March 2010 Capgemini/ Merrill Lynch FA survey ; Asia Investment Market View 2H 2009, CBRE Research, Asia, CB Richard Ellis, Accessed March 2010
HNWI geographic allocations to North America and Europe decreased in 2009, while those to Asia-Pacific and Latin America increased Africa Middle East Latin America Asia-Pacific Europe North America Breakdown of HNWI Geographic Asset Allocation (%), 2006 - 2011F Key Points
In 2009, HNWIs increased allocation to emerging markets in search of higher returns and diversification of portfolios:
Allocation to Asia-Pacific increased by 3 percentage points and Latin America increased by 2 percentage points from 2009 to 2011 as the equity markets in these regions grew by 38% and 94% respectively
From 2009 to 2011, allocation to all other regions are expected to remain stable except Asia-Pacific and Europe:
Allocation to Europe is expected to decrease by 3 percentage points
Allocation to Asia-Pacific is expected to increase by 3 percentage points
In 2011, due to the prospects of rapid growth and higher returns, Asia-Pacific is expected to surpass Europe as a HNWI investment destination. Source: March 2007, April 2008, March 2009 and March 2010 Capgemini/ Merrill Lynch FA survey; World Federation of Exchanges, March 2010
Africa Africa Middle East Middle East Latin America Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Europe Europe North America North America By 2011, HNWIs from North America and Europe are expected to decrease allocations to home-region by more than 8 percentage points Breakdown of Predicted HNWI Geographic Allocation by Region (%), 2006 - 2011F Europe North America Key Points Key Points
North American HNWIs are expected to decrease their allocations to home-regions by 8 percentage points:
Allocations to Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase by 5 percentage points in search of higher returns
European HNWIs are expected to decrease their allocations to home-regions by 9 percentage points:
Allocations to Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase by 4 percentage points in search of higher returns
Allocations to North American region is expected to increase by 4 percentage points in search of stable returns
Note: Data for the Middle East not depicted, however trend remains same Source: March 2007, April 2008, March 2009 and March 2010 Capgemini/ Merrill Lynch FA survey
Key Findings – Asset Allocation
Post the financial crisis, HNWIsa slowly reduced their holdings in Cash/Deposits as allocation to Fixed Income increased:
Fixed Income allocation rose to 31% in 2009 from 29% in 2008 as HNWIs exercised some degree of caution and placed greater emphasis on predictable income streams.
Globally, equities accounted for 29% of total HNWI financial assets at the end of 2009, up from 25% a year earlier as many of the world's stock markets recovered sharply.
HNWIs increased their allocations to markets outside their home regions in search of higher returns and geographic diversification of their portfolios:
Europe, with a 6 percentage point growth, had largest the largest increase in allocations to markets outside the home region, while for North America and Asia-Pacific the increase in allocations were 5 and 4 percentage points respectively.
Looking forward to 2011, the trend of geographic distribution of assets is likely to continue while allocations to Equities is expected to increase across regions
Note: a HNWIs hold at least US$1 million in financial assets excluding primary residences, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables
Key Findings – Changes in HNW Investor Psyche Post Crises
While financial markets have rebounded to a degree, HNWI clients have emerged more cautious and conservative manner, yet are much more engaged in their financial affairs after the crises. However their investment decisions are driven much more from emotional than intellectual factors.
Trust has been regained to a degree in advisors and wealth management firms, but a large majority of HNWIs have yet to regain trust in the regulatory bodies that were supposed to be monitoring the markets, which impacts the willingness to invest fully in the markets.
HNWI investment decisions are now being driven much more emotionally than intellectually, with many investors not yet ready to take on the same risk as they did prior to the crises
HNWIs are educating themselves about products, understanding disclosures, and investment risks before conferring with their advisors, and are seeking more specialized advice, greater transparency & simplicity and effective risk management capabilities from their wealth management firms.
Source: Capgemini Research 2010;
While HNWI Clientshaveregained trust in their Advisors and Firms, their trust in Regulatory Bodies and Financial Markets has yet to recover fully Agreement of HNWI Clients ‘Losing Trust’ and Confidence in the Following Entities, 2008 Agreement of HNWI Clients ‘Regaining Trust’ and Confidence in the Following Entities, 2009 32% FinancialAdvisor 59% 47% 16% FinancialAdvisor Wealth Management Firm 29% 56% 17% 48% Wealth Management Firm 23% Financial Markets 36% 67% Financial Markets 47% Regulatory Bodies & Institutions Regulatory Bodies & Institutions 17% 11% 71% 83% Despite the improved trust and confidence in Advisors and Firms, HNWIs have undergone major behavioral changes, which are likely to have long-term implications. Source: Capgemini/Merrill Lynch Client Survey 2010 Note 1) Total for each category may not add to 100% as the percentage of respondents with neutral answers has been excluded Note 2) Survey asked, ‘To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements around your current base of HNWI and Ultra-HNWI clients?’ (Please rate each criterion on a scale of 1-7, 7 being extremely important and 1 being not at all important)
Passion Investments & Philanthropy
HNWI allocation to Luxury Collectibles grew to 30% in 2009, while allocation to Art Collections decreased to 22% HNWI Allocation to Passion Investments (%), 2006-2009 Commentary
Luxury collectibles market rebounded as jets, cars, and yachts saw an increase in demand again, particularly from Asia
The Art market slowly returned to activity with successful art auctions in the latter part of 2009
Allocation to Jewelry, Gems and Watches grew to 23% amidst inflation fears as cash flush HNWI bought more in this category
Allocation to Other Collectibles (Wines, Antiques, Coins, etc.) grew to 14%:
The Fine Wine Exchange, Live-ex 100 index, which tracks the price of 100 of the world’s best investment grade wines rose 15.7% during the whole of 2009
Miscellaneousa Sports Investmentsb Other Collectiblesc Jewelry, Gems & Watches Art Luxury Collectiblesd Pre-crisis a “Miscellaneous” represents club memberships, travel, guns, musical instruments etc. b “Sports Investments” represents sports teams, sailing, race horses, etc. c “Other Collectibles” represents coins, wine, antiques, etc. d “Luxury Collectibles” represents automobiles, boats, jets, etc. eSurvey Question: Please provide a representative PERCENTAGE breakdown of how your HNWI and UHNWI clients allocate their assets across Investments of Passion (IoP) Source: March 2010 Capgemini /Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Financial Advisor Survey; “Car Auctions bring in $122.6 million despite storms, recession” – Peter Corbett, The Arizona Republic, January 26, 2010;
Art and Other Collectibles are most widely considered as another form of financial investment Commentary Categories that HNWIs Considered Another Form of Financial Investments (%), 2009
Art and “Other Collectibles” were the most popular categories which wealthy considered as other forms of financial investment:
Nearly 30% of global HNWI are investing in Art for financial benefits, or as a Financial Asset.
