Marek indog prezentace

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  • Although choropleth maps do not show continuously distributed values, they often portray densities

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  • 1. Spatial Statistics of Health Data: Case Study in Olomouc Region, Czech Republic Lukáš MAREKThis presentation is co-financed by theEuropean Social Fund and the statebudget of the Czech Republic
  • 2. Back to the History Naples Kingdom plague map  Filippo Arrieta - 1694 Map of yellow fever in New York  Published by Valentine Seaman - 1798 Map of cholera outbreak in London  John Snow - 1854 First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 3. First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 4. Why Geographical Information Systems? Advanced methods for spatial analyses Spatial statistics Exploration of spatial pattern Visualization and presentation for non-geographers (doctors, specialist) First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 5. Spatial Analyses of Health Data - AOI Disease mapping  Visual description of spatial variability of the disease incidence  Maps of incidence risk, identification of areas with high risk Geographic correlation studies  Analysis of associations among the incidence and environmental factors Analyses of spatial pattern  Exploration of spatial and spatio-temporal patterns in data  Disease clusters, randomness, … First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 6. Data Collaboration with Regional Public Health Service in Olomouc EPIDAT database  Mandatory records about infectious diseases and patients, manually fulfilled  Age, Sex, Date, Profession, Place of residence, infection, isolation, …  2002 – 2011  > 46 000 records  Anonymized Aggregation to the regular fishnet  Hexagons with the size of average cadastral unit First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 7. EpiDatInfection 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 SumSalmonella 2197 1731 1522 1706 1261 803 700 594 515 352 11381Viral IntestinalInfections 139 194 198 197 581 476 535 396 431 689 3836Lyme Borreliosis 226 290 180 229 319 225 274 220 237 303 2503Tick-Borne Encephalitis 16 34 33 28 58 32 24 46 38 54 363Unspecified ViralEncephalitis 0 3 4 4 5 5 1 3 3 2 30Viral Meningitis 12 12 15 31 16 26 16 29 25 20 202Varicella 1930 2247 3341 2865 1973 3529 1904 3057 2623 2910 26379Hepatitis A 5 11 11 12 6 6 152 66 49 50 368Acute Hepatitis B 30 14 22 20 14 6 18 5 4 2 135Parotitis 5 7 1 18 356 126 115 120 227 7 982Sum 4560 4543 5327 5110 4589 5234 3739 4536 4152 4389 46179 First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 8. Software First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 9. Choropleth mapping One of the most common type of map Densities rather than continuously distributed values Visual tool for the analysis of spatial distribution of phenomenon Relative values First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 10. Identification of Spatial Processes Estimation of the nature of phenomenon Plenty of methods  Graphical  Numerical Testing of Complete Spatial Randomness  Or other spatial processes Scale dependency First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 11. Graphical methods Morishita index plot  index of spatial aggregation for a spatial point pattern Fry (Patterson) plot  Scatterplot of the vector differences xj − xi between all pairs of distinct points in the pattern First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 12. Graphical methods Quadrat analysis  Quadrat count  Visual evaluation  Quadrat test  χ2 dispersion test of Complete Spatial Randomness  506 tiles, χ2 = 11065.02, df = 505, p- value < 2.2e-16 First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 13. Graphical methods Ripley‘s K-function  Reduced second moment function  Mean number of points within distance from an arbitrary point  Comparing (testing) to simulated CSR  L-function  Scaled K-function First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 14. Graphical methods Kernel density  Nonparametric statistical method for estimating the probability of a defined event  Intensity of the phenomenon in space  Density map reveals the spatial clusters First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 15. Global and Local Spatial „Clustering“ Exploring of the spatial autocorrelation More location based then attribute – position based Overview of global situation in entire area Moran‘s I, Getis Ord General G, … First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 16. Local analyses E.g. LISA  Local indicators of spatial associations  Position of identified clusters  Statistical significancy  Intensity and type of clustering Local Morans I, Getis-Ord Gi*, Kuldorff‘s scan, Diggle‘s test, … First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 17. Multivariate Clustering Similarity searching in attribute space Classification of areas with related properties of occuring diseases and their parameters Classification of similar cases Without spatial relations First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 18. Problems / Challenges Geocoding Aggregation Neighbourhood estimation Modifiable areal unit problem Probability distribution of the disease occurrence Underlying processes Under / Overestimation of results leading to misinterpretation Age / Population standardization First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 19. Future work Spatio-temporal analysis Bayesian modelling and smoothing Multivariate statistics with spatial relations Neural networks for clustering GWR, GLMM First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc
  • 20. Thank you for your attention First InDOG Doctoral Conference, 29th October - 1st November 2012, Olomouc