Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios
Superiores de Monterrey
Campus Estado de México
Alger Torres Martínez
Carmen Hernández Sánchez
Ángel Guillermo Ortiz García
Yael Alejandro Mendoza Bonilla
Society Economy and Politics
Prof. Miguel Angel Sánchez C.
3RD PERIOD: MIDE
Delivery: April 16th
1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT1980 – TO DATE (2013)
Historically, from 2004 until 2012, Mexico GDP Annual Growth Rate averaged
2.7 Percent reaching a maximum of 7.6 Percent in 2010 and a minimum of -9.6
Percent in 2009. The service sector is 62 percent of total GDP. Retail trade is
16 percent of GDP; transport, and communications (7%) and financial services
with a 6 percent. Industry uses the 18 percent in the sectors of: automobile
industry (4 percent of total GDP) and food industry (3.8 percent). Water and
electricity distribution creates 8 percent. The government fuels 4 percent of the
GDP and the agriculture sector uses 3 percent of the output.
In 1980, Mexico’s GDP reached $637 billion, above India and Canada for the
first time in over 100 years. International economies grew quickly during this
thirty period. Japan with 7.9% per year, and Brazil at 7.5% per year. “China
grew 4.9% per year; in 1956 reached the GDP level it had in 1820. In 1980
Mexico’s GDP was about 70% that of China compared to only 7% in 1930 and
2% in 1820.” (Geo-Mexico)
From 1980 to 2008, Mexico’s GDP increase of 2.7% per year which doubled its
GDP from $637 billion to $1.334 trillion. This growth rate was better than the
one of Japan and western economies. It went behind four large Asian
economies: China, India, South Korea, and Indonesia. In 1980 India’s GDP was
less than that of Mexico, but by 2008 it was doubled. Mexico’s GDP in 2008 of
$1.3 trillion puts it in 11thplace of all the countries.
So we can see that to 1900 from 2008 dramatic changes occurred. Some Asian
countries, especially China, expanded drastically and quickly in recent decades.
Mexico increased its GDP 3.8% per year from $23 billion in 1900 to $1.3 trillion
in 2008. The total GDP of 12 countries (Brazil, Canada, China, France,
Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, UK and USA) was
considerably increased. In this case, Mexico has dramatic changes in 2009, and
1995 due to political and foreign crises.
2. Gross National Product 1980 – TO DATE (2013)
As GNP is part of GDP, it is important to mention the crisis in 1982, which
forced the Mexican government to consider some economic reforms, like
lowering trade tariffs, and encourage foreign investment. Second, the drop in
international oil prices in 1986, which reduced México Gross National Product in
approximately 8%, and this has relation with inflation that rose reaching a peak
on 159%. These reforms included a new monetary policy and the privatization
in public enterprises.
The reforms of Salinas de Gortari reduced inflation, and the NAFTA influenced
GNP, as this is a trade agreement with USA and Canada. Mexican economy
was able to recover, on the other hand, it was helped by USA government with
a credit of $20 billion, in order the economy could improve in the 1990’s.
It is important to mention that environmental factors affected the GNP in 1990,
this problems reduce the size of the country’s Gross National Product by 11%.
3. Interest rate 1980 – TO DATE (2013)
The nominal interest rate went from 46.12% in 1982 to 56.44% in 1983 and the
real interest rate increased from -52.78% to -24.36%.
There also increased the prices of the services provided by the state and tax
revenues, offsetting the decline in revenues from PEMEX that passed from
11.7% to 9.9% of GDP between 1987 and 1988.
Privatization of public sector enterprises. Privatization revenues increased from
0.31% to 0.67% of tax revenues between 1987 and 1988 and reached 14.4% in
In 1990 banks were privatized. Insurance companies were differentiated and
banks created a new regulatory authority for insurance. Also companies could
set their own rates based on actuarial calculations.
The advantage is that a competitive exchange rate is the key to increasing
exports and a crisis-free economic growth and therefore favors the interest of
the country, including the poor.
4. Inflation 1980 – 2013
The inflation rate in Mexico was recorded at 3.55 percent in February of 2013.
Inflation Rate in Mexico is reported by the Banco de Mexico. From 1974 until
2013, Mexico Inflation Rate averaged 27.78 Percent reaching an all-time high of
179.73 Percent in February of 1988 and a minimum of 2.91 Percent in
November of 2005. In Mexico, the most important categories in the CPI basket
are Nonfood Goods (19.7 percent of the total weight); Housing (18.7 percent)
and Other Services (18.4 percent). Food, Beverages and Tobacco account for
14.8 percent and Energy for 9.5 percent. Others include: Education (5.1
percent); Meat and Eggs (4.8 percent) and Fruits and Vegetables (3.7 percent).
