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Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014
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Disasters:Risk & Management_Dr R K Sood, Himachal Institute of Public Administration_August 2014

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What is a disaster and a hazard? Which areas lie in the vulnerability and risk zones in the state of Himachal Pradesh? A look at how the climate change too has added another dimension to this aspect.

What is a disaster and a hazard? Which areas lie in the vulnerability and risk zones in the state of Himachal Pradesh? A look at how the climate change too has added another dimension to this aspect.

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  • Our baseline is not good. Risk is increasing. Superimposed on this trend we face climate change impacts.
    Similarly to current DR, CC will affect the poorest the most because they have the least capacity to adapt.
  • To help align them, TF have developed a FW for integrating DRR & CCA
    Demonstrates much DRR experience, tools, methods & policy FWs are directly transferable to CCA
    Demonstrates (the CCA communities’) climate change prediction tools are needed by DRR practitioners
    DRR and CC communities need to work together to avoid mal-adaptation & ineffective DRR
    Notable Challenges and Opportunities
    CC is the bandwagon, whilst DRR has many of the required tools to adapt
    Need to raise awareness in both communities of the extent - & limits – of synergies
    The increased focus on CC, presents more opportunities for DRR funding, but requires active DRR community engagement in CC policy & processes
    TF have been working for some years to bring the two communities together
  • Mitigation
    Measures taken in advance of a disaster aimed at decreasing or eliminating its impact on society and environment.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Disasters: Risk and Management 08/20/14 By Dr R K Sood, head of Disaster Management Centre, Himachal Institute of Public Administration
    • 2. 08/20/14 Major Disasters in the country : 1990 – 2001 HAZARD PROFILE OF INDIA 58.6% landmass prone to Earthquakes 12% area prone to floods 5700 KMs (out of 7516) is prone to cyclones 68% of the cultivable area is vulnerable to drought FREQUENCY OF EXTREMES Severe Floods - Every Year Severe Droughts - Every 2-3 year Earthquake, Gujarat Jan 2001, 13805 lives lost
    • 3. Top 10 Disasters in India for the period 2001 to 2011 Disaster Date Deaths/Damage Sikkim Earthquake September, 08/20/14 2011 60 people died, 597 injured, 759 schools, 377 medical facilities, 875 Anganwadis and 1255 other Govt. Buildings damaged Leh Flashflood 5/6 August 2010193 dead, 200 missing Kosi Flood, Bihar August, 2008 527 deaths, 19323 livestock perished, 2,22,754 houses damaged, 33,29,423 persons affected Cyclone Nisha, Tamilnadu 2008 204 deaths, $ 800 million worth damages Kashmir Earthquake October, 2005 86,000 deaths Bombay Floods July, 2005 1094 deaths, 167 injured, 54 missing Indian Ocean Tsunami 26-Dec-2004 10749 Deaths (2,30,212), 5640 missing, 2.79 million people affected, 11,827 hectares of crops affected, 3,00,000 fishermen lost their livelihoods Gujarat Earthquake 26-January, 2001 25,000 deaths and 6.3 million affected
    • 4. 08/20/14 Matter of Concern  Disaster-related mortality risk is lower in high development countries than in low development countries.  Inappropriate development is responsible for configuring disaster risk .
