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    Im webinar3 presentation latino vote_final Im webinar3 presentation latino vote_final Presentation Transcript

    • Welcome We thank you for joining us and ask that if you have questions during the presentation please submit those directly to organizer on the right hand side of your screen. The following presentation deck and webinar recording will be available to you immediately following the conclusion of this webinar.The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Cynthia CorzoEditor, Hispanic Market WeeklyCynthia Corzo is editor of Hispanic Market Weekly. In this role,she oversees all of the editorial content in both the weeklynewsletter and on www.hispanicmarketweekly.com. She joinedHispanic Market Weekly in 2002 after 14 years at El NuevoHerald and The Miami Herald.Corzo has successfully established solid relationships withagencies, advertisers and media outlets active in the Hispanicmarket, delivering for Hispanic Market Weekly a steady stream ofscoops, breaking news and solicited content.
    • Webinar Agenda • The Power of The Latino Vote, Cesar M. Melgoza, Geoscape • The Bilingual Electorate & Latino Outreach, Dr. Gary Segura, Latino Decisions • Inside Latino Voters and the Media, Pilar Marrero, La Opinión • Q&AThe Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Presenters
    • 2012 and BeyondThe Power of the Latino VoteActionable insights for public service and business expansionCésar M MelgozaFounder & CEOGeoscapecmelgoza@geoscape.comwww.geoscape.com1-888-211-9353 Access the New Mainstream
    • Overview • American Diversity :: The New Mainstream – The ―Growth-Majority‖. – Who‘s driving economic growth? • Latino Voting Behavior and Party Affiliation. – The ―Latino Voter Lag‖. – Swinging allegiances.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 7
    • Latinos represented 56 percent of America’s population growth between 2000 and 2010 and grew at 9x the rate of non-Latinos.American Cultural DiversityThe Latino Growth Majority
    • Population Change by Ethnicity/Race By 2016, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be nearly 115 million and Hispanics will represent over half of that population. Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Black Asian NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian Multicultural 220 100% Non-Hispanic White population 200 90% drops below 50% of the U.S. population in 2040U.S. Population (in millions) 180 80% 160 70% 140 Percentage 60% 120 Hispanics became the largest ―minority‖ group 50% 100 in 2000 and have 40% 80 continued to surge. 30% 60 40 20% 20 10% 0 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Years Years Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2011 2016 2050 NH Asian & PI 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,717,118 16,518,783 34,952,900 NH Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 38,021,109 39,945,184 52,122,797 Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 51,233,818 58,398,328 133,543,59 4 NH Other 157,198,59 170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086 216,901,24 8 8 Notes: Population of Puerto Rico 179,232,17 in Hispanic population figures. * 2000-2011-2016 numbers for Asian and Black are for312,180,883 2011326,127,959 Total is not included 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 Non-Hispanic; and 2016 Estimates437,520,53 as of July 1 5 9 Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2011 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 9
    • Hispanic Concentration: 1990 Concentration previously in Southwestern states – darkest shade is 50% or greater© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 10
    • Hispanic Concentration: 2016 Concentration spreading towards North and East with significant populations throughout U.S.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 11
    • Hispanics by Age Range Distribution The Hispanic population is younger than the Non-Hispanic population, with a significantly greater proportion of all population cohorts in the under 40 age groups—indicating an oncoming spending wave. Conversely, the retirement age population is predominantly non-Hispanic. About 70% of Hispanics are under 40 compared to 51% of Non-Hispanics whereas more % Hispanic 12.00% than 92% of the retirement-age % Non-Hispanic population is Non-Hispanic. 10.00% Percent Hispanic Population 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-17 18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2011 65-69 70-74 Age Ranges 75+Series.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 12
    • The New Digital Divide Today nearly 2/3 of Hispanics are online, with a heavier skew among the English- speaking, more acculturated population. Hispanics have very high penetration of smartphones for texting, internet browsing,Hispanics are among the most avid social media etc. on a par with Asians and ahead of Whiteusers and are 3x more likely to create online content. 13 and African Americans © Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