The national index tracks 46 large, medium and small cities.
After the debt crisis of 1982, the Mexican peso was devalued by 466% and then
Mexico experienced years of economic stagnation and rising rates of inflation.
In 1987 the inflation rate was as high as 160%. In this situation adopted a
stabilization program to reduce inflation gradually achievement. The December
15, 1987, President Miguel de la Madrid announced the Economic Solidarity
Pact (PSE), an agreement signed by representatives of government, labor,
agricultural sector and the private sector.
This proposed agreement and committed the signatories, to the following:
Fiscal consolidation achieved a fiscal surplus by reducing public
spending and increasing some prices and rates of government
Keep a tight monetary policy by controlling domestic credit bank of
Begin the process of trade liberalization by reducing import tariffs and
elimination of import permits.
Maintaining fixed exchange rate
Granting wage increases according to predetermined percentages,
without exceeding the expected rates of inflation
Inflationary expectations that had been formed by the experience of recent
inflation and lack of confidence in economic policy were imperative to seek
ways by both the demand side and the supply side, which would ensure a
reduction in inflation. Thus, the program described (PSE) incorporate aspects of
demand and supply. The restrictive monetary and fiscal policies act to control
growth in aggregate demand, while trade liberalization policies and exchange
rate would help control costs on the supply side. As you advance in the
implementation of the program will remove the indexation of wages to inflation,
to break this relationship could extend the inflationary process that was trying to
remove. It was agreed that wage increases would be granted by periodic
agreements concluded between sectors of society, but not automatically based
on the inflation rate. Finally, it is important to add that in 1988 began the
process of privatization of state enterprises with the aim of contributing to the
government's fiscal consolidation and increase production efficiency.
The effects of the stabilization program began to show since 1998 when
inflation low at 52%, then 20% in 1989, 30% in 1990, 19% in 1991, 12% in
1992, 8% in 1993 and 7.1% in 1994
5. Stock Market Index
Stocks in Mexico had a negative performance during the last month. Mexico
Stock Market (IPC), declined 724 points or 1.65 percent. From 1988 until 2013,
Mexico Stock Market (IPC) averaged 11949 Index points reaching an all-
timehigh 45913 Index points in January of 2013 and the minimum of 87 Index
points in January of 1988. The Mexican IPC index (Indice de Precios y
Cotizaciones) is a major stock market index which tracks the performance of
leading companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange. The IPC index has a
base value of 0.78 as of October 30, 1978. This page includes a chart with
historical data for Mexico Stock Market (MEXBOL)
The stock market index is a statistic made up by one number that allows
studying all the variations of the values of the actions, which compound this
index in a certain period of time. The most representative companies of the
market are the ones that take part in this index, which means that the stock
market index is the indicator of a concrete market.
Some index, such as the S&P 500, have multiple versions.
6. Unemployment 1980 – 2013
Unemployment rate gives the number of unemployed persons as a percentage
of labor force which is the percentage of number of people employed plus
unemployed. Unemployed workers are those who are not working but they want
to have a job, and have searched for work.
In this graph we can see that the unemployment rate has increased, but
decreased at certain times according to political situations, according to the
INEGI, historically from 1980 to 2013, the unemployment rate has averaged
3.69 percent, reaching peak at 6 percent in May 2009, and the lowest point in
March 1997 to 2.2 percent. Unemployment this year, unemployment fell from
5.42 to 4.85 in February 2013.
It is noteworthy that there were significant events since 1980 that allowed this
unemployment rate down, or to rise, in the 80’s it is shown a deterioration of
Mexico production, and increase in employment rates for women. The crisis in
this year affected the agricultural industry and the minimum wage furthermore,
the available employment, as GDP falls 10 points.
From 1990 to 1994 Mexico performs the economic adjustment period,
influenced by the situation of several countries, for Mexico this meant an
increase of jobs and a stopped the fall in the minimum wage after the minimum
was reached in 1991, industry wages increased by 2.4 percent. Besides the
influence of NAFTA in the next decade, where the economy was improved, but
employment decreased. (GDP growth does not increase employment.)
In 1995, economic growth slowed and reducedindustrial wages, employment
had more generators of employment by private companies. Since 1996,
unemployment is around 2.2% as the government offered the creation of small
businesses and small informal businesses. In the first decade of the century,
the informality and unemployment grew in the economy. Then, from 2002 to
2009 there was increased by the global financial crisis.