    • 5. Comparison of Two Earthquakes Haiti, 12th, january, 2010 • Magnitude 7.0 Mw • 3.16 lakh dead, eaqual no. injured • More than 2.8 lakh buildings damaged • Education system totally collapsed (1300 schools destroyed) • 50 Health facilities destroyed 08/20/14 CHILE, 27th February, 2010 • Magnitude 8.8 Mw (6th largest recorded EQ) • 525 persons killed • Economic loss – US $ 15-30 Billion
    • 6. Geologically Related Disasters Water & Climate Related Disasters Chemical, Industrial & Nuclear Related Disasters Accident Related Disasters Biologically Related Disasters Earthquakes, Landslides, Mudflows, Dam Bursts & Dam Failures Floods, Droughts, Cyclones, Cloud burst, Flash Floods, Avalanches, Heat & Cold Waves Hailstorms Chemical & Industrial Disasters, Forest Fires, Mine Collapse, Nuclear Disasters Road, Rail & Air Accidents, Boat Capsizing, Major Building Collapse, Bomb Blast, Stampedes, Rural & Urban Fires Biological Disasters, Epidemics, Cattle Epidemics Emerging Threats Man and Animal Conflict, Climate Change (GLOF & LDOF) HAZARD THREATS IN HIMACHAL PRADESH
    • 7. CHURCH AT FORSYTHGANJ BEFORE AFTER
    • 8. GURKHA BARRACKS BEFORE AFTER (136 KILLED)
    • 9. KANGRA FORT BEFORE AFTER
    • 10. BHOWAN TEMPLE BEFORE AFTER (2000 KILLED
    • 11. CHARI VILLAGE (150 KILLED)
    • 12. MACLEODGANJ (900 KILLED)
    • 13. KOTWALI
    • 14. Projected Intensity Distribution 08/20/14 100 km
    • 15. 08/20/14 Projected Intensity Distribution : HP
    • 16. 08/20/14 Projected Scenario Earthquake : HP • Estimated Injuries and Loss of Life – Mid-night estimate State Population – Projected Ex-gratia • ~Rs. 700 Crores (Census, 2011) Projected Deaths Projected Injuries Himachal Pradesh 68,56,509 2.3% ~1,60,000 16% ~11,00,000
    • 17. 08/20/14 PPrroojejecctetedd S Scceennaariroio E afortrh HqPuake : HP S No District Population (Census, 2011) % Injured % Deaths 1 Chamba 5,18,844 19.9 2.4 2 Kangra 15,07,223 15.5 2.3 3 Lahul & Spiti 31,528 19.3 2.2 4 Kullu 4,37,474 19.2 2.5 5 Mandi 9,99,518 19.7 2.5 6 Hamirpur 4,54,293 16.1 2.5 7 Una 5,21,057 11.4 2.2 8 Bilaspur 3,82,056 15.0 2.2 9 Solan 5,76,670 10.4 1.8 10 Sirmaur 5,30,164 15.8 2.3 11 Shimla 8,13,384 17.0 2.4 12 Kinnaur 84,298 13.8 2.0 Zone V Zone IV
    • 18. Major Landslides that caused heavy damage in the past Year of Occurrence Location/ Highway Damage to highway First Last NH-22 1988 1995 During the flood, of 1988, 1993 and 1995, 250, 350 and 475 m of the road was washed away. NH-22 km 292-293 1988 1995 During the flood of 1988, 1993 and 1995, 200, 500 and 300 m of the road was washed away. NH-22 km 307 1988 1995 During the flood of 1988, 1993 and 1995,100, 150 and 600 m of the road was washed away. Major Landslides due to flash floods Name of Landslide Year Description Jhakari 1993 Road (NH-22) stretch of about 1/2 km was completely damaged and slide debris blocked the river Sutlej. Traffic restored after two months.
    • 19. GLOF& LDOF THREAT
    • 20. Summary of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and lakes identified as Potentially dangerous in Himachal Pradesh River Basin Glaciers Glacier Lakes Number Area (Sq. Km) Ice Reserves (cu. Km) Number Area (Sq. km) Potentially dangerous Beas 358 758 76.40 59 236.20 5 Ravi 198 235 16.88 17 9.6 1 Chenab 681 1705 187.66 33 3.22 5 Sutlej 945 1218 94.45 40 136.46 3 Sub-basins 372 245 11.96 7 0.18 2 Total 2554 4161 387.35 156 385.22 16 (Source: Ives, JD; Shrestha, RB; Mool, PK (2010) Formation of Glacial lakes in the H-K-H and GLOF Risk Assessment, ICIMOD.)
    • 21. Other Disasters • A human stampede at the temple of Naina Devi occurred on 3 August 2008. 162 people died. • Punjab governor Surendra Nath and nine members of his family were killed when the government's Super-King aircraft crashed into high mountains in bad weather on July 9, 1994 in Himachal Pradesh. • Timber Trail Accident • Road Accidents • Fires – Forest and Domestic • Hailstorms
    • 22. 28 ATTITUDE &understanding • THEORY OF FURY OF GOD • THEORY OF FURY OF NATURE • SCIENTIFIC THEORY
    • 23. Key Elements of a Disaster D=(H+R)*V-C • Disaster result from the combination of hazards, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk.