    • The changing business andpolitical landscapePowerful Trends for Savvy Politicians
    • Who‘s driving economic growth? Hispanics represent about 12 percent of American households but contribute nearly half of the growth in consumer spending— and with the addition of Asians are responsible for two-thirds of spending growth. The data below are for 2010 and are expected to increase further for 2011. Annual Consumer Spending Growth „09 –‟10© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 15 Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™
    • Which consumer is worth more? Acquiring a household today and retaining it throughout their lifespan will result in very different cumulative revenue due to age, spending and life expectancy. Asian households will spend the most, followed by Hispanics. Each sector varies, often the average spending per household higher even if income is lower. Differences in lifespan result in compelling outcomes in favor of Hispanic and Asian consumers. Lifetime Household Spending 2010+ NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Hispanic Hispanic The continued rapid growth in the Food at Home $161,741 $133,565 $227,231 $261,551 Hispanic population will result in Food at Home and Away $278,321 $217,525 $404,180 $411,335 Personal Care $26,863 $26,247 $34,750 $32,748 an aggregate spending worth Apparel $67,976 $95,098 $109,260 $124,027 that is becoming difficult to Home Furnishings $63,997 $53,347 $87,843 $58,120 ignore—making it more important Transportation $360,334 $302,614 $494,944 $456,903 and strategic for corporations to Entertainment $126,388 $74,689 $199,227 $104,842 shift their investment priorities. Subtotal $1,085,619 $903,085 $1,557,435 $1,449,525 Other $1,086,340 $865,697 $1,537,514 $1,073,610 Total $2,171,959 $1,768,782 $3,094,949 $2,523,135© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 16 Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix.™
    • The Future of Americas Tax Base • America‟s “Golden Era” of economic vitality post WW2 in about 1950 and may be steadily eroding… 100% • Unless significant investment in the Anglo middle-class in the workforce younger workforce members is initiated. • School age population and younger workforce members are disproportionately Hispanic and will increasingly represent the tax-paying public. Latinos in the workforce • Boomers will represent the majority of the retirees, drawing Social Security and Medicare benefits and depending on a vital public works and national security 0% infrastructure. 1950 2050 • The best way to ensure vital tax base is to invest in the ability for Hispanics to acquire high-earning jobs.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Source: Geoscape analysis of department of commerce data 17
    • Congressional District Map Latinos form an increasing proportion of key states and congressional districts throughout the nation. However, to reach reaching par to the overall would require 14 additional U.S. Senators and 47 additional members of the U.S. Congress.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 18
    • Congressional District Map Oddly shaped boundaries are common among congressional districts – the decennial redistricting process is usually very controversial.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 19
    • Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race Due to the Latino population’s youth and the number of non-citizens, the voting eligible population is only about 43 percent – but expected to increase. Eligible Voters as a Share of Total Population for Major Racial and Ethnic Groups, 2010 (Percent) 100 90 20.9 23.3 28.9 80 34.9 1.4 70 4.0 24 60 22.4 Under 18 50 Non Citizen 40 Voting Eligible 77.7 67.1 30 52.7 42.7 20 10 0 Hispanic White Black Asian© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements . 20
    • Eligible Voters by Ethnicity/Race Latinos formed more than 12 Demographic Composition of Voters by Race & Ethnicity, 1988-2008 (% of voters) percent of eligible voters in 2008 and White Black Hispanic Asian as U.S. born Latinos 100 0 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5 reach adult age, this 3.6 3.8 will accelerate 4.7 5.4 90 6 7.4 rapidly. 9.8 9.9 10.6 11.5 11.0 80 12.1 70 60 50 84.9 84.6 82.5 40 80.7 79.2 76.3 30 20 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements . 21
    • Eligible Voters vs. Voters Change in Voter Turnout Rates Among Eligible Voters, 2008 and 2004 (Percent) Voter participation increased 2008 2004 % Change 140 significantly in the last general -1.1 4.9 election – African Americans nearly -0.2 5 percent and Latinos nearly 3 percent more that in 2004. 120 2.7 100 67.2 2.4 63.8 60.3 80 47.2 44.6 60 40 63.6 66.1 65.2 49.9 47.0 20 0 All White Black Hispanic Asian© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from the Current Population Survey, November Supplements . 22