Between 2004 and 2008 employment grew by an increase in Gross Domestic
Product, but with the economic crisis of 2010, the employment rate was
accentuated. Formal employment (industry, business) and has become informal
because workers no longer have benefits. It is noted that according to INEGI
actually informal or casual jobs, and independent jobs, are abundant.
7. Exchange rate
The exchange rate for dollars from 1972 to 2013, the maximum average was of
15.53 in March of 2009, and the minimum was of .01 in 1972. The historical
average is of 7.78 USDMXN (One dollar worth –x- pesos). We can see that in
the last year’s exchange rate has been oscillating between 13 and 14 pesos per
From 1978 to 1982 Mexico experienced higher rates of inflation than USA, but
they also maintained a fixed exchange rate. The peso had a period of enhanced
buying power in USA market and increased numbers, so USA started to accept
pesos rather than dollars, because the value of the peso increased in relation to
the dollar, USA goods were attractive to Mexican buyers due to the price in
dollars. A devaluation occurred in February 1982 with a 30%. With this, it was
not possible to resolve the obligations with foreign creditors. In July, the peso
was devalued by 75%.
In the following years the exchange rate of Mexican Peso depreciated
Actually, the Mexican Peso exchange rate for March 2013, averaged 12.50
MXN to USD, lower than in February 2013, with 12.70. The fall in the MXNUSB
gives us the fact in which a weakening of the US dollar against the Mexican
Peso happened. The average Mexican Peso in the last 12 months was 13.06,
over the last 10 years was 11.81. This says that the long term trend in MXN,
USD is up.
Anormal person request for a credit in the bank to buy a good or service (that
good or service is produced by the GDP in Mexico). The moneylender gives the
money and charges an extra amount that is the interest rate, if that person pays
on time he has no problems with their credit,
But if that person does not pay interest and besides all become unemployed,
that money with interest will never be returned, so there will be no money and
begin to be layoffs at the company where the money was missing and even the
stock market will be affected by the global economy. This is considered a
If the GDP and GNP increase, there is less unemployment, if inflation rate
increases, there is less inversion due to the high interest rate, so there is less
production and more unemployment. If there is employment, plus better wage,
the interest rate decreases and people request for credit at the banks, so the
economy improves and demand increases. Businesses would have a big
demand of products and it has to hire more people.
Anonymous. Economipedia. 22 February 2012.
http://www.economipedia.com/2012/02/indice-bursatil.html. 27 de
February de 2013.
Barrios, Luis. La eterna historia de las recurrentes crisis económicas en
México. 14 January 2009. http://www.militante.org/node/628. 06 de
April de 2013.
Duarte, Ricardo. México Inflation Rate. 03 March 2012.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/inflation-cpi. 06 de April de
Economics, Trading. MEXICO STOCK MARKET (IPC).
2012http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/stock-market. 06 de April
Hernández, Esther Figueroa. "ANÁLISIS DEL DESEMPLEO, LA
MIGRACIÓN Y LA POBREZA EN MÉXICOANÁLISIS DEL
DESEMPLEO, LA MIGRACIÓN Y LA POBREZA EN MÉXICO." Revista
Mexicana de Agro Negocios. Versión PDF. Web. 6 Apr. 2013.
INEGI. " Mexico Unemployment Rate." TRADING ECONOMICS |
300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES. Web. 6 Apr. 2013.
Index Mundi. "Mexico Unemployment rate - Economy." Index Mundi -
Country Facts. Web. 6 Apr. 2013.
Nápoles, Pablo Ruiz. "Recent evolution of Mexico´s employment and
unemployment." UNAM. 9 Sept. 2011. Web. 6 Apr. 2013.
Trading Economics. " Indicators for MEXICO." TRADING
ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES. Web. 6
Apr. 2013. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/indicators
“Mexican Peso." TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS
FROM 196 COUNTRIES. Web. 16 Apr. 2013.
Harrell, Louis. "BLS.GOV." The 1982 Mexican peso devaluation and
border area employment. Web. 15 Apr. 2013.
Chinese University of Hong Kong. "Historical Exchange Rate Regime of
Asian Countries." International Economics. Web. 15 Apr. 2013.
"Mexico’s position among the world’s largest economies: 1900 to 2008
» Geo-Mexico, the geography of Mexico. Web. 16 Apr. 2013. <http://geo-
Stacy, Lee. Mexico and the United States. Marshal Cavendish, 2002.
MIDE. ECONOMY. 2013. March 2th, 2013 <http://www.mide.org.mx/ >.
BANXICO, "Preguntas frecuentes de política monetaria, dudas, Banco
de México. “Banco de México. Web. 2 Mar. 2013.
Index Mundi. "Mexico - Gross national income." Index Mundi - Country
Facts. Web. 16 Apr. 2013.