    • 24. 08/20/14 Hazard • A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
    • 25. 08/20/14 Vulnerability • The characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard.
    • 26. Chirgaon after cloud burst on 11 August 1997, total causalities 124 08/20/14
    • 27. 08/20/14 Cloudburst in Manali, 2011
    • 28. 08/20/14 Cloudburst in Manali, 2011
    • 29. Capturing dimensions of vulnerability and 08/20/14 capacity •The conditions determined by the physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards/development related risks.
    • 30. 08/20/14 Capacity • The combination of all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve agreed goals.
    • 31. 08/20/14 Risk • Risk is the probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, disruption to livelihoods and economic activity, and damage to property or the environment) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. • Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation: Risk = (H X V) / C
    • 32. Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, Location). HAZARD- occurrence of an earthquake of sufficient Magnitude (hence: Intensity at the epicenter) capable of causing damage to the man-made structures. EXPOSURE- Objects and structures built by man which are exposed to the effects of the `hazard‘: buildings, bridges, dams, power plant, life-line structure, etc. VULNERABILITY-Damageability of the `exposure' under the action of the hazard; weaker ones being more vulnerable and `risky' than the stronger ones. LOCATION- (i) How far the `exposure' is situated from the Hazard location the nearer ones being in greater danger than those far away, and (ii) Local site conditions which can modify the hazard and/or affect the stability of the exposure, such as topography, soil deposit, water table, etc.
    • 33. 08/20/14 Resilience • Ability to absorb change • Ability + Self organizing • Ability to Re-organize Source: CCR Handbook Resilience is the ability to withstand damage or to recover quickly from a shock such as a disaster. A high level of resilience allows people, systems and environments to recover quickly, therefore reducing the negative impact of a shock.
    • 34. 08/20/14 Resilience (2) SWARM THEORY ALLIGNMENT COHESION SEPERATION SWARM: On a system level, a swarm is hardly vulnerable System Properties: • High Degree of Redundancy (Individuals) • Flexibility/Robustness • Adaptive Behavior • Responsiveness/Reorganization Organizational Properties: • Decentralized (no central command) • Systems behavior is emergent Slide Ref: William Veerbeek, VIRUS and SOUP
    • 35. When does a HAZARD lead to a Disaster ? The DM Act, 2005 “Disaster” means a catastrophe , mishap, calamity or grave occurrence in any area , arising from natural or manmade causes, or by accident or negligence which results in substantial loss of life or human suffering or damage to, and destruction of , property, or damage to, or degradation of , environment , and is of such nature or magnitude to be beyond the coping capacity of the community of the affected areas;
    • 36. 08/20/14 Disaster • A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
    • 37. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment 2007 Report concludes that the Global Warming is Unequivocal, and that the earth's climate is warming. 08/20/14 The Climate Change Problem: The report also confirms that the current atmospheric concentration of Carbon dioxide and Methane, the two important heat-trapping gases, "exceeds by far the natural range over the last 6,50,000 years."
    • 38. CC Processes, Characteristics & Threats 08/20/14 Source: UNEP/GRID–Arendal, 'Climate change: processes, characteristics and threats', designed by Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID–Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005, <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_processes_characteristics_and_threats>
    • 39. • …climate change will bring a range of impacts that affected populations will not be able to adapt to 08/20/14
    • 40. Number of People Killed(Income Class/Disaster Type) (1975-2000) World Summary 87,414(4.41%) 27,010(1.36%) 520,418(26.25%) 1,347,504(67.98%) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Low Income Low income Lower-middle Lower Middle Income income Upper-middle Upper Middle Income income High income High Income Income Class Number of People Killed('000s) Drought Earthquake Epidemic Flood Slide V olcano Wind storm Others CC impacts: more risk superimposed over increasing-risk pattern… and increasing inequality Source: EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED, Brussels, world data 1900-2004:
    • 41. 08/20/14 Climate Change Adaptation • refers to actions taken to limit the negative impact of climate change on human systems. • This can be defined as “initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects” (IPCC, 2007b). • This includes actions taken to limit the impacts of both the slow trends associated with climate change, such as sea level rise or less predictable rainfall, and adaptation to increased frequency and magnitude of climatic hazards.