    • Party Affiliation Although most Latinos identify with the Democratic party, alliance with Republicans increased during the GW Bush years – in part due to his ―in- culture outreach‖ to Hispanics. Percent Who Identify With or Lean to a Party 90 Democratic Republican 80 70 25 25 28 23 28 60 50 40 30 58 56 57 55 49 20 10 0 1999 2002 2004* 2006 2007 Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2002-2007 National Surveys of Latinos (*June 2004); and Washington Post/Kaiser© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. Family Foundation/Harvard University, 1999 National Survey on Latinos in America. 23
    • Political Party Affiliation Tendencies• Democrat • Republican – Have tended to push civil rights – More recently have embraced issues and look after Hispanics. disadvantaged groups. – Often for political convenience. – Older acculturated Latinos will – Pro-business, anti-tax sentiment. remember and tend to stay loyal. – Tend to connect on moral/religious – Attract supporters of with social issues. issues such as abortion, gay – Newer migrants will not realize marriage. contributions of democrats to Latino – Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Central progress. Americans tend to affiliate. – Anti-Castro Cuban exiles tend to – Younger groups of all origins who align. grew up more progressive in – Evangelical Christians may convert diverse communities. from democratic party.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 24
    • Party Dynamics Tax the Wealthy Vulnerable Democrat Republicans Base to Switch Republican Republican Vulnerable Base Democrats to SwitchStrong Military Ardent Christians Democrat Civil Rights© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 25
    • Party Affiliation by Hispanicity Party affiliation varies by acculturation level. Unacculturated Latinos are more likely Independent whereas Republicans Latinos tend to be acculturated.© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 26
    • Courting Latinos in 2012Strategic • Latinos ever-increasing voter clout. • Latino allegiances result more and more into a swing-vote. • All parties need to consider addressing Latino issues. • Party affiliation varies by state, country-of-origin and socioeconomic status. • Republican have historically been less attentive to key Latino issues. • Latino sentiment about the current administration has diminished. • Latino ―family values‖ lean republican but economic issues lean democrat. • Latino public is in a strategic position to court both parties.Tactical© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 27
    • 2012 and BeyondThe Power of the Latino VoteActionable insights for public service and business expansionCésar M MelgozaFounder & CEOGeoscapecmelgoza@geoscape.comwww.geoscape.com1-888-211-9353 Access the New Mainstream
    • The Bilingual Electorate• Since 2007, Latino Decisions has completed more than 10,000 interviews with Latino voters• One trend is consistent over and over again: you must engage Latinos in both English and Spanish to be effective• A third of registered voters are predominantly reliant on Spanish Media• Half of all citizens—and a majority of citizens not registered—rely on Spanish media: – Growing the Latino Electorate depends on bilingual appeals www.latinodecisions.com
    • The Bilingual Electorate: TV When you watch television, do you watch Spanish- language stations more often, English-language stations more often, or do you watch both equally? June 2008 March 2010 Sep 10 Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg Spanish mostly 22% 43% 37% 29% Both exactly equal 33% 41% 30% 32% English mostly 45% 13% 32% 39%Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all eligible voters instead of just registered)Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll www.latinodecisions.com
    • The Bilingual Electorate: RadioHow about when you listen to the radio? Reg Non-Reg CitzSpanish mostly 32% 51%Both exactly equal 24% 27%English mostly 44% 12%Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008 www.latinodecisions.com
    • Bilingual Electorate: News Reliability There are a lot of different sources of news and information. When it comes to news and information about the election, which source do you trust the most to deliver the best information? June 2008 March ‘10 Sep ‗10 Reg Non-Reg Citz All Citizens Reg Spanish news 31% 58% 49% 35% Both exactly equal 19% 18% 12% 13% English news 47% 22% 38% 48%Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, June 2008Latino Decisions / NALEO, March 2010, national poll of citizen adults (all eligible voters instead of just registered)Latino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010, national poll www.latinodecisions.com
    • The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!Political party‘s, candidates, and civic groups sometimessend people postcards or flyers in the mail before theelection. Are you more likely to pay attention to these ifthey are in Spanish, in English, or in Spanish andEnglish equally? Nevada ‗08 National ‗10Spanish 19% 20%Bilingual/both 48% 40%English 25% 32%Latino Decisions / NALEO, September 2008 – Latino registered voters in NevadaLatino Decisions / We Are America Alliance, September 2010 – national poll www.latinodecisions.com