Europeans predominate in this area at 37.4% of HNWI considering Art as a Financial Asset.
North America HNWI more widely consider Other Collectibles such as Wine, Antiques, Coins etc as another form of financial investments.
a. Passion investments include the categories of Luxury Collectibles,Art Collections, Jewelry, Gems and Watches, Sports Investments and others ; b. Survey Question: Which categories among the following are considered by your HNWI clients as another form of investment (with the expectations of higher returns at a future sale)? Source: March 2010 Capgemini /Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Financial Advisor Survey; Robert Frank, “The Wealth Report: Flatt Wine Auction Reaps Nearly $1.2 Million at Sotheby’s”, March 22, 2010; Evelyn Wiese: “How to buy a sports team?” Worth – Grow Wealth Management
Towards the end of 2009, the market for collectibles such as Art, Wine and Luxury cars rebounded with successful auctions in Europe and North America:
While Art still remained a top category for UHNWI, the category overall experienced a slight decrease in allocation from 25% to 22%, as prices for contemporary art dropped in 2009.
Globally, HNWIs increased their allocation to Luxury Collectibles (yachts, cars, jets) by 3 percentage points over 2008.
Art and Other Collectibles emerged as the most popular categories for High Net Worth Individuals investing for financial reasons.
Continuing on the trend witnessed in 2008, HNWI spending on Health and Wellness continued to rise in 2009, while Luxury spending decreased:
In 2009, as HNWIs increased their allocations to philanthropic activities, there was corresponding HNWI demand for Philanthropic offerings from their Wealth Management firms.
Philanthropic giving is expected to grow across nearly all regions by 2010, except for North America, which has a mixed outlook.
Key Findings – Passion Investments and Philanthropy
HNWI spending on Health and Wellness saw a renewed increase in 2009 while that on luxury consumables decreased Commentary HNWIs Lifestyle Spending (%), 2009
Continuing from 2008 trend, the Health and Wellness category (which includes activities such as high-end spa visits, fitness-equipment installations, and preventative medicine procedures) saw a further rise in the HNWI spending in 2009, with N. America and Asians spending the most
Luxury and Experiential Travel saw an increase in spending, with the majority of increase coming from Asia and Latin America
The overall sales of luxury goods globally declined 8% to about $227 billion in 2009, and correspondingly 28% of HNWI indicate they are spending less on the Luxury Consumables (designer bags, clothes, shoes,) category:
While most markets remain cautious, spending on luxury consumables in countries such as China and India is on the rise.
73% Health / Wellness 2% Luxury Experiential travel 45% 23% Luxury Consumables 30% 28% 25% Other Spending 20% a. Total for the chart will not add to 100% due to some % to Neutral choice b. Survey Question: To what extent did your HNWI and UHNWI clients increase their spend on the following lifestyle categories over the last year? Source: March 2010 Capgemini /Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Financial Advisor Survey; Robert Frank, “The Wealth Report: Chinese are the new kings of blings”, October 13, 2009; Matthew Vincent, “FT Wealth: A Return to luxury”, March 25, 2010
In 2009, as HNWIs increased their allocations to philanthropic activities, there was significant demand for Philanthropic offerings Client Demand for Specific Philanthropy Offerings (%), 2009 Regionally, HNWIs from North America and Asia-Pacific expressed the highest demand for “Advice in financial tax planning” 16% 57% Advice on Financial planning and tax 20% 48% Project and Organization Selection 19% 46% Monitoring and impact assessment 22% 43% Setting up a “giving” vehicle 20% 20% Other Philanthropy Offerings Wealth management firms may need to offer specialization around philanthropic offerings by building expertise in-house or leveraging third party ventures. Note: Total for each philanthropic offering in the chart may not add to 100% as the percentage of respondents with Neutral answers have been excluded a. Survey Question: “How strong is HNWI client demand for the following philanthropy offerings? ” Source: March 2010 Capgemini/Merrill Lynch FA Survey