Presentation by Yashwant Deshmukh at Saffron Chase Briefing

1,618 views
1,524 views

Published on

Published in: News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,618
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
19
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Presentation by Yashwant Deshmukh at Saffron Chase Briefing

  1. 1. Indian Elections 2009 <ul><li>One step forward, and staying standstill.. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Yashwant Deshmukh </li></ul><ul><li>CVoter Foundation: INDIA </li></ul>
  2. 2. India: just for an idea <ul><li>20 official languages </li></ul><ul><li>More than 100 major and 2000 minor dialects </li></ul><ul><li>28 states and 7 union territories </li></ul><ul><li>543 parliamentary seats </li></ul><ul><li>4145 assembly seats </li></ul>
  3. 3. And the demography.. <ul><li>Add to these a demography that has 7 major religions and a really complex and politically hyperactive caste system comprising more than 3000 social groups. </li></ul><ul><li>This makes India not only the biggest but also the most heterogeneous and demographically diversified democracy in the world. </li></ul>
  4. 4. What all this means… <ul><li>In short; a perfect nightmare for any pollster, to say the least. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Glossary <ul><li>INC – Congress Party (Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Rahul Gandhi) </li></ul><ul><li>BJP – Bharatiya Janata Party (LK Advani, Narendra Modi) </li></ul><ul><li>SP – Samajwadi Party (Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh) </li></ul><ul><li>BSP – Bahujan Samaj Party (Mayawati) </li></ul><ul><li>CPM – Communist Party of India (Marxist) </li></ul><ul><li>LF – Left Front (alliance of left parties) </li></ul><ul><li>UPA – Alliance led by Congress Party </li></ul><ul><li>NDA – Alliance led by BJP </li></ul>
  6. 6. 2004: the results
  7. 7. 2004: the magic numbers
  8. 8. 2009: Why a Congress led government is unlikely to be repeated again this year The previous combination can get a maximum of 235 seats, almost 40 less than the majority mark…
  9. 9. 2009: Why a BJP led government seems unlikely The old NDA combination can get a maximum of 245 seats, almost 30 less than the majority mark…
  10. 10. 2009: where things stand as of today.. Mayawati looks set to take the center-stage…
  11. 11. National Elections: Local Factors <ul><li>National elections: disappearance of the “wave” factor </li></ul><ul><li>State elections: perform or perish </li></ul><ul><li>National issues: leadership and national security </li></ul><ul><li>Anti-incumbency: from top to the bottom </li></ul><ul><li>Split voting phenomenon: new trend </li></ul><ul><li>Macro issues: communalism & terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Micro issues: local development & local candidate </li></ul>
  12. 12. 2009: Scenario 1 BSP leads with inside/outside support of Left+ and outside support of INC
  13. 13. 2009: Scenario 2 BSP leads with outside support of Left+ and outside support of BJP+
  14. 14. 2009: Scenario 3 SP OR NCP lead with inside/outside support of Left+ and outside support of INC or the BJP
  15. 15. 2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult to get… NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..
  16. 16. 2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get… NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..
  17. 17. 2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get… Same rule applies on the INC camp..
  18. 18. This leads to a possible Scenario 4 To keep BJP and BSP away, Congress could agree to this arrangement, where Left could give inside or outside support..
  19. 19. Scenario 4 This could make way for other dark horses..
  20. 20. What does this all mean for Business? As a result of being reliant on the Left parties, you should expect no movement in policies related to economic liberalisation
  21. 21. <ul><li>This also means that next Parliament in India might not complete the full term. The next possible government might very well be a stop-gap arrangement. </li></ul><ul><li>If this happens, then the current elections would be remembered as the semi-final of next grand political polarisation in India. </li></ul><ul><li>If this is the semi-final, then when would be the final, and who would the eventual finalists be? </li></ul>
  22. 22. <ul><li>FINAL. Sometime in 2012. </li></ul>
  23. 23. <ul><li>Thank You. </li></ul>

×