    • The Bilingual Electorate: Contact!• Media strategies of both parties must include English and Spanish outreach, and the message is not always the same.• Don‘t believe any polling of registered voters that has less than 30% answering in Spanish.• Exit polls, which typically have only 6-8% of Hispanic interviews in Spanish, are particularly bad. www.latinodecisions.com
    • 2012 Presidential Election:A Question of Turnout, Population Growth, Immigration, and Outreach www.latinodecisions.com
    • The Growing Electoratewww.latinodecisions.com
    • Latino Effect in 2008 and 2010• In 2008, Latino voters were instrumental in several states, sometimes with margins exceeding state margin: – Latinos likely decisive in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Indiana, and Florida: – Yes, North Carolina and Indiana!• In 2010, Latinos saved the day for: – Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn – Colorado Senator Michael Bennett – Nevada Senator Harry Reid• Failure to focus on Latinos costs Alex Sink the FL gubernatorial election. www.latinodecisions.com
    • Overlooked Power• Latino political power in California, Texas and New York is often overlooked because the states are not competitive. But – California is not competitive precisely because of the Latino electorate. Absent Latinos, California elections are a virtual tie, and before Latino mobilization around and after 1994 (Prop 187), California was a largely GOP state in statewide elections. – Latinos are the key to any future competitiveness in Texas. It is for this reason that George W. Bush and, to a lesser extent, Rick Perry avoided racially polarizing legislation that has appeared in California, Colorado, Arizona and elsewhere. – Latinos in New York are heavily Democratic and play a powerful role in NYC politics, particularly Democratic primaries. www.latinodecisions.com
    • Looking Forward to 2012• Latinos will likely comprise approximately 9.5% of the electorate in 2012.• Latinos will be critical voices in shaping outcomes in Southwestern swing states like Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, as well as the ever-pivotal Florida.• Even small Latino populations could be decisive in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa.• GOP strategists believe they must win 40% of the Latino vote to prevail, prompting rumors of Marco Rubio or New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez as the VP selection. www.latinodecisions.com
    • Immigration Matters in 2012• Don‘t listen if either campaign tells you Immigration is not the Latino voting issue.• Our June Poll showed that 53% of all LATINO REGISTERED VOTERS count among their friends or family an undocumented immigrant.• Many (25%) know someone facing immigration enforcement. www.latinodecisions.com
    • Immigration Matters in 2012• This affects the President‘s approval on the matter…• Recent policy shifts must be understood against this background. www.latinodecisions.com
    • Looking Forward to 2012• So key issues among Latinos will be Jobs and Immigration.• Disappointment with the administration more likely to result in abstention than switching.• The President‘s chances with Latino voters will be driven by three factors: – The impact of recent efforts to ameliorate his immigration policy; – The unemployment rate, and perceptions of efforts to improve things; and most importantly – What the GOP nominee says about Latinos and immigrants. Republicans have long been among the most effective Democratic turnout strategies. www.latinodecisions.com
    • Latino Voters: Who are They?The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • The Latino CommunityThru the Eyes of Own Media.The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Key to Latinos Today: The Last 25 Years 1930 1931 1970The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • 1979 1980 1991The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • 1995 1997 1999The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • 2005 2006 2008 2009The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • 2010 TodayThe Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Growth Population by Birthand Immigration. Growth Population by Birth and ImmigrationThe Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Latinos More than Doubled in population in the Last 20 Years.The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • What Exactly is Latino?The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Latinos Care About Immigrants and Immigration Policy. …It’s About Family.The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Latinos are But NotConservative… “That Way.”The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Latino Politicians: What’s Changing…The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Latinos and The American Dream.The Power of The Latino Vote2012 and Beyond.
    • Thank you for joining For questions on this webinar Contact: jacquelynn.carrera@impremedia.comwww.impremedia.com www.latinodecisions.com www.geoscape.com www.hispanicmarketweekly.com http://politicals.entravision.com