    • 42. GENESIS Contd.,  EARLIER CONCEPT – Reactive 4 R Rescue Recovery Relief Rehabilitation  PRESENT CONCEPT - Proactive Planning Prevention Preparedness Response
    • 43. Crunch model 1. Disaster happens only when a hazard affects vulnerable people and these two elements come together. 2. A natural phenomenon by itself is not a disaster; 3. Population maybe vulnerable for many years, yet without the “trigger event”, there is no disaster. 4. Vulnerability - a pressure that is rooted in socio-economic and political processes - is built up and has to be addressed, or released, to reduce the risk of a disaster. These processes may include poverty, age-related discrimination, exclusion or exploitation based on gender, ethnic or religious factors. The outcome will be “safe” as opposed to “unsafe conditions”, 5. Resilient or capable communities” as opposed to “vulnerable communities” and “sustainable livelihoods” as opposed to “unsustainable livelihoods”.
    • 44. • For example, for people living by a river prone to sudden onset flooding: • • “unsafe conditions” may be: poor housing conditions, dangerous location, risky livelihoods, lack of disaster preparedness skills, etc. • • “dynamic pressures” may be: no community organization for collective efforts to reduce flood risks, rapid migration tendencies that change the social structure, the lack of local markets for small farmers to sell their produces or buy agricultural inputs, etc. • • “root causes” may be: government negligence of sand mining in that river, the lack of government policy on flood warning systems and land use planning, poor men and women are not allowed to attend meetings on flood mitigation and emergency response preparedness, etc.
    • 45. Linking DRR & Climate Change Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation
    • 46. Convergence of CCA and DRR (Turnbull 08/20/14 et al., 2013)
    • 47. 08/20/14
    • 48. 08/20/14
    • 49. 108 SERVICE NOEC Early Warning SEOC Nodal Department DEOC Sub Division/ Block CR VDRC Communi ty Victims Communi ty Victims Communi ty Victims Flow of Information: NOEC to Grassroots level
    • 50. The information flow when warning signals are available: Central nodal agency (IMD-CWC) NEOC/NDMA/MHA Chief Secy. /Pr-Secy. Revenue/ SEOC DEOC/Deputy Commissioner/DDMA SDM All nodal Departments ESF BDO / Tehsildar Village Pradhan / Village Disaster Management Committee All nodal Departments All nodal Functionaries All nodal Functionaries
    • 51. Information flow in situation when early warnings are not available: Village Disaster Management Committee/ Panchayat Functionary BDO/Tehsildar SDM/CR DEOC/DDMA SEOC/SEC/SDMA NEOC/NDMA All Concerned All Concerned All Concerned
    • 52. Relief Commissioner / FC Revenue Nodal Department State Emergency Operation Centre (SEOC) SEOC In charge (Special / Additional / Deputy Secretary Revenue) Supporting Staff State Level Committee (SLC) (SDRF) State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) State Executive Committee (SEC) District Emergency Operation Centre Sub Divisional Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) Tehsil/sub-The/Block Emergency Operation Centre (CR) District Disaster Management Authority (Chairman- DC) / RO ncident Commander (ADC/ADM) Sub Divisional Disaster Management Committee/ Incident Response Team (IRT)- SDM Tehsil/ Sub Tehsil /Block/IRT Disaster Management Committee Panchayat level/Village Disaster Response Committee District DM Technical /Advisory Committee(s)
    • 53. 08/20/14
    • 54. IT IS BETTER TO HAVE A PLAN WITHOUT A DISASTER, THAN TO HAVE A DISASTER WITHOUT A PLAN
    • 55. WHY THIS EXERCISE ? To live, To save, progress And to prosper
    • 56. NEED Culture of Prevention & Mitigation Culture of Strategic Thinking Culture of Preparedness Culture of Quick Response

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