The year 2010 saw major economies registering modest growth and India on a balanced growth path. India story gained primacy at the beginning of 2010, with the changing market scenarios across the world.
The outlook is more or less stable across sectors over the
months. The optimism of early 2010 was further
strengthened due to a positive economic outlook, but the
recent political developments marked with scandals have
made an impact on the overall business confidence, albeit
marginal. Employment generation has remained stable and
upbeat in most of the sectors. However, continuous
inflation, price of raw materials and intermediate industrial
products, scams involving ministers and so on have created
some caution in the minds of entrepreneurs. The
movement of skilled workforce within the sector continued
during the 4th Quarter of 2010. The change in
employment across sectors is given in the table below.
The employment scenario during any specific time period
needs to be viewed from the perspective of various
activities and at several fronts, for a considerable period.
This section has presented the estimated employment
numbers with expectations for different sectors of the
Indian economy. It also lists some of the issues that might
have an impact on the employment scenario, either directly
or indirectly. This will help correlate between the trends
observed regarding employment and economic as well as
The BFSI sector is expected to add 116,240
jobs in 2011.
The stable and positive sentiment at the economic front continues
to help the BFSI sector to grow further during the 4th Quarter of
2010. Responses from the BFSI companies indicate that almost
similar condition will prevail during the first two quarters of 2011
as well as for the entire year. The sector is cautiously optimistic
about growth of employment numbers.
The raise of Repo and Reverse Repo rates by RBI on 25th January
2011 has caused an increase of Repo rate by 175 basis points and
Reverse Repo rate by 225 basis points, since March 2010. CRR has
increased by 100 basis points during the same time.
Inflation has remained a cause for concern over the past months
and is expected to continue for a few more months to come.
However, the response to structural causes of inflation needs to be
through reallocation of resources across sectors. Short term
measures like interest rate hikes, though manage to contain
inflation to a moderate level are not strong enough to sustain
The recent RBI report on the Micro Finance sector has
recommended several checks to resolve the issues and improve
transparency. However, observations have also been made
regarding the “Recovery Culture” in the financial sector and its
adverse effects on the customers. This is an important observation
made by RBI, in view of the recent measures taken by the Andhra
Pradesh Government to regulate the recovery of loans from the
small borrowers by the MFIs. However, the drive towards financial
inclusion will certainly play a positive role in employment
generation in this sector.
Bank credit to commercial sector is increasing steadily, which is
one of the major driving forces for the banking sector in the
Insurance sector, both life and general, has witnessed a positive
sentiment in the 4th Quarter as compared to the previous ones
and is expected to do better in coming months.
The Education, Training and Consulting sector
is expected to add 107,500 jobs in 2011.
Education sector continued to contribute significantly to the
employment base of the country during the last Quarter of 2010.
The sector is expected to grow at similar rate during the first
couple of Quarters of 2011. However, the expectation regarding
growth for the entire calendar year of 2011 is slightly lower
compared to the first two Quarters of the year.
The regulatory ambiguity still remains the biggest impediment that
holds back the sector’s transformation into one of country’s